How well do high resolution models reproduce tropical convection?

Cascade is a multi-institution project studying the temporal and spatial organization of tropical convective systems. While cloud resolving numerical models can reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of such systems they are sensitive to the chosen resolution. As part of this effort, we are comparing results from the Met. Office Unified Model to data from the Global Earth Radiation Budget satellite instrument over the African Monsoon Interdisciplinary Analyses region of North Africa. We use a variety of mathematical techniques to study the outgoing radiation and the evolution of properties such as the cloud size distribution. The effectiveness of various model resolutions is tested with a view to determining the optimum balance between resolution and the need to reproduce the observations.

GC/multiple collector-ICPMS method for chlorine stable isotope analysis of chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons

Stable isotopic characterization of chlorine in chlorinated aliphatic pollution is potentially very valuable for risk assessment and monitoring remediation or natural attenuation. The approach has been underused because of the complexity of analysis and the time it takes. We have developed a new method that eliminates sample preparation. Gas chromatography produces individually eluted sample peaks for analysis. The He carrier gas is mixed with Ar and introduced directly into the torch of a multicollector ICPMS. The MC-ICPMS is run at a high mass resolution of >= 10 000 to eliminate interference of mass 37 ArH with Cl. The standardization approach is similar to that for continuous flow stable isotope analysis in which sample and reference materials are measured successively. We have measured PCE relative to a laboratory TCE standard mixed with the sample. Solvent samples of 200 nmol to 1.3 mu mol ( 24- 165 mu g of Cl) were measured. The PCE gave the same value relative to the TCE as measured by the conventional method with a precision of 0.12% ( 2 x standard error) but poorer precision for the smaller samples.

The impact of contractor selection method on transaction costs: a review

The basic premise of transaction-cost theory is that the decision to outsource, rather than to undertake work in-house, is determined by the relative costs incurred in each of these forms of economic organization. In construction the "make or buy" decision invariably leads to a contract. Reducing the costs of entering into a contractual relationship (transaction costs) raises the value of production and is therefore desirable. Commonly applied methods of contractor selection may not minimise the costs of contracting. Research evidence suggests that although competitive tendering typically results in the lowest bidder winning the contract this may not represent the lowest project cost after completion. Multi-parameter and quantitative models for contractor selection have been developed to identify the best (or least risky) among bidders. A major area in which research is still needed is in investigating the impact of different methods of contractor selection on the costs of entering into a contract and the decision to outsource.

A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations

There is a growing interest in using stochastic parametrizations in numerical weather and climate prediction models. Previously, Palmer (2001) outlined the issues that give rise to the need for a stochastic parametrization and the forms such a parametrization could take. In this article a method is presented that uses a comparison between a standard-resolution version and a high-resolution version of the same model to gain information relevant for a stochastic parametrization in that model. A correction term that could be used in a stochastic parametrization is derived from the thermodynamic equations of both models. The origin of the components of this term is discussed. It is found that the component related to unresolved wave-wave interactions is important and can act to compensate for large parametrized tendencies. The correction term is not proportional to the parametrized tendency. Finally, it is explained how the correction term could be used to give information about the shape of the random distribution to be used in a stochastic parametrization. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

The point source method for inverse scattering in the time domain

Many recent inverse scattering techniques have been designed for single frequency scattered fields in the frequency domain. In practice, however, the data is collected in the time domain. Frequency domain inverse scattering algorithms obviously apply to time-harmonic scattering, or nearly time-harmonic scattering, through application of the Fourier transform. Fourier transform techniques can also be applied to non-time-harmonic scattering from pulses. Our goal here is twofold: first, to establish conditions on the time-dependent waves that provide a correspondence between time domain and frequency domain inverse scattering via Fourier transforms without recourse to the conventional limiting amplitude principle; secondly, we apply the analysis in the first part of this work toward the extension of a particular scattering technique, namely the point source method, to scattering from the requisite pulses. Numerical examples illustrate the method and suggest that reconstructions from admissible pulses deliver superior reconstructions compared to straight averaging of multi-frequency data. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multi-mode approximations to wave scattering by an uneven bed

Approximations to the scattering of linear surface gravity waves on water of varying quiescent depth are Investigated by means of a variational approach. Previous authors have used wave modes associated with the constant depth case to approximate the velocity potential, leading to a system of coupled differential equations. Here it is shown that a transformation of the dependent variables results in a much simplified differential equation system which in turn leads to a new multi-mode 'mild-slope' approximation. Further, the effect of adding a bed mode is examined and clarified. A systematic analytic method is presented for evaluating inner products that arise and numerical experiments for two-dimensional scattering are used to examine the performance of the new approximations.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. I: A novel detection method

Wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis and linear wave theory are combined in a novel method to quantitatively estimate equatorial wave activity in the tropical lower stratosphere. The method requires temperature and velocity observations that are regularly spaced in latitude, longitude and time; it is therefore applied to the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset (ERA-15). Signals consistent with idealized Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves are found at wavenumbers and frequencies in agreement with previous studies. When averaged over 1981-93, the Kelvin wave explains approximately 1 K-2 of temperature variance on the equator at 100 hPa, while the Rossby-gravity wave explains approximately 1 m(2)s(-2) of meridional wind variance. Some inertio-gravity wave and equatorial Rossby wave signals are also found; however the resolution of ERA-15 is not sufficient for the method to provide an accurate climatology of waves with high meridional structure.

Quality of medicines stored together in multi-compartment compliance aids

Background and Objective: Dispensing medicines into compliance aids is a common practice in pharmacy contrary to manufacturers’ advice and studies have shown the appearance of light-sensitive tablets is compromised by such storage; we previously found evidence of reduced bioavailability at elevated temperature and humidity. Our objective was to examine the physicochemical stability of two generic atenolol tablets in different compliance aids and with aspirin co-storage at room temperature and at 40 °C/75% relative humidity. Methods: The physicochemical stability of atenolol tablets was evaluated after 28 days of storage and compared with controls by examining visual appearance, weight, disintegration, dissolution, friability and hardness to accepted standards and using a previously validated HPLC method for chemical assay. Results and Discussion: The response to storage was brand-dependent and not straightforward. With one make of atenolol (Alpharma), storage in compliance aids even at room temperature impacted on physical stability, reducing tablet hardness, with storage in Dosett® exerting a greater impact than storage in Medidos® (t-test P < 0·001). Co-storage at elevated temperature and humidity also impacted on the appearance of non-coated aspirin tablets (Angette™). The chemical stability of atenolol was not affected and we did not find evidence of changes to bioavailability with either make. Certainly data for one atenolol make (CP Pharmaceuticals) co-stored with aspirin (Angette™ and Nu-Seals) in both compliance aids at room temperature provided evidence of short-term stability. But medicines are dispensed into compliance aids in multi-factorial ways so our study highlights not only the lack of evidence but also a realization that evidence to support real practice may not be accomplished through research. Conclusion: Reassuring practitioners of the continued stability of medicines in compliance aids under the countless condition in which they are dispensed in practice may requires a different approach involving medical device regulators and more definitive professional guidance.

Pilot study of the short-term physico-chemical stability of atenolol tablets stored in a multi-compartment compliance aid

Study objectives: There is a possibility that lower air, moisture and light protection could impact on physico-chemical stability of medicines inside multi-compartment compliance aids (MCCAs), although this has not yet been proved. The objectives of the study were to examine the physico-chemical stability of atenolol tablets stored in a compliance aid at room temperature, and at elevated temperature and humidity to simulate practice conditions. Methods: Atenolol 100 mg tablets in 28-chamber, plastic compliance aids with transparent lids were stored for four weeks at room temperature and at 40°C with 75% relative humidity. Tablets were also stored at room temperature in original packaging and Petri dishes. Physical tests were conducted to standards as laid down in the British Pharmacopoeia 2005, and dissolution to those of the United States Pharmacopoeia volume 24. Chemical stability was assessed by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Results: Tablets at room temperature in original packaging, in compliance aids and Petri dishes remained the same in appearance and passed physico-chemical tests. Tablets exposed to 40°C with 75% relative humidity in compliance aids passed tests for uniformity of weight, friability and chemical stability but became pale and moist, softer (82 newtons ± 4; p< 0.0001) than tablets in the original packaging (118 newtons ± 6), more friable (0.14% loss of mass) compared with other tablets (0.005%), and failed the tests for disintegration (>15 minutes) and dissolution (only 15% atenolol released at 30 minutes). Conclusion: Although chemical stability was unaffected, storage in compliance aids at 40°C with 75% relative humidity softened atenolol tablets, prolonged disintegration time and hindered dissolution which could significantly reduce bioavailability. This formulation could be suitable for storage in compliance aids at 25°C, but not in hotter, humid weather.

Development of a capillary electrophoresis method for the simultaneous analysis of artificial sweeteners, preservatives and colours in soft drinks

A rapid capillary electrophoresis method was developed simultaneously to determine artificial sweeteners, preservatives and colours used as additives in carbonated soft drinks. Resolution between all additives occurring together in soft drinks was successfully achieved within a 15-min run-time by employing the micellar electrokinetic chromatography mode with a 20 mM carbonate buffer at pH 9.5 as the aqueous phase and 62 mM sodium dodecyl sulfate as the micellar phase. By using a diode-array detector to monitor the UV-visible range (190-600 nm), the identity of sample components, suggested by migration time, could be confirmed by spectral matching relative to standards.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Deconstruction plan assessment using multi-criteria decision-making methods

The purpose of this paper is to present two multi-criteria decision-making models, including an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model and an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model for the assessment of deconstruction plans and to make a comparison between the two models with an experimental case study. Deconstruction planning is under pressure to reduce operation costs, adverse environmental impacts and duration, in the meanwhile to improve productivity and safety in accordance with structure characteristics, site conditions and past experiences. To achieve these targets in deconstruction projects, there is an impending need to develop a formal procedure for contractors to select a most appropriate deconstruction plan. Because numbers of factors influence the selection of deconstruction techniques, engineers definitely need effective tools to conduct the selection process. In this regard, multi-criteria decision-making methods such as AHP have been adopted to effectively support deconstruction technique selection in previous researches. in which it has been proved that AHP method can help decision-makers to make informed decisions on deconstruction technique selection based on a sound technical framework. In this paper, the authors present the application and comparison of two decision-making models including the AHP model and the ANP model for deconstruction plan assessment. The paper concludes that both AHP and ANP are viable and capable tools for deconstruction plan assessment under the same set of evaluation criteria. However, although the ANP can measure relationship among selection criteria and their sub-criteria, which is normally ignored in the AHP, the authors also indicate that whether the ANP model can provide a more accurate result should be examined in further research.

Mapping fibre orientation in complex-shaped biological systems with micrometre resolution by scanning X-ray microdiffraction

A fully automated procedure to extract and to image local fibre orientation in biological tissues from scanning X-ray diffraction is presented. The preferred chitin fibre orientation in the flow sensing system of crickets is determined with high spatial resolution by applying synchrotron radiation based X-ray microbeam diffraction in conjunction with advanced sample sectioning using a UV micro-laser. The data analysis is based on an automated detection of azimuthal diffraction maxima after 2D convolution filtering (smoothing) of the 2D diffraction patterns. Under the assumption of crystallographic fibre symmetry around the morphological fibre axis, the evaluation method allows mapping the three-dimensional orientation of the fibre axes in space. The resulting two-dimensional maps of the local fibre orientations - together with the complex shape of the flow sensing system - may be useful for a better understanding of the mechanical optimization of such tissues.

Development of multi-electrode array screening for anticonvulsants in acute rat brain slices

The acute hippocampal brain slice preparation is an important in vitro screening tool for potential anticonvulsants. Application of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) or removal of external Mg2+ ions induces epileptiform bursting in slices which is analogous to electrical brain activity seen in status epilepticus states. We have developed these epileptiform models for use with multi-electrode arrays (MEAs), allowing recording across the hippocampal slice surface from 59 points. We present validation of this novel approach and analyses using two anticonvulsants, felbamate and phenobarbital, the effects of which have already been assessed in these models using conventional extracellular recordings. In addition to assessing drug effects on commonly described parameters (duration, amplitude and frequency), we describe novel methods using the MEA to assess burst propagation speeds and the underlying frequencies that contribute to the epileptiform activity seen. Contour plots are also used as a method of illustrating burst activity. Finally, we describe hitherto unreported properties of epileptiform, bursting induced by 100 mu M 4-AP or removal of external Mg2+ ions. Specifically, we observed decreases over time in burst amplitude and increase over time in burst frequency in the absence of additional pharmacological interventions. These MEA methods enhance the depth, quality and range of data that can be derived from the hippocampal slice preparation compared to conventional extracellular recordings. it may also uncover additional modes of action that contribute to anti-epileptiform drug effects. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.