A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Macroinvertebrate abundance in montane tropical streams of varying land-use, Ecuador

Despite the importance of tropical montane cloud forest streams, studies investigating aquatic communities in these regions are rare and knowledge on the driving factors of community structure is missing. The objectives of this study therefore were to understand how land-use influences habitat structure and macroinvertebrate communities in cloud forest streams of southern Ecuador. We evaluated these relationships in headwater streams with variable land cover, using multivariate statistics to identify relationships between key habitat variables and assemblage structure, and to resolve differences in composition among sites. Results show that shading intensity, substrate type and pH were the environmental parameters most closely related to variation in community composition observed among sites. In addition, macroinvertebrate density and partly diversity was lower in forested sites, possibly because the pH in forested streams lowered to almost 5 during spates. Standard bioindicator metrics were unable to detect the changes in assemblage structure between disturbed and forested streams. In general, our results indicate that tropical montane headwater streams are complex and heterogeneous ecosystems with low invertebrate densities. We also found that some amount of disturbance, i.e. patchy deforestation, can lead at least initially to an increase in macroinvertebrate taxa richness of these streams.

Assessing the legacy of the pine point mine: post-industrial land cover and land use

While mining is a major component of the northern Canadian economy, including the contemporary mixed economy of Aboriginal communities, it often leaves legacies of environmental and economic transformation that persist after closure. The legacies of historical mines in northern Canada challenge industry claims of sustainability. This thesis addresses how industrial mineral development and closure continue to affect local environments and economies after abandonment. The abandoned Pine Point mine in the Northwest Territories provides a case study for explaining the ongoing relationships among land cover, land use, and the post-industrial landscape. Drawing from landscape ecology and micropolitical ecology, I adopt an interdisciplinary approach to examine environmental and socioeconomic changes in the wake of industrial development and closure at Pine Point. The results show that passive reclamation is not sufficient for restoring ecological function in a subarctic environment. Land use, however, persists as land users adapt to the post-industrial landscape despite grave concern about its environmental condition. If mining is to be considered sustainable, decommissioning and reclamation must explicitly account for long-term environmental transformation as well as ongoing post-industrial land use, particularly in Aboriginal contexts.

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)

FEARLUS-G: A Semantic Grid Service for Land-Use Modelling,

Postprint

An Ontology for Experimentation with a Social Simulation of Land Use Change

Publisher PDF

Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model : a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Land Use and Water Quality Correlations in Miami-Dade, Florida

South Florida continues to become increasingly developed and urbanized. My exploratory study examines connections between land use and water quality. The main objectives of the project were to develop an understanding of how land use has affected water quality in Miami-Dade canals, and an economic optimization model to estimate the costs of best management practices necessary to improve water quality. Results indicate Miami-Dade County land use and water quality are correlated. Through statistical factor and cluster analysis, it is apparent that agricultural areas are associated with higher concentrations of nitrogen, while urban areas commonly have higher levels of phosphorous than agricultural areas. The economic optimization model shows that urban areas can improve water quality by lowering fertilizer inputs. Agricultural areas can also implement methods to improve water quality although it may be more expensive than urban areas. It is important to keep solutions in mind when looking towards future water quality improvements in South Florida.

Projections for Land Use Change in Brazil:2000-2050, links to files in ArcGIS shapefile format

This data set contains the inputs and the results of the REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre project (REDD-PAC) project (http://www.redd-pac.org), developed by a consortium of research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA, UNEP-WCMC), supported by Germany's International Climate Initiative. Taking a new land use map of Brazil for 2000 as input, the research team used the global economic model GLOBIOM to project land use changes in Brazil up to 2050. Model projections show that Brazil has the potential to balance its goals of protecting the environment and becoming a major global producer of food and biofuels. The model results were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).

Troubled Waters Ahead: An Evaluation of Shoreline Land Use Policies for Water Quality Protection in Renfrew County, Ontario

Increases in the rate and extent of lakeshore development along inland lakes in Ontario are adversely impacting water quality. Despite growing awareness, there is a lack of knowledge about the land use policies and tools in place to protect inland lakes in rural Ontario. This research evaluated official plans for water quality protection policies for inland lakes in the County of Renfrew, Ontario to address this gap. The findings suggest that municipalities implicitly link water quality to land use planning policy and fail to incorporate innovative methods to protect water quality.

Energizing the Oak Ridges Moraine? Analyzing the Policy Implications of Three Wind Energy Developments on the Oak Ridges Moraine and their Potential Impact on the Coordinated Land Use Planning Review through the Involvement of First Nations and Environmental Non-governmental Organizations

This research explores the policy implications of the approval of three wind energy projects on the Oak Ridges Moraine, and their impact on the Coordinated Land Use Planning Review process. Specifically, it focuses on the involvement of First Nations and environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs). This research was conducted through analyzing submissions to the Coordinated Land Use Planning Review, related legislation and policy, Environmental Review Tribunal hearing documents, and interviews with key informants. This research culminates in a number of recommendations to the Coordinated Review informed by the analysis.

Linking the ecosystem service approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management - a planning approach

Coastal zones with their natural and societal subsystems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social references and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decisionmaking on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multifunctional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.