Canadian Niagara Power Company - Man in Tunnel

One male looking down tunnel.

Canadian Niagara Power Company - Water pouring into Tunnel

Three men looking down tunnel as water is pouring in.

Canadian Niagara Power Company - Four Men in the Tunnel (different angle)

Four men, same men from a previous photograph, standing in the water of the tunnel.

Canadian Niagara Power Company - Man working in rafter of tunnel

A photograph of man working high in rafter of the tunnel with ropes securing him.

Canadian Niagara Power Company - Tunnel Wall

A photograph of the hydro tunnel wall.

Synthesis, Catalysis and Stoichiometric Reactivity of Mo Imido Complexes

The syntheses, catalytic reactivity and mechanistic investigations of novel Mo(IV) and Mo(VI) imido systems is presented. Attempts at preparing mixed bis(imido) Mo(IV) complexes of the type (RN)(R′N)Mo(PMe3)n (n = 2 or 3) derived from the mono(imido) complexes (RN)Mo(PMe3)3(X)2 (R = tBu (1) or Ar (2); X = Cl2 or HCl, Ar=2,6-iPr2C6H3) are also described. The addition of lithiated silylamides to 1 or 2 results in the unexpected formation of the C-H activated cyclometallated complexes (RN)Mo(PMe3)2(η2-CH2PMe2)(X) (R = Ar, X = H (3); R = tBu, X = Cl (4)). Complexes 3 and 4 were used in the activation of R′E-H bonds (E = Si, B, C, O, P; R′ = alkyl or aryl), which typically give products of addition across the M-C bond of the type (RN)Mo(PMe3)3(ER′)(X) (4). In the case of 2,6-dimethylphenol, subsequent heating of 4 (R = Ar, R′ = 2,6-Me2C6H3, E = O) to 50 °C results in C-H activation to give the cyclometallated complex (ArN)Mo(PMe3)3(κ2-O,C-OPh(Me)CH2) (5). An alternative approach was developed in synthesizing the mixed imido complex (ArN)(tBuN)Mo(PMe3)(η2-C2H4) (6) through EtMgBr reduction of (ArN)(tBuN)MoCl2(DME) in the presence of PMe3. Complex 6 reacts with various hydro- and chlorosilanes to give β-agostic silylamido complexes and in one case, when Me2SiHCl is the silane, leads to the silanimine complex (tBuN)Mo(η2-SiMe2-NAr)(Et)(η2-C2H4) (7). Mechanistic studies on the formation of the Mo(VI) tris(silyl) complex (tBuN)Mo(SiHPh)(H){(μ-NtBu)(SiHPh)}(PMe3)2 (8) were done from the addition of three equivalents of PhSiH3 to (tBuN)Mo(PMe3)(η2-C2H4), resulting in identification of β- and γ-agostic SiH…Mo intermediates. The reactivity of complex 8 towards ethylene and nitriles was studied. In both cases coupling of unsaturated substrates with the Mo-Si bond of the metalacycle was observed. In the case of nitriles, insertion into the 4-membered disilaazamolybdacycle results in complexes of the type (tBuN)Mo{(κ2-Si,C-SiHPh-NtBu-SiHPh-N=C(R)}(PMe3)2. Catalytic hydrosilylation of carbonyls mediated by the β-agostic silylamido complex (ArN)2Mo(η3-NtBu-SiMe2-H)(H) (9) was investigated. Stoichiometric reactions with organic substrates showed that catalysis with 9 does not proceed via the conventional insertion of substrate into the Mo-H bond.

David Nicholson's Liquid Bread Advertisement

An advertisement for David Nicholson's Liquid Bread "a pure extract of Malt". The reverse of the advertisement describes the uses for liquid, "...an unsurpassed tonic; a promoter of appetite, a source of muscular strength, an augmenter of nervous energy and a fat-producing hydro-carbon."

Économétrie, théorie des tests et philosophie des sciences

Dans ce texte, nous revoyons certains développements récents de l’économétrie qui peuvent être intéressants pour des chercheurs dans des domaines autres que l’économie et nous soulignons l’éclairage particulier que l’économétrie peut jeter sur certains thèmes généraux de méthodologie et de philosophie des sciences, tels la falsifiabilité comme critère du caractère scientifique d’une théorie (Popper), la sous-détermination des théories par les données (Quine) et l’instrumentalisme. En particulier, nous soulignons le contraste entre deux styles de modélisation - l’approche parcimonieuse et l’approche statistico-descriptive - et nous discutons les liens entre la théorie des tests statistiques et la philosophie des sciences.

Exact Nonparametric Two-Sample Homogeneity Tests for Possibly Discrete Distributions.

In this paper, we study several tests for the equality of two unknown distributions. Two are based on empirical distribution functions, three others on nonparametric probability density estimates, and the last ones on differences between sample moments. We suggest controlling the size of such tests (under nonparametric assumptions) by using permutational versions of the tests jointly with the method of Monte Carlo tests properly adjusted to deal with discrete distributions. We also propose a combined test procedure, whose level is again perfectly controlled through the Monte Carlo test technique and has better power properties than the individual tests that are combined. Finally, in a simulation experiment, we show that the technique suggested provides perfect control of test size and that the new tests proposed can yield sizeable power improvements.

A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilies

In this paper, we provide both qualitative and quantitative measures of the cost of measuring the integrated volatility by the realized volatility when the frequency of observation is fixed. We start by characterizing for a general diffusion the difference between the realized and the integrated volatilities for a given frequency of observations. Then, we compute the mean and variance of this noise and the correlation between the noise and the integrated volatility in the Eigenfunction Stochastic Volatility model of Meddahi (2001a). This model has, as special examples, log-normal, affine, and GARCH diffusion models. Using some previous empirical works, we show that the standard deviation of the noise is not negligible with respect to the mean and the standard deviation of the integrated volatility, even if one considers returns at five minutes. We also propose a simple approach to capture the information about the integrated volatility contained in the returns through the leverage effect.

An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling.

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for volatility modeling in discrete and continuous time. We follow the stochastic volatility literature by assuming that the variance is a function of a state variable. However, instead of assuming that the loading function is ad hoc (e.g., exponential or affine), we assume that it is a linear combination of the eigenfunctions of the conditional expectation (resp. infinitesimal generator) operator associated to the state variable in discrete (resp. continuous) time. Special examples are the popular log-normal and square-root models where the eigenfunctions are the Hermite and Laguerre polynomials respectively. The eigenfunction approach has at least six advantages: i) it is general since any square integrable function may be written as a linear combination of the eigenfunctions; ii) the orthogonality of the eigenfunctions leads to the traditional interpretations of the linear principal components analysis; iii) the implied dynamics of the variance and squared return processes are ARMA and, hence, simple for forecasting and inference purposes; (iv) more importantly, this generates fat tails for the variance and returns processes; v) in contrast to popular models, the variance of the variance is a flexible function of the variance; vi) these models are closed under temporal aggregation.

Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination

This paper develops a model of money demand where the opportunity cost of holding money is subject to regime changes. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are assumed to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to directly observe whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program but can construct probability inferences on the basis of available observations of inflation and money growth. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime. This specification is estimated and tested using data from the Israeli and Argentine high inflation periods. Results indicate the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government’s signaling might substantially simplify the inference problem and increase the speed of learning on the part of the agents. However, under certain conditions, it might increase the volatility of inflation. After the introduction of an inflation stabilization plan, the welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their real balances in the short-term, even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not preference-free, in other words, when preferences are not hidden in the stock and bond prices as they are in the standard Black and Scholes (BS) or Hull and White (HW) pricing formulas. The dependence of option prices on preference parameters comes from several instantaneous causality effects such as the so-called leverage effect. We also emphasize that the most standard asset pricing models (CAPM for the stock and BS or HW preference-free option pricing) are valid under the same stochastic setting (typically the absence of leverage effect), regardless of preference parameter values. Even though we propose a general non-preference-free option pricing formula, we always keep in mind that the BS formula is dominant both as a theoretical reference model and as a tool for practitioners. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize why the BS formula is such a benchmark. We show that, as soon as we are ready to accept a basic property of option prices, namely their homogeneity of degree one with respect to the pair formed by the underlying stock price and the strike price, the necessary statistical hypotheses for homogeneity provide BS-shaped option prices in equilibrium. This BS-shaped option-pricing formula allows us to derive interesting characterizations of the volatility smile, that is, the pattern of BS implicit volatilities as a function of the option moneyness. First, the asymmetry of the smile is shown to be equivalent to a particular form of asymmetry of the equivalent martingale measure. Second, this asymmetry appears precisely when there is either a premium on an instantaneous interest rate risk or on a generalized leverage effect or both, in other words, whenever the option pricing formula is not preference-free. Therefore, the main conclusion of our analysis for practitioners should be that an asymmetric smile is indicative of the relevance of preference parameters to price options.

Political Influence, Economic Interests and Endogenous Tax Structure in a Computable Equilibrium Framework: with Applicatioon to the United States, 1973 and 1983

A full understanding of public affairs requires the ability to distinguish between the policies that voters would like the government to adopt, and the influence that different voters or group of voters actually exert in the democratic process. We consider the properties of a computable equilibrium model of a competitive political economy in which the economic interests of groups of voters and their effective influence on equilibrium policy outcomes can be explicitly distinguished and computed. The model incorporates an amended version of the GEMTAP tax model, and is calibrated to data for the United States for 1973 and 1983. Emphasis is placed on how the aggregation of GEMTAP households into groups within which economic and political behaviour is assumed homogeneous affects the numerical representation of interests and influence for representative members of each group. Experiments with the model suggest that the changes in both interests and influence are important parts of the story behind the evolution of U.S. tax policy in the decade after 1973.