Desempenho de dois sistemas distribuidores de sementes utilizados em semeadoras de milho

O tratamento de sementes de milho (Zea mays L.) com inseticidas altera a rugosidade da superfície das sementes, afetando o desempenho da semeadora, pela dificuldade de movimentá-las no depósito e também nos sistemas distribuidores, e a densidade de plantio. Determinou-se o efeito do tratamento com inseticidas ou grafite sobre o ângulo de repouso de sementes de milho, e avaliou-se o efeito da velocidade de deslocamento, do tratamento químico e com grafite das sementes, além da classificação por peneiras, no desempenho de dois sistemas distribuidores, de disco e de dedos prensores. Os testes foram realizados em uma bancada montada em laboratório com sementes classificadas em diferentes peneiras e submetidas a seis tratamentos, testadas em duas velocidades de deslocamento e em dois sistemas de distribuição de sementes. O delineamento utilizado foi em blocos casualizados, com três repetições. No sistema de dedos prensores, o uso do inseticida melhorou significativamente o desempenho da semeadora, ao contrário do verificado no sistema de disco. Com a adição de grafite, na dose de 4 g/kg de sementes, o desempenho voltou a ser o mesmo de antes do tratamento com a utilização de Semevin, e ligeiramente inferior com Furadan.

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy in head and neck cancer patients: indications, techniques, complications and results.

The aim of this study was to review our experience in percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) performed in patients with cancer of the upper aerodigestive tract. Descriptive retrospective study of 142 patients (115 males, 27 females), mean age 62.4 years (25-84 years), with head and neck or esophageal cancer, who underwent PEG tube insertion between January 2006 and December 2008. The studied parameters were indications, success rate, rate and type of complications, and their management. Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy was inserted before chemoradiation therapy in 80% and during or after cancer treatment in 20% of the patients. PEG placement was possible in 137 patients (96%). Major complications were observed in 9 (7%) and minor complications in 22 (17%) of the 137 patients. Seven of the 9 patients with a major complication needed revision surgery. The mortality directly related to the procedure was 0.7%. Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube insertion has a high success rate. In patients with upper aerodigestive tract cancer, PEG should be the first choice for enteral nutrition when sufficient oral intake is not possible. Although apparently easy, the procedure may occasionally lead to severe complications. Therefore, a strict technique and knowledge of clinical signs of possible complications are mandatory.

Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting

We explore the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. We document that a country's equity market valuehas significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity priceindex for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to usingseveral control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, our results indicatethat exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets,especially at very short horizons.

Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.