Uncertainty Quantification in Helicopter Performance Using Monte Carlo Simulations

The effect of structural and aerodynamic uncertainties on the performance predictions of a helicopter is investigated. An aerodynamic model based on blade element and momentum theory is used to predict the helicopter performance. The aeroelastic parameters, such as blade chord, rotor radius, two-dimensional lift-curve slope, blade profile drag coefficient, rotor angular velocity, blade pitch angle, and blade twist rate per radius of the rotor, are considered as random variables. The propagation of these uncertainties to the performance parameters, such as thrust coefficient and power coefficient, are studied using Monte Carlo Simulations. The simulations are performed with 100,000 samples of structural and aerodynamic uncertain variables with a coefficient of variation ranging from 1 to 5%. The scatter in power predictions in hover, axial climb, and forward flight for the untwisted and linearly twisted blades is studied. It is found that about 20-25% excess power can be required by the helicopter relative to the determination predictions due to uncertainties.

Thermodynamic study of Fe2O3 Fe2(SO4)3 equilibrium using an oxyanionic electrolyte (Na2SO4 I)

The emf of the cell, Pt, Ar + O2 + SO2 + SO3/Na2SO4-I/Fe2O2 + Fe2(SO4)3, Pt, has been measured in the temperature range 800 to 1000 K, using a gas mixture of known input composition as the reference electrode. The equilibrium composition of the reference gas at the measuring temperatures was computed using the thermodynamic data on the gaseous species reported in the literature. A mixture of ferric oxide and sulfate was kept in a closed system to ensure establishment of equilibrium partial pressure at the electrode. The cell was designed to avoid physical contact between Fe2(SO4)3 and Na2SO4 electrolyte. Uncertainties arising from the formation of sulfate solid solution were thus eliminated. The Gibbs’ energy of formation of ferric sulfate calculated from the emf is discussed in comparison with data reported in the literature. There is no evidence for the formation of oxysulfates in the Fe-S-0 system. Based on the results obtained in the present study for Fe2(SO4)3 and literature data for other phases, chemical potential diagrams have been constructed for the Fe-S-O system at 900 and 1100 K.

Gibbs energies of formation of intermetallic phases in the systems Pt Mg, Pt Ca and Pt Ba and some applications

The standard Gibbs energies of formation of platinum-rich intermetallic compounds in the systems Pt-Mg, Pt-Ca, and Pt-Ba have been measured in the temperature range of 950 to 1200 K using solid-state galvanic cells based on MgF2, CaF2, and BaF2 as solid electrolytes. The results are summarized by the following equations: ΔG° (MgPt7) = −256,100 + 16.5T (±2000) J/mol ΔG° (MgPt3) = −217,400 + 10.7T (±2000) J/mol ΔG° (CaPt5) = −297,500 + 13.0T (±5000) J/mol ΔG° (Ca2Pt7) = −551,800 + 22.3T (±5000) J/mol ΔG° (CaPt2) = −245,400 + 9.3T (±5000) J/mol ΔG° (BaPt5) = −238,700 + 8.1T (±4000) J/mol ΔG° (BaPt2) = −197,300 + 4.0T (±4000) J/mol where solid platinum and liquid alkaline earth metals are selected as the standard states. The relatively large error estimates reflect the uncertainties in the auxiliary thermodynamic data used in the calculation. Because of the strong interaction between platinum and alkaline earth metals, it is possible to reduce oxides of Group ILA metals by hydrogen at high temperature in the presence of platinum. The alkaline earth metals can be recovered from the resulting intermetallic compounds by distillation, regenerating platinum for recycling. The platinum-slag-gas equilibration technique for the study of the activities of FeO, MnO, or Cr2O3 in slags containing MgO, CaO, or BaO is feasible provided oxygen partial pressure in the gas is maintained above that corresponding to the coexistence of Fe and “FeO.”

Analysis for the Reflected Waves Transmitted on to the Channel by Tall Grounded Objects Using a Special Case

During lightning strike to a tall grounded object (TGO), reflected current waves from TGO are transmitted on to the channel. With regard to these transmitted waves, there seems to be some uncertainties like: 1) will they get reflected at the main wavefront; and 2) if so, what would be their final status. This study makes an attempt to address these issues considering a special case of strike to a TGO involving equal channel core and TGO radii. A macroscopic physical model for the lightning return stroke is adopted for the intended work. Analysis showed that the waves transmitted on to the channel merges with the main wavefront without any sign of reflection. Investigation revealed that: 1) the nonlinear spatio-temporal resistance profile of the channel at the wavefront is mainly responsible for the same; and 2) the distributed source provides additional support. The earlier findings are not limited to the special case of TGO considered. In spite of considering equal TGO and channel core radii, salient features of the model predicted remote electromagnetic fields agree well with the measured data reported in literature.

Time-dependent transitions with time-space noncommutativity and its implications in quantum optics

We study the time-dependent transitions of a quantum-forced harmonic oscillator in noncommutative R(1,1) perturbatively to linear order in the noncommutativity theta. We show that the Poisson distribution gets modified, and that the vacuum state evolves into a `squeezed' state rather than a coherent state. The time evolutions of uncertainties in position and momentum in vacuum are also studied and imply interesting consequences for modeling nonlinear phenomena in quantum optics.

Probabilistic design of retaining walls.

Retaining walls are one of the important structures in nearshore environment and are generally designed based on deterministic approaches. The present paper focuses on the reliability assessment of cantilever retaining walls with due consideration to the uncertainties in soil parameters. Reliability analysis quantifies the level of reliability associated with designs and the associated risk. It also gives the formalisation of a design situation that is normally recognised by experienced designers and provides a greater level of consistency in design. The results are also examined in terms of a simple cost function. The study shows that sliding mode is the critical failure mode and the consequent failure costs are also higher. The study also shows that provision of shear key results in improved reliability and reduction in expected costs.

Role of water contamination within the GC column of a GasBench II peripheral on the reproducibility of O-18/O-16 ratios in water samples

The GasBench II peripheral along with MAT 253 combination provides a more sensitive platform for the determination of water isotope ratios. Here, we examined the role of adsorbed moisture within the gas chromatography (GC) column of the GasBench II on measurement uncertainties. The uncertainty in O-18/O-16 ratio measurements is determined by several factors, including the presence of water in the GC. The contamination of GC with water originating from samples as water vapour over a longer timeframe is a critical factor in determining the reproducibility of O-18/O-16 ratios in water samples. The shift in isotope ratios observed in the experiment under dry and wet conditions correlates strongly with the retention time of analyte CO2, indicating the effect of accumulated moisture. Two possible methods to circumvent or minimise the effect of adsorbed water on isotope ratios are presented here. The proposed methodology includes either the regular baking of the GC column at a higher temperature (120 degrees C) after analysis of a batch of 32 sample entries or conducting the experiment at a low GC column temperature (22.5 degrees C). The effects of water contamination on long-term reproducibility of reference water, with and without baking protocol, have been described.

Spectral Element Approach to Wave Propagation in Uncertain Composite Beam Structures

This paper presents a study of the wave propagation responses in composite structures in an uncertain environment. Here, the main aim of the work is to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the wave propagation responses at high frequencies. The material properties are considered uncertain and the analysis is performed using Neumann expansion blended with Monte Carlo simulation under the environment of spectral finite element method. The material randomness is included in the conventional wave propagation analysis by different distributions (namely, the normal and the Weibul distribution) and their effect on wave propagation in a composite beam is analyzed. The numerical results presented investigates the effect of material uncertainties on different parameters, namely, wavenumber and group speed, which are relevant in the wave propagation analysis. The effect of the parameters, such as fiber orientation, lay-up sequence, number of layers, and the layer thickness on the uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load, is thoroughly analyzed. Significant changes are observed in the high frequency responses with the variation in the above parameters, even for a small coefficient of variation. High frequency impact loads are applied and a number of interesting results are presented, which brings out the true effects of uncertainty in the high frequency responses. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003945]

The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers

Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.

Analysis for the Reflected Waves Transmitted on to the Channel by Tall Grounded Objects Using a Special Case

During lightning strike to a tall grounded object (TGO), reflected current waves from TGO are transmitted on to the channel. With regard to these transmitted waves, there seems to be some uncertainties like: 1) will they get reflected at the main wavefront; and 2) if so, what would be their final status. This study makes an attempt to address these issues considering a special case of strike to a TGO involving equal channel core and TGO radii. A macroscopic physical model for the lightning return stroke is adopted for the intended work. Analysis showed that the waves transmitted on to the channel merges with the main wavefront without any sign of reflection. Investigation revealed that: 1) the nonlinear spatio-temporal resistance profile of the channel at the wavefront is mainly responsible for the same; and 2) the distributed source provides additional support. The earlier findings are not limited to the special case of TGO considered. In spite of considering equal TGO and channel core radii, salient features of the model predicted remote electromagnetic fields agree well with the measured data reported in literature.

A Simple Charge Model for Symmetric Double-Gate MOSFETs Adapted to Gate-Oxide-Thickness Asymmetry

Surface-potential-based compact charge models for symmetric double-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (SDG-MOSFETs) are based on the fundamental assumption of having equal oxide thicknesses for both gates. However, for practical devices, there will always be some amount of asymmetry between the gate oxide thicknesses due to process variations and uncertainties, which can affect device performance significantly. In this paper, we propose a simple surface-potential-based charge model, which is applicable for tied double-gate MOSFETs having same gate work function but could have any difference in gate oxide thickness. The proposed model utilizes the unique so-far-unexplored quasi-linear relationship between the surface potentials along the channel. In this model, the terminal charges could be computed by basic arithmetic operations from the surface potentials and applied biases, and thus, it could be implemented in any circuit simulator very easily and extendable to short-channel devices. We also propose a simple physics-based perturbation technique by which the surface potentials of an asymmetric device could be obtained just by solving the input voltage equation of SDG devices for small asymmetry cases. The proposed model, which shows excellent agreement with numerical and TCAD simulations, is implemented in a professional circuit simulator through the Verilog-A interface and demonstrated for a 101-stage ring oscillator simulation. It is also shown that the proposed model preserves the source/drain symmetry, which is essential for RF circuit design.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Assessment of seismic hazard and liquefaction potential of Gujarat based on probabilistic approaches

Gujarat is one of the fastest-growing states of India with high industrial activities coming up in major cities of the state. It is indispensable to analyse seismic hazard as the region is considered to be most seismically active in stable continental region of India. The Bhuj earthquake of 2001 has caused extensive damage in terms of causality and economic loss. In the present study, the seismic hazard of Gujarat evaluated using a probabilistic approach with the use of logic tree framework that minimizes the uncertainties in hazard assessment. The peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were evaluated for 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Two important geotechnical effects of earthquakes, site amplification and liquefaction, are also evaluated, considering site characterization based on site classes. The liquefaction return period for the entire state of Gujarat is evaluated using a performance-based approach. The maps of PHA and PGA values prepared in this study are very useful for seismic hazard mitigation of the region in future.

Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Updating reliability models of statically loaded instrumented structures

The study extends the first order reliability method (FORM) and inverse FORM to update reliability models for existing, statically loaded structures based on measured responses. Solutions based on Bayes' theorem, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, and inverse reliability analysis are developed. The case of linear systems with Gaussian uncertainties and linear performance functions is shown to be exactly solvable. FORM and inverse reliability based methods are subsequently developed to deal with more general problems. The proposed procedures are implemented by combining Matlab based reliability modules with finite element models residing on the Abaqus software. Numerical illustrations on linear and nonlinear frames are presented. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.