955 resultados para Multivariate risk model
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Background Mucosal leishmaniasis is caused mainly by Leishmania braziliensis and it occurs months or years after cutaneous lesions. This progressive disease destroys cartilages and osseous structures from face, pharynx and larynx. Objective and methods The aim of this study was to analyse the significance of clinical and epidemiological findings, diagnosis and treatment with the outcome and recurrence of mucosal leishmaniasis through binary logistic regression model from 140 patients with mucosal leishmaniasis from a Brazilian centre. Results The median age of patients was 57.5 and systemic arterial hypertension was the most prevalent secondary disease found in patients with mucosal leishmaniasis (43%). Diabetes, chronic nephropathy and viral hepatitis, allergy and coagulopathy were found in less than 10% of patients. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was found in 7 of 140 patients (5%). Rhinorrhea (47%) and epistaxis (75%) were the most common symptoms. N-methyl-glucamine showed a cure rate of 91% and recurrence of 22%. Pentamidine showed a similar rate of cure (91%) and recurrence (25%). Fifteen patients received itraconazole with a cure rate of 73% and recurrence of 18%. Amphotericin B was the drug used in 30 patients with 82% of response with a recurrence rate of 7%. The binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that systemic arterial hypertension and HIV infection were associated with failure of the treatment (P < 0.05). Conclusion The current first-line mucosal leishmaniasis therapy shows an adequate cure but later recurrence. HIV infection and systemic arterial hypertension should be investigated before start the treatment of mucosal leishmaniasis. Conflicts of interest The authors are not part of any associations or commercial relationships that might represent conflicts of interest in the writing of this study (e.g. pharmaceutical stock ownership, consultancy, advisory board membership, relevant patents, or research funding).
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Aims: To evaluate the role of hormonal contraceptives as a risk factor of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), cervical intraepithelial lesions (CIN) and cervical cancer in our multi-center population-based LAMS (Latin American Screening) study. Methods: A cohort study with >12,000 women from Brazil and Argentina using logistic regression to analyze the covariates of hormonal contraception (HOC - oral, injections, patches, implants, vaginal ring and progesterone intrauterine system) use followed by multivariate modeling for predictors of HR-HPV and CIN2+. Results: HR-HPV infection was a consistent risk factor of high-grade CIN in all three groups of women. The length of HOC use was not significantly related to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL)+ Pap (p = 0.069), LSIL+ Pap (p = 0.781) or ASCUS+ (p = 0.231). The same was true with the length of HOC use and histology CIN3+ (p = 0.115) and CIN2+ (p = 0.515). Frequently, HOC users have previously shown more HPV-related lesions, as well as lower HPV prevalence if they were current smokers. But HOC use and time of usage were not independent risk factors of either HR-HPV infection or high-grade CIN using multiple logistic regressions. Conclusions: No evidence was found for an association between the use of HOC with an increased risk for HR-HPV infection or high-grade CIN in this cohort. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel
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Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.
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Hematological disturbances are common in systemic lupus erythematous (SLE). Specifically, autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AHA) may manifest in SLE patients at the time of diagnosis or within the first year of the disease. AHA is often associated with thrombocytopenia, lupus nephritis, and central nervous system activity. In this study we investigated these associations in Brazilian patients with SLE. Forty-four consecutive SLE patients who had a history of AHA were age, gender, and disease duration matched with 318 SLE patients without AHA who formed the control group. All patients fulfilled the revised American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE and were followed-up within our Service. Clinical and laboratorial manifestations were similar in both groups, except for the predominance of leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, and anti-dsDNA on univariate analysis in the AHA group. The multivariate logistic regression model revealed risk only for thrombocytopenia in the AHA group compared to the control group (odds ratio, 2.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-5.50). Our results corroborate previous data that AHA in SLE increases the risk of thrombocytopenia in individuals with SLE. This association suggests a common mechanism in AHA and SLE pathophysiologies.
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Background: Increasing age and cholesterol levels, male gender, and family history of early coronary heart disease (CHD) are associated with early onset of CHD in familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). Objective: Assess subclinical atherosclerosis by computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) and its association with clinical and laboratorial parameters in asymptomatic FH subjects. Methods: 102 FH subjects (36% male, 45 +/- 13 years, LDL-c 280 +/- 54 mg/dL) and 35 controls (40% male, 46 +/- 12 years, LDL-c 103 +/- 18 mg/dL) were submitted to CTCA. Plaques were divided into calcified, mixed and non-calcified; luminal stenosis was characterized as >50% obstruction. Results: FH had a greater atherosclerotic burden represented by higher number of patients with: plaques (48% vs. 14%, p = 0.0005), stenosis (19% vs. 3%, p = 0.015), segments with plaques (2.05 +/- 2.85 vs. 0.43 +/- 1.33, p = 0.0016) and calcium scores (55 perpendicular to 129 vs. 38 perpendicular to 140, p = 0.0028). After multivariate analysis, determinants of plaque presence were increasing age (OR = 2.06, for age change of 10 years, CI95%: 1.38-3.07, p < 0.001) and total cholesterol (OR = 1.86, for cholesterol change by 1 standard deviation, CI95%: 1.09-3.15, p = 0.027). Coronary calcium score was associated with the presence of stenosis (OR = 1.54; CI95%: 1.27-1.86, p < 0.001, for doubling the calcium score). Male gender was directly associated with the presence of non-calcified plaques (OR: 15.45, CI95% 1.72-138.23, p = 0.014) and inversely with calcified plaques (OR = 0.21, CI95%: 0.05-0.84, p = 0.027). Family history of early CHD was associated with the presence of mixed plaques (OR = 4.90, CI95%: 1.32-18.21, p = 0.018). Conclusions: Patients with FH had an increased burden of coronary atherosclerosis by CTCA. The burden of atherosclerosis and individual plaque subtypes differed with the presence of other associated risk factors, with age and cholesterol being most important. A coronary calcium score of zero ruled out obstructive disease in this higher risk population. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, but the precise effect of childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour (suicide ideation, plans and attempts) are not well understood. Aims To examine the associations between childhood adversities as risk factors for the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour across 21 countries worldwide. Method Respondents from nationally representative samples (n = 55 299) were interviewed regarding childhood adversities that occurred before the age of 18 years and lifetime suicidal behaviour. Results Childhood adversities were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt and ideation in both bivariate and multivariate models (odds ratio range 1.2-5.7). The risk increased with the number of adversities experienced, but at a decreasing rate. Sexual and physical abuse were consistently the strongest risk factors for both the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviour, especially during adolescence. Associations remained similar after additional adjustment for respondents` lifetime mental disorder status. Conclusions Childhood adversities (especially intrusive or aggressive adversities) are powerful predictors of the onset and persistence of suicidal behaviours.
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Background: Noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (NPPV) modes are currently available on bilevel and ICU ventilators. However, little data comparing the performance of the NPPV modes on these ventilators are available. Methods: In an experimental bench study, the ability of nine ICU ventilators to function in the presence of leaks was compared with a bilevel ventilator using the IngMar ASL5000 lung simulator (IngMar Medical; Pittsburgh, PA) set at a compliance of 60 mL/cm H(2)O, an inspiratory resistance of 10 cm H(2)O/L/s, an expiratory resistance of 20 cm H(2)O/L/s, and a respiratory rate of 15 breaths/min. All of the ventilators were set at 12 cm H(2)O pressure support and 5 cm H(2)O positive end-expiratory pressure. The data were collected at baseline and at three customized leaks. Main results: At baseline, all of the ventilators were able to deliver adequate tidal volumes, to maintain airway pressure, and to synchronize with the simulator, without missed efforts or auto-triggering. As the leak was increased, all of the ventilators (except the Vision [Respironics; Murrysville, PA] and Servo I [Maquet; Solna, Sweden]) needed adjustment of sensitivity or cycling criteria to maintain adequate ventilation, and some transitioned to backup ventilation. Significant differences in triggering and cycling were observed between the Servo I and the Vision ventilators. Conclusions: The Vision and Servo I were the only ventilators that required no adjustments as they adapted to increasing leaks. There were differences in performance between these two ventilators, although the clinical significance of these differences is unclear. Clinicians should be aware that in the presence of leaks, most ICU ventilators require adjustments to maintain an adequate tidal volume. (CHEST 2009; 136:448-456)
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Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel
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Background: Organs from the so-called marginal donors have been used with a significant higher risk of primary non function than organs retrieved from the optimal donors. We investigated the early metabolic changes and blood flow redistribution in splanchnic territory in an experimental model that mimics marginal brain-dead (BD) donor. Material/Methods: Ten dogs (21.3 +/- 0.9 kg), were subjected to a brain death protocol induced by subdural balloon inflation and observed for 30 min thereafter without ally additional interventions. Mean arterial and intracranial pressures, heart rate, cardiac output (CO), portal vein and hepatic artery blood flows (PVBF and HABF, ultrasonic flowprobe), and O(2)-derived variables were evaluated. Results: An increase in arterial pressure, CO, PVBF and HABF was observed after BD induction. At the end, an intense hypotension with normalization in CO (3.0 +/- 0.2 VS. 2.8 +/- 2.8 L/min) and PVBF (687 +/- 114 vs. 623 +/- 130 ml/min) was observed, whereas HABF (277 33 vs. 134 28 ml/min, p<0.005) remained lower than baseline values. Conclusions: Despite severe hypotension induced by sudden increase of intracranial pressure, the systemic and splanchnic blood flows were partially preserved without signs of severe hypoperfusion (i.e. hyperlactatemia). Additionally, the HABF was mostly negatively affected in this model of marginal BD donor. Our data suggest that not only the cardiac output, but the intrinsic hepatic microcirculatory mechanism plays a role in the hepatic blood flow control after BD.
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Background/Aims: Statistical analysis of age-at-onset involving family data is particularly complicated because there is a correlation pattern that needs to be modeled and also because there are measurements that are censored. In this paper, our main purpose was to evaluate the effect of genetic and shared family environmental factors on age-at-onset of three cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. Methods: The mixed-effects Cox model proposed by Pankratz et al. [2005] was used to analyze the data from 81 families, involving 1,675 individuals from the village of Baependi, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Results: The analyses performed showed that the polygenic effect plays a greater role than the shared family environmental effect in explaining the variability of the age-at-onset of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. The model which simultaneously evaluated both effects indicated that there are individuals which may have risk of hypertension due to polygenic effects 130% higher than the overall average risk for the entire sample. For diabetes and high cholesterol the risks of some individuals were 115 and 45%, respectively, higher than the overall average risk for the entire population. Conclusions: Results showed evidence of significant polygenic effects indicating that age-at-onset is a useful trait for gene mapping of the common complex diseases analyzed. In addition, we found that the polygenic random component might absorb the effects of some covariates usually considered in the risk evaluation, such as gender, age and BMI. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel
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Objective We characterized the impact of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components on cardiovascular adverse events in patients with symptomatic chronic multivessel coronary artery disease, which have been followed prospectively for 2 years. Methods Patients enrolled in the MASS II study were evaluated for each component of the MetS, as well as the full syndrome. Results The criteria for MetS were fulfilled in 52% of patients. The presence of MetS (P < 0.05), glucose intolerance (P=0.007), and diabetes (P=0.04) was associated with an increased mortality in our studied population. Moreover, despite a clear tendency for each of its components to increase the mortality risk, only the presence of the MetS significantly increased the risk of mortality among nondiabetic study participants in a multivariate model (P=0.03, relative risk 3.5, 95% confidence interval 1.1-6). Finally, MetS was still associated with increased mortality even after adjustment for diabetes status. These results indicate a strong and consistent relationship of the MetS with mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease. Conclusion Although glucose homeostasis seems to be the major force driving the increased risk of MetS, the operational diagnosis of MetS still has information for stratifying patients when diabetes information is taken into account.
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OBJECTIVE-Uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2) is a physiological downregulator of reactive oxygen species generation and plays an antiatherogenic role in the vascular wall. A common variant in the UCP2 promoter (-866G>A) modulates mRNA expression, with increased expression associated with the A allele. We investigated association of this variant with coronary artery disease (CAD) in two cohorts of type 2 diabetic subjects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 3,122 subjects from the 6-year prospective Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes, Hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Cardiovascular Events, and Ramipril (DIABHYCAR) Study (14.9% of CAD incidence at follow-up). An independent, hospital-based cohort of 335 men, 52% of whom had CAD, was also studied. RESULTS-We observed an inverse association of the A allele with incident cases of CAD in a dominant model (hazard risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.80-0.96]; P = 0.006). Similar results were observed for baseline cases of CAD. Stratification by sex confirmed an allelic association with CAD in men, whereas no association was observed in women. All CAD phenotypes considered-myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and sudden death-contributed significantly to the association. Results were replicated in a cross-sectional study of an independent cohort (odds ratio 0.47 [95% CI 0.25-0.89]; P = 0.02 for a recessive model). CONCLUSIONS-The A allele of the -866G>A variant of UCP2 was associated with reduced risk of CAD in men with type 2 diabetes in a 6-year prospective study. Decreased risk of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, CABG, and sudden death contributed individually and significantly to the reduction of CAD risk. This association was independent of other common CAD risk factors.
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Objective: To investigate glomerular development and expression of insulin and insulin-like growth factor receptors in an experimental model of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Material and Methods: We studied three groups of Sprague-Dawley fetuses: IUGR - restricted by ligation of the right uterine artery; C-IUGR - left horn controls, and EC - external controls (non-manipulated). Body and organs were weighed, and glomerular number and volume were analyzed. Expression of IR beta, IRS-1, IRS-2 and IGF-IR beta was analyzed in liver, intestine and kidneys by immunoblotting. Results: Organ/body weight ratios were similar. In IUGR, glomerular number and volume were increased compared to C-IUGR and EC (p < 0.001). In the IUGR liver, increases were found in IGF-IR beta compared to C-IUGR and EC; IR beta compared to EC, and IRS-2 compared to C-IUGR. However, decreases in IR beta were noted in IUGR compared to C-IUGR; IRS-1 compared to C-IUGR and EC, and IRS-2 compared to EC. In IUGR intestine, increases were detected in IR beta, IRS-1 and IGF-IR beta compared to C-IUGR and EC. In IUGR kidneys, increases were observed in IR beta and IGF-IR beta compared to C-IUGR and EC, and IRS-1 compared to EC. Decreased IRS-2 in the intestine and kidney were noticed in IUGR compared to C-IUGR and EC. Conclusion: IUGR fetuses had less glomeruli and alterations in insulin receptors, which may be associated with an increased risk of disease occurrence in adulthood. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel
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Background: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the main causes of adverse reactions related to medications, being responsible for up to 23% of hospital admissions. However, only a few studies have evaluated this problem in elderly Brazilians. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of potential DDIs (PDDIs) in community-dwelling elderly people in Brazil, analyse these interactions with regard to severity and clinical implications, and identify associated factors. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out involving 2143 elderly (aged 60 years) residents of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were obtained from the SABE (Saude, Bem estar e Envelhecimento [Health, Well-Being, and Aging]) survey, which is a multicentre study carried out in seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, coordinated by the Pan-American Health Organization. PDDIs were analysed using a computerized program and categorized according to level of severity, onset, mechanism and documentation in the literature. The STATA software statistical package was used for data analysis, and logistic regression was conducted to determine whether variables were associated with PDDIs. Results: Analysis revealed that 568 (26.5%) of the elderly population included in the study were taking medications that could lead to a DDI. Almost two-thirds (64.4%) of the elderly population exposed to PDDIs were women, 50.7% were aged >= 75 years, 71.7% reported having fair or poor health and 65.8% took 2-5 medications. A total of 125 different PDDIs were identified; the treatment combination of an ACE inhibitor with a thiazide or loop diuretic (associated with hypotension) was the most frequent cause of PDDIs (n=322 patients; 56.7% of individuals with PDDIs). Analysis of the PDDIs revealed that 70.4% were of moderate severity, 64.8% were supported by good quality evidence and 56.8% were considered of delayed onset. The multivariate analysis showed that the risk of a PDDI was significantly increased among elderly individuals using six or more medications (odds ratio [OR] 3.37) and in patients with hypertension (OR 2.56), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.73) or heart problems (OR 3.36). Conclusions: Approximately one-quarter of the elderly population living in Sao Paulo could be taking two or more potentially interacting medicines. Polypharmacy predisposes elderly individuals to PDDIs. More than half of these drug combinations (57.6%, n = 72) were part of commonly employed treatment regimens and may be responsible for adverse reactions that compromise the safety of elderly individuals, especially at home. Educational initiatives are needed to avoid unnecessary risks.
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Background: Obesity is epidemic worldwide, and increases in cesarean delivery rates have occurred in parallel. Objective: This study aimed to determine whether cesarean delivery is a risk factor for obesity in adulthood in a birth cohort of Brazilian subjects. Design: We initiated a birth cohort study in Ribeirao Preto, southeastern Brazil, in 1978. A randomly selected sample of 2057 subjects from the original cohort was reassessed in 2002-2004. Type of delivery, birth weight, maternal smoking, and schooling were obtained after birth. The following data from subjects were collected at 23-25 y of age: body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)), physical activity, smoking, and income. Obesity was defined as a BMI >= 30. A Poisson multivariable model was performed to determine the association between cesarean delivery and BMI. Results: The obesity rate in adults born by cesarean delivery was 15.2% and in those born by vaginal delivery was 10.4% (P = 0.002). Adults born by cesarean delivery had an increased risk (prevalence ratio: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.02) of obesity at adulthood after adjustments. Conclusion: We hypothesize that increasing rates of cesarean delivery may play a role in the obesity epidemic worldwide. Am J Clin Nutr 2011;93:1344-7.