Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analytical solutions of linear finite- and small-strain one-dimensional consolidation

Analytical solutions are presented for linear finite-strain one-dimensional consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading for both one- and two-way drainage. These solutions complement earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil layers without surcharge and initially normally consolidated soil layers with surcharge. Small-strain solutions for the consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading are also presented, and the relationship between the earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil without surcharge and the corresponding small-strain solutions, which was not addressed in the earlier work, is clarified. The new solutions for initially unconsolidated soil with surcharge loading can be applied to the analysis of low stress consolidation tests and to the partial validation of numerical solutions of non-linear finite-strain consolidation. They also clarify a formerly perplexing aspect of finite-strain solution charts first noted in numerical solutions. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Bifurcations in the non-dissipative dynamics of ultra cold atoms

We present the first experimental observation of several bifurcations in a controllable non-linear Hamiltonian system. Dynamics of cold atoms are used to test predictions of non-linear, non-dissipative Hamiltonian dynamics.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Seeing light vs dark lines: psychophysical performance is based on separate channels, limited by noise and uncertainty

Visual detection performance (d') is usually an accelerating function of stimulus contrast, which could imply a smooth, threshold-like nonlinearity in the sensory response. Alternatively, Pelli (1985 Journal of the Optical Society of America A 2 1508 - 1532) developed the 'uncertainty model' in which responses were linear with contrast, but the observer was uncertain about which of many noisy channels contained the signal. Such internal uncertainty effectively adds noise to weak signals, and predicts the nonlinear psychometric function. We re-examined these ideas by plotting psychometric functions (as z-scores) for two observers (SAW, PRM) with high precision. The task was to detect a single, vertical, blurred line at the fixation point, or identify its polarity (light vs dark). Detection of a known polarity was nearly linear for SAW but very nonlinear for PRM. Randomly interleaving light and dark trials reduced performance and rendered it non-linear for SAW, but had little effect for PRM. This occurred for both single-interval and 2AFC procedures. The whole pattern of results was well predicted by our Monte Carlo simulation of Pelli's model, with only two free parameters. SAW (highly practised) had very low uncertainty. PRM (with little prior practice) had much greater uncertainty, resulting in lower contrast sensitivity, nonlinear performance, and no effect of external (polarity) uncertainty. For SAW, identification was about v2 better than detection, implying statistically independent channels for stimuli of opposite polarity, rather than an opponent (light - dark) channel. These findings strongly suggest that noise and uncertainty, rather than sensory nonlinearity, limit visual detection.

Motion sharpening and contrast:Gain control precedes compressive non-linearity?

Blurred edges appear sharper in motion than when they are stationary. We (Vision Research 38 (1998) 2108) have previously shown how such distortions in perceived edge blur may be accounted for by a model which assumes that luminance contrast is encoded by a local contrast transducer whose response becomes progressively more compressive as speed increases. If the form of the transducer is fixed (independent of contrast) for a given speed, then a strong prediction of the model is that motion sharpening should increase with increasing contrast. We measured the sharpening of periodic patterns over a large range of contrasts, blur widths and speeds. The results indicate that whilst sharpening increases with speed it is practically invariant with contrast. The contrast invariance of motion sharpening is not explained by an early, static compressive non-linearity alone. However, several alternative explanations are also inconsistent with these results. We show that if a dynamic contrast gain control precedes the static non-linear transducer then motion sharpening, its speed dependence, and its invariance with contrast, can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Simulation and control of a stepping motor

Open-loop operatlon of the stepping motor exploits the inherent advantages of the machine. For near optimum operation: in this mode, however, an accurate system model is required to facilitate controller design. Such a model must be comprehensive and take account of the non-linearities inherent in the system. The result is a complex formulation which can be made manageable with a computational aid. A digital simulation of a hybrid type stepping motor and its associated drive circuit is proposed. The simulation is based upon a block diagram model which includes reasonable approximations to the major non-linearities. The simulation is shown to yield accurate performance predictions. The determination of the transfer functions is based upon the consideration of the physical processes involved rather than upon direct input-outout measurements. The effects of eddy currents, saturation, hysteresis, drive circuit characteristics and non-linear torque displacement characteristics are considered and methods of determining transfer functions, which take account of these effects, are offered. The static torque displacement characteristic is considered in detail and a model is proposed which predicts static torque for any combination of phase currents and shaft position. Methods of predicting the characteristic directly from machine geometry are investigated. Drive circuit design for high efficiency operation is considered and a model of a bipolar, bilevel circuit is proposed. The transfers between stator voltage and stator current and between stator current and air gap flux are complicated by the effects of eddy currents, saturation and hysteresis. Frequency response methods, combined with average inductance measurements, are shown to yield reasonable transfer functions. The modelling procedure and subsequent digital simulation is concluded to be a powerful method of non-linear analysis.

A study of magnetic non-linearity and finite length effects in solid iron subjected to a travelling MMF wave

This thesis describes an experimental and analytic study of the effects of magnetic non-linearity and finite length on the loss and field distribution in solid iron due to a travelling mmf wave. In the first half of the thesis, a two-dimensional solution is developed which accounts for the effects of both magnetic non-linearity and eddy-current reaction; this solution is extended, in the second half, to a three-dimensional model. In the two-dimensional solution, new equations for loss and flux/pole are given; these equations contain the primary excitation, the machine parameters and factors describing the shape of the normal B-H curve. The solution applies to machines of any air-gap length. The conditions for maximum loss are defined, and generalised torque/frequency curves are obtained. A relationship between the peripheral component of magnetic field on the surface of the iron and the primary excitation is given. The effects of magnetic non-linearity and finite length are combined analytically by introducing an equivalent constant permeability into a linear three-dimensional analysis. The equivalent constant permeability is defined from the non-linear solution for the two-dimensional magnetic field at the axial centre of the machine to avoid iterative solutions. In the linear three-dimensional analysis, the primary excitation in the passive end-regions of the machine is set equal to zero and the secondary end faces are developed onto the air-gap surface. The analyses, and the assumptions on which they are based, were verified on an experimental machine which consists of a three-phase rotor and alternative solid iron stators, one with copper end rings, and one without copper end rings j the main dimensions of the two stators are identical. Measurements of torque, flux /pole, surface current density and radial power flow were obtained for both stators over a range of frequencies and excitations. Comparison of the measurements on the two stators enabled the individual effects of finite length and saturation to be identified, and the definition of constant equivalent permeability to be verified. The penetration of the peripheral flux into the stator with copper end rings was measured and compared with theoretical penetration curves. Agreement between measured and theoretical results was generally good.

The spatial patterns of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in elderly non-demented patients and patients with Alzheimer’s disease

The spatial patterns of diffuse, primitive, classic and compact beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits were studied in the medial temporal lobe in 14 elderly, non-demented patients (ND) and in nine patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In both patient groups, Abeta deposits were clustered and in a number of tissues, a regular periodicity of Abeta deposit clusters was observed parallel to the tissue boundary. The primitive deposit clusters were significantly larger in the AD cases but there were no differences in the sizes of the diffuse and classic deposit clusters between patient groups. In AD, the relationship between Abeta deposit cluster size and density in the tissue was non-linear. This suggested that cluster size increased with increasing Abeta deposit density in some tissues while in others, Abeta deposit density was high but contained within smaller clusters. It was concluded that the formation of large clusters of primitive deposits could be a factor in the development of AD.

Transition in inclined internally heated fluid layers

Non-linear solutions and studies of their stability are presented for flows in a homogeneously heated fluid layer under the influence of a constant pressure gradient or when the mass flux across any lateral cross-section of the channel is required to vanish. The critical Grashof number is determined by a linear stability analysis of the basic state which depends only on the z-coordinate perpendicular to the boundary. Bifurcating longitudinal rolls as well as secondary solutions depending on the streamwise x-coordinate are investigated and their amplitudes are determined as functions of the supercritical Grashof number for various Prandtl numbers and angles of inclination of the layer. Solutions that emerge from a Hopf bifurcation assume the form of propagating waves and can thus be considered as steady flows relative to an appropriately moving frame of reference. The stability of these solutions with respect to three-dimensional disturbances is also analyzed in order to identify possible bifurcation points for evolving tertiary flows.

Mathematical modelling and control of agitated extraction columns

Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.

Formulation of topical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents

Reversed-pahse high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) methods were developed for the assay of indomethacin, its decomposition products, ibuprofen and its (tetrahydro-2-furanyl)methyl-, (tetrahydro-2-(2H)pyranyl)methyl- and cyclohexylmethyl esters. The development and application of these HPLC systems were studied. A number of physico-chemical parameters that affect percutaneous absorption were investigated. The pKa values of indomethacin and ibuprofen were determined using the solubility method. Potentiometric titration and the Taft equation were also used for ibuprofen. The incorporation of ethanol or propylene glycol in the solvent resulted in an improvement in the aqueous solubility of these compounds. The partition coefficients were evaluated in order to establish the affinity of these drugs towards the stratum corneum. The stability of indomethacin and of ibuprofen esters were investigated and the effect of temperature and pH on the decomposition rates were studied. The effect of cetyltrimethylammonium bromide on the alkaline degradation of indomethacin was also followed. In the presence of alcohol, indomethacin alcoholysis was observed and the kinetics of decomposition were subjected to non-linear regression analysis and the rate constants for the various pathways were quantified. The non-isothermal, sufactant non-isoconcentration and non-isopH degradation of indomethacin were investigated. The analysis of the data was undertaken using NONISO, a BASIC computer program. The degradation profiles obtained from both non-iso and iso-kinetic studies show that there is close concordance in the results. The metabolic biotransformation of ibuprofen esters was followed using esterases from hog liver and rat skin homogenates. The results showed that the esters were very labile under these conditions. The presence of propylene glycol affected the rates of enzymic hydrolysis of the ester. The hydrolysis is modelled using an equation involving the dielectric constant of the medium. The percutaneous absorption of indomethacin and of ibuprofen and its esters was followed from solutions using an in vitro excised human skin model. The absorption profiles followed first order kinetics. The diffusion process was related to their solubility and to the human skin/solvent partition coefficient. The percutaneous absorption of two ibuprofen esters from suspensions in 20% propylene glycol-water were also followed through rat skin with only ibuprofen being detected in the receiver phase. The sensitivity of ibuprofen esters to enzymic hydrolysis compared to the chemical hydrolysis may prove valuable in the formulation of topical delivery systems.

Temporal finite elements in the dynamic analysis of structures

This thesis demonstrates that the use of finite elements need not be confined to space alone, but that they may also be used in the time domain, It is shown that finite element methods may be used successfully to obtain the response of systems to applied forces, including, for example, the accelerations in a tall structure subjected to an earthquake shock. It is further demonstrated that at least one of these methods may be considered to be a practical alternative to more usual methods of solution. A detailed investigation of the accuracy and stability of finite element solutions is included, and methods of applications to both single- and multi-degree of freedom systems are described. Solutions using two different temporal finite elements are compared with those obtained by conventional methods, and a comparison of computation times for the different methods is given. The application of finite element methods to distributed systems is described, using both separate discretizations in space and time, and a combined space-time discretization. The inclusion of both viscous and hysteretic damping is shown to add little to the difficulty of the solution. Temporal finite elements are also seen to be of considerable interest when applied to non-linear systems, both when the system parameters are time-dependent and also when they are functions of displacement. Solutions are given for many different examples, and the computer programs used for the finite element methods are included in an Appendix.

Polynomial function intervals for floating-point software verification

The focus of our work is the verification of tight functional properties of numerical programs, such as showing that a floating-point implementation of Riemann integration computes a close approximation of the exact integral. Programmers and engineers writing such programs will benefit from verification tools that support an expressive specification language and that are highly automated. Our work provides a new method for verification of numerical software, supporting a substantially more expressive language for specifications than other publicly available automated tools. The additional expressivity in the specification language is provided by two constructs. First, the specification can feature inclusions between interval arithmetic expressions. Second, the integral operator from classical analysis can be used in the specifications, where the integration bounds can be arbitrary expressions over real variables. To support our claim of expressivity, we outline the verification of four example programs, including the integration example mentioned earlier. A key component of our method is an algorithm for proving numerical theorems. This algorithm is based on automatic polynomial approximation of non-linear real and real-interval functions defined by expressions. The PolyPaver tool is our implementation of the algorithm and its source code is publicly available. In this paper we report on experiments using PolyPaver that indicate that the additional expressivity does not come at a performance cost when comparing with other publicly available state-of-the-art provers. We also include a scalability study that explores the limits of PolyPaver in proving tight functional specifications of progressively larger randomly generated programs. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.