Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction - A Comparative Study on the Basis of the First Hungarian Bankruptcy Model

The article attempts to answer the question whether or not the latest bankruptcy prediction techniques are more reliable than traditional mathematical–statistical ones in Hungary. Simulation experiments carried out on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy prediction model clearly prove that bankruptcy models built using artificial neural networks have higher classification accuracy than models created in the 1990s based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The article presents the main results, analyses the reasons for the differences and presents constructive proposals concerning the further development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction.

Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses:predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Purpose: To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. Method: A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Results: Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34. ±. 12. years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (p. <. 0.01); HBM was less predictive with only the severity (past behaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (p. <. 0.05). Conclusions: Non-compliance with DDCLs replacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Factors Associated With Reporting Of Abuse Against Children And Adolescents By Nurses Within Primary Health Care.

to analyze the factors associated with the underreporting on the part of nurses within Primary Health Care of abuse against children and adolescents. cross-sectional study with 616 nurses. A questionnaire addressed socio-demographic data, profession, instrumentation and knowledge on the topic, identification and reporting of abuse cases. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was used. female nurses, aged between 21 and 32 years old, not married, with five or more years since graduation, with graduate studies, and working for five or more years in PHC predominated. The final regression model showed that factors such as working for five or more years, having a reporting form within the PHC unit, and believing that reporting within Primary Health Care is an advantage, facilitate reporting. the study's results may, in addition to sensitizing nurses, support management professionals in establishing strategies intended to produce compliance with reporting as a legal device that ensures the rights of children and adolescents.

Survey regional sobre crescimento e desenvolvimento : relações com maturação, sobrepeso e obesidade, nível socioeconômico e desempenho motor

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study

Objective To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity.Design Multicenter cross-sectional study.Setting Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010.Population A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications.Methods The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women.Main outcome measures The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome.Results Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death).Conclusion Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Aleitamento materno, alimentação complementar, sobrepeso e obesidade em pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Analisar a associação do sobrepeso e da obesidade com o aleitamento materno e a alimentação complementar em pré-escolares. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 566 crianças matriculadas em escolas particulares no município de São Paulo, SP, 2004-2005. A variável dependente foi sobrepeso e obesidade. Para a classificação do estado nutricional das crianças foram utilizadas as curvas de percentis do Índice de Massa Corporal para idade, classificando como sobrepeso valores e"P85 e modelo hierarquizado. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade da população estudada foi de 34,4%. Foram fatores de proteção contra sobrepeso e obesidade o aleitamento materno exclusivo por seis meses ou mais (IC 95% [0,38;0,86]; OR=0,57; p=0,02) e o aleitamento materno por mais de 24 meses (IC 95% [0,05;0,37]; OR=0,13; p=0,00). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados sugerem que o aleitamento materno pode proteger as crianças contra o sobrepeso e a obesidade, agregando mais uma vantagem ao leite materno.

Determinantes individuais da utilização de serviços odontológicos por adultos e idosos de baixa renda

A utilização de serviços odontológicos resulta da interação de determinantes biológicos com fatores socioculturais, familiares e comunitários, bem como de características dos sistemas de saúde. O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar os fatores individuais associados à utilização de serviços odontológicos por parte de adultos e idosos de baixa renda residentes na área de abrangência da Estratégia Saúde da Família, em Ponta Grossa, PR. A amostra constou de 246 indivíduos, com 35 anos de idade ou mais, que responderam a um questionário sobre condições socioeconômicas, necessidade percebida e acesso a serviços odontológicos. A análise dos dados foi realizada por meio de regressão logística, segundo referencial teórico baseado no Modelo Comportamental de Andersen, considerando a consulta odontológica não recente como variável dependente. Verificou-se elevada prevalência de problemas bucais auto-referidos e de perdas dentárias. Cerca de 40% dos adultos e 67% dos idosos não iam ao dentista há mais de três anos. Indivíduos que não residiam em domicílios próprios, realizavam higiene bucal com menor frequência e utilizavam próteses totais apresentaram maiores chances de haver utilizado os serviços odontológicos há mais tempo. O fato de possuir um dentista regular foi identificado como fator de proteção na análise. Concluindo, os determinantes individuais mostraram-se importantes indicadores de acesso aos serviços de saúde bucal. O modelo teórico confirmou a presença de desigualdades sociais e psicossociais na utilização de serviços odontológicos entre os adultos e idosos de baixa renda.

Hipertensão arterial referida e indicadores antropométricos de gordura em idosos

OBJETIVO: Investigar a associação entre hipertensão arterial referida (HAr) e indicadores antropométricos de gordura, corporal e abdominal em idosos do município de São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Os dados de 1894 idosos foram baseados na pesquisa Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento - SABE, 2000. Os indicadores antropométricos utilizados foram: Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC), perímetro da cintura (PC), razão cintura/quadril (RCQ) e razão cintura/estatura (RCE). Utilizou-se regressão logística binária, estratificada por sexo. RESULTADOS: A hipertensão arterial associou-se aos indicadores antropométricos. No modelo final (ajustado para idade, escolaridade, tabagismo, atividade física e diabetes), em ambos os sexos, o IMC apresentou maior força estatística, apesar de, nas mulheres, apresentar-se similar aos outros indicadores. À exceção da RCE, em homens, a HAr associou-se, positiva e independentemente, aos outros indicadores. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem a relevância desses indicadores, para, precocemente, detectar os riscos para o desenvolvimento dessa doença e intervir na sua prevenção e controle.

Prevalência de anticorpos anti-Chlamydophila spp. em propriedades rurais com histórico de aborto bovino no estado do Paraná

Chlamydophila abortus é o agente etiológico do aborto epizoótico bovino, cujas manifestações clínicas mais freqüentes são aborto, nascimento de bezerros prematuros e de animais fracos, natimorto e repetição de cio em intervalos irregulares. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a prevalência de anticorpos anti-Chlamydophila spp. em fêmeas bovinas de propriedades rurais com histórico de aborto, selecionadas dentro do delineamento amostral do Plano Nacional de Controle e Erradicação da Brucelose e Tuberculose no estado do Paraná. Foram testadas pela prova de fixação de complemento 3.102 amostras de soro de fêmeas bovinas (idade > 24 meses), provenientes de 373 propriedades. Ao total, 44 (1,42%) animais foram positivos com títulos > 32. A prevalência de focos foi de 8,82% (6,15%-12,17%). Animais confinados ou semi-confinados (OR=3.339, P=0.004), propriedade com menos de 35 matrizes (OR=3.339, P=0.017), presença de produtos do aborto na pastagem (OR=2.372, P=0.037) e aluguel de pasto (OR=3.398, P=0.006) foram considerados fatores de risco para Chlamydophila spp. A infecção por Chlamydophila spp. acometeu um número pequeno de animais, oriundos de propriedades com histórico de aborto. A importância deste agente como causa de aborto em bovinos no estado do Paraná, se existir, é muito pequena.

Qualidade de vida associada a saúde e condições de trabalho entre profissionais de enfermagem

OBJETIVO: Avaliar condições de trabalho associadas à qualidade de vida relacionada à saúde entre profissionais de enfermagem. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal realizado em um hospital universitário de São Paulo, SP, em 2004-2005. A população estudada foi de 696 enfermeiros, técnicos e auxiliares de enfermagem, predominantemente feminina (87,8 por cento) e que trabalhava em turnos diurnos e/ou noturnos. Os dados sociodemográficos, de condições de trabalho e de vida, hábitos de vida e sintomas de saúde auto-referidos foram obtidos por meio de questionários auto-aplicados: Resultados de Estudos de Saúde - versão reduzida, Escala de Estresse no Trabalho e Desequilíbrio Esforço-Recompensa. Valores do coeficiente 1,01 significam mais esforços do que recompensas no trabalho. Modelos de regressão logística ordinal de chances proporcionais foram ajustados para cada dimensão do SF-36. RESULTADOS: Aproximadamente 22 por cento da população foi classificada como trabalhando em condições de alto desgaste e 8 por cento com mais esforços do que recompensas no trabalho. As dimensões com piores escores médios no SF-36 foram vitalidade, dor e saúde mental. Alto desgaste no trabalho, ter mais esforços que recompensas e ser enfermeira associaram-se de maneira independente aos baixos escores da dimensão de aspectos emocionais. As dimensões relacionadas à saúde mental foram as que mais sofreram influência dos fatores psicossociais do trabalho. CONCLUSÕES: Apresentar mais esforços do que recompensas no trabalho foi mais significativo para a qualidade de vida associada à saúde do que o alto desgaste no trabalho (altas demandas e baixo controle). Os resultados indicam que a análise conjunta dos fatores psicossociais de desequilíbrio esforço-recompensa e demanda-controle contribuiu para a discussão sobre os papéis profissionais, condições de trabalho e qualidade de vida relacionada à saúde de profissionais de enfermagem

Risk factors for neonatal transfers from the Sapopemba free-standing birth centre to a hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.