Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Vänner, kolleger och gynnare : Namngivningen av de finska fästningsverken under Augustin Ehrensvärds tid

Under 1700-talets andra hälft hörde Sveriges nya fästningar i öst (Helsingfors, Sveaborg, Lovisa och Svartholm) till rikets största satsningar. Fästningsprojektet leddes med undantag av ett par avbrott av Augustin Ehrensvärd (1710 1772). När arbetet tog fart namngavs de enskilda fästningsverken i så gott som alla fall efter samtida personer. Under Ehrensvärds tid tillämpades denna namngivning på omkring femtio av Sveaborgs och Helsingfors fästningsverk samt på Lovisas och Svartholms totalt aderton verk. Genom personerna de knöts till berättar namnen en hel del om Augustin Ehrensvärds samtid och omvärld. Hur de gjorde det är denna avhandlings huvudfråga. Källmaterialet utgörs av relationsritningar och brev, medan de teoretiska ramarna står att finna i nätverksteori och onomastiska teorier om namnmönster. Ehrensvärd förklarade sin namngivningspraxis för sin överordnade, tronföljaren Adolf Fredrik, 1749 i samband med att Gustavssvärd med fästningsverk namngavs: tanken var att namnge bastioner efter de som bidragit till arbetets framgång och att namnge utanverk efter officerare vid fästningsbygget. Innebörden av Ehrensvärds ord framgår ur namnbeståndet. De största grupperna består av ämbetsmän och militärer. Med de som bidragit till arbetets framgång avsågs sålunda den lokala eliten: landshövdingar som involverats i fästningsbygget samt högre och lägre militärer som tjänstgjorde vid fästningarna. Redan från början syns en klar hierarki i namngivningen. Medan landshövdingarna och de högre militärerna tillägnades bastioner, fick de lägre officerarna se mindre fästningsverk namngivna efter sig, helt i enlighet med Ehrensvärds egen beskrivning. Utanför de ovan nämnda grupperna, hedrades en hel del personer som inte konkret hade engagerats i fästningsbygget. Denna namngivning kan förklaras å ena sidan inom ramen för Ehrensvärds sociala nätverk och å andra sidan mot bakgrund av riksdagspolitiken i frihetstidens Sverige. Av de två förklaringsmodeller bör Ehrensvärds personliga vänskaper ses som en bidragande orsak, medan de politiska motiven utgjorde en avgörande orsak. Som en del av Ehrensvärds nätverk kan de gynnare ses som hade stöttat Ehrensvärd under hans karriär samt hans närmaste medarbetare vid fästningsbygget, ofta officerer han själv handplockat. Namngivningens politiska aspekt syns i det stora antalet riksråd som tillägandes bastionnamn. Vid sidan om riksråden hedrades också talmän vid de samtida riksdagarna. En komparativ studie i namngivningen av fästningsverk vid samtida och äldre svenska fästningar framhäver Ehrensvärd som en innovativ namngivare. Fästningsverk namngivna efter kungligheter verkar ha varit en norm, som också Ehrensvärd anknöt till genom ett fåtal namn. Däremot var namn efter personer inte vanliga, vilket gav den Ehrensvärdska namngivningen en förhållandevis stark anknytning till samtiden. Denna aspekt bekräftas om namnen ses mot bakgrund av 1700-talets uppfattning om ära och äregirighetens samhälleliga nytta. I denna uppfattning syns bakgrunden till förekomsten av personer med både hög och låg status i Ehrensvärds namngivning. Sammanfattningsvis speglar namnen på de finska fästningsverken sin samtid genom den byråkratiska, militära och politiska elit de representerar samt genom motiveringen till dem.

Digital Deadbeat Control Tuning for dc-dc Converters Using Error Correlation

This letter proposes a simple tuning algorithm for digital deadbeat control based on error correlation. By injecting a square-wave reference input and calculating the correlation of the control error, a gain correction for deadbeat control is obtained. The proposed solution is simple, it requires a short tuning time, and it is suitable for different DC-DC converter topologies. Simulation and experimental results on synchronous buck converters confirm the properties of the proposed tuning algorithm.

The role of surface texture on friction and transfer layer formation during repeated sliding of Al-4Mg against steel

In the present investigation, various kinds of textures, namely, unidirectional, 8-ground, and random were attained on the die surfaces. Roughness of the textures was varied using different grits of emery papers or polishing powders. Then pins made of Al-4Mg alloys were slid against steel plates at various numbers of cycles, namely, 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 using pin-on-plate reciprocating sliding tester. Tests were conducted at a sliding velocity of 2 minis in ambient conditions under both dry and lubricated conditions. A constant normal load of 35 N was applied in the tests. The morphologies of the worn surfaces of the pins and the formation of transfer layer on the counter surfaces were observed using a scanning electron microscope. Surface roughness parameters of the plates were measured using an optical profilometer. In the experiments, it was observed that the coefficient of friction and formation of the transfer layer depend on the die surface textures under both dry and lubricated conditions. More specifically, the coefficient of friction decreases for unidirectional and 8-ground surfaces while for random surfaces it increases with number of cycles. However, the coefficient of friction is highest for the sliding perpendicular to the unidirectional textures and least for the random textures under both dry and lubricated conditions. The difference in friction values between these two surfaces decreases with increasing number of cycles. The variation in the coefficient of friction under both dry and lubrication conditions is attributed to the change in texture of the surfaces during sliding. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar Regions

An updated catalog of earthquakes has been prepared for the Andaman-Nicobar and adjoining regions. The catalog was homogenized to a unified magnitude scale, and declustering of the catalog was performed to remove aftershocks and foreshocks. Eleven regional source zones were identified in the study area to account for local variability in seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters were estimated for each of these source zones, and the seismic hazard evaluation of the Andaman-Nicobar region has been performed using different source models and attenuation relations. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation relationships). The hazard maps for different periods have been produced for horizontal ground motion on the bedrock level.

Metabolites of PPI-2458, a selective, irreversible inhibitor of methionine aminopeptidase-2: structure determination and In vivo activity

The natural product fumagillin exhibits potent antiproliferative and antiangiogenic properties. The semisynthetic analog PPI-2458, (3R,4S,5S,6R)-5-methoxy-4-(2R,3R)-2-methyl-3-(3-methylbut-2-enyl) oxiran-2-yl]-1-oxaspiro2.5]octan-6-yl] N-(2R)-1-amino-3-methyl-1-oxobutan-2-yl]carbamate, demonstrates rapid inactivation of its molecular target, methionine aminopeptidase-2 (MetAP2), and good efficacy in several rodent models of cancer and inflammation with oral dosing despite low apparent oral bioavailability. To probe the basis of its in vivo efficacy, the metabolism of PPI-2458 was studied in detail. Reaction phenotyping identified CYP3A4/5 as the major source of metabolism in humans. Six metabolites were isolated from liver microsomes and characterized by mass spectrometry and nuclear resonance spectroscopy, and their structures were confirmed by chemical synthesis. The synthetic metabolites showed correlated inhibition of MetAP2 enzymatic activity and vascular endothelial cell growth. In an ex vivo experiment, MetAP2 inhibition in white blood cells, thymus, and lymph nodes in rats after single dosing with PPI-2458 and the isolated metabolites was found to correlate with the in vitro activity of the individual species. In a phase 1 clinical study, PPI-2458 was administered to patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. At 15 mg administered orally every other day, MetAP2 in whole blood was 80% inactivated for up to 48 hours, although the exposure of the parent compound was only similar to 10% that of the summed cytochrome P450 metabolites. Taken together, the data confirm the participation of active metabolites in the in vivo efficacy of PPI-2458. The structures define a metabolic pathway for PPI-2458 that is distinct from that of TNP-470 ((3R, 4S, 5S, 6R)-5-methoxy-4-(2R, 3R)-2-methyl-3-(3-methylbut-2-enyl)oxiran-2-yl]-1-oxaspiro2.5]octan-6 -yl] N-(2-chloroacetyl)carbamate). The high level of MetAP2 inhibition achieved in vivo supports the value of fumagillin-derived therapeutics for angiogenic diseases.

Slow Slip Acceleration beneath Andaman Islands Triggered by the 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquakes

The M-w 8.6 and 8.2 strike-slip earthquakes that struck the northeast Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 resulted in coseismic deformation both at near and distant sites. The slip distribution, deduced using seismic-wave analysis for the orthogonal faults that ruptured during these earthquakes, is sufficient to predict the coseismic displacements at the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, such as NTUS, PALK, and CUSV, but fall short at four continuous sites in the Andaman Islands region. Slip modeling, for times prior to the events, suggests that the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the Andaman Islands has been slipping at least at the rate of 40 cm/yr, in response to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman coseismic stress change. Modeling of GPS displacements suggests that the en echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 2012 intraplate oceanic earthquakes could have possibly accelerated the ongoing slow slip, along the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the islands with a month-long slip of 4-10 cm. The misfit to the coseismic GPS displacements along the Andaman Islands could be improved with a better source model, assuming that no local process contributed to this anomaly.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

The 2014 M-w 6.1 Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean, Earthquake: A Possible Association with the 85 degrees E Ridge

Oceanic intraplate earthquakes are known to occur either on active ridge-transform structures or by reactivation of their inactive counterparts, generally referred to as fossil ridges or transforms. The Indian Ocean, one of the most active oceanic intraplate regions, has generated large earthquakes associated with both these types of structures. The moderate earthquake that occurred on 21 May 2014 (M-w 6.1) in the northern Bay of Bengal followed an alternate mechanism, as it showed no clear association either with active or extinct ridge-transform structures. Its focal depth of >50 km is uncommon but not improbable, given the similar to 90 Ma age of the ocean floor with 12-km-thick overlying sediments. No tectonic features have been mapped in the near vicinity of its epicenter, the closest being the 85 degrees E ridge, located similar to 100 km to its west, hitherto regarded as seismically inactive. The few earthquakes that have occurred here in the past are clustered around its southern or northern limits, and a few are located midway, at around 10 degrees N. The 2014 earthquake, sourced close to the northern cluster, seems to be associated with a northwest-southeast-oriented fracture, located on the eastern flanks of the 85 degrees E ridge. If this causal association is possible, we believe that reactivation of fossil hotspot trails could be considered as another mechanism for oceanic intraplate seismicity.

非相对论热力学中玻意耳定律与焦耳定律的相互独立性

证明在非相对论热力学理论系统中,焦耳定律不是玻意耳定律的推论,玻意耳定律也不是焦耳定律的推论.用热力学证明理想气体的低温热容满足关系式∫ε0(CV(θ))/(θ)dθ＝+∞,并对以往的争论给予一些评论.