The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Anadromous Rainbow Smelt and Tomcod in Connecticut: Assessment of populations, conservation status, and need for restoration plan

(beginning of rainbow smelt executive summary) Evidence indicates that anadromous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) populations in Connecticut and elsewhere in the northeast United States have severely declined. Several sampling programs have documented declines in Connecticut’s smelt populations over the last three decades (Marcy 1976a, Marcy 1976b, Millstone Environmental Laboratory 2005). Similar declines have also been documented in the Hudson River (ASA Analysis & Communication 2005) and in Massachusetts (personal communication, Brad Chase, MA Division of Marine Fisheries 2004). Recreational and commercial fisheries in the region for this species have virtually ceased (Blake and Smith 1984). The Connecticut Fish Advisory Committee of the Endangered Species Program has recommended that rainbow smelt be listed as threatened in Connecticut, and the National Marine Fisheries Service (2004) has recently listed rainbow smelt as a Federal Species of Concern. The purpose of this project is to develop an environmental history of rainbow smelt in Connecticut and surrounding regions, and document the current status of populations in Connecticut waters. An environmental history that assesses trends in abundance, environmental threats and historical efforts to ameliorate the threats will contribute to regional efforts to conserve these fish. Comprehensive review of the regional literature and trends associated with rainbow smelt has not been undertaken since Kendall (1926). Assessment of current abundance, distribution, areas of critical habitat, and whether the species is presently reproducing in state waters is critical for clarifying conservation status, designing a monitoring program and developing a recovery or enhancement plan, if this appears to be necessary. (beginning of tomcod executive summary) Atlantic tomcod (Microgadus tomcod) are believed to have declined significantly in Connecticut and other estuaries of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Several monitoring programs indicate that the species is scarce and/or declining in the region’s estuaries (Gottschall and Pacileo 2004, Molnar 2004, Millstone Environmental Laboratory 2005, ASA Analysis and Communication 2005). Once-active recreational (NMFS MRFSS 2005, http://www.st.nmfs.gov) and commercial fisheries for this species in Connecticut are now dormant. For the past 10 years, the Connecticut Fish Advisory Committee of the Endangered Species Program has recommended that studies be undertaken to quantify the status of tomcod populations and to determine if conservation actions should be initiated. The purpose of this project is to develop an environmental history of Atlantic tomcod in Connecticut and surrounding regions, and document the current status of populations in Connecticut waters. An environmental history that assesses trends in abundance, environmental threats and historical efforts to ameliorate the threats will contribute to regional efforts to conserve these fish. Assessment of current abundance, distribution, areas of critical habitat, and whether the species is presently reproducing in state waters is critical for determining conservation status, designing a monitoring program and developing a recovery or enhancement plan, if this appears to be necessary.

Aromic Units, Why We Need Them and How They Work

Quantum Chemistry is usually carried out using Atomic Units, so a careful discussion of these units is warranted.

Bexar County's dental safety net for children: An estimate of our current capacity and need

Introduction. It has been well established that poor uninsured children lack access to dental care and have greater dental needs than their insured counterparts. ^ Objective. To assess the capacity of Bexar County's dental safety net to treat children. To assess the dental needs of Bexar County children ages 0-18 who are uninsured or are Medicaid or SCHIP recipients. ^ Methods. Information was requested from dental safety net clinics that treat children ages 0-18. Data from the census, NHANES and other sources was used to estimate the dental needs. ^ Results. The capacity of the current safety net to treat children is 33,537 patient encounters per year. The dental needs of the community are 227,124 patient encounters per year. ^ Conclusion. The results of the study indicate that Bexar County is not prepared to treat the dental needs of the underserved children in San Antonio.^

Federally regulated institutional review boards: The aspects of a "model" IRB---Is the current system in need of a tune up or complete overhaul?

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs) are the primary gatekeepers for the protection of ethical standards of federally regulated research on human subjects in this country. This paper focuses on what general, broad measures that may be instituted or enhanced to exemplify a "model IRB". This is done by examining the current regulatory standards of federally regulated IRBs, not private or commercial boards, and how many of those standards have been found either inadequate or not generally understood or followed. The analysis includes suggestions on how to bring about changes in order to make the IRB process more efficient, less subject to litigation, and create standardized educational protocols for members. The paper also considers how to include better oversight for multi-center research, increased centralization of IRBs, utilization of Data Safety Monitoring Boards when necessary, payment for research protocol review, voluntary accreditation, and the institution of evaluation/quality assurance programs. ^ This is a policy study utilizing secondary analysis of publicly available data. Therefore, the research for this paper focuses on scholarly medical/legal journals, web information from the Department of Health and Human Services, Federal Drug Administration, and the Office of the Inspector General, Accreditation Programs, law review articles, and current regulations applicable to the relevant portions of the paper. ^ Two issues are found to be consistently cited by the literature as major concerns. One is a need for basic, standardized educational requirements across all IRBs and its members, and secondly, much stricter and more informed management of continuing research. There is no federally regulated formal education system currently in place for IRB members, except for certain NIH-based trials. Also, IRBs are not keeping up with research once a study has begun, and although regulated to do so, it does not appear to be a great priority. This is the area most in danger of increased litigation. Other issues such as voluntary accreditation and outcomes evaluation are slowing gaining steam as the processes are becoming more available and more sought after, such as JCAHO accrediting of hospitals. ^ Adopting the principles discussed in this paper should promote better use of a local IRBs time, money, and expertise for protecting the vulnerable population in their care. Without further improvements to the system, there is concern that private and commercial IRBs will attempt to create a monopoly on much of the clinical research in the future as they are not as heavily regulated and can therefore offer companies quicker and more convenient reviews. IRBs need to consider the advantages of charging for their unique and important services as a cost of doing business. More importantly, there must be a minimum standard of education for all IRB members in the area of the ethical standards of human research and a greater emphasis placed on the follow-up of ongoing research as this is the most critical time for study participants and may soon lead to the largest area for litigation. Additionally, there should be a centralized IRB for multi-site trials or a study website with important information affecting the trial in real time. There needs to be development of standards and metrics to assess the performance of the IRBs for quality assurance and outcome evaluations. The boards should not be content to run the business of human subjects' research without determining how well that function is actually being carried out. It is important that federally regulated IRBs provide excellence in human research and promote those values most important to the public at large.^

Assessing the need and options available for trauma physician funding in Texas

Efforts have been made to provide supplemental funding to emergency departments to offset the costs of uncompensated medical care. But a problem exists within the trauma system in Texas that has largely been overlooked by the state. This project will focus on the lack of funding available to physicians and on-call specialists who contract with hospitals to provide emergency care. ^ A lack of funding and reimbursement for emergency care is directly influencing the number of medical specialists willing to provide emergency treatment in hospitals on a contractual basis. A shortage of emergency physicians has an impact on the public health of all Texans who may need trauma care in a hospital. Specifically, a shortage of emergency physicians can lead to a complete denial of specialty emergency health care, a delay in patient treatment, and increased ambulance diversions. Quality and access barriers to emergency services undoubtedly threaten the stability of the trauma care system in Texas and the health status of its citizens. ^ In 2003, Texas took a significant step towards addressing the issue of uncompensated care provided by the trauma system and passed House Bill 3588, creating the Trauma Facilities and Emergency Medical Services Fund (“the Trauma Fund”). However, the primary shortfall to this legislation is that the Trauma Fund is only available to emergency medical service providers and hospitals. The Trauma Fund does little to help offset the cost incurred by contracting physicians and on-call specialists who provide emergency services to the uninsured. ^ This paper addresses how funding shortages for emergency department physicians negatively impact the trauma care system in Texas and the policy options available to create physician funding to offset the cost of uncompensated trauma care. Ultimately this paper concludes that although creating a new funding stream similar to the actions taken in other states would be a dramatic step towards addressing the problem, the political process in Texas may slow implementation of this option. Consequently, modifying existing legislation, although the weaker of the options, may be more attractive to those looking for immediate action. ^

Physician coding for mental illness reimbursement and the need for mental health parity

Many patients with anxiety and depression initially seek treatment from their primary care physicians. Changes in insurance coverage and current mental parity laws, make reimbursement for services a problem. This has led to a coding dilemma for physicians seeking payment for their services. This study seeks to determine first the frequency at which primary care physicians use alternative coding, and secondly, if physicians would change their coding practices, provided reimbursement was assured through changes in mental parity laws. A mail survey was sent to 260 randomly selected primary care physicians, who are family practice, internal medicine, and general practice physicians, and members of the Harris County Medical Society. The survey evaluated the physicians' demographics, the number of patients with psychiatric disorders seen by primary care physicians, the frequency with which physicians used alternative coding, and if mental parity laws changed, the rate at which physicians would use a psychiatric illness diagnosis as the primary diagnostic code. The overall response rate was 23%. Only 47 of the 59 physicians, who responded, qualified for the study and of those 45% used a psychiatric disorder to diagnose patients with a primary psychiatric disorder, 47% used a somatic/symptom disorder, and 8% used a medical diagnosis. From the physicians who would not use a psychiatric diagnosis as a primary ICD-9 code, 88% were afraid of not being reimbursed and 12% were worried about stigma or jeopardizing insurability. If payment were assured using a psychiatric diagnostic code, 81% physicians would use a psychiatric diagnosis as the primary diagnostic code. However, 19% would use an alternative diagnostic code in fear of stigmatizing and/or jeopardizing patients' insurability. Although the sample size of the study design was adequate, our survey did not have an ideal response rate, and no significant correlation was observed. However, it is evident that reimbursement for mental illness continues to be a problem for primary care physicians. The reformation of mental parity laws is necessary to ensure that patients receive mental health services and that primary care physicians are reimbursed. Despite the possibility of improved mental parity legislation, some physicians are still hesitant to assign patients with a mental illness diagnosis, due to the associated stigma, which still plays a role in today's society. ^

A proposed application of the attributable risk technique in the assessment of unmet need among newly organized populations

In the midst of health care reform, and as health care organizations reorganize to provide more cost-effective healthcare, the population is being shifted into new healthcare delivery systems such as health insurance purchasing alliances, and health maintenance organizations. These new models of delivery are usually organized within resource restricted and data limited environments. Health care planners are faced with the challenge of identifying priorities for preventive and primary care services within these newly organized populations (Medicare HMO, Medicaid HMO, etc.). The author proposes a technique usually employed in epidemiology--attributable risk estimation--as a planning methodology to establish preventive health priorities within newly organized populations. Illustrations of the methodology are provided utilizing the Texas 1992 population. ^

Returning Texas Senate Bill 530 back to 1100 Congress Avenue: The need for effective surveillance reporting of student fitness levels to Texas house representatives

Every Texas student is required to complete the FITNESSGRAM fitness assessment under legislation outlined in Senate Bill 530. This study described cardiovascular, body mass index (BMI), and overall fitness levels of students (grades 3–12) in the state of Texas during the 2009–2010 school year, and provides examples of how to effectively present results to Texas House Representatives using three unique health communication strategies. Given the Texas legislature mandates FITNESSGRAM collection yet did not require reporting according to their election district, the data were aggregated to 150 Texas House Representative Districts by sex and grade category to facilitate effective fitness data dissemination. Fitness data were also analyzed with results from the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) to provide insight into potential relationships between fitness and academic achievement. ^ The majority of students in Texas need improvement on at least 1 fitness assessment. In general, female students have superior fitness in elementary and middle school but the fitness edge is erased by high school. Female cardiovascular fitness deteriorates faster from elementary to high school compared to male students. Female BMI deteriorates and male BMI improves from elementary to high school. Cardiovascular fitness and overall fitness decreases from elementary to high school for both male and female students. ^ Student fitness was significantly and strongly independently correlated with academic achievement. Further analysis showed that House Representatives with TAKS scores in the top quartile consistently showed superior fitness. Small significant partial correlations remain between fitness and TAKS assessment after controlling for socioeconomic status. In general, correlations were stronger between female BMI and TAKS assessment compared to male students. Cardiovascular fitness was significantly correlated with TAKS assessment for both genders. This paper supports student fitness as a confounder in the relationship between socioeconomic status and academic achievement. Plus, student fitness has a strong correlation with academic that deserves further exploration. ^ Senate Bill 530 fails to organize and implement a health communication strategy that effectively disseminates the health data collected to stakeholders of interest. The lack of a vital health communication strategy results in an incomplete student health surveillance system. This paper outlines three unique strategies tailored to legislators. It is important to disseminate health information using a variety of methods tailored to your targeted audience. The use of interactive mapping technology presented (GIS) uses new technology that has the potential to effectively reach a large audience.^