Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

A debat : la lectura al segle XXI

La lectura al segle XXI és un tema que per als bibliotecaris inclou molts aspectes apassionants i difícils d'aglutinar en una hora i mitja. En aquesta ocasió, hem volgut parlar no només amb bibliotecaris, sinó també amb altres actors involucrats en aquest sector. El resultat ha estat un debat ric i divers, que ha abastat aspectes com el comportament del lector, l'accés a la informació, els canvis en la lectura, el llibre electrònic o el paper de les institucions i la societat.

L'ensenyament universitari del segle XXI : més enllà del paper

Durant les últimes dècades, en un context en què impera la influència de les TIC, el model de l'ensenyament universitari ha canviat radicalment. Paral·lelament, els rols de l'estudiant i del professor també s'han vist modificats: l'estudiant ha deixat de ser un lector passiu per convertir-se en un lector que participa activament en el procés d'aprenentatge, aportant material complementari i en diferents suports a la informació que li arriba. Neix, així, el concepte de lectura augmentada. La Universitat Oberta de Catalunya és un exemple de la tendència de futur de l'ensenyament universitari, en què l'estudiant pren les regnes de l'aprenentatge i les institucions educatives s'adapten a les noves necessitats de l'usuari afavorint la flexibilitat, la mobilitat i les eines tecnològiques imprescindibles per a aquest nou model d'ensenyament.

To Monty Kier, a friendly tribute.

In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process vs. those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process); thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from stimuli that result in increased autophagic activity, defined as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the field understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field.

Lot embriagat per les seves filles, d'Andrea Vaccaro

Article sobre l'estudi de l'obra titulada 'Lot embriagat per les seves filles' de l'artista Andrea Vaccaro dipositada al Museo d' Art de Girona. Va ser també el motiu d'una conferència el 10 de desembre de 1994 al Museu Art de Girona

Vicens i Vices i la història contemporània

Dins del marc del número monogràfic dedicat a Jaume Vicens Vives, l’autora fa un breu repàs per l’obra de l’historiador, destacant sobretot la preocupació de Vives per les qüestions de caràcter epistemològic i metodològic de l’anàlisi històrica

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Nanostructuració d'òxids mitjançant mètodes de solució química avançats i nanolitografia tova

Un dels reptes tecnològics més importants del segle XXI és el desenvolupament i organització de materials funcionals a escala nanomètrica ja que permet modificar-ne les propietats fonamentals i generar-ne de noves. En el cas dels òxids complexos aquesta tecnologia ha generat grans perspectives en diferents àrees d’estudi perquè presenten propietats molt interessants com la magnetoresistència colossal, superconductivitat o multiferroicitat. En particular, en l’òxid complex superconductor YBa2Cu3O7 (YBCO) s’ha demostrat que la formació de capes superconductores sobre plantilles nanoestructurades o bé la formació de nanocompostos en una matriu superconductora permet millorar de manera espectacular les seves propietats (corrent crític). Aquests resultats introduiran canvis paradigmàtics en la tecnologia de l’energia elèctrica (cables, motors, generadors) i en totes aquelles aplicacions que requereixin camps magnètics intensos. Ara bé, cal aconseguir-ho mitjançant tècniques de baix cost i que permetin un fàcil escalat. Durant els 4 mesos que s’ha disfrutat de l’ajut BP s’han preparat amb èxit noves capes primes superconductores nanoestructurades mitjançant la introducció d’una fase secundària nanomètrica complexa, Ba2YTaO6 (BYTO), dins la matriu d’YBCO pel mètode de baix cost de deposició de solucions químiques. Aquesta nova composició ha donat lloc a un augment significatiu de les propietats superconductores comparat amb la fase tradicional d’YBCO i per tant tenen gran potencial per fabricar futures cintes superconductores.

Año Europeo 2012- Envejecimiento Activo y Solidaridad Intergeneracional. ¿De qué hablamos?

En los inicios del siglo XXI, se presentan nuevas exigencias de cambio en la educación. Hombres y mujeres mayores de 55 años anhelan ampliar sus conocimientos para participar de forma más activa y completa en el cambiante mundo que estamos viviendo, y quieren relacionarse más activamente con el medio donde viven sus años de madurez. Nunca un movimiento educativo de esas características ha pasado tan desapercibido para tantos pedagogos. La educación permanente supone una ruptura con el pasado y una opción para el futuro y se plantea como “el sistema de los sistemas educativos” con importantes repercusiones para la educación. Preocuparse por la participación de las personas mayores es una cuestión central en la agenda gerontológica actual.

Exploring the conditions for a mortality crisis: bringing context back into the debate

This study engages with the debate over the mortality crises in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe by 1) considering at length and as complementary to each other the two most prominent explanations for the post-communist mortality crisis, stress and alcohol consumption; 2) emphasizing the importance of context by exploiting systematic similarities and differences across the region. Differential mortality trajectories reveal three country groups that cluster both spatially and in terms of economic transition experiences. The first group are the countries furthest west in which mortality rates increased minimally after the transition began. The second group experienced a severe increase in mortality rates in the early 1990s, but recovered previous levels within a few years. These countries are located peripherally to Russia and its nearest neighbours. The final group consists of countries that experienced two mortality increases or in which mortality levels had not recovered to pre-transition levels well into the 21st century. Cross-sectional time-series data analyses of men’s and women’s age and cause-specific death rates reveal that the clustering of these countries and their mortality trajectories can be partially explained by the economic context, which is argued to be linked to stress and alcohol consumption. Above and beyond many basic differences in the country groups that are held constant—including geographically and historically shared cultural, lifestyle and social characteristics—poor economic conditions account for a remarkably consistent share of excess age-specific and cause-specific deaths.

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Healthy Iowans 2010 Mid-Course Revision, July 2005

In the past century, public health has been credited with adding 25 years to life expectancy by contributing to the decline in illness and injury. Progress has been made, for example, in smoking reduction, infectious disease, and motor vehicle and workplace injuries. Besides its focus on traditional concerns such as clean water and safe food, public health is adapting to meet emerging health problems. Particular troublesome are health threats to youth: teenage pregnancies, violence, substance abuse, sexually transmitted diseases, and other conditions associated with high-risk behaviors. These threats add to burgeoning health care costs. A conservative estimate of $69 billion in medical spending could be averted through the impact of public health strategies aimed at heart disease, stroke, fatal and nonfatal occupational injuries, motor vehicle-related injuries, low birth weight, and violence. These strategies require the collaboration of many groups in the public and private sectors. Collaboration is the bedrock of public health and Healthy Iowans planning. At the core of Healthy Iowans 2000 and its successor, Healthy Iowans 2010, is the idea that all Iowans benefit when stakeholders decide on disease prevention and health promotion strategies and agree to work together on them. These strategies can improve the quality of life and hold down health care costs. The payoff for health promotion and disease prevention is not immediate, but it has long-lasting benefits. The Iowa plan is a companion to the national plan, Healthy People 2010. An initiative to improve the health of Americans, the national plan is the driving force for federal resource allocation for disease prevention and health promotion. The state plan is used in the same way. Both plans have received broad support from Republican and Democratic administrations. Community planners are using the state plan to help assess health needs and craft health improvement plans. Healthy Iowans 2010 was written at an unusual point in history – a new decade, a new century, a new millennium. The introduction was optimistic. “The 21st century,” it says, “promises to add life as well as years through improved health habits coupled with medical advances. Scientists have suggested that if these changes occur, the definition of adulthood will also change. An extraordinary number of people will live fuller, more active lives beyond that expected in the late 20th century.” At the same time, the country has spawned a new generation of health hazards. According to Dr. William Dietz of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it has replaced “the diseases of deficiency with diseases of excess” (Newsweek, August 2, 1999). New threats, such as childhood overweight, can reverse progress made in the last century. This demands concerted action.

Farm-Level Analysis of Risk Management Proposals, March 2000

This paper presents a detailed report of the representative farm analysis (summarized in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #01-00). At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the U.S. Senate, we have continued to analyze the impacts of the Farmers’ Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580). Earlier analysis reported in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #04-99 concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts. The representative farm analysis is conducted for several types of farms, including both irrigated and non-irrigated cotton farms in Tom Green County, Texas; dryland wheat farms in Morton County, North Dakota and Sumner County, Kansas; and a corn farm in Webster County, Iowa. We consider additional factors that may shed light on the differential impacts of the two plans. 1. Farm-level income impacts under alternative weather scenarios. 2. Additional indirect impacts, such as a change in ability to obtain financing. 3. Implications of within-year price shocks. Our results indicate that farmers who buy crop insurance will increase their coverage levels under S. 1580. Farmers with high yield risk find that the 65 percent coverage level maximizes expected returns, but some who feel that they obtain other benefits from higher coverage will find that the S. 1580 subsidy schedule significantly lowers the cost of obtaining the additional coverage. Farmers with lower yield risk find that the increased indemnities from additional coverage will more than offset the increase in producer premium. In addition, because S. 1580 extends its increased premium subsidy percentages to revenue insurance products, farmers will have an increased incentive to buy revenue insurance. Differences in the ancillary benefits from crop insurance under the baseline and S. 1580 would be driven by the increase in insurance participation and buy-up. Given the same levels of insurance participation and buy-up, the ancillary benefits under the two scenarios would be the same.

Spheres of diversities: from concept to policy

This book is concerned with the diversity debate in the context of Europe.It is about diversity both as a concept and as a policy. Indeed, the epicentreof the analysis is the link between the spheres of diversity-concepts anddiversity-policies. The book explores how the concept of diversity orientatespolicies and management, and also how public/private managementfacilitates new policy orientations. As such, the book enhances conceptualthinking on diversity, but also facilitates policy thinking on the conceptinvolved in novel policy orientations towards diversity.