Additive Hazards Models with Latent Treatment Effectiveness Lag Time

In many clinical trials to evaluate treatment efficacy, it is believed that there may exist latent treatment effectiveness lag times after which medical procedure or chemical compound would be in full effect. In this article, semiparametric regression models are proposed and studied to estimate the treatment effect accounting for such latent lag times. The new models take advantage of the invariance property of the additive hazards model in marginalizing over random effects, so parameters in the models are easy to be estimated and interpreted, while the flexibility without specifying baseline hazard function is kept. Monte Carlo simulation studies demonstrate the appropriateness of the proposed semiparametric estimation procedure. Data collected in the actual randomized clinical trial, which evaluates the effectiveness of biodegradable carmustine polymers for treatment of recurrent brain tumors, are analyzed.

Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

La Yeguada volcanic complex, western Panama : an assessment of the geologic hazards using new 40AR/39Ar Ages

La Yeguada volcanic complex is one of three Quaternary volcanic centers in Panama, and is located on the southern slope of the Cordillera Central mountain range in western Panama, province of Veraguas. To assess potential geologic hazards, this study focused on the main dome complex near the village of La Laguna and also examined a cinder cone 10 km to the northwest next to the village of Media Luna. Based on newly obtained 40Ar/39Ar ages, the most recent eruption occurred approximately 32 000 years ago at the Media Luna cinder cone, while the youngest dated eruption at the main dome complex occurred 0.357 ± 0.019 Ma, producing the Castillo dome unit. Cerro Picacho is a separate dome located 1.5 km east of the main complex with a date of 4.47 ± 0.23 Ma, and the El Satro Pyroclastic Flow unit surrounds the northern portion of the volcanic complex and has an age of 11.26 ± 0.17 Ma. No Holocene (10 000 years ago to present) activity is recorded at the La Yeguada volcanic complex and therefore, it is unlikely to produce another eruption. The emergence of a new cinder cone is a possibility, but the associated hazards tend to be low and localized, and this does not pose a significant threat to the small communities scattered throughout the area. The main geologic hazard at the La Yeguada volcanic complex is from landslides coming off the many steep slopes.

Risk analysis of light-frame wood construction due to multiple hazards

Light-frame wood buildings are widely built in the United States (U.S.). Natural hazards cause huge losses to light-frame wood construction. This study proposes methodologies and a framework to evaluate the performance and risk of light-frame wood construction. Performance-based engineering (PBE) aims to ensure that a building achieves the desired performance objectives when subjected to hazard loads. In this study, the collapse risk of a typical one-story light-frame wood building is determined using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method. The collapse risks of buildings at four sites in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions of U.S. are evaluated. Various sources of uncertainties are considered in the collapse risk assessment so that the influence of uncertainties on the collapse risk of lightframe wood construction is evaluated. The collapse risks of the same building subjected to maximum considered earthquakes at different seismic zones are found to be non-uniform. In certain areas in the U.S., the snow accumulation is significant and causes huge economic losses and threatens life safety. Limited study has been performed to investigate the snow hazard when combined with a seismic hazard. A Filtered Poisson Process (FPP) model is developed in this study, overcoming the shortcomings of the typically used Bernoulli model. The FPP model is validated by comparing the simulation results to weather records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The FPP model is applied in the proposed framework to assess the risk of a light-frame wood building subjected to combined snow and earthquake loads. The snow accumulation has a significant influence on the seismic losses of the building. The Bernoulli snow model underestimates the seismic loss of buildings in areas with snow accumulation. An object-oriented framework is proposed in this study to performrisk assessment for lightframe wood construction. For home owners and stake holders, risks in terms of economic losses is much easier to understand than engineering parameters (e.g., inter story drift). The proposed framework is used in two applications. One is to assess the loss of the building subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Aftershock and downtime costs are found to be important factors in the assessment of seismic losses. The framework is also applied to a wood building in the state of Washington to assess the loss of the building subjected to combined earthquake and snow loads. The proposed framework is proven to be an appropriate tool for risk assessment of buildings subjected to multiple hazards. Limitations and future works are also identified.

Cardiovascular mortality and exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields: a cohort study of Swiss railway workers

BACKGROUND: Exposure to intermittent magnetic fields of 16 Hz has been shown to reduce heart rate variability, and decreased heart rate variability predicts cardiovascular mortality. We examined mortality from cardiovascular causes in railway workers exposed to varying degrees to intermittent 16.7 Hz magnetic fields. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 20,141 Swiss railway employees between 1972 and 2002, including highly exposed train drivers (median lifetime exposure 120.5 muT-years), and less or little exposed shunting yard engineers (42.1 muT-years), train attendants (13.3 muT-years) and station masters (5.7 muT-years). During 464,129 person-years of follow up, 5,413 deaths were recorded and 3,594 deaths were attributed to cardio-vascular diseases. We analyzed data using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: For all cardiovascular mortality the hazard ratio compared to station masters was 0.99 (95%CI: 0.91, 1.08) in train drivers, 1.13 (95%CI: 0.98, 1.30) in shunting yard engineers, and 1.09 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.19) in train attendants. Corresponding hazard ratios for arrhythmia related deaths were 1.04 (95%CI: 0.68, 1.59), 0.58 (95%CI: 0.24, 1.37) and 10 (95%CI: 0.87, 1.93) and for acute myocardial infarction 1.00 (95%CI: 0.73, 1.36), 1.56 (95%CI: 1.04, 2.32), and 1.14 (95%CI: 0.85, 1.53). The hazard ratio for arrhythmia related deaths per 100 muT-years of cumulative exposure was 0.94 (95%CI: 0.71, 1.24) and 0.91 (95%CI: 0.75, 1.11) for acute myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence against an association between long-term occupational exposure to intermittent 16.7 Hz magnetic fields and cardiovascular mortality.

Sustainability study of nanomaterials including societal and occupational implications

In recent years there has been a tremendous amount of research in the area of nanotechnology. History tells us that the commercialization of technologies will always be accompanied by both positive and negative effects for society and the environment. Products containing nanomaterials are already available in the market, and yet there is still not much information regarding the potential negative effects that these products may cause. The work presented in this dissertation describes a holistic approach to address different dimensions of nanotechnology sustainability. Life cycle analysis (LCA) was used to study the potential usage of polyethylene filled with nanomaterials to manufacture automobile body panels. Results showed that the nanocomposite does not provide an environmental benefit over traditional steel panels. A new methodology based on design of experiments (DOE) techniques, coupled with LCA, was implemented to investigate the impact of inventory uncertainties. Results showed that data variability does not have a significant effect on the prediction of the environmental impacts. Material profiles for input materials did have a highly significant effect on the overall impact. Energy consumption and material characterization were identified as two mainstreams where additional research is needed in order to predict the overall impact of nanomaterials more effectively. A study was undertaken to gain insights into the behavior of small particles in contact with a surface exposed to air flow to determine particle lift-off from the surface. A mapping strategy was implemented that allows for the identification of conditions for particle liftoff based on particle size and separation distance from the wall. Main results showed that particles smaller than 0:1mm will not become airborne under shear flow unless the separation distance is greater than 15 nm. Results may be used to minimize exposure to airborne materials. Societal implications that may occur in the workplace were researched. This research task explored different topics including health, ethics, and worker perception with the aim of identifying the base knowledge available in the literature. Recommendations are given for different scenarios to describe how workers and employers could minimize the unwanted effects of nanotechnology production.

An Evaluation of Potential Occupational Exposure to Asbestiform Amphiboles near a Former Vermiculite Mine

Amphibole asbestos (AA) has been detected on the surface of tree bark in forests neighboring an abandoned vermiculite mine near Libby, Montana. In the present study, simulations were performed to assess potential AA exposure associated with United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS) occupational activities. Bark samples were collected prior, and personal breathing zone (PBZ) and Tyvek clothing wipe samples were collected during and immediately after trials that simulated FS activities. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analyses revealed AA bark concentrations up to 15 million structures per square centimeter (s/cm2). AA was detected in 25% of the PBZ TEM samples. AA was detected on wipe samples collected from all activities evaluated. This research demonstrates the potential for airborne exposure and transport of AA in the Kootenai National Forest. These findings are especially relevant to those that work in the area and to the general public who may conduct recreational activities.

Are Warnings on Plastic Films Adequate?

Warnings are used to inform users of hazards that may be associated with many products. Often these warnings deal with the operation of tools, appliances, and other items for which the user may have some reason at least, to look for information on the product regarding its use. Plastic film presents a serious hazard to young children. Because the film will adhere to the flesh, if it covers the airways for the child, suffocation may result. Because young children may play with them, it is important that such films be kept away from them. Warnings need to be adequate to inform or remind caregivers of this fact. This study examined warnings found on various items in commerce and some alternatives to those warnings. The results showed some warnings to be poor at best. The alternative most preferred included both the prohibition sign and a symbolic indication of proper disposal.

Materials-Handling Hazard Controls: Assessment of Haddon’s Injury Control Strategies

This investigation assessed the applicability of Dr. William Haddon’s strategies for controlling hazards involving materials-handling operations in industrial and mining workplaces. Published over 20 years ago, Haddon’s strategies purport to include all strategies for preventing and mitigating harm to people, property, and the environment. Students in an undergraduate class were assigned to find tactical examples of each of Haddon’s strategies applicable to material handling. Haddon’s tenth strategy involving medical care and rehabilitation was not included. Their classifications were analyzed to identify points of confusion as well as points of general agreement. Students found numerous tactics for strategies involving engineering and behavioral strategies. Fewer tactics were identified for strategies involving damage control through effective and timely response.

Effectiveness of Colors used on Safety and Health Signs for Communicating Severity of Injury

Signs are used extensively in workplaces and on products to identify hazards and provide instructions for appropriate behavior. A fundamental element of these signs is the signal-word panel located at the top of the sign. The colors and words in this panel are intended to convey information about the hazard identified. One type of hazard information concerns the severity of injury/illness associated with the hazard. The standard of the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) for facility signs uses three severity categories: 1) death or serious injury, 2) minor or moderate injury, and 3) property damage. The standard specifies which signal-word panel format, including color, to use based in part on the severity category. The purpose of this study was to determine if college students associate color with severity. The sample population consisted of 59 students tested in nine small groups. Twelve signs were shown to them in random order. Five of the signs had a color for the background of the signal-word panel. The colors were red, orange, yellow, blue, and gray. The signal word was a nonsense word and the text panel contained repetitions of the letter x in sentence format. Subject rated their impressions of the colors using two ordered rating scales for severity. Results indicated that color had a highly significant effect on severity ratings. Median ratings were generally consistent with the ANSI standard, except for orange. Red rated highest on both scales. Blue and gray rated lowest. Yellow and orange were in between red and blue. According to the ANSI standard, orange should indicate the same severity as red. These results indicated that orange was associated with less severity than red. Apparently, the ANSI standard's use of orange to identify a hazard associated with death or a serious injury is questionable.

Risk Reduction Strategies: Past, Present, and Future

Several respected authors have proposed short lists of all strategies for controlling hazards or reducing risks from hazards. This article reviews those attempts and proposes an improved list of nine risk reduction strategies.

Occupational exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and DNA damage by industry: a nationwide study in Germany

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and DNA damage were analyzed in coke oven (n = 37), refractory (n = 96), graphite electrode (n = 26), and converter workers (n = 12), whereas construction workers (n = 48) served as referents. PAH exposure was assessed by personal air sampling during shift and biological monitoring in urine post shift (1-hydroxypyrene, 1-OHP and 1-, 2 + 9-, 3-, 4-hydroxyphenanthrenes, SigmaOHPHE). DNA damage was measured by 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) and DNA strand breaks in blood post shift. Median 1-OHP and SigmaOHPHE were highest in converter workers (13.5 and 37.2 microg/g crea). The industrial setting contributed to the metabolite concentrations rather than the air-borne concentration alone. Other routes of uptake, probably dermal, influenced associations between air-borne concentrations and levels of PAH metabolites in urine making biomonitoring results preferred parameters to assess exposure to PAH. DNA damage in terms of 8-oxo-dGuo and DNA strand breaks was higher in exposed workers compared to referents ranking highest for graphite-electrode production. The type of industry contributed to genotoxic DNA damage and DNA damage was not unequivocally associated to PAH on the individual level most likely due to potential contributions of co-exposures.