Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods: We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results: Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion: The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

What determines the use of capital budgeting methods? : Evidence from Swedish listed companies

Purpose: This paper aims to extend and contribute to prior research on the association between company characteristics and choice of capital budgeting methods (CBMs). Design/methodology/approach: A multivariate regression analysis on questionnaire data from 2005 and 2008 is used to study which factors determine the choice of CBMs in Swedish listed companies. Findings: Our results supported hypotheses that Swedish listed companies have become more sophisticated over the years (or at least less unsophisticated) which indicates a closing of the theory-practice gap; that companies with greater leverage used payback more often; and that companies with stricter debt targets and less management ownership employed accounting rate of return more frequent. Moreover, larger companies used CBMs more often. Originality/value: The paper contributes to prior research within this field by being the first Swedish study to examine the association between use of CBMs and as many as twelve independent variables, including changes over time, by using multivariate regression analysis. The results are compared to a US and a continental European study.

A Simplified Clausal Resolution Procedure for Propositional Linear-Time Temporal Logic

The clausal resolution method for propositional linear-time temporal logic is well known and provides the basis for a number of temporal provers. The method is based on an intuitive clausal form, called SNF, comprising three main clause types and a small number of resolution rules. In this paper, we show how the normal form can be radically simplified, and consequently, how a simplified clausal resolutioin method can be defined for this impoprtant variety of logics.

Using Spatiotemporal Methods to Fill Gaps In Energy Usage Interval Data

Researchers analyzing spatiotemporal or panel data, which varies both in location and over time, often find that their data has holes or gaps. This thesis explores alternative methods for filling those gaps and also suggests a set of techniques for evaluating those gap-filling methods to determine which works best.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for brazilian industrial production

Este trabalho avalia as previsões de três métodos não lineares — Markov Switching Autoregressive Model, Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model e Autometrics com Dummy Saturation — para a produção industrial mensal brasileira e testa se elas são mais precisas que aquelas de preditores naive, como o modelo autorregressivo de ordem p e o mecanismo de double differencing. Os resultados mostram que a saturação com dummies de degrau e o Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model podem ser superiores ao mecanismo de double differencing, mas o modelo linear autoregressivo é mais preciso que todos os outros métodos analisados.

Forecast comparison with nonlinear methods for Brazilian industrial production

This work assesses the forecasts of three nonlinear methods | Markov Switching Autoregressive Model, Logistic Smooth Transition Auto-regressive Model, and Auto-metrics with Dummy Saturation | for the Brazilian monthly industrial production and tests if they are more accurate than those of naive predictors such as the autoregressive model of order p and the double di erencing device. The results show that the step dummy saturation and the logistic smooth transition autoregressive can be superior to the double di erencing device, but the linear autoregressive model is more accurate than all the other methods analyzed.

Lifestyle factors, direct and indirect costs for a Brazilian airline company

OBJECTIVE: To analyze lifestyle risk factors related to direct healthcare costs and the indirect costs due to sick leave among workers of an airline company in Brazil. METHODS: In this longitudinal 12-month study of 2,201 employees of a Brazilian airline company, the costs of sick leave and healthcare were the primary outcomes of interest. Information on the independent variables, such as gender, age, educational level, type of work, stress, and lifestyle-related factors (body mass index, physical activity, and smoking), was collected using a questionnaire on enrolment in the study. Data on sick leave days were available from the company register, and data on healthcare costs were obtained from insurance records. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to investigate the association between direct and indirect healthcare costs with sociodemographic, work, and lifestyle-related factors. RESULTS: Over the 12-month study period, the average direct healthcare expenditure per worker was US$505.00 and the average indirect cost because of sick leave was US$249.00 per worker. Direct costs were more than twice the indirect costs and both were higher in women. Body mass index was a determinant of direct costs and smoking was a determinant of indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and smoking among workers in a Brazilian airline company were associated with increased health costs. Therefore, promoting a healthy diet, physical activity, and anti-tobacco campaigns are important targets for health promotion in this study population.

Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Comparison of two extraction methods for evaluation of volatile constituents patterns in commercial whiskeys: Elucidation of the main odour-active compounds

An analytical procedure based on manual dynamic headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) method and the conventional extraction method by liquid–liquid extraction (LLE), were compared for their effectiveness in the extraction and quantification of volatile compounds from commercial whiskey samples. Seven extraction solvents covering a wide range of polarities and two SPME fibres coatings, has been evaluated. The highest amounts extracted, were achieved using dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) by LLE method (LLECH2Cl2)(LLECH2Cl2) and using a CAR/PDMS fibre (SPMECAR/PDMS) in HS-SPME. Each method was used to determine the responses of 25 analytes from whiskeys and calibration standards, in order to provide sensitivity comparisons between the two methods. Calibration curves were established in a synthetic whiskey and linear correlation coefficient (r ) were greater than 0.9929 for LLECH2Cl2LLECH2Cl2 and 0.9935 for SPMECAR/PDMS, for all target compounds. Recoveries greater than 80% were achieved. For most compounds, precision (expressed by relative standard deviation, R.S.D.) are very good, with R.S.D. values lower than 14.78% for HS-SPME method and than 19.42% for LLE method. The detection limits ranged from 0.13 to 19.03 μg L−1 for SPME procedure and from 0.50 to 12.48 μg L−1 for LLE. A tentative study to estimate the contribution of a specific compound to the aroma of a whiskey, on the basis of their odour activity values (OAV) was made. Ethyl octanoate followed by isoamyl acetate and isobutyl alcohol, were found the most potent odour-active compounds.

Multivariate analysis for the classification and differentiation of Madeira wines according to main grape varieties

In order to differentiate and characterize Madeira wines according to main grape varieties, the volatile composition (higher alcohols, fatty acids, ethyl esters and carbonyl compounds) was determined for 36 monovarietal Madeira wine samples elaborated from Boal, Malvazia, Sercial and Verdelho white grape varieties. The study was carried out by headspace solid-phase microextraction technique (HS-SPME), in dynamic mode, coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Corrected peak area data for 42 analytes from the above mentioned chemical groups was used for statistical purposes. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in order to determine the main sources of variability present in the data sets and to establish the relation between samples (objects) and volatile compounds (variables). The data obtained by GC–MS shows that the most important contributions to the differentiation of Boal wines are benzyl alcohol and (E)-hex-3-en-1-ol. Ethyl octadecanoate, (Z)-hex-3-en-1-ol and benzoic acid are the major contributions in Malvazia wines and 2-methylpropan-1-ol is associated to Sercial wines. Verdelho wines are most correlated with 5-(ethoxymethyl)-furfural, nonanone and cis-9-ethyldecenoate. A 96.4% of prediction ability was obtained by the application of stepwise linear discriminant analysis (SLDA) using the 19 variables that maximise the variance of the initial data set.

Investigation of urinary volatile organic metabolites as potential cancer biomarkers by solid-phase microextraction in combination with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive diagnostic strategies aimed at identifying biomarkers of cancer are of great interest for early cancer detection. Urine is potentially a rich source of volatile organic metabolites (VOMs) that can be used as potential cancer biomarkers. Our aim was to develop a generally reliable, rapid, sensitive, and robust analytical method for screening large numbers of urine samples, resulting in a broad spectrum of native VOMs, as a tool to evaluate the potential of these metabolites in the early diagnosis of cancer. METHODS: To investigate urinary volatile metabolites as potential cancer biomarkers, urine samples from 33 cancer patients (oncological group: 14 leukaemia, 12 colorectal and 7 lymphoma) and 21 healthy (control group, cancer-free) individuals were qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. Dynamic solid-phase microextraction in headspace mode (dHS-SPME) using a carboxenpolydimethylsiloxane (CAR/PDMS) sorbent in combination with GC-qMS-based metabolomics was applied to isolate and identify the volatile metabolites. This method provides a potential non-invasive method for early cancer diagnosis as a first approach. To fulfil this objective, three important dHS-SPME experimental parameters that influence extraction efficiency (fibre coating, extraction time and temperature of sampling) were optimised using a univariate optimisation design. The highest extraction efficiency was obtained when sampling was performed at 501C for 60min using samples with high ionic strengths (17% sodium chloride, wv 1) and under agitation. RESULTS: A total of 82 volatile metabolites belonging to distinct chemical classes were identified in the control and oncological groups. Benzene derivatives, terpenoids and phenols were the most common classes for the oncological group, whereas ketones and sulphur compounds were the main classes that were isolated from the urine headspace of healthy subjects. The results demonstrate that compound concentrations were dramatically different between cancer patients and healthy volunteers. The positive rates of 16 patients among the 82 identified were found to be statistically different (Po0.05). A significant increase in the peak area of 2-methyl3-phenyl-2-propenal, p-cymene, anisole, 4-methyl-phenol and 1,2-dihydro-1,1,6-trimethyl-naphthalene in cancer patients was observed. On average, statistically significant lower abundances of dimethyl disulphide were found in cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: Gas chromatographic peak areas were submitted to multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and supervised linear discriminant analysis) to visualise clusters within cases and to detect the volatile metabolites that are able to differentiate cancer patients from healthy individuals. Very good discrimination within cancer groups and between cancer and control groups was achieved.