Desarrollo de un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales basado en las Directrices del Comité de Basilea

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal diseñar un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales (MGRO) según las Directrices de los Acuerdos II y III del Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (CSBB-BPI). Se considera importante realizar un estudio sobre este tema dado que son los riesgos operacionales (OpR) los responsables en gran medida de las últimas crisis financieras mundiales y por la dificultad para detectarlos en las organizaciones. Se ha planteado un modelo de gestión subdividido en dos vías de influencias. La primera acoge el paradigma holístico en el que se considera que hay múltiples maneras de percibir un proceso cíclico, así como las herramientas para observar, conocer y entender el objeto o sujeto percibido. La segunda vía la representa el paradigma totalizante, en el que se obtienen datos tanto cualitativos como cuantitativos, los cuales son complementarios entre si. Por otra parte, este trabajo plantea el diseño de un programa informático de OpR Cualitativo, que ha sido diseñado para determinar la raíz de los riesgos en las organizaciones y su Valor en Riesgo Operacional (OpVaR) basado en el método del indicador básico. Aplicando el ciclo holístico al caso de estudio, se obtuvo el siguiente diseño de investigación: no experimental, univariable, transversal descriptiva, contemporánea, retrospectiva, de fuente mixta, cualitativa (fenomenológica y etnográfica) y cuantitativa (descriptiva y analítica). La toma de decisiones y recolección de información se realizó en dos fases en la unidad de estudio. En la primera se tomó en cuenta la totalidad de la empresa Corpoelec-EDELCA, en la que se presentó un universo estadístico de 4271 personas, una población de 2390 personas y una unidad de muestreo de 87 personas. Se repitió el proceso en una segunda fase, para la Central Hidroeléctrica Simón Bolívar, y se determinó un segundo universo estadístico de 300 trabajadores, una población de 191 personas y una muestra de 58 profesionales. Como fuentes de recolección de información se utilizaron fuentes primarias y secundarias. Para recabar la información primaria se realizaron observaciones directas, dos encuestas para detectar las áreas y procesos con mayor nivel de riesgos y se diseñó un cuestionario combinado con otra encuesta (ad hoc) para establecer las estimaciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas operacionales. La información de fuentes secundarias se extrajo de las bases de datos de Corpoelec-EDELCA, de la IEA, del Banco Mundial, del CSBB-BPI, de la UPM y de la UC at Berkeley, entre otras. Se establecieron las distribuciones de frecuencia y de severidad de pérdidas operacionales como las variables independientes y el OpVaR como la variable dependiente. No se realizó ningún tipo de seguimiento o control a las variables bajo análisis, ya que se consideraron estas para un instante especifico y solo se determinan con la finalidad de establecer la existencia y valoración puntual de los OpR en la unidad de estudio. El análisis cualitativo planteado en el MGRO, permitió detectar que en la unidad de investigación, el 67% de los OpR detectados provienen de dos fuentes principales: procesos (32%) y eventos externos (35%). Adicionalmente, la validación del MGRO en Corpoelec-EDELCA, permitió detectar que el 63% de los OpR en la organización provienen de tres categorías principales, siendo los fraudes externos los presentes con mayor regularidad y severidad de pérdidas en la organización. La exposición al riesgo se determinó fundamentándose en la adaptación del concepto de OpVaR que generalmente se utiliza para series temporales y que en el caso de estudio presenta la primicia de aplicarlo a datos cualitativos transformados con la escala Likert. La posibilidad de utilizar distribuciones de probabilidad típicas para datos cuantitativos en distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas con datos de origen cualitativo fueron analizadas. Para el 64% de los OpR estudiados se obtuvo que la frecuencia tiene un comportamiento semejante al de la distribución de probabilidad de Poisson y en un 55% de los casos para la severidad de pérdidas se obtuvo a las log-normal como las distribuciones de probabilidad más comunes, con lo que se concluyó que los enfoques sugeridos por el BCBS-BIS para series de tiempo son aplicables a los datos cualitativos. Obtenidas las distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas, se convolucionaron estas implementando el método de Montecarlo, con lo que se obtuvieron los enfoques de distribuciones de pérdidas (LDA) para cada uno de los OpR. El OpVaR se dedujo como lo sugiere el CSBB-BPI del percentil 99,9 o 99% de cada una de las LDA, obteniéndose que los OpR presentan un comportamiento similar al sistema financiero, resultando como los de mayor peligrosidad los que se ubican con baja frecuencia y alto impacto, por su dificultad para ser detectados y monitoreados. Finalmente, se considera que el MGRO permitirá a los agentes del mercado y sus grupos de interés conocer con efectividad, fiabilidad y eficiencia el status de sus entidades, lo que reducirá la incertidumbre de sus inversiones y les permitirá establecer una nueva cultura de gestión en sus organizaciones. ABSTRACT This research has as main objective the design of a Model for Operational Risk Management (MORM) according to the guidelines of Accords II and III of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International Settlements (BCBS- BIS). It is considered important to conduct a study on this issue since operational risks (OpR) are largely responsible for the recent world financial crisis and due to the difficulty in detecting them in organizations. A management model has been designed which is divided into two way of influences. The first supports the holistic paradigm in which it is considered that there are multiple ways of perceiving a cyclical process and contains the tools to observe, know and understand the subject or object perceived. The second way is the totalizing paradigm, in which both qualitative and quantitative data are obtained, which are complementary to each other. Moreover, this paper presents the design of qualitative OpR software which is designed to determine the root of risks in organizations and their Operational Value at Risk (OpVaR) based on the basic indicator approach. Applying the holistic cycle to the case study, the following research design was obtained: non- experimental, univariate, descriptive cross-sectional, contemporary, retrospective, mixed-source, qualitative (phenomenological and ethnographic) and quantitative (descriptive and analytical). Decision making and data collection was conducted in two phases in the study unit. The first took into account the totality of the Corpoelec-EDELCA company, which presented a statistical universe of 4271 individuals, a population of 2390 individuals and a sampling unit of 87 individuals. The process was repeated in a second phase to the Simon Bolivar Hydroelectric Power Plant, and a second statistical universe of 300 workers, a population of 191 people and a sample of 58 professionals was determined. As sources of information gathering primary and secondary sources were used. To obtain the primary information direct observations were conducted and two surveys to identify the areas and processes with higher risks were designed. A questionnaire was combined with an ad hoc survey to establish estimates of frequency and severity of operational losses was also considered. The secondary information was extracted from the databases of Corpoelec-EDELCA, IEA, the World Bank, the BCBS-BIS, UPM and UC at Berkeley, among others. The operational loss frequency distributions and the operational loss severity distributions were established as the independent variables and OpVaR as the dependent variable. No monitoring or control of the variables under analysis was performed, as these were considered for a specific time and are determined only for the purpose of establishing the existence and timely assessment of the OpR in the study unit. Qualitative analysis raised in the MORM made it possible to detect that in the research unit, 67% of detected OpR come from two main sources: external processes (32%) and external events (35%). Additionally, validation of the MORM in Corpoelec-EDELCA, enabled to estimate that 63% of OpR in the organization come from three main categories, with external fraud being present more regularly and greater severity of losses in the organization. Risk exposure is determined basing on adapting the concept of OpVaR generally used for time series and in the case study it presents the advantage of applying it to qualitative data transformed with the Likert scale. The possibility of using typical probability distributions for quantitative data in loss frequency and loss severity distributions with data of qualitative origin were analyzed. For the 64% of OpR studied it was found that the frequency has a similar behavior to that of the Poisson probability distribution and 55% of the cases for loss severity it was found that the log-normal were the most common probability distributions. It was concluded that the approach suggested by the BCBS-BIS for time series can be applied to qualitative data. Once obtained the distributions of loss frequency and severity have been obtained they were subjected to convolution implementing the Monte Carlo method. Thus the loss distribution approaches (LDA) were obtained for each of the OpR. The OpVaR was derived as suggested by the BCBS-BIS 99.9 percentile or 99% of each of the LDA. It was determined that the OpR exhibits a similar behavior to the financial system, being the most dangerous those with low frequency and high impact for their difficulty in being detected and monitored. Finally, it is considered that the MORM will allows market players and their stakeholders to know with effectiveness, efficiency and reliability the status of their entities, which will reduce the uncertainty of their investments and enable them to establish a new management culture in their organizations.

Measuring science: An exploration

This paper examines the available United States data on academic research and development (R&D) expenditures and the number of papers published and the number of citations to these papers as possible measures of “output” of this enterprise. We look at these numbers for science and engineering as a whole, for five selected major fields, and at the individual university field level. The published data in Science and Engineering Indicators imply sharply diminishing returns to academic R&D using published papers as an “output” measure. These data are quite problematic. Using a newer set of data on papers and citations, based on an “expanding” set of journals and the newly released Bureau of Economic Analysis R&D deflators, changes the picture drastically, eliminating the appearance of diminishing returns but raising the question of why the input prices of academic R&D are rising so much faster than either the gross domestic product deflator or the implicit R&D deflator in industry. A production function analysis of such data at the individual field level follows. It indicates significant diminishing returns to “own” R&D, with the R&D coefficients hovering around 0.5 for estimates with paper numbers as the dependent variable and around 0.6 if total citations are used as the dependent variable. When we substitute scientists and engineers in place of R&D as the right-hand side variables, the coefficient on papers rises from 0.5 to 0.8, and the coefficient on citations rises from 0.6 to 0.9, indicating systematic measurement problems with R&D as the sole input into the production of scientific output. But allowing for individual university field effects drives these numbers down significantly below unity. Because in the aggregate both paper numbers and citations are growing as fast or faster than R&D, this finding can be interpreted as leaving a major, yet unmeasured, role for the contribution of spillovers from other fields, other universities, and other countries.

Habilidades funcionais de autocuidado, mobilidade e função social em crianças com fissura labiopalatina e Espectro Óculo-Aurículo-Vertebral (EOAV)

As anomalias craniofaciais ocasionam comprometimentos estéticos e funcionais com grande impacto na saúde e na integração social da criança, com interferência no desenvolvimento global e social. Das anomalias craniofaciais este estudo abordou as Fissuras Labiopalatinas (FLP) e o Espectro Óculo Aurículo Vertebral (EOAV). As FLP constituem malformações resultantes de falta do fechamento completo dos tecidos que compõe o lábio e o palato. O EOAV, também conhecido como Síndrome de Goldenhar, é uma anomalia congênita de etiologia desconhecida, com manifestação genética variável e de causa bastante heterogênea. Conhecer as habilidades funcionais e o impacto destas no desenvolvimento global de crianças com EOAV e FLP pode otimizar o desenvolvimento de programas de prevenção e intervenção para promover a saúde e a integração social destes indivíduos. Este estudo foi delineado com objetivo de verificar e comparar o desempenho em habilidades funcionais quanto ao desempenho nas áreas de autocuidado, mobilidade, função social e nível de independência entre crianças com EOAV, crianças com FLP e um grupo comparativo, de crianças sem anomalias. O modelo de pesquisa foi observacional descritivo transversal com uma casuística de 39 pais/responsáveis de crianças na faixa etária entre três anos e sete anos e seis meses, de ambos os gêneros. Foram convidados para participar pais/responsáveis de crianças em tratamento no Hospital de Reabilitação de Anomalias Craniofaciais da Universidade e São Paulo (HRAC-USP) os quais foram divididos em três grupos: dois experimentais e um grupo comparativo. O instrumento para coleta dos dados das habilidades funcionais foi o Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI), em sua versão adaptada para o português. A avaliação é realizada por meio de entrevista com o cuidador, o qual deve saber informar sobre o desempenho da criança em atividades e tarefas típicas da rotina diária. Os dados foram apresentados por análise descritiva com medidas de tendência central (média aritmética), dispersão (desvio-padrão) e distribuição de frequência, nas variáveis: idades, gênero e nível socioeconômico da família e caracterização da casuística. Para as análises das pontuações bruta e normativa do questionário PEDI no que se refere às habilidades funcionais e a assistência do cuidador nas três áreas de função autocuidado, mobilidade e função social, foi utilizado o teste de variância One Way, e para o teste de normalidade foi utilizado Shapiro Wilk para variável dependente. A análise comparativa foi realizada pelo teste de Kruskal-Wallis, adotando-se o valor de significância de p< 0,05. Os resultados deste estudo na análise comparativa nas habilidades funcionais na mobilidade, houve diferença estatisticamente significante na comparação entre os grupos GC vs GEEOAV, no escore bruto, e entre os grupos GC vs GEEOAV e GC vs GEFLP, no escore normativo.Na assistência do cuidador no autocuidado, houve diferença estatisticamente significante na comparação entre os grupos GC vs GEEOAV, no escore normativo. Na assistência do cuidador na mobilidade, houve diferença estatisticamente significante na comparação entre os grupos GC vs GEEOAV nos escores bruto e normativo.Na assistência do cuidador na função social houve diferença estatisticamente significante na comparação entre os grupos GC vs GEFLP.

Valor de marca-país: uma investigação empírica em diferentes modelos operacionais e relações com imagem de país e percepção de cultura

Atualmente, os valores intangíveis são cada vez mais importantes no processo gerencial de empresas e governos, implicando a necessidade de informações mais precisas. Dentre os ativos intangíveis mais importantes encontram-se as marcas. É por meio das marcas que os consumidores escolhem e memorizam suas compras, e assim destinam seu dinheiro para algo que possa solucionar problemas em suas vidas. Marcas são formas de empresas e países conseguirem se diferenciar no mercado competitivo globalizado, e estas últimas são denominadas marca-país. A marca-país é fonte de conhecimento e associações no mercado, e torna o país mais ou menos atraente para os estrangeiros. Para se medir o valor de uma marca-país (country brand equity) utilizamse métodos específicos. Essa métrica perceptual é uma construção de valores baseados na marca-país, como conhecimento, associações, imagem, qualidade percebida e lealdade. Este trabalho visa compor um modelo de mensuração de country brand equity aplicável à realidade brasileira. Para tanto foram apresentados diversos modelos de avaliação de marcas e marca-país, por serem complementares, e testados empiricamente. Os dois principais modelos utilizados neste trabalho foram o modelo de valor de marca de Yoo, Donthu e Lee (2000), e o modelo de valor de marca-país de Pappu e Quester (2010). Como o construto de valor de marca-país é derivado de dimensões formativas que o compõem, foram somadas nessa equação as dimensões de imagem baseada na personalidade (AAKER, 1997) e percepção de cultura (NEWMAN; NOLLEN, 1996; HOFSTEDE; BOND, 1984). Todas as variáveis e composições de dimensões foram avaliadas quanto à sua confiabilidade, linearidade, normalidade, heterocedasticidade, multicolinearidade, correlações, formação de fatores e, por fim, avaliadas em regressões e modelos de equações estruturais. Foram criados dezesseis (16) modelos iniciais, nos quais se avaliou o poder de explicação dos construtos com a variável dependente proposta por Zeugner-Roth, Diamantopoulos e Montesinos (2008). Verificou-se pouca variabilidade entre os modelos. Em seguida, foram elaborados mais oito (8) modelos com a proxy de valor de marca-país pela reputação de marca-país, proposta por Kang e Yang (2010), na qual se pôde observar que os modelos com maior número de dimensões se mostraram melhores para explicar a variável dependente. Além disso, verificou-se a importância das dimensões de imagem e percepção de cultura nesses construtos. Por fim, esta tese apresenta modelos mais consistentes de avaliação de marca-país.

Tiempo de desplazamiento al trabajo y desajuste educativo en el mercado de trabajo español

En este trabajo se analiza cómo el tiempo de trayecto y las características de los mercados laborales locales influyen en el desajuste puesto de trabajo- nivel educativo del individuo, basado en la hipótesis de que los individuos que tienen un mayor tiempo de trayecto al trabajo y mejores condiciones en mercado laboral se asocian a una menor incidencia de la sobreeducación. La sobreeducación afecta a 17 % de los trabajadores en España, y se eleva al 22,4 % para los trabajadores menores de 35 años. El análisis se basa en los datos individuales de los trabajadores españoles que se refiere al período inicial de la crisis económica mundial (2007-2010). La variable dependiente, desajuste educativo-puesto se mide mediante el método subjetivo, basado en las respuestas del individuo a la pregunta de cómo ajusta su nivel de educación a las necesidades del trabajo que actualmente ocupan. La variable de interés son: (a) el tiempo de trayecto, es decir, el tiempo que tarda el individuo en llegar a su trabajo, y (b) dos variables que tienen en cuenta de las condiciones del mercado local: la tasa regional de desempleo (esta variable se refieren a la división territorial de España a nivel NUTS 2 y desglose por sexo y nivel de educación de cada Comunidad Autónoma sobre la base de las cifras medias anuales de la Encuesta de Población Activa española (EPA) para el período 2007-2010) y el tamaño del municipio. Se incluyen las variables de control habituales relativas al puesto de trabajo y variables dummy de los años de la muestra. Los resultados sugieren que las difíciles condiciones de trabajo regionales en términos de altas tasas de desempleo pueden actuar contra el efecto hipotético de la movilidad en la reducción del desajuste educativo, por lo tanto, se obtiene a una conclusión opuesta a la planteada en algunos trabajos anteriores.

Comparative regional perspectives: the Bologna process and higher education attainment. Jean Monnet/Robert Schumann Paper Series Vol 13 No. 11, August 2013

Since 1999, countries have voluntarily chosen to reform their higher education systems to join the European Higher Education Area. This paper compares Bologna Process implementation across four regions within the European Union. While there are 47 countries participating in the Bologna Process, this paper uses statistical analysis to consider 25 of the 28 EU Member States. The time period of analysis is 2000-2011, prior to Croatia’s accession to the EU on 1 July 2013. Across Europe there are inter-regional differences in how the Bologna Process has been implemented and in the political economy contexts that influence higher education reform for policy convergence. There are three explanatory variables in the political economy context: 1. competitive economic pressures and globalization 2. domestic politics at the national level 3. leadership from the supranational European Union that socially constructs regional norms Tertiary education attainment is the dependent variable of interest in this research. The objective of 40%, for 30-34 year olds, is Europe 2020 benchmark target. There are additional higher education reform criteria encompassed in the Bologna Process. These criteria concern Credit and Degree Structure, Quality Assurance, and Recognition of academic degrees among countries in the EHEA. This tertiary education attainment variable, which is of interest in this paper, does not capture the entire implementation process. Nevertheless, it is a measure of one important indicator of success in providing higher education access to populations within the context of democratic governance. This research finds that statistically GDP Per Capita is the most significant variable in relationship to tertiary education attainment across four regional areas in the European Union.

A Spatial Analysis of Agricultural Land Prices in Bavaria. Factor Markets Working Document No. 50, June 2013

This paper empirically analyses a dataset of more than 7,300 agricultural land sales transactions from 2001 and 2007 to identify the factors influencing agricultural land prices in Bavaria. We use a general spatial model, which combines a spatial lag and a spatial error model, and in addition account for endogeneity introduced by the spatially lagged dependent variable as well as other explanatory variables. Our findings confirm the strong influence of agricultural factors such as land productivity, of variables describing the regional land market structure, and of non-agricultural factors such as urban pressure on agricultural land prices. Moreover, the involvement of public authorities as a seller or buyer increases sales prices in Bavaria. We find a significant capitalisation of government support payments into agricultural land, where a decrease of direct payments by 1% would decrease land prices in 2007 and 2001 by 0.27% and 0.06%, respectively. In addition, we confirm strong spatial relationships in our dataset. Neglecting this leads to biased estimates, especially if aggregated data is used. We find that the price of a specific plot increases by 0.24% when sales prices in surrounding areas increase by 1%.

The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area. Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35/2015

This paper estimates the immediate impact of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programmes on sovereign bond spreads in the euro area between 2008 and 2015 using a country-by-country GARCH model. The baseline estimates are rigorously diagnosed for misspecification and subjected to a wide range of sensitivity tests. Among others, changes in the dependent variable, the independent variables and the number of (G)ARCH terms are tested. Moreover, the model is applied to subsamples and dynamic conditional correlations are analyzed to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on the contagion of spread movements. Generally, it is found that the asset purchase programmes triggered an reduction of sovereign bond spreads. More specifically, the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) had the most significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads across the euro area. The announcements related to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also yielded substantial spread compression in the periphery. In contrast to that, the most recent Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) announced in January 2015 and implemented since March 2015 had no significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads, except for Irish spreads. Hence, immediate effects seem to be dependent upon the size of the programme, the extent to which it targets distressed sovereigns and the way in which it is communicated.

Approaches and Strategy for Cancer Research and Surveillance Data: Integration, Information Pipeline, Data Models, and Informatics Opportunities

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-04

Illusions in advanced cancer: The effect of belief systems and attitudes on quality of life

Patients with advanced cancer frequently express positive attitudes and can be unduly optimistic about the potential benefits of treatment. In order to evaluate an illusory domain in the context of advanced cancer, we developed a scale of will to live and characterized the beliefs that patients held about the curability of their cancer, and how committed they were to using alternative treatments. A measure of quality of life was used as the dependent variable in order to assess the association between these attributes. After a preliminary exploration confirmed the presence of an illusory domain, these concepts were prospectively tested in 149 ambulant patients with advanced cancer who attended for palliative systemic treatment, radiation treatment or supportive care. The scale of global quality of life was reliable (Cronbach's alpha coefficient 0.72). The distribution of the scores of will to live was skewed, with no respondent scoring poorly, and the scale was reliable (Cronbach's alpha coefficient 0.82). The scale of belief in curability showed diverse beliefs. In some cases, there was a discrepancy between respondents' beliefs in curability and what they believed to be the report by their doctors. There was also an association between a committed use of alternative treatments and a belief in the curability of the cancer (p

Sagittal movement of the medial longitudinal arch is unchanged in plantar fasciitis

Background: Although a lowered medial longitudinal arch has been cited as a causal factor in plantar fasciitis, there is little experimental evidence linking arch motion to the pathogenesis of the condition. This study investigated the sagittal movement of the arch in subjects with and without plantar fasciitis during gait. Methods: Digital fluoroscopy was used to acquire dynamic lateral radiographs from 10 subjects with unilateral plantar fasciitis and 10 matched control subjects. The arch angle and the first metatarsophalangeal joint angle were digitized and their respective maxima recorded. Sagittal movement of the arch was defined as the angular change between heel strike and the maximum arch angle observed during the stance phase of gait. The-thickness of the proximal plantar fascia was determined from sagittal sonograms of both feet. ANOVA models were used to identify differences between limbs with respect to each dependent variable. Relationships between arch movement and fascial thickness were investigated using correlations. Results: There was no significant difference in either the movement or maximum arch angle between limbs. However, subjects with plantar fasciitis were found to have a larger metatarsophalangeal joint angle than controls (P < 0.05). Whereas the symptomatic and asymptomatic plantar fascia were thicker than those of control feet (P < 0.05), significant correlations were noted between fascial thickness and peak arch and metatarsophalangeal joint angles (P < 0.05) in the symptomatic limb only. Conclusions: Neither abnormal shape nor movement of the arch are associated with chronic plantar fasciitis. However, arch mechanics may influence the severity of plantar fasciitis once the condition is present. Digital flexion, in contrast, has a protective role in what might be a bilateral disease process.

The return to schooling: Estimates from a sample of young Australian twins

This study uses a sample of young Australian twins to examine whether the findings reported in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp.1157-73] and [Miller, P.W., Mulvey, C and Martin, N., (1994). 'What Do Twins Studies Tell Us About the Economic Returns to Education?: A Comparison of Australian and US Findings', Western Australian Labour Market Research Centre Discussion Paper 94/4] are robust to choice of sample and dependent variable. The economic return to schooling in Australia is between 5 and 7 percent when account is taken of genetic and family effects using either fixed-effects models or the selection effects model of Ashenfelter and Krueger. Given the similarity of the findings in this and in related studies, it would appear that the models applied by [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73] are robust. Moreover, viewing the OLS and IV estimators as lower and upper bounds in the manner of [Black, Dan A., Berger, Mark C., and Scott, Frank C., (2000). 'Bounding Parameter Estimates with Nonclassical Measurement Error', Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No.451, pp.739-748], it is shown that the bounds on the return to schooling in Australia are much tighter than in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73], and the return is bounded at a much lower level than in the US. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Capacity limits for the detection of changing visual features

Capacity limits in visual attention have traditionally been studied using static arrays of elements from which an observer must detect a target defined by a certain visual feature or combination of features. In the current study we use this visual search paradigm, with accuracy as the dependent variable, to examine attentional capacity limits for different visual features undergoing change over time. In Experiment 1, detectability of a single changing target was measured under conditions where the type of change (size, speed, colour), the magnitude of change, the set size and homogeneity of the unchanging distractors were all systematically varied. Psychometric function slopes were calculated for different experimental conditions and ‘change thresholds’extracted from these slopes were used in Experiment 2, in which multiple supra-threshold changes were made, simultaneously, either to a single or to two or three different stimulus elements. These experiments give an objective psychometric paradigm for measuring changes in visual features over time. Results favour object-based accounts of visual attention, and show consistent differences in the allocation of attentional capacity to different perceptual dimensions.

Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women

Many variables that are of interest in social science research are nominal variables with two or more categories, such as employment status, occupation, political preference, or self-reported health status. With longitudinal survey data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between different employment states or occupations (for example). In the statistical literature, models for analysing categorical dependent variables with repeated observations belong to the family of models known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The specific GLMM for a dependent variable with three or more categories is the multinomial logit random effects model. For these models, the marginal distribution of the response does not have a closed form solution and hence numerical integration must be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters. Techniques for implementing the numerical integration are available but are computationally intensive requiring a large amount of computer processing time that increases with the number of clusters (or individuals) in the data and are not always readily accessible to the practitioner in standard software. For the purposes of analysing categorical response data from a longitudinal social survey, there is clearly a need to evaluate the existing procedures for estimating multinomial logit random effects model in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computing time. The computational time will have significant implications as to the preferred approach by researchers. In this paper we evaluate statistical software procedures that utilise adaptive Gaussian quadrature and MCMC methods, with specific application to modeling employment status of women using a GLMM, over three waves of the HILDA survey.

Diagnosis of diabetes mellitus: case of different cutoff values: A data mining approach

Objective: An estimation of cut-off points for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) based on individual risk factors. Methods: A subset of the 1991 Oman National Diabetes Survey is used, including all patients with a 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl (278 subjects) and a control group of 286 subjects. All subjects previously diagnosed as diabetic and all subjects with missing data values were excluded. The data set was analyzed by use of the SPSS Clementine data mining system. Decision Tree Learners (C5 and CART) and a method for mining association rules (the GRI algorithm) are used. The fasting plasma glucose (FPG), age, sex, family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI) are input risk factors (independent variables), while diabetes onset (the 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl) is the output (dependent variable). All three techniques used were tested by use of crossvalidation (89.8%). Results: Rules produced for diabetes diagnosis are: A- GRI algorithm (1) FPG>=108.9 mg/dl, (2) FPG>=107.1 and age>39.5 years. B- CART decision trees: FPG >=110.7 mg/dl. C- The C5 decision tree learner: (1) FPG>=95.5 and 54, (2) FPG>=106 and 25.2 kg/m2. (3) FPG>=106 and =133 mg/dl. The three techniques produced rules which cover a significant number of cases (82%), with confidence between 74 and 100%. Conclusion: Our approach supports the suggestion that the present cut-off value of fasting plasma glucose (126 mg/dl) for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus needs revision, and the individual risk factors such as age and BMI should be considered in defining the new cut-off value.