935 resultados para International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Mestrado em Contabilidade Analítica e Financeira
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Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão do Turismo Internacional, 3 de Dezembro de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.
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Research on cluster analysis for categorical data continues to develop, new clustering algorithms being proposed. However, in this context, the determination of the number of clusters is rarely addressed. We propose a new approach in which clustering and the estimation of the number of clusters is done simultaneously for categorical data. We assume that the data originate from a finite mixture of multinomial distributions and use a minimum message length criterion (MML) to select the number of clusters (Wallace and Bolton, 1986). For this purpose, we implement an EM-type algorithm (Silvestre et al., 2008) based on the (Figueiredo and Jain, 2002) approach. The novelty of the approach rests on the integration of the model estimation and selection of the number of clusters in a single algorithm, rather than selecting this number based on a set of pre-estimated candidate models. The performance of our approach is compared with the use of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) (Schwarz, 1978) and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL) (Biernacki et al., 2000) using synthetic data. The obtained results illustrate the capacity of the proposed algorithm to attain the true number of cluster while outperforming BIC and ICL since it is faster, which is especially relevant when dealing with large data sets.
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Paracetamol is among the most worldwide consumed pharmaceuticals. Although its occurrence in the environment is well documented, data about the presence of its metabolites and transformation products is very scarce. The present work describes the development of an analytical method for the simultaneous determination of paracetamol, its principal metabolite (paracetamol-glucuronide) and its main transformation product (p-aminophenol) based on solid phase extraction (SPE) and high performance liquid chromatography coupled to diode array detection (HPLC-DAD). The method was applied to analysis of river waters, showing to be suitable to be used in routine analysis. Different SPE sorbents were compared and the use of two Oasis WAX cartridges in tandem proved to be the most adequate approach for sample clean up and pre-concentration. Under optimized conditions, limits of detection in the range 40–67 ng/L were obtained, as well as mean recoveries between 60 and 110% with relative standard deviations (RSD) below 6%. Finally, the developed SPE-HPLC/DAD method was successfully applied to the analysis of the selected compounds in samples from seven rivers located in the north of Portugal. Nevertheless all the compounds were detected, it was the first time that paracetamol-glucuronide was found in river water at concentrations up to 3.57 μg/L.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze cervical and breast cancer mortality in Brazil according to socioeconomic and welfare indicators. METHODS Data on breast and cervical cancer mortality covering a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed. The data were obtained from the National Mortality Database, population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics database, and socioeconomic and welfare information from the Institute of Applied Economic Research. Moving averages were calculated, disaggregated by capital city and municipality. The annual percent change in mortality rates was estimated by segmented linear regression using the joinpoint method. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were conducted between average mortality rate at the end of the three-year period and selected indicators in the state capital and each Brazilian state. RESULTS There was a decline in cervical cancer mortality rates throughout the period studied, except in municipalities outside of the capitals in the North and Northeast. There was a decrease in breast cancer mortality in the capitals from the end of the 1990s onwards. Favorable socioeconomic indicators were inversely correlated with cervical cancer mortality. A strong direct correlation was found with favorable indicators and an inverse correlation with fertility rate and breast cancer mortality in inner cities. CONCLUSIONS There is an ongoing dynamic process of increased risk of cervical and breast cancer and attenuation of mortality because of increased, albeit unequal, access to and provision of screening, diagnosis and treatment.
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The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol proposes a flexible communication solution for Low-Rate Wireless Personal Area Networks (LR-WPAN) including wireless sensor networks (WSNs). It presents the advantage to fit different requirements of potential applications by adequately setting its parameters. When in beaconenabled mode, the protocol can provide timeliness guarantees by using its Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) mechanism. However, power-efficiency and timeliness guarantees are often two antagonistic requirements in wireless sensor networks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and propose a methodology for setting the relevant parameters of IEEE 802.15.4-compliant WSNs that takes into account a proper trade-off between power-efficiency and delay bound guarantees. First, we propose two accurate models of service curves for a GTS allocation as a function of the IEEE 802.15.4 parameters, using Network Calculus formalism. We then evaluate the delay bound guaranteed by a GTS allocation and express it as a function of the duty cycle. Based on the relation between the delay requirement and the duty cycle, we propose a power-efficient superframe selection method that simultaneously reduces power consumption and enables meeting the delay requirements of real-time flows allocating GTSs. The results of this work may pave the way for a powerefficient management of the GTS mechanism in an IEEE 802.15.4 cluster.
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Search Optimization methods are needed to solve optimization problems where the objective function and/or constraints functions might be non differentiable, non convex or might not be possible to determine its analytical expressions either due to its complexity or its cost (monetary, computational, time,...). Many optimization problems in engineering and other fields have these characteristics, because functions values can result from experimental or simulation processes, can be modelled by functions with complex expressions or by noise functions and it is impossible or very difficult to calculate their derivatives. Direct Search Optimization methods only use function values and do not need any derivatives or approximations of them. In this work we present a Java API that including several methods and algorithms, that do not use derivatives, to solve constrained and unconstrained optimization problems. Traditional API access, by installing it on the developer and/or user computer, and remote API access to it, using Web Services, are also presented. Remote access to the API has the advantage of always allow the access to the latest version of the API. For users that simply want to have a tool to solve Nonlinear Optimization Problems and do not want to integrate these methods in applications, also two applications were developed. One is a standalone Java application and the other a Web-based application, both using the developed API.
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This paper presents an optimization approach for the job shop scheduling problem (JSSP). The JSSP is a difficult problem in combinatorial optimization for which extensive investigation has been devoted to the development of efficient algorithms. The proposed approach is based on a genetic algorithm technique. The scheduling rules such as SPT and MWKR are integrated into the process of genetic evolution. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedules are constructed using a priority rule in which the priorities and delay times of the operations are defined by the genetic algorithm. Schedules are constructed using a procedure that generates parameterized active schedules. After a schedule is obtained a local search heuristic is applied to improve the solution. The approach is tested on a set of standard instances taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) defines Eco-Efficiency as follows: ‘Eco- Efficiency is achieved by the delivery of competitively priced-goods and services that satisfy human needs and bring quality of life, while progressively reducing ecological impacts and resource intensity throughout the life-cycle to a level at least in line with the earth’s estimated carrying capacity’. Eco-Efficiency is under this point of view a key concept for sustainable development, bringing together economic and ecological progress. Measuring the Eco-Efficiency of a company, factory or business, is a complex process that involves the measurement and control of several and relevant parameters or indicators, globally applied to all companies in general, or specific according to the nature and specificities of the business itself. In this study, an attempt was made in order to measure and evaluate the eco-efficiency of a pultruded composite processing company. For this purpose the recommendations of WBCSD [1] and the directives of ISO 14301 standard [2] were followed and applied. The analysis was restricted to the main business branch of the company: the production and sale of standard GFRP pultrusion profiles. The main general indicators of eco-efficiency, as well as the specific indicators, were defined and determined according to ISO 14031 recommendations. With basis on indicators’ figures, the value profile, the environmental profile, and the pertinent eco-efficiency’s ratios were established and analyzed. In order to evaluate potential improvements on company eco-performance, new indicators values and ecoefficiency ratios were estimated taking into account the implementation of new proceedings and procedures, both in upstream and downstream of the production process, namely: a) Adoption of new heating system for pultrusion die in the manufacturing process, more effective and with minor heat losses; b) Implementation of new software for stock management (raw materials and final products) that minimize production failures and delivery delays to final consumer; c) Recycling approach, with partial waste reuse of scrap material derived from manufacturing, cutting and assembly processes of GFRP profiles. In particular, the last approach seems to significantly improve the eco-efficient performance of the company. Currently, by-products and wastes generated in the manufacturing process of GFRP profiles are landfilled, with supplementary added costs to this company traduced by transport of scrap, landfill taxes and required test analysis to waste materials. However, mechanical recycling of GFRP waste materials, with reduction to powdered and fibrous particulates, constitutes a recycling process that can be easily attained on heavy-duty cutting mills. The posterior reuse of obtained recyclates, either into a close-looping process, as filler replacement of resin matrix of GFRP profiles, or as reinforcement of other composite materials produced by the company, will drive to both costs reduction in raw materials and landfill process, and minimization of waste landfill. These features lead to significant improvements on the sequent assessed eco-efficiency ratios of the present case study, yielding to a more sustainable product and manufacturing process of pultruded GFRP profiles.
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The formulation of a bending vibration problem of an elastically restrained Bernoulli-Euler beam carrying a finite number of concentrated elements along its length is presented. In this study, the authors exploit the application of the differential evolution optimization technique to identify the torsional stiffness properties of the elastic supports of a Bernoulli-Euler beam. This hybrid strategy allows the determination of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of continuous beams, taking into account the effect of attached concentrated masses and rotational inertias, followed by a reconciliation step between the theoretical model results and the experimental ones. The proposed optimal identification of the elastic support parameters is computationally demanding if the exact eigenproblem solving is considered. Hence, the use of a Gaussian process regression as a meta-model is addressed. An experimental application is used in order to assess the accuracy of the estimated parameters throughout the comparison of the experimentally obtained natural frequency, from impact tests, and the correspondent computed eigenfrequency.
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Objetivo: Este estudo avaliou os efeitos da implementação de um programa de autorregulação no aumento da autonomia de um aluno com Perturbação do Espetro do Autismo, em contexto de sala de aula, no segmento letivo de Português. Método: A metodologia adotada foi quantitativa e experimental, num desenho de investigação de sujeito único, dividido em três fases de investigação: linha de base, início do programa de intervenção e um mês depois. Os registos dos vídeos, e a construção e implementação do programa de intervenção em conjunto com a professora, tiveram como base os princípios e procedimentos da Análise Comportamental Aplica. Resultados / Discussão: Após a implementação do programa de intervenção observou-se um acentuado aumento do envolvimento do aluno e das suas respostas às instruções académicas da professora, essencialmente ao nível das instruções de grupo que, na linha de base, apresentavam valores baixos. A eficácia da intervenção reforça a importância de se capacitar professores na aplicação de técnicas comportamentais dado que, neste estudo e à semelhança de outros, a professora aprendeu rapidamente a implementar práticas que facilmente se ajustam à sala de aula, levando à melhoria sistemática do comportamento do aluno com PEA numa sala de aula inclusiva.
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Proceeding of the 3rd International Conference on Fractional Systems and Signals, at Ghent, Belgium
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Near real time media content personalisation is nowadays a major challenge involving media content sources, distributors and viewers. This paper describes an approach to seamless recommendation, negotiation and transaction of personalised media content. It adopts an integrated view of the problem by proposing, on the business-to-business (B2B) side, a brokerage platform to negotiate the media items on behalf of the media content distributors and sources, providing viewers, on the business-to-consumer (B2C) side, with a personalised electronic programme guide (EPG) containing the set of recommended items after negotiation. In this setup, when a viewer connects, the distributor looks up and invites sources to negotiate the contents of the viewer personal EPG. The proposed multi-agent brokerage platform is structured in four layers, modelling the registration, service agreement, partner lookup, invitation as well as item recommendation, negotiation and transaction stages of the B2B processes. The recommendation service is a rule-based switch hybrid filter, including six collaborative and two content-based filters. The rule-based system selects, at runtime, the filter(s) to apply as well as the final set of recommendations to present. The filter selection is based on the data available, ranging from the history of items watched to the ratings and/or tags assigned to the items by the viewer. Additionally, this module implements (i) a novel item stereotype to represent newly arrived items, (ii) a standard user stereotype for new users, (iii) a novel passive user tag cloud stereotype for socially passive users, and (iv) a new content-based filter named the collinearity and proximity similarity (CPS). At the end of the paper, we present off-line results and a case study describing how the recommendation service works. The proposed system provides, to our knowledge, an excellent holistic solution to the problem of recommending multimedia contents.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau Mestre em Engenharia Civil – Perfil de Construção
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RESUMO: O envelhecimento populacional saudável ocupa parte da agenda do processo do envelhecimento humano, retratando uma preocupação social com repercussões nas economias societárias. O processo de envelhecimento, quando abordado fora do paradigma do envelhecimento saudável, desconsidera socialmente o potencial humano das pessoas idosas, promovendo a segregação e motivando atitudes de preconceito e discriminação, além de desperdiçar a experiência, o saber, a cultura e a capacidade de participação da pessoa idosa como contributo para a sociedade a que ela está inserida. O foco central da Política Nacional de Saúde do Idoso brasileira se inscreve na promoção de um envelhecimento saudável, nomeadamente por meio da manutenção da capacidade funcional ao valorizar a autonomia, a independência física e a integridade mental da pessoa idosa. O desafio para a viabilização do processo de envelhecimento ativo e bem-sucedido consiste na maximização das capacidades, potencialidades e recursos pessoais, comunitários e políticos. Pressupõe, também, uma concepção ampliada de viver, contextualizada no contínuo da vida, capaz de externar a preocupação com a saúde e o bem-estar, integrando as pessoas em fase de envelhecimento no contexto do ciclo de vida. Diante do exposto, a presente investigação objetivou conhecer os determinantes de envelhecimento ativo e bem-sucedido, numa população em processo de envelhecimento e relacioná-los com as ―práticas/conteúdos‖ e representações / significados‖ sobre o envelhecimento, as atividades físicas e a capacidade funcional. A investigação foi estruturada em três estudos: no primeiro foi criado e testado o instrumento ―Envelhecimento ativo, capacidade funcional e atividade física‖, na cidade de Lisboa, Portugal, e posteriormente realizada sua adaptação cultural e linguística do português de Portugal para o do Brasil. No segundo foi feita uma pesquisa observacional do tipo survey, descritiva e exploratória com o objetivo de conhecer as relações esteabelecidas entre o envelhecimento bem-sucedido, ativo, a atividade física e a capacidade funcional de uma população em processo de envelhecimento; e no terceiro momento foi realizado um estudo de cariz qualitativo com o objetivo de captar as percepções e comportamentos dos entrevistados diante do fato de se sentirem ou não pessoas idosas ou envelhecidas. Foram adotados os seguintes referenciais teóricos: envelhecimento ativo, envelhecimento bem sucedido, concepção muldidimensional do processual do envelhecimento (determinantes pessoais, familiares, sociais, psicocomunicacionais, econômicos e de saúde), atividade física e capacidade funcional e abordados à luz do perfil demográfico e da experiência das realidades européias, americana e brasileira. Foram triagulados métodos e técnicas (entrevista individual gravada, mensurações e questionário). Participaram pessoas com 60 anos de idade ou mais vinculadas que frequentam dois programas públicos destinados às pessoas idosas na cidade de Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil e foram excluidas as participações de pessoas com dependência para atividades da vida diária, para as atividades instrumentais da vida diária e com alteração do nível de consciência. Amostra aleatória estratificada composta por 326 participantes na qual foram realizadas mensurações e amostra por tipicidade construída a partir da base amostral composta de 87 participantes na qual foi realizada entrevista individual gravada. Atendidos todos os requisitos éticos e legais de pesquisa envolvendo seres humanos, segundo legislação brasileira. Aplicada Análise Fatorial e selecionados 11 fatores com 31 variáveis que contemplaram os determinantes do processo de envelhecimento ativo. Realizado reajustamento da análise fatorial,por questão de coerência conceptual, sendo selecionado oito fatores nomeados de acordo com o referencial teórico adotado que resultou em 25 variáveis que abordaram a participação em atividades e acesso aos serviços de saúde; à atividade física; à convivência, interação e avaliação do contato social; à escolaridade e renda; à saúde percebida e ao voluntariado. Utilizado como marcador para a atividade aeróbia o perfil da sobrecarga da atividade física semanal em consonância com diretrizes e recomendações de atividades aeróbias de intensidade moderada para as pessoas idosas. Identificado que 60,7% dos entrevistados realizam atividade física insuficiente. Os indicadores antropométricos utilizados evidenciaram índices de sobrepeso e de obesidade tanto entre os homens quanto entre as mulheres. Houve correlação do índice de massa corporal (IMC) com as medidas efetuadas segundo as faixas etárias. A análise inferencial possibilitou relacionar os determinantes do envelhecimento ativo, as medidas antropométricas e as variáveis sociodemográficas (escolaridade e idade), sendo obtidos os seguintes destaques: 1) à medida em que a idade aumenta, diminuem os níveis de prática da atividade física, dos contatos com as pessoas para conversar (das relações de convivência), dos trabalhos de voluntariado e das relações familiares e intergeracionais; 2) foi identificado um alinhamento conceptual dos diferentes determinantes concorrentes para um envelhecimento ativo à luz da prática da atividade física com a convivência e interação com os familiares e com auto-avaliação positiva da saúde percebida e atividade física; 3) quanto maior a idade menor os anos de escolaridade; 4) a diminuição da área transversa do braço e do IMC à medida que a idade aumenta, retratou diminuição da adiposidade corporal que está associada à perda da massa magra. A categorização do discurso dos 87 entrevistados permitiu captar a percepção do processo de envelhecimento por dois critérios antagônicos: preservação da autonomia e presença da deterioração. Foi caracterizado o sistema de crenças dos participantes com 1090 emissões de crenças. Houve tendência do sistema de crenças à centralidade com 638 (58,6%) crenças retratando concepções e situações difíceis de serem modificadas por processos educacionais. Os resultados obtidos diagnosticaram e reiteraram a tendência de incremento numérico de pessoas com 60 anos de idade ou mais na cidade brasileira de Juiz de Fora. Embora o estatuto do idoso esteja alicerçado em princípios do envelhecimento saudável e ativo ficou evidenciado a necessidade de estratégias para implementá-la com vistas a impactos sociais, econômicas e de saúde na perspectiva da prática de atividade física e da preservação da capacidade funcional. Constituem contribuição da presente investigação: 1) fundamentos teóricos e informação sobre juiz-foranos com 60 anos de idade ou mais segundo dimensões social, econômica, cultural e espiritual numa concepção ampliada de saúde; 2) abordagem do envelhecimento de forma processual e integrada, multidimensional e articulada com o ciclo da vida; 3) diagnóstico do grau de autonomia dos participantes permitindo subsidiar decisões para melhorar a capacidade funcional dos mesmos; 4) processo investigativo utilizando modelos teóricos que permitiram estabelecer um diagnóstico local e contextualizar o processo de envelhecimento para os participantes e 5) sobrecarga semanal de atividade física e os indicadores antropométricos dos participantes a ponto de subsidiar parâmetros de indicação terapêutica para manutenção da capacidade funcional.-------- ABSTRACT: The populational healthy aging holds part of the process of the human aging agenda, portraying a social concern with the repercussion in societary economies. The aging process when addressed out of the healthy aging paradigm socially disregard the human potential of the elderly, promoting segregation and motivating acts of prejudice and discrimination, in addition to the waste of experience, knowledge, culture and the participatory capacity of an older person in contributting to the society they are a part of. The Brazilian National Health Policy for the Elderly has its main focus in promoting the healthy aging, namely through the maintenance of the functional capacity by valuing the autonomy, physical independence and the mental integrity of the elderly person. The challenge of enabling the process of a successful and active aging lays in maximazing the capabilities, potencialities and personal, communitary and political resources. It infers additionaly a broad view of living, contextualized in the continuum of life, able to express concern with health and well-being, integrating the people in aging phase to the context of the life cycle. Hence, this research aimed to learn the determinants of active and successful aging in a population in aging process and relate them with the "practices/contents" and "representations/meanings" about aging, the physical activities and functional capacity. The investigation was structured in three studies: in the first it was developed and tested the instrument "Active Aging, Functional Capacity and Physical Activity" in the city of Lisboa, Portugal, and afterwards it was culturally and linguistically adapted from Portugal Portuguese to Brazilian Portuguese. The second study was an observational research with survey, descriptive and exploratory methods which aimed to learn the relations established between the successful aging, active aging, the physical activity and the functional capacity of a population in aging process; and the third comprised a qualitative study with the objective to collect the understanding and behavior of the interviewees based on the fact of either they saw themselves as elder or aged person or not. As theoretical framework were explored: active aging, successful aging, multidimensional concept of aging process (personal, familial, social, psycho-communicational, economic determinants), physical activity and functional capacity and explored based in demographic profile and in the European, American a Brazilian realities. Performed triangulation of methods and tecniques (recorded individual interviews, measurements and questionnaires). Participants were aged 60 or older included in two public services for the elderly population in the city of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil and were excluded persons with dependency in both daily activities and instrumental daily activities and the persons with altered level of conciousness. Stratified ramdon sample of 326 participants in which were performed the measurements and typicality sample constructed from the sample basis of 87 participants whereupon the recorded individual interview was performed. Conforming to all the ethical and legal requirements of research with human beings according to the Brazilian legislation. Applied Factor Analysis and selected 11 factors and 31 variables that convey the determinants of the active aging process. Executed reajustment of factor analysis, for conceptual coherence, being selected eight factors named accordingly to the theoretical framework that resulted in 25 variables which approached the participation in activities and access to health care services; to physical activity; to coexistence, interaction and evaluation of social contact; to scholarity and income; to perceived health and volunteering. Used as marker to aerobic activity the profile of weekly physical activity overload in accordance with guidelines and reccomendations for moderate-intensity aerobic activities for older people. Identified that 60,7% of interviewees practice enough physical activity. Anthropometric markers evidence overweight and obesity levels both within men and women. There was correlation between body mass index (BMI) and measures carried out according to age ranges. The inferential analysis allowed relating the active aging determinants, the anthropometric measurements and sociodemographic variables (scholarity and age), obtaining the following highlights: 1) to the extent that age increases, lowers the levels of physical activity practice, of contact with people to talk to (social relationships), of volunteering work and familial and intergenerational relationships; 2) it was identified a conceptual alignment of diferent determinants concurrent to an active aging in light of the physical activity practice with the relationship and interaction of family and with positive self-assessment of perceived health and physical activity; 3) the older the person, lower are scholarity levels; 4) the decrease of the cross-sectional area of the arm and BMI as the age increases portrayed decreased adiposity of the body that is associated with loss of lean body mass. The categorization of the speech of 87 interviewees allowed to collect the understanding of the aging process by two opposite criteria: preservation of autonomy and existance of decline. It marked the belief system of participants with 1090 beliefs expressed. With tendency of the belief system to centrality with 638(58,6%) beliefs showing concepts and dificult situations to be changed through educational processes. The results diagnosed and reiterated the tendency of increase in the number of people aged 60 or older in the Brazilian city of Juiz de Fora. Although the elderly statute is built upon principles of healthy and active aging it was evident the need of strategies to implement it aiming at social, economic and health impacts in the perspective of physical education and preservation of the functional capacity. Constitute contributions of this study: 1) theoretical fundaments and data about Juiz de Fora citizens aged 60 or more according to social, economic, cultural and spiritual dimensions in a broad concept of health; 2) approach of aging in a procedural and integrative, multidimensional manner, articulated with the life cycle; 3) diagnosis of degree of autonomy of participants enabling decisions on how to improve their functional capacities; 4) investigative process using theoretical models which permit to stablish a local diagnosis and contextualize the aging process of participants and 5) weekly overload of physical activity and anthropometric indexes of participants as to subsidize parameters to therapeutic indication to the maintainence of functional capacity.