940 resultados para Multi-cicle, Expectation, and Conditional Estimation Method


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A simple, fast, accurate, and sensitive spectrophotometric method was developed to determine zinc(II). This method is based on the reaction of Zn(II) with di-2-pyridyl ketone benzoylhydrazone (DPKBH), at pH=5.5 and 50% (v/v) ethanol. Beers law was obeyed in the range 0.020-1.82 mu g mL(-1) with a molar apsorptivity of 3.64 x 10(4) L mol(-1) cm(-1), and a detection limit (3) of 2.29 mu g L-1. The action of some interfering ions was verified and the developed method applied to pharmaceutical and biological samples. The results were then compared with those obtained by using a flame atomic absorption technique.

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Conjugated linoleic acids (CLAs) are a group of linoleic acid isomers that are naturally found in food products originating from ruminants (meat and dairy). These acids have received special attention in recent years due to their potential human health benefits. Research efforts have been proposed to increase the CLA content in beef to improve public health. However, because there are more than 30 million beef cattle used each year by the American food industry, it will be necessary to ensure their content in a large number of samples. Therefore, it is important to have an inexpensive and rapid analytical method to measure CLA content in food products. Because gas chromatography (GC), a current popular method for measuring CLAs, is slow, this paper describes a nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H NMR) method that is potentially >10 times faster than the GC method. Analyses show a correlation coefficient of 0.97, indicating the capacity of NMR to quantify the CLA content in beef samples. Furthermore, the method proposed herein is simple and does not require sophisticated sample preparation.

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This paper examines whether European Monetary Union (EMU) countries share fairly the effect of their membership in Eurozone (EZ) or whether are winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''. By using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) Member States for the period 2001-2012 in the context of a gravity model, we focus on estimating the Euro’s effect on bilateral trade and we detect whether this effect differs across the Member States of EZ. Two estimation methods are applied: Pooled OLS estimator and Fixed Effects estimator. The empirical results come to the conclusion that the individual country effects differ and are statistically significant, indicating that EMU’s effect on trade differs across the Member States of EZ. The overall effect of the Euro is statistically insignificant, regardless the estimation method, demonstrating that the common European currency may have no effect on bilateral trade.

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O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar a Curva de Juros Mensal para o Brasil através de três fatores, comparando dois tipos de métodos de estimação: Através da Representação em Espaço de Estado é possível estimá-lo por dois Métodos: Filtro de Kalman e Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Passos. Os fatores têm sua dinâmica representada por um Modelo Autorregressivo Vetorial, VAR(1), e para o segundo método de estimação, atribui-se uma estrutura para a Variância Condicional. Para a comparação dos métodos empregados, propõe-se uma forma alternativa de compará-los: através de Processos de Markov que possam modelar conjuntamente o Fator de Inclinação da Curva de Juros, obtido pelos métodos empregados neste trabalho, e uma váriavel proxy para Desempenho Econômico, fornecendo alguma medida de previsão para os Ciclos Econômicos.

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Hope is an important construct in marketing, once it is an antecedent of important marketing variables, such as trust, expectation and satisfaction (MacInnis & de Mello, 2005, Almeida, Mazzon & Botelho, 2007). Specifically, the literature suggests that hope can play an important influence on risk perception (Almeida, 2010, Almeida et al., 2007, Fleming, 2008, MacInnis & de Mello, 2005) and propensity to indebtedness (Fleming, 2008). Thus, this thesis aims to investigate the relations among hope, risk perception related to purchasing and consumption and propensity to indebtedness, by reviewing the existing literature and conducting two empirical researches. The first of them is a laboratory experiment, which accessed hope and risk perception of getting a mortgage loan. The second is a survey, investigating university students’ propensity to get indebted to pay for their university tuition, analyzed through the method of Structural Equations Modeling (SEM). These studies found that hope seems to play an important role on propensity to indebtedness, as higher levels of hope predicted an increase in the propensity to accept the mortgage loan, independent of actual risks, and an increase in the propensity of college students to get indebted to pay for their studies. In addition, the first study suggests that hope may lead to a decrease in risk perception, which, however, has not been confirmed by the second study. Finally, this research offers some methodological contributions, due to the fact that it is the first study using an experimental method to study hope in Brazil and, worldwide, it is the first study investigating the relation among hope, risk perception and propensity to indebtedness, which proved to be important influences in consumer behavior

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Neste trabalho investigamos as propriedades em pequena amostra e a robustez das estimativas dos parâmetros de modelos DSGE. Tomamos o modelo de Smets and Wouters (2007) como base e avaliamos a performance de dois procedimentos de estimação: Método dos Momentos Simulados (MMS) e Máxima Verossimilhança (MV). Examinamos a distribuição empírica das estimativas dos parâmetros e sua implicação para as análises de impulso-resposta e decomposição de variância nos casos de especificação correta e má especificação. Nossos resultados apontam para um desempenho ruim de MMS e alguns padrões de viés nas análises de impulso-resposta e decomposição de variância com estimativas de MV nos casos de má especificação considerados.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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This letter presents an alternative approach for reducing the total real power losses by using a continuation method. Results for two simple test systems and for the IEEE 57-bus system show that this procedure results in larger voltage stability margin. Besides, the reduction of real power losses obtained with this procedure leads to significant money savings and, simultaneously, to voltage profile improvement. Comparison between the solution of an optimal power flow and the proposed method shows that the latter can provide near optimal results and so, it can be a reasonable alternative to power system voltage stability enhancement.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The objective of the paper is to report research carried out over two years aiming at developing a framework to support the management of manufacturing organizations for whom reducing throughput time is strategically important, either because they compete based on short lead times or because they choose to pursue other objectives such as cost reduction by means of reducing their manufacturing cycle times. A step-by-step method is proposed based on the analyses of a number of Brazilian best practice cases (all manufacturing companies and all part of large multi-national corporations) and on the relevant literature.

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The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Lanthanum-modified bismuth titanate, Bi4-xLaxTi3O12 (BLT), thin films with a La concentration of 0.75 was grown on Pt/Ti/SiO2/Si substrates by using the polymeric precursor solution and spin-coating method. The scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed rounded grains, which is not typical for these system. The BLT films showed well-saturated polarization-electric field curve which 2P(r) = 41.4 muC/cm(2) and V-c = 0.99 V. The capacitance dependence on the voltage is strongly nonlinear, confirming the ferroelectric properties of the film resulting from the domains switching. These properties make BLT a promising material for FERAM applications.