Disruption prediction at JET [Joint European Torus]

The sudden loss of the plasma magnetic confinement, known as disruption, is one of the major issue in a nuclear fusion machine as JET (Joint European Torus), Disruptions pose very serious problems to the safety of the machine. The energy stored in the plasma is released to the machine structure in few milliseconds resulting in forces that at JET reach several Mega Newtons. The problem is even more severe in the nuclear fusion power station where the forces are in the order of one hundred Mega Newtons. The events that occur during a disruption are still not well understood even if some mechanisms that can lead to a disruption have been identified and can be used to predict them. Unfortunately it is always a combination of these events that generates a disruption and therefore it is not possible to use simple algorithms to predict it. This thesis analyses the possibility of using neural network algorithms to predict plasma disruptions in real time. This involves the determination of plasma parameters every few milliseconds. A plasma boundary reconstruction algorithm, XLOC, has been developed in collaboration with Dr. D. Ollrien and Dr. J. Ellis capable of determining the plasma wall/distance every 2 milliseconds. The XLOC output has been used to develop a multilayer perceptron network to determine plasma parameters as ?i and q? with which a machine operational space has been experimentally defined. If the limits of this operational space are breached the disruption probability increases considerably. Another approach for prediction disruptions is to use neural network classification methods to define the JET operational space. Two methods have been studied. The first method uses a multilayer perceptron network with softmax activation function for the output layer. This method can be used for classifying the input patterns in various classes. In this case the plasma input patterns have been divided between disrupting and safe patterns, giving the possibility of assigning a disruption probability to every plasma input pattern. The second method determines the novelty of an input pattern by calculating the probability density distribution of successful plasma patterns that have been run at JET. The density distribution is represented as a mixture distribution, and its parameters arc determined using the Expectation-Maximisation method. If the dataset, used to determine the distribution parameters, covers sufficiently well the machine operational space. Then, the patterns flagged as novel can be regarded as patterns belonging to a disrupting plasma. Together with these methods, a network has been designed to predict the vertical forces, that a disruption can cause, in order to avoid that too dangerous plasma configurations are run. This network can be run before the pulse using the pre-programmed plasma configuration or on line becoming a tool that allows to stop dangerous plasma configuration. All these methods have been implemented in real time on a dual Pentium Pro based machine. The Disruption Prediction and Prevention System has shown that internal plasma parameters can be determined on-line with a good accuracy. Also the disruption detection algorithms showed promising results considering the fact that JET is an experimental machine where always new plasma configurations are tested trying to improve its performances.

The analysis and prediction of the quantity and composition of household refuse

This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

A Bayesian modeling approach to multi-dimensional sentiment distributions prediction

Sentiment analysis has long focused on binary classification of text as either positive or negative. There has been few work on mapping sentiments or emotions into multiple dimensions. This paper studies a Bayesian modeling approach to multi-class sentiment classification and multidimensional sentiment distributions prediction. It proposes effective mechanisms to incorporate supervised information such as labeled feature constraints and document-level sentiment distributions derived from the training data into model learning. We have evaluated our approach on the datasets collected from the confession section of the Experience Project website where people share their life experiences and personal stories. Our results show that using the latent representation of the training documents derived from our approach as features to build a maximum entropy classifier outperforms other approaches on multi-class sentiment classification. In the more difficult task of multi-dimensional sentiment distributions prediction, our approach gives superior performance compared to a few competitive baselines. © 2012 ACM.

Full-field electronic dispersion compensation of a 10 Gbit/s OOK signal over 4 x 124 km field-installed single-mode fibre

We experimentally demonstrate the use of full-field electronic dispersion compensation (EDC) to achieve a bit error rate of 5 x 10(-5) at 22.3 dB optical signal-to-noise ratio for single-channel 10 Gbit/s on-off keyed signal after transmission over 496 km field-installed single-mode fibre with an amplifier spacing of 124 km. This performance is achieved by designing the EDC so as to avoid electronic amplification of the noise content of the signal during full-field reconstruction. We also investigate the tolerance of the system to key signal processing parameters, and numerically demonstrate that single-channel 2160 km single mode fibre transmission without in-line optical dispersion compensation can be achieved using this technique with 80 km amplifier spacing and optimized system parameters.

Mitigation of pattern sensitivity in full-field electronic dispersion compensation

We investigate the pattern-dependent decoding failures in full-field electronic dispersion compensation (EDC) by offline processing of experimental signals, and find that the performance of such an EDC receiver may be degraded by an isolated "1" bit surrounded by long strings of consecutive "0s". By reducing the probability of occurrence of this kind of isolated "1" and using a novel adaptive threshold decoding method, we greatly improve the compensation performance to achieve 10-Gb/s on-off keyed signal transmission over 496-km field-installed single-mode fiber without optical dispersion compensation.

Adaptive message rate control of infrastructured DSRC vehicle networks for coexisting road safety and non-safety applications

Intelligent transport system (ITS) has large potentials on road safety applications as well as nonsafety applications. One of the big challenges for ITS is on the reliable and cost-effective vehicle communications due to the large quantity of vehicles, high mobility, and bursty traffic from the safety and non-safety applications. In this paper, we investigate the use of dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) for coexisting safety and non-safety applications over infrastructured vehicle networks. The main objective of this work is to improve the scalability of communications for vehicles networks, ensure QoS for safety applications, and leave as much as possible bandwidth for non-safety applications. A two-level adaptive control scheme is proposed to find appropriate message rate and control channel interval for safety applications. Simulation results demonstrated that this adaptive method outperforms the fixed control method under varying number of vehicles. © 2012 Wenyang Guan et al.

An alternating boundary integral based method for a Cauchy problem for the Laplace equation in semi-infinite regions

We consider a Cauchy problem for the Laplace equation in a two-dimensional semi-infinite region with a bounded inclusion, i.e. the region is the intersection between a half-plane and the exterior of a bounded closed curve contained in the half-plane. The Cauchy data are given on the unbounded part of the boundary of the region and the aim is to construct the solution on the boundary of the inclusion. In 1989, Kozlov and Maz'ya [10] proposed an alternating iterative method for solving Cauchy problems for general strongly elliptic and formally self-adjoint systems in bounded domains. We extend their approach to our setting and in each iteration step mixed boundary value problems for the Laplace equation in the semi-infinite region are solved. Well-posedness of these mixed problems are investigated and convergence of the alternating procedure is examined. For the numerical implementation an efficient boundary integral equation method is proposed, based on the indirect variant of the boundary integral equation approach. The mixed problems are reduced to integral equations over the (bounded) boundary of the inclusion. Numerical examples are included showing the feasibility of the proposed method.

10Gbit/s dispersion managed soliton transmission over 16,500km in standard fibre by reduction of soliton interactions

We show experimentally and numerically that in high-speed strongly dispersion-managed standard fiber soliton systems nonlinear interactions limit the propagation distance. We present results that show that the effect of these interactions can be significantly reduced by appropriate location of the amplifier within the dispersion map. Using this technique, we have been able to extend the propagation distance of 10-Gbit/s 231–1pseudorandom binary sequence soliton data to 16, 500km over standard fiber by use of dispersion compensation. To our knowledge this distance is the farthest transmission over standard fiber without active control ever reported, and it was achieved with the amplifier placed after the dispersion-compensating fiber in a recirculating loop.

40 Gbit/s dispersion managed soliton transmission over 1160 km in standard fibre with 75 km span length

In dispersion managed high bit rate systems, the importance of correctly choosing the pulse launch position is investigated. Using this technique, error free transmission has been achieved of a 40 Gbit/s 231-1 nonlinear RZ PRBS over 1160 km in a dispersion compensated standard fiber propagation experiment with a 75 km standard fiber span.

Soliton transmission at 10 Gbit/s over 2022 km of standard fibre with dispersion compensation

We present experimental results of 10 Gbit/s, 20 ps soliton data transmission over standard fibre, dispersion compensated to 0.5 ps/nm/km. Acceptable Q values were measured to a distance of 2022 km.

A weakly-supervised Bayesian model for violence detection from social media

Social streams have proven to be the mostup-to-date and inclusive information on cur-rent events. In this paper we propose a novelprobabilistic modelling framework, called violence detection model (VDM), which enables the identification of text containing violent content and extraction of violence-related topics over social media data. The proposed VDM model does not require any labeled corpora for training, instead, it only needs the in-corporation of word prior knowledge which captures whether a word indicates violence or not. We propose a novel approach of deriving word prior knowledge using the relative entropy measurement of words based on the in-tuition that low entropy words are indicative of semantically coherent topics and therefore more informative, while high entropy words indicates words whose usage is more topical diverse and therefore less informative. Our proposed VDM model has been evaluated on the TREC Microblog 2011 dataset to identify topics related to violence. Experimental results show that deriving word priors using our proposed relative entropy method is more effective than the widely-used information gain method. Moreover, VDM gives higher violence classification results and produces more coherent violence-related topics compared toa few competitive baselines.

Toward bacterial protein sub-cellular location prediction:single-class discrimminant models for all gram- and gram+ compartments

Based on Bayesian Networks, methods were created that address protein sequence-based bacterial subcellular location prediction. Distinct predictive algorithms for the eight bacterial subcellular locations were created. Several variant methods were explored. These variations included differences in the number of residues considered within the query sequence - which ranged from the N-terminal 10 residues to the whole sequence - and residue representation - which took the form of amino acid composition, percentage amino acid composition, or normalised amino acid composition. The accuracies of the best performing networks were then compared to PSORTB. All individual location methods outperform PSORTB except for the Gram+ cytoplasmic protein predictor, for which accuracies were essentially equal, and for outer membrane protein prediction, where PSORTB outperforms the binary predictor. The method described here is an important new approach to method development for subcellular location prediction. It is also a new, potentially valuable tool for candidate subunit vaccine selection.

Enhanced dispersion tolerance of coherent offset-QAM OFDM over conventional OFDM

We experimentally demonstrate 38-Gbit/s offset-16QAM OFDM over 840km without guard interval, and numerically show that 112-Gbit/s PDM offset-QPSK OFDM achieves 23% increase in net capacity over conventional OFDM under the same transmission reach. © 2014 Optical Society of America.