The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Polypyrimidine tract-binding protein interacts with coxsackievirus B3 RNA and influences its translation

We have investigated the possible role of trans-acting factors interacting with the untranslated regions (UTRs) of coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3) RNA. We show here that polypyrimidine tract-binding protein (PTB) binds specifically to both 5' and 3' UTRs, but with different affinity. We have demonstrated that PTB is a bona fide internal ribosome entry site (IRES) trans-acting factor (ITAF) for CVB3 RNA by characterizing the effect of partial silencing of FIB ex vivo in He La cells. Furthermore, IRES activity in BSC-1 cells, which are reported to have a very low level of endogenous FIB, was found to be significantly lower than that in He La cells. Additionally, we have mapped the putative contact points of PTB on the 5' and 3' UTRs by an RNA toe-printing assay. We have shown that the 3' UTR is able to stimulate CVB3 IRES-mediated translation. Interestingly, a deletion of 15 nt at the 5' end or 14 rut at the 3' end of the CVB3 3' UTR reduced the 3' UTR-mediated enhancement of IRES activity ex vivo significantly, and a reduced interaction was shown with PTB. It appears that the FIB protein might help in circularization of the CVB3 RNA by bridging the ends necessary for efficient translation of the viral RNA.

An instantaneous pulse frequency meter for random pulses

Counting-rate meters normally used for finding pulse frequencies are sluggish in their response to any rapid change in the pulse repetition frequency (P.R.F.). An instrument is described which measures each pulse interval and provides immediately afterwards an output voltage proportional to the reciprocal of interval duration. A response to a change in the P.R.F. as rapidly as is physically possible is obtained. The instrument has wide application in low level radiation detection and in several other fields especially for rapidly varying counting-rates.

Diagnosis of dominant forcing factors for large-scale vertical velocities during active and break phases of the monsoon

An attempt to diagnose the dominant forcings which drive the large-scale vertical velocities over the monsoon region has been made by computing the forcings like diabatic heating fields,etc. and the large-scale vertical velocities driven by these forcings for the contrasting periods of active and break monsoon situations; in order to understand the rainfall variability associated with them. Computation of diabatic heating fields show us that among different components of diabatic heating it is the convective heating that dominates at mid-tropospheric levels during an active monsoon period; whereas it is the sensible heating at the surface that is important during a break period. From vertical velocity calculations we infer that the prime differences in the large-scale vertical velocities seen throughout the depth of the atmosphere are due to the differences in the orders of convective heating; the maximum rate of latent heating being more than 10 degrees Kelvin per day during an active monsoon period; whereas during a break monsoon period it is of the order of 2 degrees Kelvin per day at mid-tropospheric levels. At low levels of the atmosphere, computations show that there is large-scale ascent occurring over a large spatial region, driven only by the dynamic forcing associated with vorticity and temperature advection during an active monsoon period. However, during a break monsoon period such large-scale spatial organization in rising motion is not seen. It is speculated that these differences in the low-level large-scale ascent might be causing differences in convective heating because the weaker the low level ascent, the lesser the convective instability which produces deep cumulus clouds and hence lesser the associated latent heat release. The forcings due to other components of diabatic heating, namely, the sensible heating and long wave radiative cooling do not influence the large-scale vertical velocities significantly.

Discovery of oxidative enzymes for food engineering : Tyrosinase and sulfhydryl oxidase

Enzymes offer many advantages in industrial processes, such as high specificity, mild treatment conditions and low energy requirements. Therefore, the industry has exploited them in many sectors including food processing. Enzymes can modify food properties by acting on small molecules or on polymers such as carbohydrates or proteins. Crosslinking enzymes such as tyrosinases and sulfhydryl oxidases catalyse the formation of novel covalent bonds between specific residues in proteins and/or peptides, thus forming or modifying the protein network of food. In this study, novel secreted fungal proteins with sequence features typical of tyrosinases and sulfhydryl oxidases were iden-tified through a genome mining study. Representatives of both of these enzyme families were selected for heterologous produc-tion in the filamentous fungus Trichoderma reesei and biochemical characterisation. Firstly, a novel family of putative tyrosinases carrying a shorter sequence than the previously characterised tyrosinases was discovered. These proteins lacked the whole linker and C-terminal domain that possibly play a role in cofactor incorporation, folding or protein activity. One of these proteins, AoCO4 from Aspergillus oryzae, was produced in T. reesei with a production level of about 1.5 g/l. The enzyme AoCO4 was correctly folded and bound the copper cofactors with a type-3 copper centre. However, the enzyme had only a low level of activity with the phenolic substrates tested. Highest activity was obtained with 4-tert-butylcatechol. Since tyrosine was not a substrate for AoCO4, the enzyme was classified as catechol oxidase. Secondly, the genome analysis for secreted proteins with sequence features typical of flavin-dependent sulfhydryl oxidases pinpointed two previously uncharacterised proteins AoSOX1 and AoSOX2 from A. oryzae. These two novel sulfhydryl oxidases were produced in T. reesei with production levels of 70 and 180 mg/l, respectively, in shake flask cultivations. AoSOX1 and AoSOX2 were FAD-dependent enzymes with a dimeric tertiary structure and they both showed activity on small sulfhydryl compounds such as glutathione and dithiothreitol, and were drastically inhibited by zinc sulphate. AoSOX2 showed good stabil-ity to thermal and chemical denaturation, being superior to AoSOX1 in this respect. Thirdly, the suitability of AoSOX1 as a possible baking improver was elucidated. The effect of AoSOX1, alone and in combi-nation with the widely used improver ascorbic acid was tested on yeasted wheat dough, both fresh and frozen, and on fresh water-flour dough. In all cases, AoSOX1 had no effect on the fermentation properties of fresh yeasted dough. AoSOX1 nega-tively affected the fermentation properties of frozen doughs and accelerated the damaging effects of the frozen storage, i.e. giving a softer dough with poorer gas retention abilities than the control. In combination with ascorbic acid, AoSOX1 gave harder doughs. In accordance, rheological studies in yeast-free dough showed that the presence of only AoSOX1 resulted in weaker and more extensible dough whereas a dough with opposite properties was obtained if ascorbic acid was also used. Doughs containing ascorbic acid and increasing amounts of AoSOX1 were harder in a dose-dependent manner. Sulfhydryl oxidase AoSOX1 had an enhancing effect on the dough hardening mechanism of ascorbic acid. This was ascribed mainly to the produc-tion of hydrogen peroxide in the SOX reaction which is able to convert the ascorbic acid to the actual improver dehydroascorbic acid. In addition, AoSOX1 could possibly oxidise the free glutathione in the dough and thus prevent the loss of dough strength caused by the spontaneous reduction of the disulfide bonds constituting the dough protein network. Sulfhydryl oxidase AoSOX1 is therefore able to enhance the action of ascorbic acid in wheat dough and could potentially be applied in wheat dough baking.

Method-MS, final report 2010

Radiometric determination methods, such as alpha spectrometry require long counting times when low activities are to be determined. Mass spectrometric techniques as Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), Thermal Ionisation Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) and Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) have shown several advantages compared to traditional methods when measuring long-lived radionuclides. Mass spectrometric methods for determination of very low concentrations of elemental isotopes, and thereby isotopic ratios, have been developed using a variety of ion sources. Although primarily applied to the determination of the lighter stable element isotopes and radioactive isotopes in geological studies, the techniques can equally well be applied to the measurement of activity concentrations of long-lived low-level radionuclides in various samples using “isotope dilution” methods such as those applied in inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Due to the low specific activity of long-lived radionuclides, many of these are more conveniently detected using mass spectrometric techniques. Mass spectrometry also enables the individual determination of Pu-239 and Pu-240, which cannot be obtained by alpha spectrometry. Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) are rapidly growing techniques for the ultra-trace analytical determination of stable and long-lived isotopes and have a wide potential within environmental science, including ecosystem tracers and radio ecological studies. Such instrumentation, of course needs good radiochemical separation, to give best performance. The objectives of the project is to identify current needs and problems within low-level determination of long-lived radioisotopes by ICP-MS, to perform intercalibration and development and improvement of ICP-MS methods for the measurement of radionuclides and isotope ratios and to develop new methods based on modified separation chemistry applied to new auxiliary equipment.

Arrested Drunk Drivers : Trends, social background, recidivism and mortality

The aim of this study was to examine the trends, incidence and recidivism of drunken driving during a 20-year period (1988 - 2007) using the data on all suspected drunken driving in this period. Furthermore, the association between social background and drunken driving, and the mortality of drunk drivers were studied by using administrative register data provided by Statistics Finland. The study was completely register-based. In 1989 - 1991, every year 30,000 drivers were suspected of drunken driving, but the number fell to less than 20,000 by 1994, during the economic recession. The changes in the arrest incidence of the youngest age groups were especially pronounced, most of all in the age group of 18 - 19-year olds. Even though the incidence among youth decreased dramatically, their incidence rate was still twice that of the general population aged 15 - 84 years. Drunken driving was associated with a poor social background among youth and working-aged men and women. For example, a low level of education, unemployment, divorce, and parental factors in youth were associated with a higher risk of being arrested for drunken driving. While a low income was related to more drunken driving among working-aged people, the effect among young persons was the opposite. Every third drunk driver got rearrested during a 15-year period, whereas the estimated rearrest rate was 44%. Findings of drugs only or in combination with alcohol increased the risk of rearrest. The highest rearrest rates were seen among drivers who were under the influence of amphetamines or cannabis. Also male gender, young age, high blood alcohol concentration, and arrest during weekdays and in the daytime predicted rearrest. When compared to the general population, arrested drunk drivers had significant excess mortality. The greatest relative differences were seen in alcohol-related causes of death (including alcohol diseases and alcohol poisoning), accidents, suicides and violence. Also mortality due to other than alcohol-related diseases was elevated among drunk drivers. Drunken driving was associated with multiple factors linked to traffic safety, health and social problems. Social marginalization may expose a person to harmful use of alcohol and drunken driving, and the associations are seen already among the youth. Recidivism is common among drunk drivers, and driving under the influence of illicit and/or medicinal drugs is likely to indicate worse substance abuse problems, judging from the high rearrest rates. High alcohol-related mortality in this population shows that drunken driving is clearly an indicator of alcohol abuse. More effective measures of preventing alcohol-related harms are needed, than merely preventing convicted drunk drivers from driving again.

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli in Finnish poultry production

Campylobacter, mainly Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli, are worldwide recognized as a major cause of bacterial food-borne gastroenteritis. Epidemiological studies have shown handling or eating of poultry to be significant risk factors for human infections. Campylobacter contamination can occur at all stages of a poultry meat production cycle. The aim of this thesis was to study the occurrence and diversity of Campylobacter in broiler and turkey production in Finland. In summer 1999, 2.9 % of slaughtered broiler flocks were Campylobacter-positive. From the isolated strains 94 % were C. jejuni and 6% were C. coli. During years 2005-2006 one turkey parent flock, the hatchery, six different commercial turkey farms and different stages of the slaughterhouse were monitored during one and the half year. No Campylobacter were detected in either of the samples from the turkey parent flock or from the hatchery using the culture method. Instead PCR detected DNA of Campylobacter from the turkey parent flock and samples from the hatchery. Six out of 12 commercial turkey flocks were found negative at the farm level but only two of those were negative at slaughter. Campylobacter-positive samples within the flock at slaughter were detected between 0% and 94% with evisceration and chilling water being the most critical stages for contamination. All of Campylobacter isolates were shown to be C. jejuni. Campylobacter-positive turkey flocks were colonized by a limited number of Campylobacter genotypes both at the farm and slaughter level. In conclusion, in our first study in 1999 a low prevalence of Campylobacter in Finnish broiler flocks was detected and it has remained at a low level during the study period until the present. In the turkey meat production, we found that flocks which were negative at the farm became contaminated with Campylobacter at the slaughter process. These results suggest that proper and efficient cleaning and disinfection of slaughter and processing premises are needed to avoid cross-contamination. Prevention of colonization at the farm by a high level of biosecurity control and hygiene may be one of the most efficient ways to reduce the amount of Campylobacter-positive poultry meat in Finland. With a persistent low level of Campylobacter-positive flocks, it could be speculated that the use of logistic slaughtering, according to Campylobacter status at farm, might have be advantageous in reducing Campylobacter contamination of retail poultry products. However, the significance of the domestic poultry meat for human campylobacteriosis in Finland should be evaluated.

Campylobacter jejuni and C.coli in Finnish poultry production

Campylobacter, mainly Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli, are worldwide recognized as a major cause of bacterial food-borne gastroenteritis (World Health Organization 2010). Epidemiological studies have shown handling or eating of poultry to be significant risk factors for human infections. Campylobacter contamination can occur at all stages of a poultry meat production cycle. In summer 1999, every broiler flock from all three major Finnish poultry slaughterhouses was studied during a five month period. Caecal samples were taken in the slaughterhouses from five birds per flock. A total of 1 132 broiler flocks were tested and 33 (2.9%) of those were Campylobacter-positive. Thirty-one isolates were identified as C. jejuni and two isolates were C. coli. The isolates were serotyped for heat-stable antigens (HS) and genotyped by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The most common serotypes found were HS 6,7, 12 and 4-complex. Using a combination of SmaI and KpnI patterns, 18 different PFGE types were identified. Thirty-five Finnish C. jejuni strains with five SmaI/SacII PFGE types selected among human and chicken isolates from 1997 and 1998 were used for comparison of their PFGE patterns, amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) patterns, HaeIII ribotypes, and HS serotypes. The discriminatory power of PFGE, AFLP and ribotyping with HaeIII were shown to be at the same level for this selected set of strains, and these methods assigned the strains into the same groups. The PFGE and AFLP patterns within a genotype were highly similar, indicating genetic relatedness. An HS serotype was distributed among different genotypes, and different serotypes were identified within one genotype. From one turkey parent flock, the hatchery, six different commercial turkey farms (together 12 flocks) and from 11 stages at the slaughterhouse a total of 456 samples were collected during one and the half year. For the detection of Campylobacter both conventional culture and a PCR method were used. No Campylobacter were detected in either of the samples from the turkey parent flock or from the hatchery samples using the culture method. Instead PCR detected DNA of Campylobacter in five faecal samples from the turkey parent flock and in one fluff and an eggshell sample. Six out of 12 commercial turkey flocks were found negative at the farm level but only two of those were negative at slaughter. Campylobacter-positive samples within the flock at slaughter were detected between 0% and 94%, with evisceration and chilling water being the most critical stages for contamination. All of a total of 121 Campylobacter isolates were shown to be C. jejuni using a multiplex PCR assay. PFGE analysis of all isolates with KpnI restriction enzyme resulted in 11 PFGE types (I-XI) and flaA-SVR typing yielded nine flaA-SVR alleles. Three Campylobacter-positive turkey flocks were colonized by a limited number of Campylobacter genotypes both at the farm and slaughter level.In conclusion, in our first study in 1999 a low prevalence of Campylobacter in Finnish broiler flocks was detected and it has remained at a low level during the study period until the present. In the turkey meat production, we found that flocks which were negative at the farm became contaminated with Campylobacter at the slaughter process. These results suggest that proper and efficient cleaning and disinfection of slaughter and processing premises are needed to avoid cross-contamination. Prevention of colonization at the farm by a high level of biosecurity control and hygiene may be one of the most efficient ways to reduce the amount of Campylobacter-positive poultry meat in Finland. In Finland, with a persistent low level of Campylobacter-positive flocks, it could be speculated that the use of logistic slaughtering, according to Campylobacter status at farm, might have be advantageous in reducing Campylobacter contamination of retail poultry products. However, the significance of the domestic poultry meat for human campylobacteriosis in Finland should be evaluated.

Aperiodic Variability in the Cane-Zebiak Model: A Diagnostic Study

The finite predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is determined by its aperiodic variability. To gain insight regarding the predictability of such a system, a series of diagnostic studies has been carried out to investigate the role of convergence feedback in producing the aperiodic behavior of the standard version of the Cane-Zebiak model. In this model, an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) increases atmospheric heating by enhancing local evaporation (SST anomaly feedback) and low-level convergence (convergence feedback). The convergence feedback is a nonlinear function of the background mean convergence field. For the set of standard parameters used in the model, it is shown that the convergence feedback contributes importantly to the aperiodic behaviour of the model. As the strength of the convergence feedback is increased from zero to its standard value, the model variability goes from a periodic regime to an aperiodic regime through a broadening of the frequency spectrum around the basic periodicity of about 4 years. Examination of the forcing associated with the convergence feedback reveals that it is intermittent, with relatively large amplitude only during 2 or 3 months in the early part of the calendar year. This seasonality in the efficiency of the convergence feedback is related to the strong seasonality of the mean convergence over the eastern Pacific. It is shown that if the mean convergence field is fixed at its March value, aperiodic behavior is produced even in the absence of annual cycles in the other mean fields. On the, other hand, if the mean convergence field is fixed at its September value, the coupled model evolution remains close to periodic, even in the presence of the annual cycle in the other fields. The role of convergence feedback on the aperiodic variability of the model for other parameter regimes is also examined. It is shown that a range exists in the strength of the SST anomaly feedback for which the model variability is aperiodic even without the convergence feedback. It appears that in the absence of convergence feedback, enhancement of the strength of the air-sea coupling in the model through other physical processes also results in aperiodicity in the model.

Mykorritsa fosforin kierrättäjänä

Suomen maatalousmaihin kertynyttä fosforia hyödynnetään tehottomasti, ja samalla muokkauskerroksen suuri fosforimäärä on alttiina huuhtoutumiselle. Arbuskelimykorritsaa (AM) hyödyntämällä on mahdollista tehostaa viljelykasvin fosforinottoa ja kasvua, ja siten vähentää fosforin huuhtoutumista. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää mykorritsan vaikutus kasvin kasvuun ja fosforinottoon karjanlantalannoituksella mineraalilannoitukseen verrattuna sekä näiden lannoitusten pitkäaikaisvaikutusta AM-sieniyhteisöihin. Jotta lannoituskäytäntöjen vaikutus mykorritsaan voitiin suhteuttaa muihin maan laatutekijöihin, näiden käytäntöjen vaikutus myös satomääriin sekä muihin maan laatumittareihin arvioitiin. Pitkäaikainen kenttäkoe perustettiin kolmelle paikkakunnalle Pohjois-Ruotsissa vuosina 1965–66. Kuusivuotinen viljelykierto koostui joko viisivuotisesta nurmesta ja ohrasta tai ohramonokulttuurista. Lannoituskäsittelyt 32-vuoden ajan olivat suositusten mukainen (NPK) ja edelliseen nähden kaksinkertainen (2NPK) mineraalilannoitus sekä karjanlantalannoitus (KL), jonka ravinnemäärä vastasi NPK -käsittelyä. Kolmen lannoituskäsittelyn vaikutusta mykorritsan tehokkuuteen kasvin kasvun ja fosforiravitsemuksen näkökulmasta tutkittiin astiakokeissa. Mykorritsasieniyhteisöjen toiminnallisten erojen selvittämiseksi tehtiin takaisin- ja ristiinsiirrostuskoe. (5 v-%) steriloitua maanäytettä NPK- ja KL -käsittelyistä siirrostettiin käsittelemättömiin maanäytteisiin, jotka olivat samoista lannoituskäsittelyistä. Mykorritsan positiivinen vaikutus kasvin kasvuun ja fosforiravitsemukseen oli suurin kun käytettiin karjanlantaa. NPK ja 2NPK -käsittelyiden välillä ei havaittu eroja. Takaisin- ja ristiinsiirrostuskokeessa ei ollut tilastollisesti merkitseviä eroja. Nurmi- ja ohrasadot olivat suurimmat kun mineraalilannoitetta annettiin suosituksiin nähden kaksinkertainen määrä. Satomäärät olivat yhtä suuret tai suuremmat kun käytettiin karjanlantaa NPK –lannoituksen sijaan. Karjanlantakäsittely lisäsi maaperän kokonaishiili- ja kokonaistyppipitoisuutta verrattuna NPK -käsittelyyn, joka sisälsi saman määrän ravinteita. Samalla huuhtoutumiselle altis liukoisen fosforin pitoisuus säilyi alhaisella tasolla. Karjanlanta edisti mykorritsan toimintaedellytyksiä, ja siksi mykorritsasta saatua hyötyä fosforinotossa ja kasvuvaikutuksena mineraalilannoitteisiin verrattuna, mutta se ei vaikuttanut mykorritsasieniyhteisön toiminnallisiin ominaisuuksiin. Karjanlantalannoitus paransi mitattuja maan ominaisuuksia kokonaisuudessaan, eikä se vähentänyt satoja.

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

'South-South' Remittance - Poverty reduction nexus. The Case of 'Hadiya' immigrants in South Africa, as Agents of 'Constituence development' in Ethiopia, and the policy implications of their 'remittance instrument'

This thesis explores the link between South-South remittance and development. It attempts to establish improved understanding about the role of immigrants as agents of constituency growth and development. By doing so, it illuminates the dark corners of the policy implications that the unconventional development agency of immigrants might have for countries in the Organization ft Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The thesis problematises the existence of state-centric international cooperation as providing the recipe for failed Aid in the face of global poverty menace. In the last half a century, the relative shi' of focus to non-state actors brought about the proliferation of NGOs. That, intrun, helped improve international access to crisis situations; however, their long-term remedial impacts on poverty and development have been contested. Major misgivings for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are, on one hand, low level goal-bound expenditures and lack of independence from influence of the state, on the other. Therefore, the thesis enterprises to empirically verify its fundamental question whether remitting immigrants constitute an alternative development agency to the traditional players: the State and NGOs. Its main arguments are: due to state's failures in bringing sustainable development in many countries of the South, the future of poverty reduction and development also rests in immigrants' remittances. Nonetheless, in the last decade, remittance security-nexus dominated its discourse. Because of that remittance was viewed as something requiring global regime and restrictions. These temptations to tightly regulate remittance flows carry the danger of overlooking its trans-boundary nature and its strong link with livelihood of the poor. Therefore, to avoid unintended consequences of interventions, there need to be clear policy that bases itself on a discursive knowledge on the issues of North-South and South-South remittances The study involved both literature based and empirical research. It employed Discourse Analysis (C as main method for the former and snow-balling as its approach for the latter. For the first part the thesis constructed three conceptual models, these are: metrological model, police model and ecological model on remittance development-nexus. Through this modeling, the thesis achieved better deconstruction on the concepts remittance, immigrants and development agency. The protagonists of each model, the values and interests they represent, and their main arguments along various lines of dichotomies have been discussed. For instance, the main treats of meteorological model include: it sees remittance as transitional economic variable which require constant speculations and global management; it acts as meteorological station for following up or predicting the level, direction, flow and movement of global remittance. It focuses on official lines and considers the state as legitimate recipient of advic and positive consequence of remittance. On the other hand, police model views remittance as beir at best, development neutral or as an illicit activity requiring global regulations and tight control. Both immigrants and remittance viewed as subversive to establishments. It gives primacy to state stable agent of development and a partner for international cooperation. The anti-thesis to the police model is supplied by ecological model, which this thesis is a part. Ecological model on remittance and immigrants argues that, tight global regulations alone cannot be a panacea for possible abuse of informal remittance system. Ecological model, not only links remittance to poverty reduction, the main trust of development, but also considers the development agency of immigrants as critical factor for 21st century north-south development intervention. It sees immigrants as development conscious and their remittance instrument as most stable flow of finance to the developing countries. Besides, it sees remittance as effective poverty solutions than Foreign Direct Investment and international AID. This thesis focuses on the significance of South-South remittance and investigates the South Africa - Ethiopia remittance corridor, as case study; and empirically verifies the role of Ethiopian (Kembata and Hadiya) immigrants in South Africa as agents of local development back home. The study involved techniques of interview, group discussions, observations and investigative study. It also looked into the determinants of their migration to South Africa, and their remittance to Ethiopia. The theoretical models in the first part of the thesis have been operationalised throughout the empirical part to verify if the Kembata and Hadiya immigrants played the crucial role in their household poverty and local development in comparison with the Ethiopian state and the NGOs involved in the system. As evidenced by the research the thesis has made three distinct contributions to the discourse of remittance development-nexus. Fist, it systematized the debate about linkages between remittance, immigrants, development agency and policy of international cooperation by creating three conceptual models (school of thoughts); second, it singled out remitting immigrants as new agents of development in the South; third, it deconstructed concept of remittance and established South¬South remittance as additional sphere of academic investigation. In addition to the above contributions, the thesis finds that Kembata and Hadiya immigrants have engaged in various developmental activities in their locality than usually anticipated. Hence, it concludes that Ethiopian immigrants constitute an alternative development agency to the state and other non-state actors in their country, and the lesson can be applied to poverty reduction strategies in most developing countries.

Dietary habits and obesity: the role of emotional and cognitive factors

In post-industrialised societies, food is more plentiful, accessible and palatable than ever before and technological development has reduced the need for physical activity. Consequently, the prevalence of obesity is increasing, which is problematic as obesity is related to a number of diseases. Various psychological and social factors have an important influence on dietary habits and the development of obesity in the current food-rich and sedentary environments. The present study concentrates on the associations of emotional and cognitive factors with dietary intake and obesity as well as on the role these factors play in socioeconomic disparities in diet. Many people cognitively restrict their food intake to prevent weight gain or to lose weight, but research on whether restrained eating is a useful weight control strategy has produced conflicting findings. With respect to emotional factors, the evidence is accumulating that depressive symptoms are related to less healthy dietary intake and obesity, but the mechanisms explaining these associations remain unclear. Furthermore, it is not fully understood why socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals tend to have unhealthier dietary habits and the motives underlying food choices (e.g., price and health) could be relevant in this respect. The specific aims of the study were to examine 1) whether obesity status and dieting history moderate the associations of restrained eating with overeating tendencies, self-control and obesity indicators; 2) whether the associations of depressive symptoms with unhealthier dietary intake and obesity are attributable to a tendency for emotional eating and a low level of physical activity self-efficacy; and 3) whether the absolute or relative importance of food choice motives (health, pleasure, convenience, price, familiarity and ethicality) contribute to the socioeconomic disparities in dietary habits. The study was based on a large population-based sample of Finnish adults: the participants were men (N=2325) and women (N=2699) aged 25-74 who took part in the DILGOM (Dietary, Lifestyle and Genetic Determinants of Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome) sub-study of the National FINRISK Study 2007. The participants weight, height, waist circumference and body fat percentage were measured in a health examination. Psychological eating styles (the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18), food choice motives (a shortened version of the Food Choice Questionnaire), depressive symptoms (the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) and self-control (the Brief Self-Control Scale) were measured with pre-existing questionnaires. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to assess the average consumption of sweet and non-sweet energy-dense foods and vegetables/fruit. Self-reported total years of education and gross household income were used as indicators of socioeconomic position. The results indicated that 1) restrained eating was related to a lower body mass index, waist circumference, emotional eating and uncontrolled eating, and to a higher self-control in obese participants and current/past dieters. In contrast, the associations were the opposite in normal weight individuals and those who had never dieted. Thus, restrained eating may be related to better weight control among obese individuals and those with dieting experiences, while among others it may function as an indicator of problems with eating and an attempt to solve them. 2) Emotional eating and depressive symptoms were both related to less healthy dietary intake, and the greater consumption of energy-dense sweet foods among participants with elevated depressive symptoms was attributable to the susceptibility for emotional eating. In addition, emotional eating and physical activity self-efficacy were both important in explaining the positive association between depressive symptoms and obesity. 3) The lower vegetable/fruit intake and higher energy-dense food intake among individuals with a low socioeconomic position were partly explained by the higher priority they placed on price and familiarity and the lower priority they gave to health motives in their daily food choices. In conclusion, although policy interventions to change the obesogenic nature of the current environment are definitely needed, knowledge of the factors that hinder or facilitate people s ability to cope with the food-rich environment is also necessary. This study implies that more emphasis should be placed on various psychological and social factors in weight control programmes and interventions.