Economic impact of Turnip mosaic virus, Cauliflower mosaic virus and Beet mosaic virus in three Kenyan vegetables

Screenhouse experiments conducted in Kenya showed that inoculation of cabbage seedlings with Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV), either alone, or in combination with Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV), reduced the number and weight of marketable harvested heads. When viruses were inoculated simultaneously, 25% of cabbage heads were non-marketable, representing 20-fold loss compared with control. By contrast, inoculation with CaMV alone had insignificant effects on cabbage yield. This suggests that TuMV is the more detrimental of these pathogens, and its management should be a priority. Early exposure to TuMV produced cabbages that were 50% lighter than non-infected plants, but later infection was less damaging suggesting that controlling virus infection at the seedling stage is more important. TuMV was far less damaging to kale than it was to cabbage; although high proportions of TuMV-inoculated kale plants showed symptoms (> 90%), the marketability and quality of leaves were not significantly reduced, and no clear relationship existed between timing of infection and subsequent crop losses. Early inoculation of Swiss chard with Beet mosaic virus (BtMV) significantly impaired leaf quality (similar to 50% reduction in marketable leaf production), but the impact of disease was greatest in plants that had been inoculated at maturity, where average leaf losses were two and a half times those recorded in virus-free plants. Disease-management of BtMV in Swiss chard is important, therefore, not only at the seedling stage, but particularly when plants are transplanted from nursery to field.

The effects of minimal tillage, contour cultivation, in-field vegetative barriers and crop residues on phosphorus and sediment yields

Runoff, sediment, total phosphorus and total dissolved phosphorus losses in overland flow were measured for two years on unbounded plots cropped with wheat and oats. Half of the field was cultivated with minimum tillage (shallow tillage with a tine cultivator) and half was conventionally ploughed. Within each cultivation treatment there were different treatment areas (TAs). In the first year of the experiment, one TA was cultivated up and down the slope, one TA was cultivated on the contour, with a beetle bank acting as a vegetative barrier partway up the slope, and one had a mixed direction cultivation treatment, with cultivation and drilling conducted up and down the slope and all subsequent operations conducted on the contour. In the second year, this mixed treatment was replaced with contour cultivation. Results showed no significant reduction in runoff, sediment losses or total phosphorus losses from minimum tillage when compared to the conventional plough treatment, but there were increased losses of total dissolved phosphorus with minimum tillage. The mixed direction cultivation treatment increased surface runoff and losses of sediment and phosphorus. Increasing surface roughness with contour cultivation reduced surface runoff compared to up and down slope cultivation in both the plough and minimum tillage treatment areas, but this trend was not significant. Sediment and phosphorus losses in the contour cultivation treatment followed a very similar pattern to runoff. Combining contour cultivation with a vegetative barrier in the form of a beetle bank to reduce slope length resulted in a non-significant reduction in surface runoff, sediment and total phosphorus when compared to up and down slope cultivation, but there was a clear trend towards reduced losses. However, the addition of a beetle bank did not provide a significant reduction in runoff, sediment losses or total phosphorus losses when compared to contour cultivation, suggesting only a marginal additional benefit. The economic implications for farmers of the different treatment options are investigated in order to assess their suitability for implementation at a field scale.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Terrestrial carnivores and human food production: impact and management

1. The production of food for human consumption has led to an historical and global conflict with terrestrial carnivores, which in turn has resulted in the extinction or extirpation of many species, although some have benefited. At present, carnivores affect food production by: (i) killing human producers; killing and/or eating (ii) fish/shellfish; (iii) game/wildfowl; (iv) livestock; (v) damaging crops; (vi) transmitting diseases; and (vii) through trophic interactions with other species in agricultural landscapes. Conversely, carnivores can themselves be a source of dietary protein (bushmeat). 2. Globally, the major areas of conflict are predation on livestock and the transmission of rabies. At a broad scale, livestock predation is a customary problem where predators are present and has been quantified for a broad range of carnivore species, although the veracity of these estimates is equivocal. Typically, but not always, losses are small relative to the numbers held, but can be a significant proportion of total livestock mortality. Losses experienced by producers are often highly variable, indicating that factors such as husbandry practices and predator behaviour may significantly affect the relative vulnerability of properties in the wider landscape. Within livestock herds, juvenile animals are particularly vulnerable. 3. Proactive and reactive culling are widely practised as a means to limit predation on livestock and game. Historic changes in species' distributions and abundance illustrate that culling programmes can be very effective at reducing predator density, although such substantive impacts are generally considered undesirable for native predators. However, despite their prevalence, the effectiveness, efficiency and the benefit:cost ratio of culling programmes have been poorly studied. 4. A wide range of non-lethal methods to limit predation has been studied. However, many of these have their practical limitations and are unlikely to be widely applicable. 5. Lethal approaches are likely to dominate the management of terrestrial carnivores for the foreseeable future, but animal welfare considerations are increasingly likely to influence management strategies. The adoption of non-lethal approaches will depend upon proof of their effectiveness and the willingness of stakeholders to implement them, and, in some cases, appropriate licensing and legislation. 6. Overall, it is apparent that we still understand relatively little about the importance of factors affecting predation on livestock and how to manage this conflict effectively. We consider the following avenues of research to be essential: (i) quantified assessments of the loss of viable livestock; (ii) landscape-level studies of contiguous properties to quantify losses associated with variables such as different husbandry practices; (iii) replicated experimental manipulations to identify the relative benefit of particular management practices, incorporating (iv) techniques to identify individual predators killing stock; and (v) economic analyses of different management approaches to quantify optimal production strategies.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) inhibit vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation via differential effects on the cell cycle

Abnormal vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of both atherosclerosis and restenosis. Recent studies suggest that high-dose salicylates, in addition to inhibiting cyclooxygenase activity, exert an antiproliferative effect on VSMC growth both in-vitro and in-vivo. However, whether all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) exert similar anti proliferative effects on VSMCs, and do so via a common mechanism of action, remains to be shown. In this study, we demonstrate that the NSAIDs aspirin, sodium salicylate, diclofenac, ibuprofen, indometacin and sulindac induce a dose-dependent inhibition of proliferation in rat A10 VSMCs in the absence of significant cytotoxicity. Flow cytometric analyses showed that exposure of A10 cells to diclofenac, indometacin, ibuprofen and sulindac, in the presence of the mitotic inhibitor, nocodazole, led to a significant G0/G1 arrest. In contrast, the salicylates failed to induce a significant G1 arrest since flow cytometry profiles were not significantly different from control cells. Cyclin A levels were elevated, and hyperphosphorylated p107 was present at significant levels, in salicylate-treated A10 cells, consistent with a post-G1/S block, whereas cyclin A levels were low, and hypophosphorylated p107 was the dominant form, in cells treated with other NSAIDs consistent with a G1 arrest. The ubiquitously expressed cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitors, p21 and p27, were increased in all NSAID-treated cells. Our results suggest that diclofenac, indometacin, ibuprofen and sulindac inhibit VSMC proliferation by arresting the cell cycle in the G1 phase, whereas the growth inhibitory effect of salicylates probably affects the late S and/or G2/M phases. Irrespective of mechanism, our results suggest that NSAIDs might be of benefit in the treatment of certain vasculoproliferative disorders.

Combining physical, cultural and biological methods: prospects for integrated non-chemical weed management strategies

Physical, cultural and biological methods for weed control have developed largely independently and are often concerned with weed control in different systems: physical and cultural control in annual crops and biocontrol in extensive grasslands. We discuss the strengths and limitations of four physical and cultural methods for weed control: mechanical, thermal, cutting, and intercropping, and the advantages and disadvantages of combining biological control with them. These physical and cultural control methods may increase soil nitrogen levels and alter microclimate at soil level; this may be of benefit to biocontrol agents, although physical disturbance to the soil and plant damage may be detrimental. Some weeds escape control by these methods; we suggest that these weeds may be controlled by biocontrol agents. It will be easiest to combine biological control with. re and cutting in grasslands; within arable systems it would be most promising to combine biological control (especially using seed predators and foliar pathogens) with cover-cropping, and mechanical weeding combined with foliar bacterial and possibly foliar fungal pathogens. We stress the need to consider the timing of application of combined control methods in order to cause least damage to the biocontrol agent, along with maximum damage to the weed and to consider the wider implications of these different weed control methods.

Inhibition of vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs

Abnormal vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation is known to play an important role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, restenosis and instent stenosis. Recent studies suggest that salicylates, in addition to inhibiting cyclooxygenase activity, exert an antiproliferative effect on VSMC growth both in vitro and in vivo. However, whether all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) exert similar antiproliferative effects on VSMCs, and do so via a common mechanism of action, remains unknown. In the present study, we demonstrated that the NSAIDs, aspirin, ibuprofen and sulindac induced a dose-dependent inhibition of proliferation in rat A10 VSMCs (IC50 = 1666 mumol/L, 937 mumol/L and 520 mumol/L, respectively). These drugs did not show significant cytotoxic effects as determined by LDH release assay, even at the highest concentrations tested (aspirin, 5000 mumol/L; ibuprofen, 2500 mumol/L; and sulindac, 1000 mumol/L). Flow cytometric analyses showed that a 48 h exposure of A10 VSMCs to ibuprofen (1000 mumol/L) and sulindac (750 mumol/L) led to a significant G1 arrest (from 68.7 +/- 2.0% of cells in G1 to 76.6 +/- 2.2% and 75.8 +/- 2.2%, respectively, p < 0.05). In contrast, aspirin (2500 mumol/L) failed to induce a significant G1 arrest (68.1 +/- 5.2%). Clearer evidence of a G1 block was obtained by treatment of cells with the mitotic inhibitor, nocodazole (40 ng/ml), for the final 24 h of the experiment. Under these conditions, aspirin still failed to induce a G1 arrest (from 25.9 +/- 10.9% of cells in G1 to 19.6 +/- 2.3%) whereas ibuprofen and sulindac led to a significant accumulation of cells in G1(51.8% +/- 17.2% and 54.1% +/- 10.6%, respectively, p < 0.05). These results indicate that ibuprofen and sulindac inhibit VSMC proliferation by arresting the cell cycle in the G1 phase whereas the effect of aspirin appears to be independent of any special phase of the cell cycle. Irrespective of mechanism, our results suggest that NSAIDs might be of benefit to the treatment of vascular proliferative disorders.

New scientific paradigms for probiotics and prebiotics

The inaugural meeting of the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) was held May 3 to May 5 2002 in London, Ontario, Canada. A group of 63 academic and industrial scientists from around the world convened to discuss current issues in the science of probiotics and prebiotics. ISAPP is a non-profit organization comprised of international scientists whose intent is to strongly support and improve the levels of scientific integrity and due diligence associated with the study, use, and application of probiotics and prebiotics. In addition, ISAPP values its role in facilitating communication with the public and healthcare providers and among scientists in related fields on all topics pertinent to probiotics and prebiotics. It is anticipated that such efforts will lead to development of approaches and products that are optimally designed for the improvement of human and animal health and well being. This article is a summary of the discussions, conclusions, and recommendations made by 8 working groups convened during the first ISAPP workshop focusing on the topics of: definitions, intestinal flora, extra-intestinal sites, immune function, intestinal disease, cancer, genetics and genomics, and second generation prebiotics. Humans have evolved in symbiosis with an estimated 1014 resident microorganisms. However, as medicine has widely defined and explored the perpetrators of disease, including those of microbial origin, it has paid relatively little attention to the microbial cells that constitute the most abundant life forms associated with our body. Microbial metabolism in humans and animals constitutes an intense biochemical activity in the body, with profound repercussions for health and disease. As understanding of the human genome constantly expands, an important opportunity will arise to better determine the relationship between microbial populations within the body and host factors (including gender, genetic background, and nutrition) and the concomitant implications for health and improved quality of life. Combined human and microbial genetic studies will determine how such interactions can affect human health and longevity, which communication systems are used, and how they can be influenced to benefit the host. Probiotics are defined as live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts confer a health benefit on the host.1 The probiotic concept dates back over 100 years, but only in recent times have the scientific knowledge and tools become available to properly evaluate their effects on normal health and well being, and their potential in preventing and treating disease. A similar situation exists for prebiotics, defined by this group as non-digestible substances that provide a beneficial physiological effect on the host by selectively stimulating the favorable growth or activity of a limited number of indigenous bacteria. Prebiotics function complementary to, and possibly synergistically with, probiotics. Numerous studies are providing insights into the growth and metabolic influence of these microbial nutrients on health. Today, the science behind the function of probiotics and prebiotics still requires more stringent deciphering both scientifically and mechanistically. The explosion of publications and interest in probiotics and prebiotics has resulted in a body of collective research that points toward great promise. However, this research is spread among such a diversity of organisms, delivery vehicles (foods, pills, and supplements), and potential health targets such that general conclusions cannot easily be made. Nevertheless, this situation is rapidly changing on a number of important fronts. With progress over the past decade on the genetics of lactic acid bacteria and the recent, 2,3 and pending, 4 release of complete genome sequences for major probiotic species, the field is now armed with detailed information and sophisticated microbiological and bioinformatic tools. Similarly, advances in biotechnology could yield new probiotics and prebiotics designed for enhanced or expanded functionality. The incorporation of genetic tools within a multidisciplinary scientific platform is expected to reveal the contributions of commensals, probiotics, and prebiotics to general health and well being and explicitly identify the mechanisms and corresponding host responses that provide the basis for their positive roles and associated claims. In terms of human suffering, the need for effective new approaches to prevent and treat disease is paramount. The need exists not only to alleviate the significant mortality and morbidity caused by intestinal diseases worldwide (especially diarrheal diseases in children), but also for infections at non-intestinal sites. This is especially worthy of pursuit in developing nations where mortality is too often the outcome of food and water borne infection. Inasmuch as probiotics and prebiotics are able to influence the populations or activities of commensal microflora, there is evidence that they can also play a role in mitigating some diseases. 5,6 Preliminary support that probiotics and prebiotics may be useful as intervention in conditions including inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, allergy, cancer (especially colorectal cancer of which 75% are associated with diet), vaginal and urinary tract infections in women, kidney stone disease, mineral absorption, and infections caused by Helicobacter pylori is emerging. Some metabolites of microbes in the gut may also impact systemic conditions ranging from coronary heart disease to cognitive function, suggesting the possibility that exogenously applied microbes in the form of probiotics, or alteration of gut microecology with prebiotics, may be useful interventions even in these apparently disparate conditions. Beyond these direct intervention targets, probiotic cultures can also serve in expanded roles as live vehicles to deliver biologic agents (vaccines, enzymes, and proteins) to targeted locations within the body. The economic impact of these disease conditions in terms of diagnosis, treatment, doctor and hospital visits, and time off work exceeds several hundred billion dollars. The quality of life impact is also of major concern. Probiotics and prebiotics offer plausible opportunities to reduce the morbidity associated with these conditions. The following addresses issues that emerged from 8 workshops (Definitions, Intestinal Flora, Extra-Intestinal Sites, Immune Function, Intestinal Disease, Cancer, Genomics, and Second Generation Prebiotics), reflecting the current scientific state of probiotics and prebiotics. This is not a comprehensive review, however the study emphasizes pivotal knowledge gaps, and recommendations are made as to the underlying scientific and multidisciplinary studies that will be required to advance our understanding of the roles and impact of prebiotics, probiotics, and the commensal microflora upon health and disease management.

Cost-benefit evaluation of routine influenza immunisation in people 65-74 years of age

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 65-74 years in the absence of co-morbidity. DESIGN: Primary research: randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: People without risk factors for influenza or contraindications to vaccination were identified from 20 general practitioner (GP) practices in Liverpool in September 1999 and invited to participate in the study. There were 5875/9727 (60.4%) people aged 65-74 years identified as potentially eligible and, of these, 729 (12%) were randomised. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomised to receive either influenza vaccine or placebo (ratio 3:1), with all individuals receiving pneumococcal vaccine unless administered in the previous 10 years. Of the 729 people randomised, 552 received vaccine and 177 received placebo; 726 individuals were administered pneumococcal vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION: GP attendance with influenza-like illness (ILI) or pneumonia (primary outcome measure); or any respiratory symptoms; hospitalisation with a respiratory illness; death; participant self-reported ILI; quality of life (QoL) measures at 2, 4 and 6 months post-study vaccination; adverse reactions 3 days after vaccination. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to identify the incremental cost associated with the avoidance of episodes of influenza in the vaccination population and an impact model was used to extrapolate the cost-effectiveness results obtained from the trial to assess their generalisability throughout the NHS. RESULTS: In England and Wales, weekly consultations for influenza and ILI remained at baseline levels (less than 50 per 100,000 population) until week 50/1999 and then increased rapidly, peaking during week 2/2000 with a rate of 231/100,000. This rate fell within the range of 'higher than expected seasonal activity' of 200-400/100,000. Rates then quickly declined, returning to baseline levels by week 5/2000. The predominant circulating strain during this period was influenza A (H3N2). Five (0.9%) people in the vaccine group were diagnosed by their GP with an ILI compared to two (1.1%) in the placebo group [relative risk (RR), 0.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.16 to 4.1]. No participants were diagnosed with pneumonia by their GP and there were no hospitalisations for respiratory illness in either group. Significantly fewer vaccinated individuals self-reported a single ILI (4.6% vs 8.9%, RR, 0.51; 95% CI for RR, 0.28 to 0.96). There was no significant difference in any of the QoL measurements over time between the two groups. Reported systemic side-effects showed no significant differences between groups. Local side-effects occurred with a significantly increased incidence in the vaccine group (11.3% vs 5.1%, p = 0.02). Each GP consultation avoided by vaccination was estimated from trial data to generate a net NHS cost of 174 pounds. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was seen between groups for the primary outcome measure, although the trial was underpowered to demonstrate a true difference. Vaccination had no significant effect on any of the QoL measures used, although vaccinated individuals were less likely to self-report ILI. The analysis did not suggest that influenza vaccination in healthy people aged 65-74 years would lead to lower NHS costs. Future research should look at ways to maximise vaccine uptake in people at greatest risk from influenza and also the level of vaccine protection afforded to people from different age and socio-economic populations.

Economic models and algorithms for distributed systems

Distributed computing paradigms for sharing resources such as Clouds, Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. While there are some success stories such as PlanetLab, OneLab, BOINC, BitTorrent, and SETI@home, a widespread use of these technologies for business applications has not yet been achieved. In a business environment, mechanisms are needed to provide incentives to potential users for participating in such networks. These mechanisms may range from simple non-monetary access rights, monetary payments to specific policies for sharing. Although a few models for a framework have been discussed (in the general area of a "Grid Economy"), none of these models has yet been realised in practice. This book attempts to fill this gap by discussing the reasons for such limited take-up and exploring incentive mechanisms for resource sharing in distributed systems. The purpose of this book is to identify research challenges in successfully using and deploying resource sharing strategies in open-source and commercial distributed systems.

De-agrarianization, re-agrarianization and local economic development: re-orientating livelihoods in African artisanal mining communities

This article contributes to the debate on livelihood diversification in rural sub-Saharan Africa, focusing specifically on the growing economic importance of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in the region. The precipitous decline in the value of many export crops and the removal of subsidies on crucial inputs such as fertilizers have made smallholder production unviable, forcing many farmers to ‘branch out’ into non-farm activities to supplement their incomes. One of the more popular destinations for poor farmers is the low-tech ASM sector which, because of its low barriers to entry, has absorbed millions of rural Africans over the past two decades, the majority of whom are engaged in the extraction of near-surface mineral deposits located on concessions that have been demarcated to multinational corporations. The efforts made hitherto to control this illegal mining activity, both through force and regulation, however, have had little effect, forcing many of the region’s governments and private sector partners to ‘re-think’ their approaches. One strategy that has gained considerable attention throughout the region is intensified support for agrarian-orientated activities, many of which, despite the problems plaguing smallholder agricultural sector and challenges with making it more economically sustainable, are being lauded as appropriate ‘alternative’ sources of employment to artisanal mining. After examining where artisanal mining fits into the de-agrarianization ‘puzzle’ in sub-Saharan Africa, the article critiques the efficacy of ‘re-agrarianization’ as a strategy for addressing the region’s illegal mining problem. A case study of Ghana is used to shed further light on these issues.

The effect of the year of wheat variety release on productivity and stability of performance on two organic and two non-organic farms

Nineteen wheat cultivars, released from 1934 to 2000, were grown at two organic and two non-organic sites in each of 3 years. Assessments included grain yield, grain protein concentration, protein yield, disease incidence and green leaf area. The superiority of each cultivar (the sum of the squares of the differences between its mean in each environment and the mean of the best cultivar there, divided by twice the number of environments; CS) was calculated for yield, grain protein concentration and protein yield, and ranked in each environment. The yield and grain protein concentration CS were more closely correlated with cultivar release date at the non-organic sites than at organic sites. This difference may be attributed to higher yield levels with larger differences among cultivars at the non-organic sites, rather than to improved stability (i.e. similar ranks) across sites. The significant difference in the correlation of protein yield CS and cultivar age between organic and non-organic sites would support evidence that the ability to take up mineral nitrogen (N) compared to soil N has been a component of the selection conditions of more modern cultivars (released after 1989). This is supported by assessment of green leaf area (GLA), where more modern cultivars in the non-organic systems had greater late-season GLA, a trend that was not identified in organic conditions. This effect could explain the poor correlation between age and protein yield CS in organic compared to non-organic conditions where modern cultivars are selected to benefit from later nitrogen (N) availability which includes the spring nitrogen applications tailored to coincide with peak crop demand. Under organic management, N release is largely based on the breakdown of fertility-building crops incorporated (ploughed-in) in the previous autumn. The release of nutrients from these residues is dependent on the soil conditions, which includes temperature and microbial populations, in addition to the potential leaching effect of high winter rainfall in the UK. In organic cereal crops, early resource capture is a major advantage for maximizing the utilization of nutrients from residue breakdown. It is concluded that selection of cultivars under conditions of high agrochemical inputs selects for cultivars that yield well under maximal conditions in terms of nutrient availability and pest, disease and weed control. The selection conditions for breeding have a tendency to select cultivars which perform relatively better in non-organic compared to organic systems.

Testing for non-stationarity and cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break: an application to EuroSterling interest rates

In this paper we examine the order of integration of EuroSterling interest rates by employing techniques that can allow for a structural break under the null and/or alternative hypothesis of the unit-root tests. In light of these results, we investigate the cointegrating relationship implied by the single, linear expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates employing two techniques, one of which allows for the possibility of a break in the mean of the cointegrating relationship. The aim of the paper is to investigate whether or not the interest rate series can be viewed as I(1) processes and furthermore, to consider whether there has been a structural break in the series. We also determine whether, if we allow for a break in the cointegration analysis, the results are consistent with those obtained when a break is not allowed for. The main results reported in this paper support the conjecture that the ‘short’ Euro-currency rates are characterised as I(1) series that exhibit a structural break on or near Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992, whereas the ‘long’ rates are I(1) series that do not support the presence of a structural break. The evidence from the cointegration analysis suggests that tests of the expectations hypothesis based on data sets that include the ERM crisis period, or a period that includes a structural break, might be problematic if the structural break is not explicitly taken into account in the testing framework.

Economic and agronomic impact of commercialised GM crops: a meta-analysis

The present paper presents a meta-analysis of the economic and agronomic performance of genetically modified (GM) crops worldwide. Bayesian, classical and non-parametric approaches were used to evaluate the performance of GM crops v. their conventional counterparts. The two main GM crop traits (herbicide tolerant (HT) and insect resistant (Bt)) and three of the main GM crops produced worldwide (Bt cotton, HT soybean and Bt maize) were analysed in terms of yield, production cost and gross margin. The scope of the analysis covers developing and developed countries, six world regions, and all countries combined. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that GM crops perform better than their conventional counterparts in agronomic and economic (gross margin) terms. Regarding countries’ level of development, GM crops tend to perform better in developing countries than in developed countries, with Bt cotton being the most profitable crop grown.

A method for the economic valuation of animal welfare benefits using a single welfare score

Unless the benefits to society of measures to protect and improve the welfare of animals are made transparent by means of their valuation they are likely to go unrecognised and cannot easily be weighed against the costs of such measures as required, for example, by policy-makers. A simple single measure scoring system, based on the Welfare Quality® index, is used, together with a choice experiment economic valuation method, to estimate the value that people place on improvements to the welfare of different farm animal species measured on a continuous (0-100) scale. Results from using the method on a survey sample of some 300 people show that it is able to elicit apparently credible values. The survey found that 96% of respondents thought that we have a moral obligation to safeguard the welfare of animals and that over 72% were concerned about the way farm animals are treated. Estimated mean annual willingness to pay for meat from animals with improved welfare of just one point on the scale was £5.24 for beef cattle, £4.57 for pigs and £5.10 for meat chickens. Further development of the method is required to capture the total economic value of animal welfare benefits. Despite this, the method is considered a practical means for obtaining economic values that can be used in the cost-benefit appraisal of policy measures intended to improve the welfare of animals.