Body mass index, hormone replacement therapy, and endometrial cancer risk: a meta-analysis

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships. Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction ¼ 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P ¼ 0.34) or histologic type (P ¼ 0.26). Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association. Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30.

Morphological integration between the cranial base and the face in children and adults

The primary aim of the present study was to assess morphological covariation between the face and the basicranium (midline and lateral), and to evaluate patterns of integration at two specific developmental stages. A group of 71 children (6-10 years) was compared with a group of 71 adults (20-35 years). Lateral cephalometric radiographs were digitized and a total of 28 landmarks were placed on three areas; the midline cranial base, the lateral cranial base and the face. Geometric morphometric methods were applied and partial least squares analysis was used to evaluate correlation between the three shape blocks. Morphological integration was tested both with and without removing the effect of allometry. In children, mainly the midline and, to a lesser extent, the lateral cranial base were moderately correlated to the face. In adults, the correlation between the face and the midline cranial base, which ceases development earlier than the lateral base, was reduced. However, the lateral cranial base retained and even strengthened its correlation to the face. This suggests that the duration of common developmental timing is an important factor that influences integration between craniofacial structures. However, despite the apparent switch of primary roles between the cranial bases during development, the patterns of integration remained stable, thereby supporting the role of genetics over function in the establishment and development of craniofacial shape.

Investigation of different apple cultivars by high resolution magic angle spinning NMR. A feasibility study

(1)H HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy was applied to apple tissue samples deriving from 3 different cultivars. The NMR data were statistically evaluated by analysis of variance (ANOVA), principal component analysis (PCA), and partial least-squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). The intra-apple variability of the compounds was found to be significantly lower than the inter-apple variability within one cultivar. A clear separation of the three different apple cultivars could be obtained by multivariate analysis. Direct comparison of the NMR spectra obtained from apple tissue (with HR-MAS) and juice (with liquid-state HR NMR) showed distinct differences in some metabolites, which are probably due to changes induced by juice preparation. This preliminary study demonstrates the feasibility of (1)H HR-MAS NMR in combination with multivariate analysis as a tool for future chemometric studies applied to intact fruit tissues, e.g. for investigating compositional changes due to physiological disorders, specific growth or storage conditions.

Exploring High-resolution Magic Angle Spinning (HR-MAS) NMR Spectroscopy for Metabonomic Analysis of Apples

Classical liquid-state high-resolution (HR) NMR spectroscopy has proved a powerful tool in the metabonomic analysis of liquid food samples like fruit juices. In this paper the application of (1)H high-resolution magic angle spinning (HR-MAS) NMR spectroscopy to apple tissue is presented probing its potential for metabonomic studies. The (1)H HR-MAS NMR spectra are discussed in terms of the chemical composition of apple tissue and compared to liquid-state NMR spectra of apple juice. Differences indicate that specific metabolic changes are induced by juice preparation. The feasibility of HR-MAS NMR-based multivariate analysis is demonstrated by a study distinguishing three different apple cultivars by principal component analysis (PCA). Preliminary results are shown from subsequent studies comparing three different cultivation methods by means of PCA and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) of the HR-MAS NMR data. The compounds responsible for discriminating organically grown apples are discussed. Finally, an outlook of our ongoing work is given including a longitudinal study on apples.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Radiation metabolomics. 1. Identification of minimally invasive urine biomarkers for gamma-radiation exposure in mice

Gamma-radiation exposure has both short- and long-term adverse health effects. The threat of modern terrorism places human populations at risk for radiological exposures, yet current medical countermeasures to radiation exposure are limited. Here we describe metabolomics for gamma-radiation biodosimetry in a mouse model. Mice were gamma-irradiated at doses of 0, 3 and 8 Gy (2.57 Gy/min), and urine samples collected over the first 24 h after exposure were analyzed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-TOFMS). Multivariate data were analyzed by orthogonal partial least squares (OPLS). Both 3- and 8-Gy exposures yielded distinct urine metabolomic phenotypes. The top 22 ions for 3 and 8 Gy were analyzed further, including tandem mass spectrometric comparison with authentic standards, revealing that N-hexanoylglycine and beta-thymidine are urinary biomarkers of exposure to 3 and 8 Gy, 3-hydroxy-2-methylbenzoic acid 3-O-sulfate is elevated in urine of mice exposed to 3 but not 8 Gy, and taurine is elevated after 8 but not 3 Gy. Gene Expression Dynamics Inspector (GEDI) self-organizing maps showed clear dose-response relationships for subsets of the urine metabolome. This approach is useful for identifying mice exposed to gamma radiation and for developing metabolomic strategies for noninvasive radiation biodosimetry in humans.

The Impact of Job Characteristics on Social and Human Service Workers

The work environment characteristics of job stress, job variety, job autonomy, and supervision are theorized to affect the job satisfaction and organizational commitment of social and human service workers. Most research to date has focused upon the impact of these variables on job satisfaction, with little attention being paid to organizational commitment. To determine the effects these characteristics have on both job satisfaction and organizational commitment, data from a survey of social and human service employees across Northwest Ohio were examined. In Ordinary Least Squares regression, all four job characteristics had a significant impact on job satisfaction, while only job variety and supervision had statistically significant effects on organizational commitment.

Faking or Convincing: Why Do Some Advertising Campaigns Win Creativity Awards?

Since the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was passed in 2002, it has become commonplace in the advertising industry to use creativity-award-show prizes instead of gross income figures to attract new customers. Therefore, achieving a top creativity ranking and winning creativity awards have become high priorities in the advertising industry. Agencies and marketers have always wondered what elements in the advertising creation process would lead to the winning of creativity awards. Although this debate has been dominated by pure speculation about the success of different routines, approaches and strategies in winning creativity awards, for the first time our study delivers an empirical insight into the key drivers of creativity award success. We investigate what strategies and which elements of an advertising campaign are truly likely to lead to winning the maximum number of creativity awards. Using a sample of 108 campaigns, we identify factors that influence campaign success at international advertising award shows. We identify innovativeness and the integration of multiple channels as the key drivers of creativity award success. In contrast to industry beliefs, meaningful or personally connecting approaches do not seem to generate a significant benefit in terms of winning creativity awards. Finally, our data suggest that the use of so-called “fake campaigns” to win more creativity awards does not prove to be effective.

Impact of different cultivation methods on the metabolic profile of apples studied by 1H HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy

The cultivation of dessert apples has to meet the consumer's increasing demand for high fruit quality and a sustainable mostly residue-free production while ensuring a competitive agricultural productivity. It is therefore of great interest to know the impact of different cultivation methods on the fruit quality and the chemical composition, respectively. Previous studies have demonstrated the feasibility of High Resolution Magic Angle Spinning (HR-MAS) NMR spectroscopy directly performed on apple tissue as analytical tool for metabonomic studies. In this study, HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy is applied to apple tissue to analyze the metabolic profiles of apples grown under 3 different cultivation methods. Golden Delicious apples were grown applying organic (Bio), integrated (IP) and low-input (LI) plant protection strategies. A total of 70 1H HR-MAS NMR spectra were analyzed by means of principle component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). Apples derived from Bio-production could be well separated from the two other cultivation methods applying both, PCA and PLS-DA. Apples obtained from integrated (IP) and low-input (LI) production discriminated when taking the third PLS-component into account. The identified chemical composition and the compounds responsible for the separation, i.e. the PLS-loadings, are discussed. The results are compared with fruit quality parameters assessed by conventional methods. The present study demonstrates the potential of HR-MAS NMR spectroscopy of fruit tissue as analytical tool for finding markers for specific fruit production conditions like the cultivation method.

An empirical examination of relative profitability in the nursing facility industry between ownership form and regionality in the state of Texas

The purpose of this research is to examine the relative profitability of the firm within the nursing facility industry in Texas. An examination is made of the variables expected to affect profitability and of importance to the design and implementation of regulatory policy. To facilitate this inquiry, specific questions addressed are: (1) Do differences in ownership form affect profitability (defined as operating income before fixed costs)? (2) What impact does regional location have on profitability? (3) Do patient case-mix and access to care by Medicaid patients differ between proprietary and non-profit firms and facilities located in urban versus rural regions, and what association exists between these variables and profitability? (4) Are economies of scale present in the nursing home industry? (5) Do nursing facilities operate in a competitive output market characterized by the inability of a single firm to exhibit influence over market price?^ Prior studies have principally employed a cost function to assess efficiency differences between classifications of nursing facilities. The inherent weakness in this approach is that it only considers technical efficiency. Not both technical and price efficiency which are the two components of overall economic efficiency. One firm is more technically efficient compared to another if it is able to produce a given quantity of output at the least possible costs. Price efficiency means that scarce resources are being directed towards their most valued use. Assuming similar prices in both input and output markets, differences in overall economic efficiency between firm classes are assessed through profitability, hence a profit function.^ Using the framework of the profit function, data from 1990 Medicaid Costs Reports for Texas, and the analytic technique of Ordinary Least Squares Regression, the findings of the study indicated (1) similar profitability between nursing facilities organized as for-profit versus non-profit and located in urban versus rural regions, (2) an inverse association between both payor-mix and patient case-mix with profitability, (3) strong evidence for the presence of scale economies, and (4) existence of a competitive market structure. The paper concludes with implications regarding reimbursement methodology and construction moratorium policies in Texas. ^

Home care service utilization in British Columbia: Substitute or complement to acute care?

The desire to promote efficient allocation of health resources and effective patient care has focused attention on home care as an alternative to acute hospital service. in particular, clinical home care is suggested as a substitute for the final days of hospital stay. This dissertation evaluates the relationship between hospital and home care services for residents of British Columbia, Canada beginning in 1993/94 using data from the British Columbia Linked Health database. ^ Lengths of stay for patients referred to home care following hospital discharge are compared to those for patients not referred to home care. Ordinary least squares regression analysis adjusts for age, gender, admission severity, comorbidity, complications, income, and other patient, physician, and hospital characteristics. Home care clients tend to have longer stays in hospital than patients not referred to home care (β = 2.54, p = 0.0001). Longer hospital stays are evident for all home care client groups as well as both older and younger patients. Sensitivity analysis for referral time to direct care and extreme lengths of stay are consistent with these findings. Two stage regression analysis indicates that selection bias is not significant.^ Patients referred to clinical home care also have different health service utilization following discharge compared to patients not referred to home care. Home care nursing clients use more medical services to complement home care. Rehabilitation clients initially substitute home care for physiotherapy services but later are more likely to be admitted to residential care. All home care clients are more likely to be readmitted to hospital during the one year follow-up period. There is also a strong complementary association between direct care referral and homemaker support. Rehabilitation clients have a greater risk of dying during the year following discharge. ^ These results suggest that home care is currently used as a complement rather than a substitute for some acute health services. Organizational and resource issues may contribute to the longer stays by home care clients. Program planning and policies are required if home care is to provide an effective substitute for acute hospital days. ^

A Time-based Passive Source Localization System for Narrow-band Signal

Time-based indoor localization has been investigated for several years but the accuracy of existing solutions is limited by several factors, e.g., imperfect synchronization, signal bandwidth and indoor environment. In this paper, we compare two time-based localization algorithms for narrow-band signals, i.e., multilateration and fingerprinting. First, we develop a new Linear Least Square (LLS) algorithm for Differential Time Difference Of Arrival (DTDOA). Second, fingerprinting is among the most successful approaches used for indoor localization and typically relies on the collection of measurements on signal strength over the area of interest. We propose an alternative by constructing fingerprints of fine-grained time information of the radio signal. We offer comprehensive analytical discussions on the feasibility of the approaches, which are backed up by evaluations in a software defined radio based IEEE 802.15.4 testbed. Our work contributes to research on localization with narrow-band signals. The results show that our proposed DTDOA-based LLS algorithm obviously improves the localization accuracy compared to traditional TDOA-based LLS algorithm but the accuracy is still limited because of the complex indoor environment. Furthermore, we show that time-based fingerprinting is a promising alternative to power-based fingerprinting.

Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages

Linear- and unimodal-based inference models for mean summer temperatures (partial least squares, weighted averaging, and weighted averaging partial least squares models) were applied to a high-resolution pollen and cladoceran stratigraphy from Gerzensee, Switzerland. The time-window of investigation included the Allerød, the Younger Dryas, and the Preboreal. Characteristic major and minor oscillations in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, such as the Gerzensee oscillation, the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, and the Preboreal oscillation, were identified by isotope analysis of bulk-sediment carbonates of the same core and were used as independent indicators for hemispheric or global scale climatic change. In general, the pollen-inferred mean summer temperature reconstruction using all three inference models follows the oxygen-isotope curve more closely than the cladoceran curve. The cladoceran-inferred reconstruction suggests generally warmer summers than the pollen-based reconstructions, which may be an effect of terrestrial vegetation not being in equilibrium with climate due to migrational lags during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. Allerød summer temperatures range between 11 and 12°C based on pollen, whereas the cladoceran-inferred temperatures lie between 11 and 13°C. Pollen and cladocera-inferred reconstructions both suggest a drop to 9–10°C at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition lasted 150–160 years in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, the pollen-inferred cooling took 180–190 years and the cladoceran-inferred cooling lasted 250–260 years. The pollen-inferred summer temperature rise to 11.5–12°C at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Preboreal preceded the oxygen-isotope signal by several decades, whereas the cladoceran-inferred warming lagged. Major discrepancies between the pollen- and cladoceran-inference models are observed for the Preboreal, where the cladoceran-inference model suggests mean summer temperatures of up to 14–15°C. Both pollen- and cladoceran-inferred reconstructions suggest a cooling that may be related to the Gerzensee oscillation, but there is no evidence for a cooling synchronous with the Preboreal oscillation as recorded in the oxygen-isotope record. For the Gerzensee oscillation the inferred cooling was ca. 1 and 0.5°C based on pollen and cladocera, respectively, which lies well within the inherent prediction errors of the inference models.

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 μg TP l-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log10 TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r2, as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.