Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Population pharmacokinetic model of canrenone after intravenous administration of potassium canrenoate to paediatric patients

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT • Little is known about the pharmacokinetics of potassium canrenoate/canrenone in paediatric patients WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS • A population pharmacokinetic model has been developed to evaluate the pharmacokinetics of canrenone in paediatric patients who received potassium canrenoate as part of their therapy in the intensive care unit. AIMS To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of canrenone following administration of potassium canrenoate to paediatric patients. METHODS Data were collected prospectively from 23 paediatric patients (2 days to 10 years of age; median weight 4 kg, range 2.16–28.0 kg) who received intravenous potassium canrenoate (K-canrenoate) as part of their intensive care therapy for removal of retained fluids, e.g. in pulmonary oedema due to chronic lung disease and for the management of congestive heart failure. Plasma samples were analyzed by HPLC for determination of canrenone (the major metabolite and pharmacologically active moiety) and the data subjected to pharmacokinetic analysis using NONMEM. RESULTS A one compartment model best described the data. The only significant covariate was weight (WT). The final population models for canrenone clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) were CL/F (l h−1) = 11.4 × (WT/70.0)0.75 and V/F (l) = 374.2 × (WT/70) where WT is in kg. The values of CL/F and V/F in a 4 kg child would be 1.33 l h−1 and 21.4 l, respectively, resulting in an elimination half-life of 11.2 h. CONCLUSIONS The range of estimated CL/F in the study population was 0.67–7.38 l h−1. The data suggest that adjustment of K-canrenoate dosage according to body weight is appropriate in paediatric patients.

Total solution of Gibilaro and Rowe model for a segregating fluidised bed

This study re-examines the one-dimensional equilibrium model of Gibilaro and Rowe (1974) for a segregating gas fluidized bed. The model was based on volumetric jetsam concentration and divided the bed contents into bulk and wake phases, taking account of bulk and wake flux, segregation, exchange between the bulk and wake phases, and axial mixing. Due to the complex nature of the model and its unstable solution, the lack of computing power at the time prevented the authors from doing little more than the analytical solutions to specific cases of this model. This paper provides a numerical total solution and allows the effect of the respective parameters to be compared for the first time. There is also a comparison with experimental results, which showed a reasonable agreement.

Do little embryos make big decisions? How maternal dietary protein restriction can permanently change an embryo's potential, affecting adult health

Periconceptional environment may influence embryo development, ultimately affecting adult health. Here, we review the rodent model of maternal low-protein diet specifically during the preimplantation period (Emb-LPD) with normal nutrition during subsequent gestation and postnatally. This model, studied mainly in the mouse, leads to cardiovascular, metabolic and behavioural disease in adult offspring, with females more susceptible. We evaluate the sequence of events from diet administration that may lead to adult disease. Emb-LPD changes maternal serum and/or uterine fluid metabolite composition, notably with reduced insulin and branched-chain amino acids. This is sensed by blastocysts through reduced mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 signalling. Embryos respond by permanently changing the pattern of development of their extra-embryonic lineages, trophectoderm and primitive endoderm, to enhance maternal nutrient retrieval during subsequent gestation. These compensatory changes include stimulation in proliferation, endocytosis and cellular motility, and epigenetic mechanisms underlying them are being identified. Collectively, these responses act to protect fetal growth and likely contribute to offspring competitive fitness. However, the resulting growth adversely affects long-term health because perinatal weight positively correlates with adult disease risk. We argue that periconception environmental responses reflect developmental plasticity and 'decisions' made by embryos to optimise their own development, but with lasting consequences.

A template model predicts detection of sparse stimul

Contemporary models of contrast integration across space assume that pooling operates uniformly over the target region. For sparse stimuli, where high contrast regions are separated by areas containing no signal, this strategy may be sub-optimal because it pools more noise than signal as area increases. Little is known about the behaviour of human observers for detecting such stimuli. We performed an experiment in which three observers detected regular textures of various areas, and six levels of sparseness. Stimuli were regular grids of horizontal grating micropatches, each 1 cycle wide. We varied the ratio of signals (marks) to gaps (spaces), with mark:space ratios ranging from 1 : 0 (a dense texture with no spaces) to 1 : 24. To compensate for the decline in sensitivity with increasing distance from fixation, we adjusted the stimulus contrast as a function of eccentricity based on previous measurements [Baldwin, Meese & Baker, 2012, J Vis, 12(11):23]. We used the resulting area summation functions and psychometric slopes to test several filter-based models of signal combination. A MAX model failed to predict the thresholds, but did a good job on the slopes. Blanket summation of stimulus energy improved the threshold fit, but did not predict an observed slope increase with mark:space ratio. Our best model used a template matched to the sparseness of the stimulus, and pooled the squared contrast signal over space. Templates for regular patterns have also recently been proposed to explain the regular appearance of slightly irregular textures (Morgan et al, 2012, Proc R Soc B, 279, 2754–2760)

Lokális energiamódszer kicsi rendben gerjesztett Liénard-egyenletekre (Local energy method for little order forced equations)

Az x''+f(x) x'+g(x) = 0 alakú Liénard-típusú differenciálegyenlet központi szerepet játszik az üzleti ciklusok Káldor-Kalecki-féle [3,4] és Goodwin-féle [2] modelljeiben, sőt egy a munkanélküliség és vállalkozás-ösztönzések ciklikus változásait leíró újabb modellben [1] is. De ugyanez a nemlineáris egyenlettípus a gerjesztett ingák és elektromos rezgőkörök elméletét is felöleli [5]. Az ezzel kapcsolatos irodalom nagyrészt a határciklusok létezését vizsgálja (pl. [5]), pedig az alapvető stabilitási kérdések jóval áttekinthetőbb módon kezelhetők, s a kapott eredmények közvetve a határciklusok létezésének feltételeit is sokkal jobban be tudják határolni. Jelen dolgozatban az egyváltozós analízis hatékony nyelvezetével olyan egyszerűen megfogalmazható eredményekhez jutunk, amelyek képesek kitágítani az üzleti és más közgazdasági ciklusok modelljeinek kereteit, illetve pl. az [1]-beli modellhez újabb szemléltető speciális eseteket is nyerünk. ____ The Liénard type differential equation of the form x00 + f(x) ¢ x0 + g(x) = 0 has a central role in business cycle models by Káldor [3], Kalecki [4] and Goodwin [2], moreover in a new model describing the cyclical behavior of unemployment and entrepreneurship [1]. The same type of nonlinear equation explains the features of forced pendulums and electric circuits [5]. The related literature discusses mainly the existence of limit cycles, although the fundamental stability questions of this topic can be managed much more easily. The achieved results also outline the conditions for the existence of limit cycles. In this work, by the effective language of real valued analysis, we obtain easy-formulated results which may broaden the frames of economic and business cycle models, moreover we may gain new illustrative particular cases for e.g., [1].

Simulations of Theoretical Ecosystem Growth Model (TEGM) during various climate conditions

Climate change has a great impact on the build and the work of natural ecosystems. Disappearance of some population or growth of the number in some species can be already caused by little change in temperature. A Theoretical Ecosystem Growth Model was investigated in order to examine the effects of various climate patterns on the ecological equilibrium. The answers of the ecosystems which are given to the climate change could be described by means of global climate modelling and dynamic vegetation models. The examination of the operation of the ecosystems is only possible in huge centres on supercomputers because of the number and the complexity of the calculation. The number of the calculation could be decreased to the level of a PC by considering the temperature and the reproduction during the modelling of a theoretical ecosystem and several important theoretical questions could be answered.

Team diversity and leadership: Tests of model of process and direct effects

A model was tested to examine relationships among leadership behaviors, team diversity, and team process measures with team performance and satisfaction at both the team and leader-member levels of analysis. Relationships between leadership behavior and team demographic and cognitive diversity were hypothesized to have both direct effects on organizational outcomes as well as indirect effects through team processes. Leader member differences were investigated to determine the effects of leader-member diversity leader-member exchange quality, individual effectiveness and satisfaction.^ Leadership had little direct effect on team performance, but several strong positive indirect effects through team processes. Demographic Diversity had no impact on team processes, directly impacted only one performance measure, and moderated the leadership to team process relationship.^ Cognitive Diversity had a number of direct and indirect effects on team performance, the net effects uniformly positive, and did not moderate the leadership to team process relationship.^ In sum, the team model suggests a complex combination of leadership behaviors positively impacting team processes, demographic diversity having little impact on team process or performance, cognitive diversity having a positive net impact impact, and team processes having mixed effects on team outcomes.^ At the leader-member level, leadership behaviors were a strong predictor of Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) quality. Leader-member demographic and cognitive dissimilarity were each predictors of LMX quality, but failed to moderate the leader behavior to LMX quality relationship. LMX quality was strongly and positively related to self reported effectiveness and satisfaction.^ The study makes several contributions to the literature. First, it explicitly links leadership and team diversity. Second, demographic and cognitive diversity are conceptualized as distinct and multi-faceted constructs. Third, a methodology for creating an index of categorical demographic and interval cognitive measures is provided so that diversity can be measured in a holistic conjoint fashion. Fourth, the study simultaneously investigates the impact of diversity at the team and leader-member levels of analyses. Fifth, insights into the moderating impact of different forms of team diversity on the leadership to team process relationship are provided. Sixth, this study incorporates a wide range of objective and independent measures to provide a 360$\sp\circ$ assessment of team performance. ^

Menu Engineering: A Model Including Labor

Menu engineering is a methodology to classify menu items by their contribution margin and popularity. The process discounts the importance of food cost percentage, recognizing that operators deposit cash, not percentages. The authors raise the issue that strict application of the principles of menu engineering may result in an erroneous evaluation of a menu item, and also may be of little use without considering the variable portion of labor. They describe an enhancement to the process by considering labor.

A Model for Costing Absenteeism in Hotels

While absenteeism models have been developed and applied in the manufacturing industries, little work has been done on absenteeism in service industries. Due to the labor intensity of service industries, specifically the hotel industry, a model to track and quantify the costs of absenteeism could be useful to managers. The authors propose just such a model.

Development of test-based wind-driven rain intrusion model for hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage

Major portion of hurricane-induced economic loss originates from damages to building structures. The damages on building structures are typically grouped into three main categories: exterior, interior, and contents damage. Although the latter two types of damages, in most cases, cause more than 50% of the total loss, little has been done to investigate the physical damage process and unveil the interdependence of interior damage parameters. Building interior and contents damages are mainly due to wind-driven rain (WDR) intrusion through building envelope defects, breaches, and other functional openings. The limitation of research works and subsequent knowledge gaps, are in most part due to the complexity of damage phenomena during hurricanes and lack of established measurement methodologies to quantify rainwater intrusion. This dissertation focuses on devising methodologies for large-scale experimental simulation of tropical cyclone WDR and measurements of rainwater intrusion to acquire benchmark test-based data for the development of hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage model. Target WDR parameters derived from tropical cyclone rainfall data were used to simulate the WDR characteristics at the Wall of Wind (WOW) facility. The proposed WDR simulation methodology presents detailed procedures for selection of type and number of nozzles formulated based on tropical cyclone WDR study. The simulated WDR was later used to experimentally investigate the mechanisms of rainwater deposition/intrusion in buildings. Test-based dataset of two rainwater intrusion parameters that quantify the distribution of direct impinging raindrops and surface runoff rainwater over building surface — rain admittance factor (RAF) and surface runoff coefficient (SRC), respectively —were developed using common shapes of low-rise buildings. The dataset was applied to a newly formulated WDR estimation model to predict the volume of rainwater ingress through envelope openings such as wall and roof deck breaches and window sill cracks. The validation of the new model using experimental data indicated reasonable estimation of rainwater ingress through envelope defects and breaches during tropical cyclones. The WDR estimation model and experimental dataset of WDR parameters developed in this dissertation work can be used to enhance the prediction capabilities of existing interior damage models such as the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM).^

Investigation of spatial patterns of ground-water exchange with lakes, using a three-dimensional numerical model

Hydrogeologic variables controlling groundwater exchange with inflow and flow-through lakes were simulated using a three-dimensional numerical model (MODFLOW) to investigate and quantify spatial patterns of lake bed seepage and hydraulic head distributions in the porous medium surrounding the lakes. Also, the total annual inflow and outflow were calculated as a percentage of lake volume for flow-through lake simulations. The general exponential decline of seepage rates with distance offshore was best demonstrated at lower anisotropy ratio (i.e., Kh/Kv = 1, 10), with increasing deviation from the exponential pattern as anisotropy was increased to 100 and 1000. 2-D vertical section models constructed for comparison with 3-D models showed that groundwater heads and seepages were higher in 3-D simulations. Addition of low conductivity lake sediments decreased seepage rates nearshore and increased seepage rates offshore in inflow lakes, and increased the area of groundwater inseepage on the beds of flow-through lakes. Introduction of heterogeneity into the medium decreased the water table and seepage ratesnearshore, and increased seepage rates offshore in inflow lakes. A laterally restricted aquifer located at the downgradient side of the flow-through lake increased the area of outseepage. Recharge rate, lake depth and lake bed slope had relatively little effect on the spatial patterns of seepage rates and groundwater exchange with lakes.

Hippocampal Transcriptomic and Proteomic Alterations in the BTBR Mouse Model of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are complex heterogeneous neurodevelopmental disorders of an unclear etiology, and no cure currently exists. Prior studies have demonstrated that the black and tan, brachyury (BTBR) T+ Itpr3tf/J mouse strain displays a behavioral phenotype with ASD-like features. BTBR T+ Itpr3tf/J mice (referred to simply as BTBR) display deficits in social functioning, lack of communication ability, and engagement in stereotyped behavior. Despite extensive behavioral phenotypic characterization, little is known about the genes and proteins responsible for the presentation of the ASD-like phenotype in the BTBR mouse model. In this study, we employed bioinformatics techniques to gain a wide-scale understanding of the transcriptomic and proteomic changes associated with the ASD-like phenotype in BTBR mice. We found a number of genes and proteins to be significantly altered in BTBR mice compared to C57BL/6J (B6) control mice controls such as BDNF, Shank3, and ERK1, which are highly relevant to prior investigations of ASD. Furthermore, we identified distinct functional pathways altered in BTBR mice compared to B6 controls that have been previously shown to be altered in both mouse models of ASD, some human clinical populations, and have been suggested as a possible etiological mechanism of ASD, including "axon guidance" and "regulation of actin cytoskeleton." In addition, our wide-scale bioinformatics approach also discovered several previously unidentified genes and proteins associated with the ASD phenotype in BTBR mice, such as Caskin1, suggesting that bioinformatics could be an avenue by which novel therapeutic targets for ASD are uncovered. As a result, we believe that informed use of synergistic bioinformatics applications represents an invaluable tool for elucidating the etiology of complex disorders like ASD.

A small molecule activator of p300/CBP histone acetyltransferase promotes survival and neurite growth in a cellular model of Parkinson’s disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterised by motor and non-motor symptoms, resulting from the degeneration of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons and peripheral autonomic neurons. Given the limited success of neurotrophic factors in clinical trials, there is a need to identify new small molecule drugs and drug targets to develop novel therapeutic strategies to protect all neurons that degenerate in PD. Epigenetic dysregulation has been implicated in neurodegenerative disorders, while targeting histone acetylation is a promising therapeutic avenue for PD. We and others have demonstrated that histone deacetylase inhibitors have neurotrophic effects in experimental models of PD. Activators of histone acetyltransferases (HAT) provide an alternative approach for the selective activation of gene expression, however little is known about the potential of HAT activators as drug therapies for PD. To explore this potential, the present study investigated the neurotrophic effects of CTPB (N-(4-chloro-3-trifluoromethyl-phenyl)-2-ethoxy-6-pentadecyl-benzamide), which is a potent small molecule activator of the histone acetyltransferase p300/CBP, in the SH-SY5Y neuronal cell line. We report that CTPB promoted the survival and neurite growth of the SH-SY5Y cells, and also protected these cells from cell death induced by the neurotoxin 6-hydroxydopamine. This study is the first to investigate the phenotypic effects of the HAT activator CTPB, and to demonstrate that p300/CBP HAT activation has neurotrophic effects in a cellular model of PD.

Breeding success and traits of equal and unequal pairs of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) on Phillip Island during 2001-2008

According to life-history theory, individuals optimize their decisions in order to maximize their fitness. This raises a conflict between parents, which need to cooperate to ensure the propagation of their genes but at the same time need to minimize the associated costs. Trading-off between benefits and costs of a reproduction is one of the major forces driving demographic trends and has shaped several different parental care strategies. Using little penguins (Eudyptula minor) as a model, we investigated whether individuals of a pair provide equal parental effort when raising offspring and whether their behavior was consistent over 8 years of contrasting resource availability. Using an automated identification system, we found that 72% of little penguin pairs exhibited unforced (i.e., that did not result from desertion of 1 parent) unequal partnership through the postguard stage. This proportion was lower in favorable years. Although being an equal pair appeared to be a better strategy, it was nonetheless the least often observed. Individuals that contributed less than their partner were not less experienced (measured by age), and gender did not explain differences between partners. Furthermore, birds that contributed little or that contributed a lot tended to be consistent in their level of contribution across years. We suggest that unequal effort during breeding may reflect differences in individual quality, and we encourage future studies on parental care to consider this consistent low and high contributor behavior when investigating differences in pair investment into its offspring. Key words: attendance patterns, individual quality, meal size, parental care, reproductive costs, seabirds.