886 resultados para Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks from Perils


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The past few decades have seen major impacts of different pandemics and mass casualty events on health resource use in terms of rising health cost and increased mortality.

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The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis as a monitoring tool is becoming more and more widespread. The eDNA metabarcoding methods allow rapid community assessments of different target taxa. This work is focused on the validation of the environmental DNA metabarcoding protocol for biodiversity assessment of freshwater habitats. Scolo Dosolo was chosen as study area and three sampling points were defined for traditional and eDNA analyses. The gutter is a 205 m long anthropic canal located in Sala Bolognese (Bologna, Italy). Fish community and freshwater invertebrate metazoans were the target groups for the analysis. After a preliminary study in summer 2019, 2020 was devoted to the sampling campaign with winter (January), spring (May), summer (July) and autumn (October) surveys. Alongside with the water samplings for the eDNA study, also traditional fish surveys using the electrofishing technique were performed to assess fish community composition; census on invertebrates was performed using an entomological net and a surber sampler. After in silico analysis, the MiFish primer set amplifying a fragment of the 12s rRNA gene was selected for bony fishes. For invertebrates the FWHF2 + FWHR2N primer combination, that amplifies a region of the mitochondrial coi gene, was chosen. Raw reads were analyzed through a bioinformatic pipeline based on OBITools metabarcoding programs package and QIIME2. The OBITools pipeline retrieved seven fish taxa and 54 invertebrate taxa belonging to six different phyla, while QIIME2 recovered eight fish taxa and 45 invertebrate taxa belonging to the same six phyla as the OBITools pipeline. The metabarcoding results were then compared with the traditional surveys data and bibliographic records. Overall, the validated protocol provides a reliable picture of the biodiversity of the study area and an efficient support to the traditional methods.

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Objective: To investigate the association between the four traditional coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors (hypertension, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes) and outcomes of first ACS. Methods: Data were drawn from the ISACS Archives. The study participants consisted of 70953 patients with first ACS, but without prior CHD. Primary outcomes were patient’ age at hospital presentation and 30-day all-cause mortality. The risk ratios for mortality among subgroups were calculated using a balancing strategy by inverse probability weighting. Trends were evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient (r). Results: For fatal ACS (n=6097), exposure to at least one traditional CHD-risk factor ranged from 77.6% in women to 74.5% in men. The presence of all four CHD-risk factors significantly decreased the age at time of ACS event and death by nearly half a decade compared with the absence of any traditional risk factors in both women (from 67.1±12.0 to 61.9±10.3 years; r=-0.089, P<0.001) and men (from 62.8±12.2 to 58.9±9.9 years; r=-0.096, P<0.001). By contrast, there was an inverse association between the number of traditional CHD-risk factors and 30-day mortality. The mortality rates in women ranged from 7.7% with four traditional CHD-risk factors to 16.3% with no traditional risk factors (r=0.073, P<0.001). The corresponding rates in men were 4.8% and 11.5% (r=0.078, P<0.001), respectively. The risk ratios among individuals with at least one CHD-risk factors vs. those with no traditional risk factors were 0.72 (95%CI:0.65-0.79) in women and 0.64 (95%CI:0.59-0.70) in men. This association was consistent among patient subgroups managed with guideline-recommended therapeutic options. Conclusions: The vast majority of patients who die for ACS have traditional CHD-risk factor exposure. Patients with CHD-risk factors die much earlier in life, but they have a lower relative risk of 30-day mortality than those with no traditional CHD-risk factors, even in the context of equitable evidence‐based treatments after hospital admission.

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Distributed argumentation technology is a computational approach incorporating argumentation reasoning mechanisms within multi-agent systems. For the formal foundations of distributed argumentation technology, in this thesis we conduct a principle-based analysis of structured argumentation as well as abstract multi-agent and abstract bipolar argumentation. The results of the principle-based approach of these theories provide an overview and guideline for further applications of the theories. Moreover, in this thesis we explore distributed argumentation technology using distributed ledgers. We envision an Intelligent Human-input-based Blockchain Oracle (IHiBO), an artificial intelligence tool for storing argumentation reasoning. We propose a decentralized and secure architecture for conducting decision-making, addressing key concerns of trust, transparency, and immutability. We model fund management with agent argumentation in IHiBO and analyze its compliance with European fund management legal frameworks. We illustrate how bipolar argumentation balances pros and cons in legal reasoning in a legal divorce case, and how the strength of arguments in natural language can be represented in structured arguments. Finally, we discuss how distributed argumentation technology can be used to advance risk management, regulatory compliance of distributed ledgers for financial securities, and dialogue techniques.

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This study focused on the method known as lean production as a work-related psychosocial risk factor in a Brazilian multinational auto parts company after its merger with other multinational companies. The authors conducted a qualitative analysis of two time points: the first using on-site observation and key interviews with managers and workers during implementation of lean production in 1996; the second, 16 years later, comparing data from a document search in labor inspection records from the Ministry of Labor and Employment and legal proceedings initiated by the Office of the Public Prosecutor for Labor Affairs. The merger led to layoffs, replacements, and an increase in the workday. A class action suit was filed on grounds of aggravated working conditions. The new production model led to psychosocial risks that increased the need for workers' health precautions when changes in the production process introduced new and increased risks of physical and mental illnesses.

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Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

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The authors aim to critically examine empirical research on the effects of alcohol on HIV and AIDS from the immunological and behavioral fields. In vitro immunological studies demonstrate that social drinking increases the susceptibility of human cells to HIV infection. Animal studies show that acute and chronic alcohol ingestion increases rare of progression from retrovirus to clinical illness. In humans with HIV, no experimental evidence shows that alcohol is a cofactor of AIDS. Findings from behavioral studies show that a link between social drinking and risk of HIV is weak. No experimental evidence demonstrates that chronic drinking influences rate and course of disease progression to AIDS in humans who are HIV+. It is premature to promote the role of alcohol as a cofactor in HIV and AIDS.

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The magnitude Of functional impairment that may indicate the threshold between MCI and incipient Alzheimer`s disease (AD) has not been clearly defined. The objective was to examine the pattern of functional impairment in the continuum MCI-AD. Eighty-nine older adults (32 cognitively unimpaired, 31 MCI, and 26 AD patients) were examined with the Brazilian version of the Direct Assessment of Functional Status (DAFS-BR) at a University-based memory clinic. MCI patients were sub-divided according to the progression to AD upon follow-up, and had baseline cognitive, functional and biological variables analyzed. MCI patients displayed mild deficits in functional abilities, with intermediate scores as compared to controls and AD. The DAFS-BR items that differentiated MCI from controls involved the ability to deal with finances and shopping skills. At baseline, scores obtained by MCI patients who converted to AD were not significantly different from scores of nonconverters. The magnitude of functional deficits was associated with AD-like pathological findings in the CSF. In conclusion, MCI patients present with early functional changes in complex, instrumental abilities that require the integrity of memory and executive functions. The objective measurement of the functional state may help identify older adults with increased risk of developing dementia in the MCI-AD continuum. (JINS, 2010, 16, 297-305.)

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BACKGROUND: Rectal and pararectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are rare. The optimal management strategy for primary localized GISTs remains poorly defined. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 41 patients with localized rectal or pararectal GISTs treated between 1991 and 2011 in 13 French Sarcoma Group centers. RESULTS: Of 12 patients who received preoperative imatinib therapy for a median duration of 7 (2-12) months, 8 experienced a partial response, 3 had stable disease, and 1 had a complete response. Thirty and 11 patients underwent function-sparing conservative surgery and abdominoperineal resection, respectively. Tumor resections were mostly R0 and R1 in 35 patients. Tumor rupture occurred in 12 patients. Eleven patients received postoperative imatinib with a median follow-up of 59 (2.4-186) months. The median time to disease relapse was 36 (9.8-62) months. The 5-year overall survival rate was 86.5%. Twenty patients developed local recurrence after surgery alone, two developed recurrence after resection combined with preoperative and/or postoperative imatinib, and eight developed metastases. In univariate analysis, the mitotic index (≤5) and tumor size (≤5 cm) were associated with a significantly decreased risk of local relapse. Perioperative imatinib was associated with a significantly reduced risk of overall relapse and local relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Perioperative imatinib therapy was associated with improved disease-free survival. Preoperative imatinib was effective. Tumor shrinkage has a clear benefit for local excision in terms of feasibility and function preservation. Given the complexity of rectal GISTs, referral of patients with this rare disease to expert centers to undergo a multidisciplinary approach is recommended.

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This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

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BACKGROUND: Cost effective means of assessing the levels of risk factors in the population have to be defined in order to monitor these factors over time and across populations. This study is aimed at analyzing the difference in population estimates of the mean levels of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalences of overweight, between health examination survey and telephone survey. METHODS: The study compares the results of two health surveys, one by telephone (N=820) and the other by physical examination (N=1318). The two surveys, based on independent random samples of the population, were carried out over the same period (1992-1993) in the same population (canton of Vaud, Switzerland). RESULTS: Overall participation rates were 67% and 53% for the health interview survey (HIS) and the health examination survey (HES) respectively. In the HIS, the reporting rate was over 98% for weight and height values. Self-reported weight was on average lower than measured weight, by 2.2 kg in men and 3.5 kg in women, while self-reported height was on average greater than measured height, by 1.2 cm in men and 1.9 cm in women. As a result, in comparison to HES, HIS led to substantially lower mean levels of BMI, and to a reduction of the prevalence rates of obesity (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) by more than a half. These differences are larger for women than for men. CONCLUSION: The two surveys were based on different sampling procedures. However, this difference in design is unlikely to explain the systematic bias observed between self-reported and measured values for height and weight. This bias entails the overall validity of BMI assessment from telephone surveys.

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We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

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Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are very frequent in the whole world. Males who do not use a condom during their sexual relations are at great risk. We report cases of STD during six months of observation, among homosexual/bisexual males who participate in the Project Horizonte. There were 16 cases of genital warts, 6 cases of human immunodeficiency virus infection, 24 cases of unspecific urethritis, 28 cases of herpes simplex virus infection, 30 cases of syphilis, 58 cases of gonorrhea and 84 cases of pediculosis. We concluded that a condom must be used in all sexual relations and new counseling techniques are needed, to avoid this situation.

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The lymphatic vascular system, the body's second vascular system present in vertebrates, has emerged in recent years as a crucial player in normal and pathological processes. It participates in the maintenance of normal tissue fluid balance, the immune functions of cellular and antigen trafficking and absorption of fatty acids and lipid-soluble vitamins in the gut. Recent scientific discoveries have highlighted the role of lymphatic system in a number of pathologic conditions, including lymphedema, inflammatory diseases, and tumor metastasis. Development of genetically modified animal models, identification of lymphatic endothelial specific markers and regulators coupled with technological advances such as high-resolution imaging and genome-wide approaches have been instrumental in understanding the major steps controlling growth and remodeling of lymphatic vessels. This review highlights the recent insights and developments in the field of lymphatic vascular biology.