Heat fluxes and surface radiation measurements from Samoylov Island, Lena Delta, Siberia, October 2007 to March 2008

In this study, we present the winter time surface energy balance at a polygonal tundra site in northern Siberia based on independent measurements of the net radiation, the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux from two winter seasons. The latent heat flux is inferred from measurements of the atmospheric turbulence characteristics and a model approach. The long-wave radiation is found to be the dominant factor in the surface energy balance. The radiative losses are balanced to about 60 % by the ground heat flux and almost 40 % by the sensible heat fluxes, whereas the contribution of the latent heat flux is small. The main controlling factors of the surface energy budget are the snow cover, the cloudiness and the soil temperature gradient. Large spatial differences in the surface energy balance are observed between tundra soils and a small pond. The ground heat flux released at a freezing pond is by a factor of two higher compared to the freezing soil, whereas large differences in net radiation between the pond and soil are only observed at the end of the winter period. Differences in the surface energy balance between the two winter seasons are found to be related to differences in snow depth and cloud cover which strongly affect the temperature evolution and the freeze-up at the investigated pond.

SIGNIFICANCE OF HEAT DISSIPATION IN THE CATHODE CATALYST LAYER ON THE LIFETIME AND RELIABILITY OF POLYMER ELECTROLYTE FUEL CELLS

To study the dissipation of heat generated due to the formation of pinholes that cause local hotspots in the catalyst layer of the Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell, a two-phase non-isothermal model has been developed by coupling Darcy’s law with heat transport. The domain under consideration is a section of the membrane electrode assembly with a half-channel and a half-rib. Five potential locations where a pinhole might form were analyzed: at the midplane of the channel, midway between the channel midplane and the channel wall, at the channel or rib wall, midway between the rib midplane and the channel wall, at the midplane of the rib. In the first part of this work, a preliminary thermal model was developed. The model was then refined to account for the two-phase effects. A sensitivity study was done to evaluate the effect of the following properties on the maximum temperature in the domain: Catalyst layer thermal conductivity, the Microporous layer thermal conductivity, the anisotropy factor of the Catalyst layer thermal conductivity, the Porous transport layer porosity, the liquid water distribution and the thickness of the membrane and porous layers. Accounting for the two-phase effects, a slight cooling effect was observed across all hotspot locations. The thermal properties of the catalyst layer were shown to have a limited impact on the maximum temperature in the catalyst layer of new fuel cells without pinhole. However, as hotspots start to appear, thermal properties play a more significant role in mitigating the thermal runaway.

Network Connectivity under Node Failure

We examine a non-cooperative model of network formation where players may stop functioning with a given probability. When this happens all the links associated with this player are no longer available in the network. In the model, players receive benefits from connecting directly and indirectly to other agents in the network through costly links. We identify conditions under which a Nash network will remain connected after the loss of k nodes by introducing the notion of k-Node Super Connectivity network. We identify similar conditions for efficient networks as well.

Solar magnetic carpet I: simulation of synthetic magnetograms

This paper describes a new 2D model for the photospheric evolution of the magnetic carpet. It is the first in a series of papers working towards constructing a realistic 3D non-potential model for the interaction of small-scale solar magnetic fields. In the model, the basic evolution of the magnetic elements is governed by a supergranular flow profile. In addition, magnetic elements may evolve through the processes of emergence, cancellation, coalescence and fragmentation. Model parameters for the emergence of bipoles are based upon the results of observational studies. Using this model, several simulations are considered, where the range of flux with which bipoles may emerge is varied. In all cases the model quickly reaches a steady state where the rates of emergence and cancellation balance. Analysis of the resulting magnetic field shows that we reproduce observed quantities such as the flux distribution, mean field, cancellation rates, photospheric recycle time and a magnetic network. As expected, the simulation matches observations more closely when a larger, and consequently more realistic, range of emerging flux values is allowed (4×1016 - 1019 Mx). The model best reproduces the current observed properties of the magnetic carpet when we take the minimum absolute flux for emerging bipoles to be 4×1016 Mx. In future, this 2D model will be used as an evolving photospheric boundary condition for 3D non-potential modeling.

Nme Gene Family Evolutionary History Reveals Pre-Metazoan Origins and High Conservation between Humans and the Sea Anemone, Nematostella vectensis

Background: The Nme gene family is involved in multiple physiological and pathological processes such as cellular differentiation, development, metastatic dissemination, and cilia functions. Despite the known importance of Nme genes and their use as clinical markers of tumor aggressiveness, the associated cellular mechanisms remain poorly understood. Over the last 20 years, several non-vertebrate model species have been used to investigate Nme functions. However, the evolutionary history of the family remains poorly understood outside the vertebrate lineage. The aim of the study was thus to elucidate the evolutionary history of the Nme gene family in Metazoans. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using a total of 21 eukaryote species including 14 metazoans, the evolutionary history of Nme genes was reconstructed in the metazoan lineage. We demonstrated that the complexity of the Nme gene family, initially thought to be restricted to chordates, was also shared by the metazoan ancestor. We also provide evidence suggesting that the complexity of the family is mainly a eukaryotic innovation, with the exception of Nme8 that is likely to be a choanoflagellate/metazoan innovation. Highly conserved gene structure, genomic linkage, and protein domains were identified among metazoans, some features being also conserved in eukaryotes. When considering the entire Nme family, the starlet sea anemone is the studied metazoan species exhibiting the most conserved gene and protein sequence features with humans. In addition, we were able to show that most of the proteins known to interact with human NME proteins were also found in starlet sea anemone. Conclusion/Significance: Together, our observations further support the association of Nme genes with key cellular functions that have been conserved throughout metazoan evolution. Future investigations of evolutionarily conserved Nme gene functions using the starlet sea anemone could shed new light on a wide variety of key developmental and cellular processes.

On Growth Rate of Wind Waves: Impact of Short-Scale Breaking Modulations

The wave generation model based on the rapid distortion concept significantly underestimates empirical values of the wave growth rate. As suggested before, inclusion of the aerodynamic roughness modulations effect on the amplitude of the slope-correlated surface pressure could potentially reconcile this model approach with observations. This study explores the role of short-scale breaking modulations to amplify the growth rate of modulating longer waves. As developed, airflow separations from modulated breaking waves result in strong modulations of the turbulent stress in the inner region of the modulating waves. In turn, this leads to amplifying the slope-correlated surface pressure anomalies. As evaluated, such a mechanism can be very efficient for enhancing the wind-wave growth rate by a factor of 2-3.

Solid-liquid interactions in microscale structures and devices

Liquid-solid interactions become important as dimensions approach mciro/nano-scale. This dissertation focuses on liquid-solid interactions in two distinct applications: capillary driven self-assembly of thin foils into 3D structures, and droplet wetting of hydrophobic micropatterned surfaces. The phenomenon of self-assembly of complex structures is common in biological systems. Examples include self-assembly of proteins into macromolecular structures and self-assembly of lipid bilayer membranes. The principles governing this phenomenon have been applied to induce self-assembly of millimeter scale Si thin films into spherical and other 3D structures, which are then integrated into light-trapping photovoltaic (PV) devices. Motivated by this application, we present a generalized analytical study of the self-folding of thin plates into deterministic 3D shapes, through fluid-solid interactions, to be used as PV devices. This study consists of developing a model using beam theory, which incorporates the two competing components — a capillary force that promotes folding and the bending rigidity of the foil that resists folding into a 3D structure. Through an equivalence argument of thin foils of different geometry, an effective folding parameter, which uniquely characterizes the driving force for folding, has been identified. A criterion for spontaneous folding of an arbitrarily shaped 2D foil, based on the effective folding parameter, is thus established. Measurements from experiments using different materials and predictions from the model match well, validating the assumptions used in the analysis. As an alternative to the mechanics model approach, the minimization of the total free energy is employed to investigate the interactions between a fluid droplet and a flexible thin film. A 2D energy functional is proposed, comprising the surface energy of the fluid, bending energy of the thin film and gravitational energy of the fluid. Through simulations with Surface Evolver, the shapes of the droplet and the thin film at equilibrium are obtained. A critical thin film length necessary for complete enclosure of the fluid droplet, and hence successful self-assembly into a PV device, is determined and compared with the experimental results and mechanics model predictions. The results from the modeling and energy approaches and the experiments are all consistent. Superhydrophobic surfaces, which have unique properties including self-cleaning and water repelling are desired in many applications. One excellent example in nature is the lotus leaf. To fabricate these surfaces, well designed micro/nano- surface structures are often employed. In this research, we fabricate superhydrophobic micropatterned Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) surfaces composed of micropillars of various sizes and arrangements by means of soft lithography. Both anisotropic surfaces, consisting of parallel grooves and cylindrical pillars in rectangular lattices, and isotropic surfaces, consisting of cylindrical pillars in square and hexagonal lattices, are considered. A novel technique is proposed to image the contact line (CL) of the droplet on the hydrophobic surface. This technique provides a new approach to distinguish between partial and complete wetting. The contact area between droplet and microtextured surface is then measured for a droplet in the Cassie state, which is a state of partial wetting. The results show that although the droplet is in the Cassie state, the contact area does not necessarily follow Cassie model predictions. Moreover, the CL is not circular, and is affected by the micropatterns, in both isotropic and anisotropic cases. Thus, it is suggested that along with the contact angle — the typical parameter reported in literature quantifying wetting, the size and shape of the contact area should also be presented. This technique is employed to investigate the evolution of the CL on a hydrophobic micropatterned surface in the cases of: a single droplet impacting the micropatterned surface, two droplets coalescing on micropillars, and a receding droplet resting on the micropatterned surface. Another parameter which quantifies hydrophobicity is the contact angle hysteresis (CAH), which indicates the resistance of the surface to the sliding of a droplet with a given volume. The conventional methods of using advancing and receding angles or tilting stage to measure the resistance of the micropatterned surface are indirect, without mentioning the inaccuracy due to the discrete and stepwise motion of the CL on micropillars. A micronewton force sensor is utilized to directly measure the resisting force by dragging a droplet on a microtextured surface. Together with the proposed imaging technique, the evolution of the CL during sliding is also explored. It is found that, at the onset of sliding, the CL behaves as a linear elastic solid with a constant stiffness. Afterwards, the force first increases and then decreases and reaches a steady state, accompanied with periodic oscillations due to regular pinning and depinning of the CL. Both the maximum and steady state forces are primarily dependent on area fractions of the micropatterned surfaces in our experiment. The resisting force is found to be proportional to the number of pillars which pin the CL at the trailing edge, validating the assumption that the resistance mainly arises from the CL pinning at the trailing edge. In each pinning-and-depinning cycle during the steady state, the CL also shows linear elastic behavior but with a lower stiffness. The force variation and energy dissipation involved can also be determined. This novel method of measuring the resistance of the micropatterned surface elucidates the dependence on CL pinning and provides more insight into the mechanisms of CAH.

Síntese e estudo de polioxotungstatos do tipo Keggin com interesse catalítico

O objectivo principal deste trabalho foi estudar as propriedades e comportamento de polioxotungstatos (POM) do tipo Keggin com interesse em catálise oxidativa. Os estudos efectuados centraram-se no comportamento electroquímico dos aniões em meio não aquoso, na estabilidade das suas estruturas em diferentes meios, na sua capacidade de catalisar a oxidação de diferentes substratos orgânicos e na sua eficácia em oxidar, de forma selectiva, um modelo não fenólico da lenhina. Efectuou-se, igualmente, o estudo estrutural de diversos aniões pela técnica de EXAFS. Neste trabalho, prepararam-se e caracterizaram-se alguns dos sais de tetra-n-butilamónio (TBA) dos polioxotungstatos estudados: compostos de Keggin, TBAx[XW12O40], lacunares, TBAxHy[XW11O39], mono-substituídos, TBAxHy[XW11M(H2O)O39]·nH2O, com X= P e Si e M = CoII, NiII, ZnII, CuIl, RuIII, MnIII e FeIII e os compostos com mistura de átomos adenda TBAx[XW11VO40]·nH2O (X = P e Si). Seleccionou-se este conjunto de polioxotungstatos de forma a efectuar-se um estudo comparativo da influência da natureza do heteroátomo central (P e Si) e dos metais de transição M nas propriedades estudadas. O conjunto de sais de TBA dos silicotungstatos estudados mostraram ser isoestruturais, apresentando a mesma estrutura dos fosfotungstatos análogos. O comportamento electroquímico dos polioxotungstatos foi estudado em soluções de acetonitrilo por voltametria cíclica e electrólise a potencial controlado. Verificou-se a ocorrência de vários processos mono-electrónicos de oxi-redução, reversíveis ou quasi-reversíveis, associados aos átomos de WVI/V e a alguns dos metais de transição. Os metais em estado de oxidação +3 reduziram-se mais facilmente do que os átomos de WVI. O metal CuII apresentou um comportamento diferente dos outros metais de transição. Este metal, na estrutura do POM, reduziu-se a CuI, proporcionando a observação do anião [PW11CuIO39]6- pela primeira vez. A redução posterior do CuI conduziu à formação de Cu0, que se depositou na superfície do eléctrodo. A re-oxidação do cobre a CuII conduziu à reconstituição da estrutura do POM, nas condições estudadas. Constatou-se que a ocorrência de protões na fórmula molecular dos POMs influenciou o seu comportamento electroquímico. Para os compostos que apresentam protões, a redução dos átomos de tungsténio ocorreu a potenciais menos negativos do que para aqueles que não apresentam protões na sua fórmula. Para os primeiros observou-se a transferência global de um maior número de electrões no mesmo intervalo de potencial, originando soluções fortemente azuladas. Quando os catiões tetra-n-butilamónio foram substituídos por catiões de menor dimensão, como Li+ e Na+, ocorreu a formação de pares iónicos com os polianiões [PW12O40]3- e [SiW11VO40]5-, originando um aumento do potencial de redução. Não houve evidência da formação de pares iónicos com os catiões TBA+. Este foi o primeiro estudo sistemático do comportamento electroquímico dos aniões lacunares e mono-substituídos em meio não aquoso. Estudou-se a estrutura dos polioxotungstatos em sais de TBA e em soluções de acetonitrilo. A aplicação da técnica de EXAFS ao estudo deste tipo de compostos em solução foi realizada pela primeira vez. Pela análise estrutural nos sólidos verificou-se que, a natureza do metal de transição M e do átomo central X, na estrutura do POM, influenciam o tamanho dos vários octaedros que o constituem. Não se observaram diferenças significativas nas estruturas dos polianiões em solução. A estabilidade da estrutura dos polioxometalatos na presença de um excesso de H2O2, em soluções de acetonitrilo/H2O foi analisada por espectroscopia de absorção de EXAFS, RMN de 31P, IV e espectrofotometria de absorção no UV-Vis. De uma forma geral, os POMs em que o átomo central da estrutura é o Si apresentaram maior estabilidade do que os POMs correspondentes com átomo de P no centro. Em solução de acetonitrilo, na ausência de H2O2, todos os aniões mostraram ser estáveis durante vários dias. Em solução, na presença de H2O2 em excesso (H2O2/POM = 1300), o anião lacunar [PW11O39]7- não é estável, transformando-se no anião de Venturello, {PO4[W(O)(O2)2]4}3-, após a formação de [PW12O40]3-, como produto intermediário. Em relação aos aniões substituídos [PW11M(H2O)O39]p-, M = MnIII, RuIII, FeIII, CoII e ZnII, verificou-se o seguinte na presença de H2O2: os aniões com MnIII e CoII transformaram-se no anião de Keggin, [PW12O40]3-. Os aniões de RuIII e FeIII mantiveram as suas estruturas e o anião de ZnII decompôs-se em {HPO4[W(O)(O2)2]2}2- e fosfato. Para estes casos de não estabilidade estrutural, o processo de decomposição foi mais rápido na presença de maiores conteúdos de água. Pela análise de EXAFS, na presença de um menor excesso de H2O2 (H2O2/POM = 70) e apenas 8% de parte aquosa, verificou-se que os aniões substituídos por MnIII mantiveram a sua estrutura, embora o ligando H2O, coordenado ao Mn, tivesse sido substituído por um grupo oxo no polianião [SiW11Mn(H2O)O39]5-, e por um grupo peroxo no polianião [PW11Mn(H2O)O39]4-. O anião com RuIII, nestas condições, também mostrou substituir o seu ligando H2O por um grupo peroxo ou hidrogenoperoxo. Os polioxotungstatos mono-substituídos e lacunares mostraram ser catalisadores eficientes para a oxidação de cis-cicloocteno, geraniol e ciclooctano com H2O2. A maior novidade deste trabalho residiu na actividade catalítica apresentada pelos silicotungstatos estudados, contrariando o que é referido na literatura. Outro aspecto inovador foi o elevado valor de conversão obtido para a oxidação de ciclooctano. Este substrato foi oxidado com 74% de conversão, após 2h de reacção e com 80% de selectividade para o hidroperóxido de ciclooctilo, na presença do anião [PW11Fe(H2O)O39]4-. Os restantes produtos de reacção foram o ciclooctanol e a ciclooctanona. Os silicotungstatos apresentaram maior selectividade para o hidroperóxido de ciclooctilo do que os fosfotungstatos. O geraniol foi completamente oxidado após 3h de reacção, com 82% de selectividade para o 2,3-epoxigeraniol, na presença do anião [PW11Mn(H2O)O39]4-. O cis-cicloocteno foi oxidado ao seu epóxido, com 92% de conversão ao fim de 5h de reacção, na presença do anião lacunar [PW11O39]7-. O estudo da capacidade oxidativa do anião [SiW11VO40]5- foi analisada utilizando-se um modelo não fenólico da lenhina, a anisoína. Estudaram-se as condições favoráveis à obtenção de uma reacção selectiva para o anisilo, de forma a poder estudar-se a cinética da reacção. A estequiometria da reacção mostrou ser de 1:2 anisoína/POM. As ordens de reacção foram determinadas pelo método das velocidades iniciais e, a partir destes resultados, conheceu-se que o POM não estava envolvido no passo que limita a velocidade da reacção, sendo esta limitada pela transformação da anisoína. O estudo realizado sobre o efeito isotópico sugeriu que o passo que limitou a velocidade de reacção correspondeu à enolação da anisoína. Desta forma, observou-se pela primeira vez, que o POM oxida um modelo não fenólico da lenhina por via de enolação.

Modelo de resposta gradual para testes com penalização para itens dicotômicos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Estatística, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística, 2015.

Análise comportamental : um estudo por análise de sobrevivência, aplicada a cartões de crédito

A capacidade de adaptação e rapidez de decisão, distinguem as empresas que melhor conseguem competir e crescer no mercado global. Para atuar rapidamente, as organizações precisam de sistemas de informação cada vez mais eficazes, surgindo recentemente uma nova função considerada fundamental para as empresas, que é a de Cientista de Dados. É neste contexto e para responder aos desafios atuais e futuros, que surgem sistemas de informação cada vez mais avançados, suportados por modelos de análise e visualização estatística. Este trabalho consiste em criar uma metodologia de desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de incumprimento e perfil do consumidor, aplicado a cartões de crédito, com base numa exposição de análise comportamental, utilizando técnicas de análise de sobrevivência. São definidas técnicas de tratamento dos dados recolhidos, estimado modelo não-paramétrico de Kaplan-Meier e vários modelos de Cox de riscos proporcionais. Com recurso à curva ROC, dependente do tempo, à AUC e ao índice de Gini, conclui-se que o modelo final apresenta um desempenho positivo para identificar os clientes em situação de incumprimento ou com propensão a incumprir.

Prevalence of asthma among school children in Gaborone, Botswana.

Background: Asthma prevalence is high (>10%) in developed countries and although data is still missing for most of Africa, rates are increasing in developing regions as they become more westernized. We investigated the prevalence of asthma in school children in Gaborone, Botswana. Methods: This was a cross sectional descriptive study. ISAAC methodology was used. A representative proportionate size random sample of two age groups of children (13-14 year olds and 6-7 year olds) was consecutively enrolled from 10 schools. The schools were selected using a table of random numbers. A minimum sample size of 924 individuals (462 from each group) was adequate to achieve a precision of 3 % around our estimated prevalence of asthma of 10% with 95% confidence assuming a non-response rate of 20%. Data was collected using the validated International study of Asthma and Allergies in children (ISAAC) questionnaire. In accordance with the ISAAC criteria, Asthma was defined as wheezing in the previous 12 months. Data was captured in microsoft excel and analysed using SPSS version 23. Results: The prevalence of asthma (wheezing in the previous 12 months) was 16.5% (194/1175). Among the 6-7 year olds, the prevalence of asthma (wheezing in the previous 12 months) was 15.9%, while among the 13-14 years olds it was 16.8 %. The prevalence school type was 22.3 % in private schools versus 14.5 % in public schools. More severe asthma was associated with older children, 13 -14 years. The older children reported more limited speech due to wheezing (OR= 2.0, 95% CI =1.034, 3.9, p-value=0.043), ever had asthma (OR= 1.5, 95% CI=1.031, 2.3, p-value=0.034) and wheezing during exercise (OR=3.4, 95% CI= 2.5, 4.9, p-value= <0.001) compared to the younger children 6-7 years. Children from private schools had more wheezing symptoms. They were more likely to have ever wheezed (OR=2.2, .95% CI=1.7,2.9, p-value < 0.0001), wheezed in the previous twelve months (have asthma) (OR=1.7,95%CI=1.2,2.4, p-value = 0.001), ever had asthma (OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.7,3.5, pvalue< 0.0001), and wheezed during exercise (OR=1.8, 95% CI=1.4,2.4, p-value < 0.0001). Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma amongst school children in Gaborone, Botswana is high with older children experiencing more severe symptoms of asthma.

Long-term relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Latin America: an empirical assessment using panel data

The main objetive of this research is to evaluate the long term relationship between energy consumption and GDP for some Latin American countries in the period 1980-2009 -- The estimation has been done through the non-stationary panel approach, using the production function in order to control other sources of GDP variation, such as capital and labor -- In addition to this, a panel unit root tests are used in order to identify the non-stationarity of these variables, followed by the application of panel cointegration test proposed by Pedroni (2004) to avoid a spurious regression (Entorf, 1997; Kao, 1999)

Multiple sulfur isotope fractionations in inorganic aqueous systems

New constraints on isotope fractionation factors in inorganic aqueous sulfur systems based on theoretical and experimental techniques relevant to studies of the sulfur cycle in modern environments and the geologic rock record are presented in this dissertation. These include theoretical estimations of equilibrium isotope fractionation factors utilizing quantum mechanical software and a water cluster model approach for aqueous sulfur compounds that span the entire range of oxidation state for sulfur. These theoretical calculations generally reproduce the available experimental determinations from the literature and provide new constraints where no others are available. These theoretical calculations illustrate in detail the relationship between sulfur bonding environment and the mass dependence associated with equilibrium isotope exchange reactions involving all four isotopes of sulfur. I additionally highlight the effect of isomers of protonated compounds (compounds with the same chemical formula but different structure, where protons are bound to either sulfur or oxygen atoms) on isotope partitioning in the sulfite (S4+) and sulfoxylate (S2+) systems, both of which are key intermediates in oxidation-reduction processes in the sulfur cycle. I demonstrate that isomers containing the highest degree of coordination around sulfur (where protonation occurs on the sulfur atom) have a strong influence on isotopic fractionation factors, and argue that isomerization phenomenon should be considered in models of the sulfur cycle. Additionally, experimental results of the reaction rates and isotope fractionations associated with the chemical oxidation of aqueous sulfide are presented. Sulfide oxidation is a major process in the global sulfur cycle due largely to the sulfide-producing activity of anaerobic microorganisms in organic-rich marine sediments. These experiments reveal relationships between isotope fractionations and reaction rate as a function of both temperature and trace metal (ferrous iron) catalysis that I interpret in the context of the complex mechanism of sulfide oxidation. I also demonstrate that sulfide oxidation is a process associated with a mass dependence that can be described as not conforming to the mass dependence typically associated with equilibrium isotope exchange. This observation has implications for the inclusion of oxidative processes in environmental- and global-scale models of the sulfur cycle based on the mass balance of all four isotopes of sulfur. The contents of this dissertation provide key reference information on isotopic fractionation factors in aqueous sulfur systems that will have far-reaching applicability to studies of the sulfur cycle in a wide variety of natural settings.

EL "PASS THROUGH" DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO EN LOS PRECIOS DE BIENES TRANSABLES Y NO TRANSABLES EN COSTA RICA

Este trabajo estima el coeficiente de pass through del tipo de cambio en los precios de bienes transables y no transables en Costa Rica, para el corto y el largo plazo. Se utiliza el análisis de mínimos cuadrados para estimar los coeficientes, y se explora la dinámica de ajuste de los modelos utilizando el análisis de vectores auto regresivo. Dentro de los principales resultados del modelo se encontró un coeficiente de pass through para los bienes transables de 13% en el corto plazo y de 68% en el largo plazo; para los bienes no transables, el pass through es de 10% y 52% en el corto y largo plazo respectivamente. En el largo plazo se incluye un 7% de pass through indirecto producto del efecto de los precios de los transables en los de no transables. El estudio de la dinámica de ajuste de los precios de transables y no transables ante un choque del tipo de cambio mostró una duración de 17 y 27 meses respectivamente. Además se realizaron pruebas de causalidad de Granger y estabilidad del modelo. La primera mostró una relación de precedencia entre las variaciones de tipo de cambio e inflación, y entre inflación de los transables y de los no transables. La segunda evidencia un cambio estructural en el modelo de los no transables entre fines de 1995 e inicio de 1996. AbstractThis paper estimates short run and long run coefficients of exchange rate pass through in to the prices of tradable and non tradable goods in Costa Rica. The coefficients are estimated by OLS. A VAR analysis is conducted in order to estimate the dynamic process between exchange rate and inflation. Granger causality test and a stability test are conducted too. The short run pass through coefficients are 13% and 10%, for tradable and non tradable goods respectively and the long run coefficients are 68% and 52% in the same order. There is a second stage pass through of 7% included in the long run coefficient for non tradable goods. The dynamic analysis shows that the adjustment process of prices as a result of an exchange rate shock takes 17 months for tradable goods and 27 months for non tradable goods. The Granger causality test shows precedence between variation in the exchange rate and inflation, and between the prices of tradable and non tradable goods. There is statistical evidence of a structural change in the non tradable model between the end of 1995 and the beginning of 1996.

Characterization and age determination of Quaternary volcanism in the southern Ankaratra region (central Madagascar) through novel approaches in luminescence dating

This work introduces two novel approaches for the application of luminescence dating techniques to Quaternary volcanic eruptions: crystalline xenoliths from lava flows are demonstrated to be basically suitable for luminescence dating, and a set of phreatic explosion deposits from the Late Quaternary Vakinankaratra volcanic field in central Madagascar is successfully dated with infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL). Using a numerical model approach and experimental verification, the potential for thermal resetting of luminescence signals of xenoliths in lava flows is demonstrated. As microdosimetry is an important aspect when using sample material extracted from crystalline whole rocks, autoradiography using image plates is introduced to the field of luminescence dating as a method for detection and assessment of spatially resolved radiation inhomogeneities. Determinations of fading rates of feldspar samples have been observed to result in aberrant g-values if the pause between preheat and measurement in the delayed measurements was kept short. A systematic investigation reveals that the phenomenon is caused by the presence of three signal components with differing individual fading behaviour. As this is restricted to short pauses, it is possible to determine a minimal required delay between preheating and measurement after which the aberrant behaviour disappears. This is applied in the measuring of 12 samples from phreatic explosion deposits from the Antsirabe – Betafo region in the Late Quaternary Vakinankaratra volcanic field. The samples were taken from stratigraphically correlatable sections and appear to represent at least three phreatic events, one of which created the Lac Andraikiba maar near Antsirabe. The obtained ages indicate that the eruptive activity in the region started in the Late Pleistocene between 113.9 and 99.6 ka. A second layer in the Betafo area is dated at approximately 73 ka and the Lac Andraikiba deposits give an age between 63.9 and 50.7 ka. The youngest phreatic layer is dated between 33.7 and 20.7 ka. These ages are the first recorded direct ages of such volcanic deposits, as well as the first and only direct ages for the Late Quaternary volcanism in the Vakinankaratra volcanic field. This illustrates the huge potential of this new method for volcanology and geochronology, as it enables direct numerical dating of a type of volcanic deposit which has not been successfully directly dated by any other method so far.