Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Indications à la coronarographie en urgence. Partie II: syndromes coronariens aigus sans élévation du segment ST [Indications for urgent coronary angiography. Part II: Acute coronary syndromes without ST-segment elevation]

The optimal treatment strategy for patients presenting with an acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation is controversial and different therapeutic approaches are recognized. Currently, given the literature available, it is not possible to recommend a universal systematic invasive approach. It is essential to individually risk stratify patients in order to identify those high risk patients that have been shown to benefit from an invasive strategy. Compared to conservative medical treatment, patients at low risk have not been shown to benefit from an invasive strategy. Urgent coronary angiography remains recommended for those patients with persistent or recurrent ischemic symptoms under optimal medical treatment.

Audit report on the City of St. Charles, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2010

Audit report on the City of St. Charles, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2010