Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

T-cell epitope prediction and immune complex simulation using molecular dynamics:state of the art and persisting challenges

Atomistic Molecular Dynamics provides powerful and flexible tools for the prediction and analysis of molecular and macromolecular systems. Specifically, it provides a means by which we can measure theoretically that which cannot be measured experimentally: the dynamic time-evolution of complex systems comprising atoms and molecules. It is particularly suitable for the simulation and analysis of the otherwise inaccessible details of MHC-peptide interaction and, on a larger scale, the simulation of the immune synapse. Progress has been relatively tentative yet the emergence of truly high-performance computing and the development of coarse-grained simulation now offers us the hope of accurately predicting thermodynamic parameters and of simulating not merely a handful of proteins but larger, longer simulations comprising thousands of protein molecules and the cellular scale structures they form. We exemplify this within the context of immunoinformatics.

Digital Art and Design

The desire to create unique things and give free rain to one's imagination served as a powerful impetus to the development of digital art and design software. The commoner was the use of computers the wider variety of professional software was developed. Nowadays the creators and computer designers are receiving more and more new and advanced programs that allow their ideas becoming virtual reality. This research paper looks at the history of the development of graphic editors from the simplest to the most modern and advanced. This brief survey includes the history of different graphic editors’ creation, their features and abilities. This paper highlights the two basic branches of graphic editors – these that are in free use and commercial graphic editors design software. The researcher selected the most powerful and influential graphic editors design software brands like Paint.NET and GIMP among free software and commercial Adobe Photoshop. This paper also dwells upon the way digital art transferred from the exclusively professional business into the hobby for ordinary users. This research paper bears implications for those who are interested in features and potentiality of most popular graphic editors design software.

Servitization:revisiting the state-of-the-art and research priorities

Purpose – This paper consolidates the servitization knowledge base from an organisational change perspective, identifying developed, developing and undeveloped topics to provide a platform that directs future research. Design/methodology/approach – This paper addresses three objectives : a) it comprehensively examines organisational change management literature for selection of a theoretical framework, b) it classifies extant studies within the framework through a systemic literature review, and (c) it analyses 232 selected papers and proposes a research agenda. Findings – Analysis suggests increasing global awareness of the importance of services to manufacturers. However, some topics, especially related to servitization transformation, remain undeveloped. Research limitations/implications – Although the authors tried to include all publications relevant to servitization, some might not have been captured. Evaluation and interpretation relied on the research team and subsequent research workshops. Practical implications - One of the most significant challenges for practitioners of servitization is how to transform a manufacturing organisation to exploit the opportunity. This paper consolidates literature regarding servitization, identifying progress concerning key research topics and contributing a platform for future research. The goal is to inform research to result eventually in a roadmap for practitioners seeking to servitize. Originality/value - Although extant reviews of servitization identify themes that are examined well, they struggle to identify unanswered questions. This paper addresses this gap by focusing on servitization as a process of organisational change.

An investigation of mathematics and science instruction in English and Spanish for English language learners

The contextual demands of language in content area are difficult for ELLS. Content in the native language furthers students' academic development and native language skills, while they are learning English. Content in English integrates pedagogical strategies for English acquisition with subject area instruction. The following models of curriculum content are provided in most Miami Dade County Public Schools: (a) mathematics instruction in the native language with science instruction in English or (b) science instruction in the native language with mathematics instruction in English. The purpose of this study was to investigate which model of instruction is more contextually supportive for mathematics and science achievement. ^ A pretest and posttest, nonequivalent group design was used with 94 fifth grade ELLs who received instruction in curriculum model (a) or (b). This allowed for statistical analysis that detected a difference in the means of .5 standard deviations with a power of .80 at the .05 level of significance. Pretreatment and post-treatment assessments of mathematics, reading, and science achievement were obtained through the administration of Aprenda-Segunda Edición and the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test. ^ The results indicated that students receiving mathematics in English and Science in Spanish scored higher on achievement tests in both Mathematics and Science than the students who received Mathematics in Spanish and Science in English. In addition, the mean score of students on the FCAT mathematics examination was higher than their mean score on the FCAT science examination regardless of the language of instruction. ^

Changing Parental Perceptions of Math and Science Curriculum Through Hands-on Workshops

Many parents hold negative perceptions of math and science because they have never been taught these domains from a hands-on, constructivist approach. Only 20 - 30% of adults have actually experienced activity-based science inquiry. Instead, these individuals were exposed to didactic science programs that emphasize drill, skill and memorization (Shymanksy, 2000). This has had a negative impact upon their content knowledge in these areas and their perceptions of math and science. Consequently, parents are hesitant to incorporate math and science into their home life. There is a dire need to determine if parental perceptions of math, science, and their content knowledge will be positively effected as a result of participation in hands-on science workshops.

The relationship between selected standardized test scores and performance in advanced placement math and science exams: Analyzing the differential effectiveness of scores for course identification and placement

There is a national need to increase the STEM-related workforce. Among factors leading towards STEM careers include the number of advanced high school mathematics and science courses students complete. Florida's enrollment patterns in STEM-related Advanced Placement (AP) courses, however, reveal that only a small percentage of students enroll into these classes. Therefore, screening tools are needed to find more students for these courses, who are academically ready, yet have not been identified. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which scores from a national standardized test, Preliminary Scholastic Assessment Test/ National Merit Qualifying Test (PSAT/NMSQT), in conjunction with and compared to a state-mandated standardized test, Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT), are related to selected AP exam performance in Seminole County Public Schools. An ex post facto correlational study was conducted using 6,189 student records from the 2010 - 2012 academic years. Multiple regression analyses using simultaneous Full Model testing showed differential moderate to strong relationships between scores in eight of the nine AP courses (i.e., Biology, Environmental Science, Chemistry, Physics B, Physics C Electrical, Physics C Mechanical, Statistics, Calculus AB and BC) examined. For example, the significant unique contribution to overall variance in AP scores was a linear combination of PSAT Math (M), Critical Reading (CR) and FCAT Reading (R) for Biology and Environmental Science. Moderate relationships for Chemistry included a linear combination of PSAT M, W (Writing) and FCAT M; a combination of FCAT M and PSAT M was most significantly associated with Calculus AB performance. These findings have implications for both research and practice. FCAT scores, in conjunction with PSAT scores, can potentially be used for specific STEM-related AP courses, as part of a systematic approach towards AP course identification and placement. For courses with moderate to strong relationships, validation studies and development of expectancy tables, which estimate the probability of successful performance on these AP exams, are recommended. Also, findings established a need to examine other related research issues including, but not limited to, extensive longitudinal studies and analyses of other available or prospective standardized test scores.