Risk-conscious Reconstruction in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A Case Study of the Chakhama Valley

The Chakhama Valley, a remote area in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was badly damaged by the 7.6-magnitude earthquake that struck India and Pakistan on 8 October 2005. More than 5% of the population lost their lives, and about 90% of the existing housing was irreparably damaged or completely destroyed. In early 2006, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) initiated a multisector, community-driven reconstruction program in the Chakhama Valley on the premise that the scale of the disaster required a response that would address all aspects of people's lives. One important aspect covered the promotion of disaster risk management for sustainable recovery in a safe environment. Accordingly, prevailing hazards (rockfalls, landslides, and debris flow, in addition to earthquake hazards) and existing risks were thoroughly assessed, and the information was incorporated into the main planning processes. Hazard maps, detailed site investigations, and proposals for precautionary measures assisted engineers in supporting the reconstruction of private homes in safe locations to render investments disaster resilient. The information was also used for community-based land use decisions and disaster mitigation and preparedness. The work revealed three main problems: (1) thorough assessment of hazards and incorporation of this assessment into planning processes is time consuming and often little understood by the population directly affected, but it pays off in the long run; (2) relocating people out of dangerous places is a highly sensitive issue that requires the support of clear and forceful government policies; and (3) the involvement of local communities is essential for the success of mitigation and preparedness.

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Aproximación metodológica a una articulación entre gestión del riesgo, gestión ambiental y ordenamiento territorial

El nuevo escenario territorial generado por el cambio climático y la globalización económica ha aumentado la vulnerabilidad de la población a sufrir eventos asociados a riesgos naturales. El Ordenamiento Territorial surge como una herramienta para disminuir la vulnerabilidad, en forma planificada y sustentable con el ambiente. Sin embargo, para que dicha herramienta sea realmente eficaz, es necesario que integre la Gestión del Riesgo y la Gestión Ambiental, definiéndose de esa manera una metodología integradora. Con este fin, se presentan en este artículo dos aproximaciones metodológicas surgidas de la discusión de una comunidad de práctica integrada por académicos de universidades latinoamericanas que han unido sus esfuerzos y experiencias para solucionar un problema común, y que pretende disminuir el riesgo de sus poblaciones a sufrir desastres naturales.

Aproximación metodológica a una articulación entre gestión del riesgo, gestión ambiental y ordenamiento territorial

El nuevo escenario territorial generado por el cambio climático y la globalización económica ha aumentado la vulnerabilidad de la población a sufrir eventos asociados a riesgos naturales. El Ordenamiento Territorial surge como una herramienta para disminuir la vulnerabilidad, en forma planificada y sustentable con el ambiente. Sin embargo, para que dicha herramienta sea realmente eficaz, es necesario que integre la Gestión del Riesgo y la Gestión Ambiental, definiéndose de esa manera una metodología integradora. Con este fin, se presentan en este artículo dos aproximaciones metodológicas surgidas de la discusión de una comunidad de práctica integrada por académicos de universidades latinoamericanas que han unido sus esfuerzos y experiencias para solucionar un problema común, y que pretende disminuir el riesgo de sus poblaciones a sufrir desastres naturales.

Aproximación metodológica a una articulación entre gestión del riesgo, gestión ambiental y ordenamiento territorial

El nuevo escenario territorial generado por el cambio climático y la globalización económica ha aumentado la vulnerabilidad de la población a sufrir eventos asociados a riesgos naturales. El Ordenamiento Territorial surge como una herramienta para disminuir la vulnerabilidad, en forma planificada y sustentable con el ambiente. Sin embargo, para que dicha herramienta sea realmente eficaz, es necesario que integre la Gestión del Riesgo y la Gestión Ambiental, definiéndose de esa manera una metodología integradora. Con este fin, se presentan en este artículo dos aproximaciones metodológicas surgidas de la discusión de una comunidad de práctica integrada por académicos de universidades latinoamericanas que han unido sus esfuerzos y experiencias para solucionar un problema común, y que pretende disminuir el riesgo de sus poblaciones a sufrir desastres naturales.

Competition of the mechanisms : how Chinese home appliance firms coped with default risk of trade credit?

During the transition period from a planned economy to a market economy in 1990s of China, there was a considerable accrual of deferred payment, and default due to inferior enforcement institutions. This is a very common phenomenon in the transition economies at that time. Interviews with home electronics appliance firms revealed that firms coped with this problem by adjusting their sales mechanisms (found four types), and the benefit of institutions was limited. A theoretical analysis claim that spot and integration are inferior to contracts, a contract with a rebate on volume and prepayment against an exclusive agent can realize the lowest cost and price. The empirical part showed that mechanisms converged into a mechanism with the rebate on volume an against exclusive agent and its price level is the lowest. The competition is the driving force of the convergence of mechanisms and improvement risk management capacity.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Integrated economic-hydrologic analysis of policy responses

Water is a vital resource, but also a critical limiting factor for economic and social development in many parts of the world. The recent rapid growth in human population and water use for social and economic development is increasing the pressure on water resources and the environment, as well as leading to growing conflicts among competing water use sectors (agriculture, urban, tourism, industry) and regions (Gleick et al., 2009; World Bank, 2006). In Spain, as in many other arid and semi-arid regions affected by drought and wide climate variability, irrigated agriculture is responsible for most consumptive water use and plays an important role in sustaining rural livelihoods (Varela-Ortega, 2007). Historically, the evolution of irrigation has been based on publicly-funded irrigation development plans that promoted economic growth and improved the socio-economic conditions of rural farmers in agrarian Spain, but increased environmental damage and led to excessive and inefficient exploitation of water resources (Garrido and Llamas, 2010; Varela-Ortega et al., 2010). Currently, water policies in Spain focus on rehabilitating and improving the efficiency of irrigation systems, and are moving from technocratic towards integrated water management strategies driven by the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD).

The future obligations of "project manager" as construction integral director (DIPE) in the law of buildings construction in spain (LOE)

In the year 1999 approves the Law of Construction Building (LOE, in Spanish) to regulate a sector such as construction, which contained some shortcomings from the legal point of view. Currently, the LOE has been in force 12 years, changing the spanish world of the construction, due to influenced by internationalization. Within the LOE, there regulating the different actors involved in the construction building, as the Projects design, the Director of Construction, the developer, The builder, Director of execution of the construction (actor only in Spain, similar as construcion engineer and abroad in), control entities and the users, but lacks figure Project manager will assume the delegation of the promoter helping and you organize, direct and management the process. This figure assumes that the market and contracts are not legally regulated in Spain, then should define and establish its regulation in the LOE. (Spain Construction Law) The translation in spanish of the words "Project Manager is owed to Professor Rafael de Heredia in his book Integrated Project Management, as agent acting on behalf of the organization and promoter assuming control of the project, ie Integraded Project Management . Already exist in Spain, AEDIP (Spanish Association Integrated of Project Construction management) which comprises the major companies in “Project Management” in Spain, and MeDIP (Master in Integrated Construction Project) the largest and most advanced studies at the Polytechnic University of Madrid, in "Construction Project Management" they teach which is also in Argentina. The Integrated Project ("Project Management") applied to the construction process is a methodological technique that helps to organize, control and manage the resources of the promoters in the building process. When resources are limited (which is usually most situations) to manage them efficiently becomes very important. Well, we find that in this situation, the resources are not only limited, but it is limited, so a comprehensive control and monitoring of them becomes not only important if not crucial. The alternative of starting from scratch with a team that specializes in developing these follow directly intervening to ensure that scarce resources are used in the best possible way requires the use of a specific methodology (Manual DIP, Matrix Foreign EDR breakdown structure EDP Project, Risk Management and Control, Design Management, et ..), that is the methodology used by "Projects managers" to ensure that the initial objectives of the promoters or investors are met and all actors in process, from design to construction company have the mind aim of the project will do, trying to get their interests do not prevail over the interests of the project. Among the agents listed in the building process, "Project Management" or DIPE (Director Comprehensive building process, a proposed name for possible incorporation into the LOE, ) currently not listed as such in the LOE (Act on Construction Planning ), one of the agents that exist within the building process is not regulated from the legal point of view, no obligations, ie, as is required by law to have a project, a builder, a construction management, etc. DIPE only one who wants to hire you as have been advanced knowledge of their services by the clients they have been hiring these agents, there being no legal obligation as mentioned above, then the market is dictating its ruling on this new figure, as if it were necessary, he was not hired and eventually disappeared from the building process. As the aim of this article is regular the process and implement the name of DIPE in the Spanish Law of buildings construction (LOE)

Environmental risk assessment in open pit blasting operations: compliance with ISO 31010:2010

All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. With that idea, new ISO Standard has been drawn up. ISO 31010 has been recently issued which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyses the risk in term of consequences and their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. In this lecture, that ISO Standard has been adapted to Open Pit Blasting Operations, focusing in Environmental effects which can be managed properly. Technique used is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which is applied in all possible scenarios, providing to Blasting Professionals the tools to identify, analyze and manage environmental effects in blasting operations. Also this lecture can help to minimize each effect, studying each case. This paper also can be useful to Project Managers and Occupational Health and Safety Departments (OH&S) because blasting operations can be evaluated and compared one to each other to determine the risks that should be managed in different case studies. The environmental effects studied are: ground vibrations, flyrock and air overpressure (airblast). Sometimes, blasting operations are carried out near populated areas where environmental effects may impose several limitations on the use of explosives. In those cases, where these factors approach certain limits, National Standards and Regulations have to be applied.

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.

Nematodes as indicators of the effect of soil fumigants on soil functioning

Debido al futuro incierto de la mayor parte de los fumigantes edáficos usados actualmente en la Unión Europea, que pueden implicar riesgos para la salud humana/animal y el medio ambiente, es necesario desarrollar programas de manejo integrado para el control de plagas de cultivos. Estos programas se incluyen como obligatorios en el Reglamento (EC) No. 1107/2009. De acuerdo con este Reglamento, es obligatoria la evaluación del riesgo asociado al uso de productos fitosanitarios sobre los organismos edáficos no diana y sus funciones, además de llevar a cabo ensayos con diferentes especies indicadoras para obtener datos de toxicidad que puedan ser usados posteriormente en la evaluación de riesgo. Sin embargo, la baja representatividad de algunas de estas especies indicadoras en el área Mediterránea supone una gran limitación. En esta situación, el Panel Científico de Productos Fitosanitarios y sus Residuos de la Autoridad Europea en Seguridad Alimentaria (EFSA), ha señalado la necesidad de modificar los datos ecotoxicológicos requeridos para evaluar los efectos adversos de los productos fitosanitarios de una manera más integrada, incluyendo criterios funcionales y estructurales mediante organismos como bacterias, hongos, protozoos y nematodos. De este modo, la EFSA ha recomendado el uso de los nematodos en la evaluación de la funcionalidad y estructura del suelo. Los nematodos están globalmente distribuidos y son morfológicamente diversos; esto junto con su gran abundancia y diversidad de respuestas a las perturbaciones edáficas, los convierte en indicadores adecuados del estado del suelo. Puesto que los nematodos interaccionan con muchos otros organismos que participan en diferentes eslabones de la red trófica edáfica, jugando papeles importantes en procesos edáficos esenciales en los agroescosistemas, la diversidad de nematodos es, a menudo, usada como indicador biológico de los efectos de las prácticas agrícolas en el estado del suelo. En los últimos años, diferentes índices basados en la comunidad nematológica han facilitado la interpretación de datos complejos sobre la ecología del suelo. Los índices de la red trófica edáfica, basados en la abundancia de grupos funcionales definidos como grupos C-P y grupos tróficos, permiten la evaluación de la funcionalidad de la red trófica edáfica. Por otra parte, la dificultad en la identificación taxonómica de nematodos para explicar su uso limitado como indicadores ecológicos, es ampliamente discutida, y existe cierta controversia en cuanto a la eficacia de los diferentes métodos de identificación de nematodos. Se argumenta que la identificación morfológica es difícil y puede llevar mucho tiempo debido a la falta de expertos especializados, y se afirma que las técnicas moleculares pueden resolver algunas limitaciones de las técnicas morfológicas como la identificación de juveniles. Sin embargo, los métodos de identificación molecular tienen también limitaciones; la mayoría de las bases de datos de secuencias de ADN están fuertemente orientadas hacia los nematodos fitoparásitos, los cuales representan sólo una parte de la comunidad edáfica de nematodos, mientras que hay poca información disponible de nematodos de vida libre a pesar de representar la mayoría de los nematodos edáficos. Este trabajo se centra en el estudio de los efectos de fumigantes edáficos en la funcionalidad del suelo a través del uso de diferentes indicadores basados en la comunidad de nematodos, como los índices de la red trófica, índices de diversidad, abundancia de los taxones más relevantes etc. También se han analizado otros indicadores funcionales relacionados con la supresividad edáfica, el ciclo de nutrientes o la actividad de la microfauna del suelo. En el capítulo 1, la diversidad de nematodos estudiada en una explotación comercial de fresa y sus alrededores durante dos campañas consecutivas en el suroeste español, fue baja en los suelos fumigados con fumigantes químicos ambas campañas y, aunque se observó una recuperación a lo largo de la campaña en la zona tratada, los suelos fumigados mostraron una condición perturbada permanente. La comunidad de nematodos estuvo más asociada al ciclo de nutrientes en la zona sin cultivar que en los suelos cultivados, y se observó poca relación entre la biomasa de las plantas y la estructura de la comunidad de nematodos. Los surcos sin tratar dentro de la zona de cultivo funcionaron como reservorio tanto de nematodos fitoparásitos como beneficiosos; sin embargo estas diferencias entre los surcos y los lomos de cultivo no fueron suficientes para mantener la supresividad edáfica en los surcos. Los suelos tratados fueron menos supresivos que los suelos sin tratar, y se observaron correlaciones positivas entre la supresividad edáfica y la estructura de la red trófica edáfica y la diversidad de nematodos. En el capítulo 2, se evaluaron los efectos de dos pesticidas orgánicos con efecto nematicida y dos nematicidas convencionales sobre las propiedades físico químicas del suelo, la diversidad de nematodos y la biomasa de las plantas en condiciones experimentales en dos tipos de suelo: suelos agrícolas poco diversos y suelos provenientes de una zona de vegetación natural muy diversos. El mayor efecto se observó en el tratamiento con neem, el cual indujo un gran incremento en el número de dauerlarvas en los suelos pobres en nutrientes, mientras que el mismo tratamiento indujo un incremento de poblaciones de nematodos bacterívoros, más estables y menos oportunistas, en los suelos del pinar ricos en materia orgánica. En el capítulo 3, se comparó la eficacia de métodos moleculares (TRFLP, Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) y morfológicos (microscopía de alta resolución) para la identificación de diferentes comunidades denematodos de España e Irlanda. Se compararon estadísticamente las diferencias y similitudes en la diversidad de nematodos, otros indicadores ecológicos y de la red trófica edáfica. Las identificaciones mediante el uso de TRFLP sólo detectó un porcentaje de los taxones presentes en las muestras de suelo identificadas morfológicamente, y los nematodos omnívoros y predadores no fueron detectados molecularmente en nuestro estudio. Los índices calculados en base a los nematodos micróboros mostraron más similitud cuando se identificaron morfológica y molecularmente que los índices basados en grupos tróficos más altos. Nuestros resultados muestran que, al menos con la técnica usada en este estudio, la identificación morfológica de nematodos es una herramienta fiable y más precisa que la identificación molecular, puesto que en general se obtiene una mayor resolución en la identificación de nematodos. En el capítulo 4, se estudiaron también los efectos de los nematicidas químicos sobre la comunidad de nematodos y la biomasa de las plantas en condiciones experimentales de campo, donde se aplicaron en una rotación de cultivo judía-col durante un ciclo de cultivo. Se aplicaron dos tipos de enmiendas orgánicas con el objetivo de mitigar el efecto negativo de los productos fitosanitarios sobre la diversidad edáfica. El efecto de los nematicidas sobre las propiedades del suelo y sobre la comunidad de nematodos fue más agudo que el efecto de las enmiendas. La incorporación de los restos de cosecha al final del ciclo de cultivo de la judía tuvo un gran efecto sobre la comunidad de nematodos, y aunque el número total de nematodos incrementó al final del experimento, se observó una condición perturbada permanente de la red trófica edáfica a lo largo del experimento. ABSTRACT Due to the uncertain future of the soil fumigants most commonly used in the EU, that might involve risks for human/animal health and the environment, there is a need to develop new integrated pest management programs, included as mandatory in the Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009, to control crop diseases. According to this Regulation, evaluating the risk associated to the use of the plant production products (PPP) on non-target soil fauna and their function, and developing assays with different indicator species to obtain toxicity data to be used in the risk evaluation is mandatory. However, the low representativeness of some of these indicator species in the Mediterranean area is a relevant limitation. In this situation, the Scientific Panel of Plant Protection Products and their Residues of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has pointed out the necessity of modifying the ecotoxicological data set required to evaluate non-target effects of PPP in a more integrated way, including structural and functional endpoints with organism such as bacteria, fungi, protists and nematodes. Thus, EFSA has recommended the use of nematodes in the assessment of the functional and structural features of the soil. Nematodes are globally distributed and morphologically diverse, and due to their high abundance and diversity of responses to soil disturbance, they are suitable indicators of the soil condition. Since nematodes interact with many other organisms as participants in several links of the soil food web, playing important roles in essential soil processes in agroecosystems, nematode diversity is often used as a biological indicator of the effects of agricultural practices on soil condition. In the last years, various indices based on soil nematode assemblages, have facilitated the interpretation of complex soil ecological data. Soil food web indices based on the abundances of functional guilds defined by C-P groups and trophic groups, permit evaluating soil food web functioning. On the other hand, the difficulty of nematode taxonomical identification is commonly argued to explain their limited used as ecological indicators, and there is a certain controversy in terms of the efficacy of various nematode identification methods. It is argued that the morphological identification is difficult and time consuming due to the lack of specialist knowledge, and it is claimed that molecular techniques can solve some limitations of morphological techniques such as the identification of juveniles. Nevertheless, molecular identification methods are limited too, since most of the DNA-based databases are strongly oriented towards plant-parasitic nematodes that represent only a fraction of the soil nematode community, while there is little information available on free-living nematodes, which represent most soil nematodes. This work focuses on the study of the effects of soil fumigants on soil functioning through the use of different indicators based on soil nematode community as soil food web indices, diversity indices, the abundance of more relevant taxa etc. Other functional indicators related to soil suppressiveness, nutrient cycling, or the activity of soil microfauna have been also studied. In chapter 1, nematode diversity assessed in a commercial strawberry farm and its surroundings for two consecutive growing seasons in southern Spain, was low in fumigated soils with chemical pesticides throughout both seasons and, although yearly recovery occurred within the treated fields, fumigated soils showed a permanent perturbed condition. The nematode community was more closely associated to nutrient cycling in the non-cropped than in the cropped soils, and the link between plant biomass and nematode community structure was weak. Non-treated furrows within the treated fields were a reservoir of both beneficial and plant-parasitic nematodes, but such difference between furrows and beds was not enough to maintain more suppressive soil assemblages in the furrows. Treated soils were less suppressive than unmanaged soils, and there was a positive and significant correlation between soil suppressiveness and soil food web structure and diversity. In chapter 2, the effects of two organic pesticides with nematicide effect and two chemical nematicides on soil physicalchemical properties, soil nematode diversity and plant biomass in experimental conditions were assessed in two types of soils: low diversity soils from an agricultural farm, and high diversity soils from a natural vegetation area. The larger effect was observed on the neem treatment, which induced a large boost of dauer juveniles in the nutrient-depleted soil, while the same treatment induced the increase of more stable, less opportunistic, populations of generalist bacterivore nematodes in the pine forest soil, rich in organic matter. In chapter 3, comparison of the efficiency of molecular (TRFLP, Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) and morphological (microscopy at high magnification) identification methods was carried out in different nematode communities from five sites of different land uses in Spain and Ireland. Differences and similarities on nematode diversity and other ecological and soil food web indices assessed by both methods, were statistically compared. Molecular identification with TRFLP only detected a percentage of the taxa present in the soil samples identified morphologically, and omnivores and predators were not detected molecularly in our study. Indices involving microbial feeding nematodes were more similar between identification methods than indices involving higher trophic links. Our results show that, at least with the technique used in this study, identifying nematodes morphologically is a reliable and more precise identification tool than molecular identification, since a higher taxonomic resolution is in general obtained compared to TRFLP. In chapter 4, the effect of chemical nematicides on nematode community descriptors and plant biomass was also studied in field conditions in an experimental area in which dazomet and dimethyl disulfide was applied in a bean-cabbage rotation system for a single season. Organic amendments were incorporated into the soil with the aim of mitigate the negative effect of the pesticides on soil diversity. The effect of the nematicides was much more noticeable than the effect of the amendments on soil properties and nematode community descriptors. The incorporation of bean crop residues into the soil at the end of bean crop cycle affected soil nematode community descriptors to a great extent, and although total number of nematodes increased at the end of the experiment, a permanent perturbed soil food web condition was observed along the experiment.

Qualitative operational value at risk for an electric utility based on the guidelines of the basel committee

This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk ?OpVaR? in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of risk.

Cognitive risk perception system for obstacle avoidance in outdoor mUAV missions

La robótica ha evolucionado exponencialmente en las últimas décadas, permitiendo a los sistemas actuales realizar tareas sumamente complejas con gran precisión, fiabilidad y velocidad. Sin embargo, este desarrollo ha estado asociado a un mayor grado de especialización y particularización de las tecnologías implicadas, siendo estas muy eficientes en situaciones concretas y controladas, pero incapaces en entornos cambiantes, dinámicos y desestructurados. Por eso, el desarrollo de la robótica debe pasar por dotar a los sistemas de capacidad de adaptación a las circunstancias, de entendedimiento sobre los cambios observados y de flexibilidad a la hora de interactuar con el entorno. Estas son las caracteristicas propias de la interacción del ser humano con su entorno, las que le permiten sobrevivir y las que pueden proporcionar a un sistema inteligencia y capacidad suficientes para desenvolverse en un entorno real de forma autónoma e independiente. Esta adaptabilidad es especialmente importante en el manejo de riesgos e incetidumbres, puesto que es el mecanismo que permite contextualizar y evaluar las amenazas para proporcionar una respuesta adecuada. Así, por ejemplo, cuando una persona se mueve e interactua con su entorno, no evalúa los obstáculos en función de su posición, velocidad o dinámica (como hacen los sistemas robóticos tradicionales), sino mediante la estimación del riesgo potencial que estos elementos suponen para la persona. Esta evaluación se consigue combinando dos procesos psicofísicos del ser humano: por un lado, la percepción humana analiza los elementos relevantes del entorno, tratando de entender su naturaleza a partir de patrones de comportamiento, propiedades asociadas u otros rasgos distintivos. Por otro lado, como segundo nivel de evaluación, el entendimiento de esta naturaleza permite al ser humano conocer/estimar la relación de los elementos con él mismo, así como sus implicaciones en cuanto a nivel de riesgo se refiere. El establecimiento de estas relaciones semánticas -llamado cognición- es la única forma de definir el nivel de riesgo de manera absoluta y de generar una respuesta adecuada al mismo. No necesariamente proporcional, sino coherente con el riesgo al que se enfrenta. La investigación que presenta esta tesis describe el trabajo realizado para trasladar esta metodología de análisis y funcionamiento a la robótica. Este se ha centrado especialmente en la nevegación de los robots aéreos, diseñando e implementado procedimientos de inspiración humana para garantizar la seguridad de la misma. Para ello se han estudiado y evaluado los mecanismos de percepción, cognición y reacción humanas en relación al manejo de riesgos. También se ha analizado como los estímulos son capturados, procesados y transformados por condicionantes psicológicos, sociológicos y antropológicos de los seres humanos. Finalmente, también se ha analizado como estos factores motivan y descandenan las reacciones humanas frente a los peligros. Como resultado de este estudio, todos estos procesos, comportamientos y condicionantes de la conducta humana se han reproducido en un framework que se ha estructurado basadandose en factores análogos. Este emplea el conocimiento obtenido experimentalmente en forma de algoritmos, técnicas y estrategias, emulando el comportamiento humano en las mismas circunstancias. Diseñado, implementeado y validado tanto en simulación como con datos reales, este framework propone una manera innovadora -tanto en metodología como en procedimiento- de entender y reaccionar frente a las amenazas potenciales de una misión robótica. ABSTRACT Robotics has undergone a great revolution in the last decades. Nowadays this technology is able to perform really complex tasks with a high degree of accuracy and speed, however this is only true in precisely defined situations with fully controlled variables. Since the real world is dynamic, changing and unstructured, flexible and non context-dependent systems are required. The ability to understand situations, acknowledge changes and balance reactions is required by robots to successfully interact with their surroundings in a fully autonomous fashion. In fact, it is those very processes that define human interactions with the environment. Social relationships, driving or risk/incertitude management... in all these activities and systems, context understanding and adaptability are what allow human beings to survive: contrarily to the traditional robotics, people do not evaluate obstacles according to their position but according to the potential risk their presence imply. In this sense, human perception looks for information which goes beyond location, speed and dynamics (the usual data used in traditional obstacle avoidance systems). Specific features in the behaviour of a particular element allows the understanding of that element’s nature and therefore the comprehension of the risk posed by it. This process defines the second main difference between traditional obstacle avoidance systems and human behaviour: the ability to understand a situation/scenario allows to get to know the implications of the elements and their relationship with the observer. Establishing these semantic relationships -named cognition- is the only way to estimate the actual danger level of an element. Furthermore, only the application of this knowledge allows the generation of coherent, suitable and adjusted responses to deal with any risk faced. The research presented in this thesis summarizes the work done towards translating these human cognitive/reasoning procedures to the field of robotics. More specifically, the work done has been focused on employing human-based methodologies to enable aerial robots to navigate safely. To this effect, human perception, cognition and reaction processes concerning risk management have been experimentally studied; as well as the acquisition and processing of stimuli. How psychological, sociological and anthropological factors modify, balance and give shape to those stimuli has been researched. And finally, the way in which these factors motivate the human behaviour according to different mindsets and priorities has been established. This associative workflow has been reproduced by establishing an equivalent structure and defining similar factors and sources. Besides, all the knowledge obtained experimentally has been applied in the form of algorithms, techniques and strategies which emulate the analogous human behaviours. As a result, a framework capable of understanding and reacting in response to stimuli has been implemented and validated.