Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1/July 2011- (updated May 2013)

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the 2008 financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, confirming the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the SMCs in this sector. The Arab Spring brought this trend to an abrupt halt in early 2011, but it may resume after 2014 with the gradual democratisation process, despite the economic slowdown of the European Union – its main market. This paper looks at whether this trend will continue up to 2030, and provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in SMCs for 2030: i) reference scenario, ii) common (cooperation) sustainable development scenario, iii) polarised (regional) development scenario and iv) failed development – decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourist arrivals will increase. However, three main factors will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in the SMCs: security, competitiveness linked to the efficient use of ICT, and adjustment to climate change.

What scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean in 2030 in the wake of the Arab spring? MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 2, October 2011 (Updated 25 February 2013)

In the wake of the Arab Spring, the Southern Mediterranean region has reached a turning point in its history, presenting many opportunities and challenges for the EU. In this MEDPRO Policy Paper, Rym Ayadi and Carlo Sessa explore various possible scenarios that could play out in EU-Mediterranean relations over the next two decades but find, lamentably, that the EU has set itself on a ‘business as usual’ course, leaving the region open to further polarisation and the involvement of other external players.

Bringing South Caucasus Closer to Europe: Achievements and Challenges in ENP Implantation. Natolin Research Paper 03/March 2011

While the initial Commission Communication on Wider Europe (March 2003) did not include Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan in the forthcoming policy for the EU’s new neighbourhood, the Southern Caucasus region has now gained considerable attention in the framework of the ENP and beyond, not least because of security considerations. The ENP undoubtedly represents a step forward in the EU’s policy towards Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, yet its implementation highlights major differences between the three countries and important weaknesses in all three of them. The Eastern Partnership addresses some of these weaknesses and it also significantly strengthens the EU’s offer to South Caucasus countries, which is now fully in line with the perspectives proposed to the Western NIS. The paper highlights five main conclusions and recommendations: • Political, economic, social and diplomatic developments in the South Caucasus in the 2000's highlight both diverging trends and the persistence of tensions between the three countries. They also have different aspirations vis-à-vis the EU and different records in ENP implementation. The EU should therefore mainly rely upon an individual approach towards each country. • While bilateral relations should form the basis of the EU's approach, most of the challenges faced by Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are not confined to national borders and require regional solutions. This applies primarily, but not exclusively, to the unresolved conflicts. The EU should promote targeted regional cooperation including, inter alia, confidence-building measures to address indirectly the protracted conflicts and measures supporting drivers of change, which play a critical role in the confidence-building process; • Under the ENP, especially since the opening of negotiations for association agreements and with the perspective of DCFTA, trade-related issues, market and regulatory reform have become prominent in the EU's relations with all three Caucasus countries. At the same time, the priorities identified when the ENP was launched, i.e. good governance and the rule of law, still correspond to major challenges in the South Caucasus. The EU should more clearly prioritise good governance and the rule of law as the basis of both the ENP and successful reforms; • In all partner countries (but even more so in the South Caucasus), ENP implementation has been adversely affected by poor administrative capacities and weak institutional coordination. The EU should increasingly focus on institutional reform/capacity building in its support to partner countries and ensure that the link between the ENP and domestic reform processes is strengthened; • In the South Caucasus the EU has recently concentrated on a few assistance tools such as budget support, Twinning and TAIEX. While these instruments undoubtedly bring an added value, they should be better combined with tools allowing for greater flexibility and targeting non-governmental actors, e.g. EIDHR/NSA.

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Agriculture in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 28/March 2013

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socioecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years. In spite of country differences, a future path of sustainable development is possible in the region. Water withdrawals could decrease, preserving renewable water resources and reversing the negative effects on agricultural production and rural society. This, however, requires a combination across the region of technical, managerial, economic, social and institutional changes that together foster a substantive structural change. A balanced implementation of water supply-enhancing and demand-management measures along with improved governance are key to attaining a cost-effective sustainable future in which economic growth, a population increase and trade expansion are compatible with the conservation of water resources.

Energy Efficiency: Trends and Perspectives in the Southern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 21/December 2012

This paper has two objectives. First, it attempts to establish the potential of policies on energy efficiency and energy demand-side management in the southern Mediterranean region. Second, by examining past trends in energy intensity and trends up to 2030, it analyses the prospects and costs of such policies, compared with expected developments in the price of energy resources. Based on both analyses (MEDPRO WP4) and on prospects for growth (MEDPRO WP8), it seems that energy intensity in the Mediterranean should fall perceptibly by approximately 13% in the next 20 years. But given the programmed energy mix, this will not limit emissions of CO2, which are likely to increase by more than 90%. The paper first presents the rationale for demand-side management (DSM) policies. After a general discussion of concepts, it tackles the question of instruments and measures for implementing such policies, before posing the question of the cost-efficiency approach for monitoring the measures the authorities introduce. Secondly, the paper assesses energy consumption and energy efficiency in the countries of the southern Mediterranean and the ways in which their main economic sectors have changed in recent decades. The third section outlines the demand management measures introduced and, taking Tunisia and Egypt as examples, estimates the cost of such policies. The fourth and last section offers a forecast analysis of energy consumption in the Mediterranean up to 2030, highlighting probable trends in terms of final consumption, energy intensity, energy mix and emissions of CO2. The section concludes with estimates in terms of cost, comparing objectives for lower intensity, results in terms of resource savings and the types of costs this approach represents.

Le role des politiques monétaires et la convergence macroeconomique sur le développement des systèmes financiers dans les pays du sud de la Méditerranée. = The role of monetary policies and macroeconomic convergence in the development of financial systems in south Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 12/April 2012

This MEDPRO Technical Report shows that the monetary and exchange rate policies conducted by central banks in the South Mediterranean region display apparent homogeneity in their operational frameworks, albeit with some specificities and differing degrees of advancement. While central banks state that price stability is their ultimate objective, failures to control interest rates as operational objectives of monetary policy result in monetary authorities resorting to quantitative approaches to monetary policy, meaning that monetary aggregates and credit targets are being used as intermediate targets of monetary policy. An econometric exercise limited to Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) has been conducted to analyse the potential scenarios of convergence and monetary policy coordination. Given the high structural heterogeneity and the slow pace of real convergence due to weak commercial integration in the Maghreb, results nevertheless show alternative dynamics in the integration of effective nominal exchange rates, as well as a complete convergence dynamic in exchange rate policies. Partial convergence of monetary policies regarding the stabilisation of inflation rates remains an open option for a transitional phase where financial integration is low.

Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean: promise or peril? Egmont Paper No. 65, May 2014

From the Introduction. In order to address the different challenges and opportunities on energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Levant Basin, EGMONT – The Royal Institute for International Relations of Belgium – together with the Atlantic Council, and supported by H. E. Belgian Minister for Foreign Affairs Didier Reynders, opened an expert dialogue in 2013 in order to look at how the management of the new energy resources could act as a vector of cooperation instead of conflict between the concerned countries. The activities have targeted finding new possibilities for cooperation on political and security challenges, energy infrastructure development, the regulatory and legal framework, environmental concerns, and bilateral and regional structures, in a manner that enhances stability and security in the region, increases European energy security, contributes to rather than hinders a comprehensive Cyprus settlement, and promotes wider regional cooperation.

(Table 1) Age control points of ODP Site 160-968

The astronomical timescale of the Eastern Mediterranean Plio-Pleistocene builds on tuning of sapropel layers to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. A 3000-year precession lag has become instrumental in the tuning procedure as radiocarbon dating revealed that the midpoint of the youngest sapropel, S1, in the early Holocene occurred approximately 3000 years after the insolation maximum. The origin of the time lag remains elusive, however, because sapropels are generally linked to maximum African monsoon intensities and transient climate modeling results indicate an in-phase behavior of the African monsoon relative to precession forcing. Here we present new high-resolution records of bulk sediment geochemistry and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes from ODP Site 968 in the Eastern Mediterranean. We show that the 3000-year precession time lag of the sapropel midpoints is consistent with (1) the global marine isotope chronology, (2) maximum (monsoonal) precipitation conditions in the Mediterranean region and China derived from radiometrically dated speleothem records, and (3) maximum atmospheric methane concentrations in Antarctica ice cores. We show that the time lag relates to the occurrence of precession-paced North Atlantic cold events, which systematically delayed the onset of strong boreal summer monsoon intensity. Our findings may also explain a non-stationary behavior of the African monsoon over the past 3 million years due to more frequent and intensive cold events in the Late Pleistocene.

Urban intervention in Vila da Barca, Belem, Brazil: Achieving an adequate shelter

Low-income settlements have high incidences of social and environmental problems due to lack of government intervention; low-income settlements usually rely on community organizations or non-governmental entities to survive. In order to improve the quality of life in these communities, urban upgrading plans must be designed to achieve adequate living conditions. ^ This thesis proposes an urban intervention plan for a low-income settlement called Vila da Barca. This thesis contains three document parts. The first part defines the country, city, and settlement background, including housing and urban issues. The second part contains information gathered from case studies and theories on how similar urban cities around the world have solved their urban development problems. Lastly, the third part proposes a residential development plan that enhances the citizen's needs, such as shelter and safety. The proposed set of criteria applicable to Vila da Barca will serve as an example for other urban intervention projects. ^

The capacity challenges of nonprofit, community-based organizations

This mixed method case study explored the capacity challenges of neighbourhood based community centres related to the areas of governance and leadership, program delivery, financial management and human resources. The study involved the examination of three community centres with multi-mandates (i.e., provide programs and services to individuals from pre-school to seniors in the areas of social, educational, recreational and health) and utilized three phases of data collection: 1) surveys with board members; 2) focus groups with all boards and staff; and 3) document review which examined pertinent organizational policies and procedures. Questions were aimed at gaining an understanding of some of the challenges faced by staff and administrators of neighbourhood based community centres, as there a gap in the research in this particular area. Research findings identified a number of related challenges facing non-profit organizations specifically in the areas of funding and staffing and how these challenges impact both day to day operations and longer term sustainability. More research is needed with nonprofit organizations that have these broader mandates and diverse operational challenges, hence greater capacity building challenges.

Age determination and paleotemperatures of western Mediterranean Sea sediments

Sea surface temperature (SST) profiles over the last 25 kyr derived from alkenone measurements are studied in four cores from a W-E latitudinal transect encompassing the Gulf of Cadiz (Atlantic Ocean), the Alboran Sea, and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea (western Mediterranean). The results document the sensitivity of the Mediterranean region to the short climatic changes of the North Atlantic Ocean, particularly those involving the latitudinal position of the polar front. The amplitude of the SST oscillations increases toward the Tyrrhenian Sea, indicating an amplification effect of the Atlantic signal by the climatic regime of the Mediterranean region. All studied cores show a shorter cooling phase (700 years) for the Younger Dryas (YD) than that observed in the North Atlantic region (1200 years). This time diachroneity is related to an intra-YD climatic change documented in the European continent. Minor oscillations in the southward displacement of the North Atlantic polar front may also have driven this early warming in the studied area. During the Holocene a regional diachroneity propagating west to east is observed for the SST maxima, 11.5-10.2 kyr B.P. in the Gulf of Cadiz, 10-9 kyr B.P. in the Alboran Sea, and 8.9-8.4 kyr B.P. in the Thyrrenian Sea. A general cooling trend from these SST maxima to present day is observed during this stage, which is marked by short cooling oscillations with a periodicity of 730±40 years and its harmonics.

A internacionalização de empresas pela AIDA para os PALOP e/ou Brasil-Ceará

O presente trabalho tem como propósito responder a questão "qual o interesse estratégico de empresas do distrito de Aveiro se internacionalizarem para os Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa (PALOP) e/ ou Brasil - Ceará?". O objeto de estudo surgiu após a integração num estágio curricular na AIDA - Associação Industrial do Distrito de Aveiro - e levou à revisão da literatura dos temas estratégia e internacionalização, assim como ao trabalho de campo (6 entrevistas a colaboradoras da AIDA), proporcionando as componentes conceptual e empírica. Verificou-se que o setor de atividade é fundamental para o sucesso das empresas nas missões. Designadamente, bastantes empresas ligadas ao setor metalomecânico, que tendem a recorrer a estes mercados dos PALOP e/ ou Brasil - Ceará, alcançaram, em muitos casos, o sucesso - isto é, a concretização de negócios com novos clientes e / ou o investimento direto nesses países. O contributo do presente trabalho reside também na perspetiva, resultante de um inquérito desenvolido no âmbito do estágio no Gabinete de Relações Exteriores da AIDA, de que ainda que se verifique uma janela de oportunidade para algumas das empresas nos referidos mercados (PALOP e Brasil - Ceará), entende-se que, para o sucesso efetivo destas empresas, outras formas de empreender poderiam ser colocadas em prática, nomeadamente alianças estratégicas entre pequenas e médias empresas (PME) de setores semelhantes, a nível local (Portugal), para competirem a nível internacional com os respetivos líderes de mercado. Desta forma, sugere-se lutar pela competitividade não só nos PALOP mas também nos mercados desenvolvidos, tais como Alemanha, Estados Unidos da América e/ ou países escandinavos - pois somente com clientes exigentes e com a pressão de concorrentes fortes poder-se-ão criar indústrias desenvolvidas e capazes de competir ao mais elevado nível e pelos melhores clientes, com poder de compra e fontes de inovação (Porter, 1990). Estas lições parecem, por ezes, esquecidas, mas segundo Gibbs (2007) um dos propósitos da investigação é também o de lembrar o que foi esquecido e/ ou ignorado. As entrevistas realizadas ofereceram contributo na medida em que proporcionam a compreensão dos motivos para as empresas portuguesas escolherem estes mercados, das razões para o sucesso ou insucesso nos PALOP e/ ou Brasil - Ceará, do investimento e esforço por parte das entidades não-governamentais portuguesas em internacionalizar empresas do setor da metalomecânica, das forças e fraquezas das missões empresariais, de que aspetos fazem da AIDA um agente de mudança e das áreas em que poderia haver maior diligência por parte da AIDA.São também sugeridas recomendações a associação, entre outras, a inclusão das questões culturais de cada país nos estudos de mercado não só sobre PALOP e Brasil - Ceará, mas também nos estudos de mercado do distrito de Aveiro, assim como de Portugal, para fazer divulgação a potenciais importadores; melhoria de processos, implementando-se um software de gestão/ partilha de conhecimento das várias oportunidades de negócio, rentabilizando o processo de estabelecimento de interesse em realizar negócio, no âmbito do EEN (Entelprise Eumpe Netwrk); intervenção na plataforma do IAPMEI por informáticos habilitados; e armazenamento de dados em cloud storage - um serviço do género da Dropbox, de modo a rentabilizar o tempo dispendido, assim como a tornar as pastas acedidas via intranet mais pequenas.

Crowdfunding for non-commercial initiatives

Organizations and individuals dealing with non-commercial initiatives are in permanent search for funding. Crowdfunding is an alternative way of collecting funds from general public through Internet-based platforms, which is currently gaining popularity all over the world. There are several research initiatives in that field that show the influence of different factors on the success of campaigns, both with commercial and non-commercial objectives. Non-profit nature of the project is named among key predictors of positive outcome. In this context, the purpose of this work is to check whether the tendencies detected by scholars are valid for non-commercial initiatives, especially those having socially aware objectives, posted on the Belarusian crowdfunding platform Ulej. The method used for validation of the research hypotheses is binary logistic regression and statistical test. The results showed that the dependent variable success is influenced by such independent variables as the funding goal, the sum collected, the number of sponsors and the average pledge. On the other hand, the effect of the duration period is not significant. Inferential analysis shows that there is no difference in the level of success between commercial and non-commercial projects and that social orientation does not increase the likelihood of meeting financial goals. The findings are opposite to those provided in literature. However that could be explained by the short period of functioning of platform and the small number of projects.

Between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean : the late bronze age around the Tagus estuary (Portugal) : economic, social and cultural aspects

This paper deals with the importance, quantity and diversity of Late Bronze Age sites known around the Tagus estuary. The material culture points out to the existence of cultural stimuli from very different origins: from the Iberian Peninsula inner, the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean basin, related to the social organization and the economy of the populations that inhabited this region between the XIII century BC and the IX century BC, according to the available radiocarbon data. These populations interacted with the first Phoenicians that arrived to the region at the end of this period, after episodic relations of trading with their antecedents, from Central Mediterranean region.

Drivers of revenues and expenses in higher-education non-profit institutions

Double Degree