Bayesian invariant measurements of generalisation

The problem of evaluating different learning rules and other statistical estimators is analysed. A new general theory of statistical inference is developed by combining Bayesian decision theory with information geometry. It is coherent and invariant. For each sample a unique ideal estimate exists and is given by an average over the posterior. An optimal estimate within a model is given by a projection of the ideal estimate. The ideal estimate is a sufficient statistic of the posterior, so practical learning rules are functions of the ideal estimator. If the sole purpose of learning is to extract information from the data, the learning rule must also approximate the ideal estimator. This framework is applicable to both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods, with arbitrary statistical models, and to supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning schemes.

TATPred:a Bayesian method for the identification of twin arginine translocation pathway signal sequences

The twin arginine translocation (TAT) system ferries folded proteins across the bacterial membrane. Proteins are directed into this system by the TAT signal peptide present at the amino terminus of the precursor protein, which contains the twin arginine residues that give the system its name. There are currently only two computational methods for the prediction of TAT translocated proteins from sequence. Both methods have limitations that make the creation of a new algorithm for TAT-translocated protein prediction desirable. We have developed TATPred, a new sequence-model method, based on a Nave-Bayesian network, for the prediction of TAT signal peptides. In this approach, a comprehensive range of models was tested to identify the most reliable and robust predictor. The best model comprised 12 residues: three residues prior to the twin arginines and the seven residues that follow them. We found a prediction sensitivity of 0.979 and a specificity of 0.942.

Capital 2.0 capital formation and legal risk in a new global economic order from fiat to exit: including case studies of the proposed transatlantic trade and investment partnership between the United States and the European Union and the financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China

Following the intrinsically linked balance sheets in his Capital Formation Life Cycle, Lukas M. Stahl explains with his Triple A Model of Accounting, Allocation and Accountability the stages of the Capital Formation process from FIAT to EXIT. Based on the theoretical foundations of legal risk laid by the International Bar Association with the help of Roger McCormick and legal scholars such as Joanna Benjamin, Matthew Whalley and Tobias Mahler, and founded on the basis of Wesley Hohfeld’s category theory of jural relations, Stahl develops his mutually exclusive Four Determinants of Legal Risk of Law, Lack of Right, Liability and Limitation. Those Four Determinants of Legal Risk allow us to apply, assess, and precisely describe the respective legal risk at all stages of the Capital Formation Life Cycle as demonstrated in case studies of nine industry verticals of the proposed and currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States of America and the European Union, TTIP, as well as in the case of the often cited financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Having established the Four Determinants of Legal Risk and its application to the Capital Formation Life Cycle, Stahl then explores the theoretical foundations of capital formation, their historical basis in classical and neo-classical economics and its forefathers such as The Austrians around Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek and most notably and controversial, Karl Marx, and their impact on today’s exponential expansion of capital formation. Starting off with the first pillar of his Triple A Model, Accounting, Stahl then moves on to explain the Three Factors of Capital Formation, Man, Machines and Money and shows how “value-added” is created with respect to the non-monetary capital factors of human resources and industrial production. Followed by a detailed analysis discussing the roles of the Three Actors of Monetary Capital Formation, Central Banks, Commercial Banks and Citizens Stahl readily dismisses a number of myths regarding the creation of money providing in-depth insight into the workings of monetary policy makers, their institutions and ultimate beneficiaries, the corporate and consumer citizens. In his second pillar, Allocation, Stahl continues his analysis of the balance sheets of the Capital Formation Life Cycle by discussing the role of The Five Key Accounts of Monetary Capital Formation, the Sovereign, Financial, Corporate, Private and International account of Monetary Capital Formation and the associated legal risks in the allocation of capital pursuant to his Four Determinants of Legal Risk. In his third pillar, Accountability, Stahl discusses the ever recurring Crisis-Reaction-Acceleration-Sequence-History, in short: CRASH, since the beginning of the millennium starting with the dot-com crash at the turn of the millennium, followed seven years later by the financial crisis of 2008 and the dislocations in the global economy we are facing another seven years later today in 2015 with several sordid debt restructurings under way and hundred thousands of refugees on the way caused by war and increasing inequality. Together with the regulatory reactions they have caused in the form of so-called landmark legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, the JOBS Act of 2012 or the introduction of the Basel Accords, Basel II in 2004 and III in 2010, the European Financial Stability Facility of 2010, the European Stability Mechanism of 2012 and the European Banking Union of 2013, Stahl analyses the acceleration in size and scope of crises that appears to find often seemingly helpless bureaucratic responses, the inherent legal risks and the complete lack of accountability on part of those responsible. Stahl argues that the order of the day requires to address the root cause of the problems in the form of two fundamental design defects of our Global Economic Order, namely our monetary and judicial order. Inspired by a 1933 plan of nine University of Chicago economists abolishing the fractional reserve system, he proposes the introduction of Sovereign Money as a prerequisite to void misallocations by way of judicial order in the course of domestic and transnational insolvency proceedings including the restructuring of sovereign debt throughout the entire monetary system back to its origin without causing domino effects of banking collapses and failed financial institutions. In recognizing Austrian-American economist Schumpeter’s Concept of Creative Destruction, as a process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one, Stahl responds to Schumpeter’s economic chemotherapy with his Concept of Equitable Default mimicking an immunotherapy that strengthens the corpus economicus own immune system by providing for the judicial authority to terminate precisely those misallocations that have proven malignant causing default perusing the century old common law concept of equity that allows for the equitable reformation, rescission or restitution of contract by way of judicial order. Following a review of the proposed mechanisms of transnational dispute resolution and current court systems with transnational jurisdiction, Stahl advocates as a first step in order to complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle from FIAT, the creation of money by way of credit, to EXIT, the termination of money by way of judicial order, the institution of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court constituted by a panel of judges from the U.S. Court of International Trade and the European Court of Justice by following the model of the EFTA Court of the European Free Trade Association. Since the first time his proposal has been made public in June of 2014 after being discussed in academic circles since 2011, his or similar proposals have found numerous public supporters. Most notably, the former Vice President of the European Parliament, David Martin, has tabled an amendment in June 2015 in the course of the negotiations on TTIP calling for an independent judicial body and the Member of the European Commission, Cecilia Malmström, has presented her proposal of an International Investment Court on September 16, 2015. Stahl concludes, that for the first time in the history of our generation it appears that there is a real opportunity for reform of our Global Economic Order by curing the two fundamental design defects of our monetary order and judicial order with the abolition of the fractional reserve system and the introduction of Sovereign Money and the institution of a democratically elected Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court that commensurate with its jurisdiction extending to cases concerning the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership may complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle resolving cases of default with the transnational judicial authority for terminal resolution of misallocations in a New Global Economic Order without the ensuing dangers of systemic collapse from FIAT to EXIT.

New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

Root cause analysis applied to a finite element model's refinement of a negative stiffness structure

Negative Stiffness Structures are mechanical systems that require a decrease in the applied force to generate an increase in displacement. They are structures that possess special characteristics such as snap-through and bi-stability. All of these features make them particularly suitable for different applications, such as shock-absorption, vibration isolation and damping. From this point of view, they have risen awareness of their characteristics and, in order to match them to the application needed, a numerical simulation is of great interest. In this regard, this thesis is a continuation of previous studies in a circular negative stiffness structure and aims at refine the numerical model by presenting a new solution. To that end, an investigation procedure is needed. Amongst all of the methods available, root cause analysis was the chosen one to perform the investigation since it provides a clear view of the problem under analysis and a categorization of all the causes behind it. As a result of the cause-effect analysis, the main causes that have influence on the numerical results were obtained. Once all of the causes were listed, solutions to them were proposed and it led to a new numerical model. The numerical model proposed was of nonlinear type of analysis with hexagonal elements and a hyperelastic material model. The results were analyzed through force-displacement curves, allowing for the visualization of the structure’s energy recovery. When compared to the results obtained from the experimental part, it is evident that the trend is similar and the negative stiffness behaviour is present.

A formal model of real-time program compilation

Program compilation can be formally defined as a sequence of equivalence-preserving transformations, or refinements, from high-level language programs to assembler code, Recent models also incorporate timing properties, but the resulting formalisms are intimidatingly complex. Here we take advantage of a new, simple model of real-time refinement, based on predicate transformer semantics, to present a straightforward compilation formalism that incorporates real-time constraints. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Monetary channels of social inclusion: a case study of basic income and the Caixa Econômica Federal in Brazil

This article reports evidence of new monetary channels for social inclusion involving basic income policies and the Caixa Econômica Federal, a Brazilian government savings bank. Since the Plano Real (Brazilian currency) and the liberalization of banking in the 1990s, the realization of competitive advantages by the Caixa as social policy agent and the importance of citizenship cards differ from existing theories of bank change, financial inclusion and monetary policy. Multi-method research reveals the importance of 1) political theories of basic income, 2) conceptions of citizenship and social justice, and 3) a back to the future modernization of government banking. This provides alternatives to contemporary market-based banking theory, neo-liberal policies, private and non-governmental microfinance strategies, and theories in political economy about fiscal constraints to social policies. New monetary channels of change also suggest that zero sum theories about politics, monetary authority and social inclusion are amiss.

Políticas e modelos de gestão em unidades de fisioterapia: estratégias para a mudança

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Heart hypoplasia in an animal model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia

PURPOSE: In previous papers, we described a new experimental model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits, and we also reported noninvasive therapeutic strategies for prevention of the functional and structural immaturity of the lungs associated with this defect. In addition to lung hypoplasia, pulmonary hypertension, biochemical, and structural immaturity of the lungs, the hemodynamics of infants and animals with congenital diaphragmatic hernia are markedly altered. Hence, cardiac hypoplasia has been implicated as a possible cause of death in patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and it is hypothesized to be a probable consequence of fetal mediastinal compression by the herniated viscera. Cardiac hypoplasia has also been reported in lamb and rat models of congenital diaphragmatic hernia. The purpose of the present experiment was to verify the occurrence of heart hypoplasia in our new model of surgically produced congenital diaphragmatic hernia in fetal rabbits. METHODS: Twelve pregnant New Zealand rabbits underwent surgery on gestational day 24 or 25 (normal full gestational time - 31 to 32 days) to create left-sided diaphragmatic hernias in 1 or 2 fetuses per each doe. On gestational day 30, all does again underwent surgery, and the delivered fetuses were weighed and divided into 2 groups: control (non-surgically treated fetuses) (n = 12) and congenital diaphragmatic hernia (n = 9). The hearts were collected, weighed, and submitted for histologic and histomorphometric studies. RESULTS: During necropsy, it was noted that in all congenital diaphragmatic hernia fetuses, the left lobe of the liver herniated throughout the surgically created defect and occupied the left side of the thorax, with the deviation of the heart to the right side, compressing the left lung; consequently, this lung was smaller than the right one. The body weights of the animals were not altered by congenital diaphragmatic hernia, but heart weights were decreased in comparison to control fetuses. The histomorphometric analysis demonstrated that congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant decrease in the ventricular wall thickness and an increase in the interventricular septum thickness. CONCLUSION: Heart hypoplasia occurs in a rabbit experimental model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia. This model may be utilized for investigations in therapeutic strategies that aim towards the prevention or the treatment of heart hypoplasia caused by congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

On the identification of monetary (and other) shocks

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we construct a DSGE model which spells out explicitly the instrumentation of monetary policy. The interest rate is determined every period depending on the supply and demand for reserves which in turn are affected by fundamental shocks: unforeseeable changes in cash withdrawal, autonomous factors, technology and government spending. Unexpected changes in the monetary conditions of the economy are interpreted as monetary shocks. We show that these monetary shocks have the usual effects on economic activity without the need of imposing additional frictions as limited participation in asset markets or sticky prices. Second, we show that this view of monetary policy may have important consequences for empirical research. In the model, the contemporaneous correlations between interest rates, prices and output are due to the simultaneous effect of all fundamental shocks. We provide an example where these contemporaneous correlations may be misinterpreted as a Taylor rule. In addition, we use the sign of the impact responses of all shocks on output, prices and interest rates derived from the model to identify the sources of shocks in the data.

Long-run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy

This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call "frictional growth", i.e. the interaction between money growth and nominal frictions. After presenting theoretical models of this phenomenon, we construct an empirical model of the Spanish economy and, in this context, we evaluate the long-run inflation-unemployment trade for Spain and examine how recent policy changes have afected it.

Structural Interactions in Spatial Panels

Until recently, much effort has been devoted to the estimation of panel data regression models without adequate attention being paid to the drivers of diffusion and interaction across cross section and spatial units. We discuss some new methodologies in this emerging area and demonstrate their use in measurement and inferences on cross section and spatial interactions. Specifically, we highlight the important distinction between spatial dependence driven by unobserved common factors and those based on a spatial weights matrix. We argue that, purely factor driven models of spatial dependence may be somewhat inadequate because of their connection with the exchangeability assumption. Limitations and potential enhancements of the existing methods are discussed, and several directions for new research are highlighted.