927 resultados para Markov Model with Monte-Carlo microsimulations


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A Monte Carlo computer simulation technique, in which a continuum system is modeled employing a discrete lattice, has been applied to the problem of recrystallization. Primary recrystallization is modeled under conditions where the degree of stored energy is varied and nucleation occurs homogeneously (without regard for position in the microstructure). The nucleation rate is chosen as site saturated. Temporal evolution of the simulated microstructures is analyzed to provide the time dependence of the recrystallized volume fraction and grain sizes. The recrystallized volume fraction shows sigmoidal variations with time. The data are approximately fit by the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation with the expected exponents, however significant deviations are observed for both small and large recrystallized volume fractions. Under constant rate nucleation conditions, the propensity for irregular grain shapes is decreased and the density of two sided grains increases.

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The energy and specific energy absorbed in the main cell compartments (nucleus and cytoplasm) in typical radiobiology experiments are usually estimated by calculations as they are not accessible for a direct measurement. In most of the work, the cell geometry is modelled using the combination of simple mathematical volumes. We propose a method based on high resolution confocal imaging and ion beam analysis (IBA) in order to import realistic cell nuclei geometries in Monte-Carlo simulations and thus take into account the variety of different geometries encountered in a typical cell population. Seventy-six cell nuclei have been imaged using confocal microscopy and their chemical composition has been measured using IBA. A cellular phantom was created from these data using the ImageJ image analysis software and imported in the Geant4 Monte-Carlo simulation toolkit. Total energy and specific energy distributions in the 76 cell nuclei have been calculated for two types of irradiation protocols: a 3 MeV alpha particle microbeam used for targeted irradiation and a 239Pu alpha source used for large angle random irradiation. Qualitative images of the energy deposited along the particle tracks have been produced and show good agreement with images of DNA double strand break signalling proteins obtained experimentally. The methodology presented in this paper provides microdosimetric quantities calculated from realistic cellular volumes. It is based on open-source oriented software that is publicly available.

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The aim of this work is to optimize a Monte Carlo (MC) kernel for electron radiation therapy (IOERT) compatible with intraoperative usage and to integrate it within an existing IOERT dedicated treatment planning system (TPS)

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Using the Monte Carlo method the behavior of a system of true hard cylinders has been studied. Values of the length-to-breadth ratio L/D and packing fraction η have been chosen similar to those of real nematic liquid crystals. Results include radial distribution function g(r), structure factor S(k), and orientational order parameter M. These results lead to the conclusion that the hard cylinder model may be a useful reference for real mesomorphic phases.

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In this work, we introduce the Object Kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) simulator MMonCa and simulate the defect evolution in three different materials. We start by explaining the theory of OKMC and showing some details of how such theory is implemented by creating generic structures and algorithms in the objects that we want to simulate. Then we successfully reproduce simulated results for defect evolution in iron, silicon and tungsten using our simulator and compare with available experimental data and similar simulations. The comparisons validate MMonCa showing that it is powerful and flexible enough to be customized and used to study the damage evolution of defects in a wide range of solid materials.

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Subtraction of Ictal SPECT Co-registered to MRI (SISCOM) is an imaging technique used to localize the epileptogenic focus in patients with intractable partial epilepsy. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of registration algorithms involved in SISCOM analysis using FocusDET, a new user-friendly application. To this end, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to generate realistic SPECT studies. Simulated sinograms were reconstructed by using the Filtered BackProjection (FBP) algorithm and an Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization (OSEM) reconstruction method that included compensation for all degradations. Registration errors in SPECT-SPECT and SPECT-MRI registration were evaluated by comparing the theoretical and actual transforms. Patient studies with well-localized epilepsy were also included in the registration assessment. Global registration errors including SPECT-SPECT and SPECT-MRI registration errors were less than 1.2 mm on average, exceeding the voxel size (3.32 mm) of SPECT studies in no case. Although images reconstructed using OSEM led to lower registration errors than images reconstructed with FBP, differences after using OSEM or FBP in reconstruction were less than 0.2 mm on average. This indicates that correction for degradations does not play a major role in the SISCOM process, thereby facilitating the application of the methodology in centers where OSEM is not implemented with correction of all degradations. These findings together with those obtained by clinicians from patients via MRI, interictal and ictal SPECT and video-EEG, show that FocusDET is a robust application for performing SISCOM analysis in clinical practice.

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Ion beam therapy is a valuable method for the treatment of deep-seated and radio-resistant tumors thanks to the favorable depth-dose distribution characterized by the Bragg peak. Hadrontherapy facilities take advantage of the specific ion range, resulting in a highly conformal dose in the target volume, while the dose in critical organs is reduced as compared to photon therapy. The necessity to monitor the delivery precision, i.e. the ion range, is unquestionable, thus different approaches have been investigated, such as the detection of prompt photons or annihilation photons of positron emitter nuclei created during the therapeutic treatment. Based on the measurement of the induced β+ activity, our group has developed various in-beam PET prototypes: the one under test is composed by two planar detector heads, each one consisting of four modules with a total active area of 10 × 10 cm2. A single detector module is made of a LYSO crystal matrix coupled to a position sensitive photomultiplier and is read-out by dedicated frontend electronics. A preliminary data taking was performed at the Italian National Centre for Oncological Hadron Therapy (CNAO, Pavia), using proton beams in the energy range of 93–112 MeV impinging on a plastic phantom. The measured activity profiles are presented and compared with the simulated ones based on the Monte Carlo FLUKA package.

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Multi-label classification (MLC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance may be associated with multiple labels. Modeling dependencies between labels allows MLC methods to improve their performance at the expense of an increased computational cost. In this paper we focus on the classifier chains (CC) approach for modeling dependencies. On the one hand, the original CC algorithm makes a greedy approximation, and is fast but tends to propagate errors down the chain. On the other hand, a recent Bayes-optimal method improves the performance, but is computationally intractable in practice. Here we present a novel double-Monte Carlo scheme (M2CC), both for finding a good chain sequence and performing efficient inference. The M2CC algorithm remains tractable for high-dimensional data sets and obtains the best overall accuracy, as shown on several real data sets with input dimension as high as 1449 and up to 103 labels.

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In this paper, a computer-based tool is developed to analyze student performance along a given curriculum. The proposed software makes use of historical data to compute passing/failing probabilities and simulates future student academic performance based on stochastic programming methods (MonteCarlo) according to the specific university regulations. This allows to compute the academic performance rates for the specific subjects of the curriculum for each semester, as well as the overall rates (the set of subjects in the semester), which are the efficiency rate and the success rate. Additionally, we compute the rates for the Bachelors degree, which are the graduation rate measured as the percentage of students who finish as scheduled or taking an extra year and the efficiency rate (measured as the percentage of credits of the curriculum with respect to the credits really taken). In Spain, these metrics have been defined by the National Quality Evaluation and Accreditation Agency (ANECA). Moreover, the sensitivity of the performance metrics to some of the parameters of the simulator is analyzed using statistical tools (Design of Experiments). The simulator has been adapted to the curriculum characteristics of the Bachelor in Engineering Technologies at the Technical University of Madrid(UPM).

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We review the main results from extensive Monte Carlo (MC) simulations on athermal polymer packings in the bulk and under confinement. By employing the simplest possible model of excluded volume, macromolecules are represented as freely-jointed chains of hard spheres of uniform size. Simulations are carried out in a wide concentration range: from very dilute up to very high volume fractions, reaching the maximally random jammed (MRJ) state. We study how factors like chain length, volume fraction and flexibility of bond lengths affect the structure, shape and size of polymers, their packing efficiency and their phase behaviour (disorder–order transition). In addition, we observe how these properties are affected by confinement realized by flat, impenetrable walls in one dimension. Finally, by mapping the parent polymer chains to primitive paths through direct geometrical algorithms, we analyse the characteristics of the entanglement network as a function of packing density.

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The folding mechanism of a 125-bead heteropolymer model for proteins is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations on a cubic lattice. Sequences that do and do not fold in a reasonable time are compared. The overall folding behavior is found to be more complex than that of models for smaller proteins. Folding begins with a rapid collapse followed by a slow search through the semi-compact globule for a sequence-dependent stable core with about 30 out of 176 native contacts which serves as the transition state for folding to a near-native structure. Efficient search for the core is dependent on structural features of the native state. Sequences that fold have large amounts of stable, cooperative structure that is accessible through short-range initiation sites, such as those in anti-parallel sheets connected by turns. Before folding is completed, the system can encounter a second bottleneck, involving the condensation and rearrangement of surface residues. Overly stable local structure of the surface residues slows this stage of the folding process. The relation of the results from the 125-mer model studies to the folding of real proteins is discussed.

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In the Monte Carlo simulation of both lattice field theories and of models of statistical mechanics, identities verified by exact mean values, such as Schwinger-Dyson equations, Guerra relations, Callen identities, etc., provide well-known and sensitive tests of thermalization bias as well as checks of pseudo-random-number generators. We point out that they can be further exploited as control variates to reduce statistical errors. The strategy is general, very simple, and almost costless in CPU time. The method is demonstrated in the twodimensional Ising model at criticality, where the CPU gain factor lies between 2 and 4.

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A new Monte Carlo algorithm is introduced for the simulation of supercooled liquids and glass formers, and tested in two model glasses. The algorithm thermalizes well below the Mode Coupling temperature and outperforms other optimized Monte Carlo methods.

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A large fraction of Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) displays an X-ray plateau phase within <105 s from the prompt emission, proposed to be powered by the spin-down energy of a rapidly spinning newly born magnetar. In this work we use the properties of the Galactic neutron star population to constrain the GRB-magnetar scenario. We re-analyze the X-ray plateaus of all Swift GRBs with known redshift, between 2005 January and 2014 August. From the derived initial magnetic field distribution for the possible magnetars left behind by the GRBs, we study the evolution and properties of a simulated GRB-magnetar population using numerical simulations of magnetic field evolution, coupled with Monte Carlo simulations of Pulsar Population Synthesis in our Galaxy. We find that if the GRB X-ray plateaus are powered by the rotational energy of a newly formed magnetar, the current observational properties of the Galactic magnetar population are not compatible with being formed within the GRB scenario (regardless of the GRB type or rate at z = 0). Direct consequences would be that we should allow the existence of magnetars and "super-magnetars" having different progenitors, and that Type Ib/c SNe related to Long GRBs form systematically neutron stars with higher initial magnetic fields. We put an upper limit of ≤16 "super-magnetars" formed by a GRB in our Galaxy in the past Myr (at 99% c.l.). This limit is somewhat smaller than what is roughly expected from Long GRB rates, although the very large uncertainties do not allow us to draw strong conclusion in this respect.

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This master thesis deals with determining of innovative projects "viability". "Viability" is the probability of innovative project being implemented. Hidden Markov Models are used for evaluation of this factor. The problem of determining parameters of model, which produce given data sequence with the highest probability, are solving in this research. Data about innovative projects contained in reports of Russian programs "UMNIK", "START" and additional data obtained during study are used as input data for determining of model parameters. The Baum-Welch algorithm which is one implementation of expectation-maximization algorithm is used at this research for calculating model parameters. At the end part of the master thesis mathematical basics for practical implementation are given (in particular mathematical description of the algorithm and implementation methods for Markov models).