Predicting smoking cessation and its relapse in HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.

Morphological aspects of the myocarditis and myositis in Calomys callosus experimentally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi: fibrogenesis and spontaneous regression of fibrosis

Calomys callosus a wild rodent, is a natural host of Trypanosoma cruzi. Twelve C. callosus were infected with 10(5) trypomastigotes of the F strain (a myotropic strain) of T. cruzi. Parasitemia decreased on the 21 st day becoming negative around the 40th day of infection. All animals survived but had positive parasitological tests, until the end of the experiment. The infected animals developed severe inflammation in the myocardium and skeletal muscle. This process was pronounced from the 26 th to the 30th day and gradually subsided from the 50 th day becoming absent or residual on the 64 th day after infection. Collagen was identified by the picro Sirius red method. Fibrogenesis developed early, but regression of fibrosis occurred between the 50th and 64th day. Ultrastructural study disclosed a predominance of macrophages and fibroblasts in the inflammatory infiltrates, with small numbers of lymphocytes. Macrophages had active phagocytosis and showed points of contact with altered muscle cells. Different degrees of matrix expansion were present, with granular and fibrilar deposits and collagen bundles. These alterations subsided by the 64th days. Macrophages seem to be the main immune effector cell in the C. callosus model of infection with T. cruzi. The mechanisms involved in the rapid fibrogenesis and its regression deserve further investigation.

Eficàcia predictiva de l’HCR-20 i del PCL:SV en contexts institucionals

L’estudi es dirigeix a avaluar la capacitat predictiva sobre la violència dels instruments de judici clínic estructurat, amb una metodologia que aporti resultats comparables a estudis de l’àmbit internacional. La investigació es va portar a terme en un hospital civil de salut mental i la mostra està composta per 114 pacients de les unitats de crònics i subaguts. A l’avaluació inicial, l’HCR-20, el PCL:SV i el Protocol 7 van ser els instruments utilitzats per a la recollida d’informació de les variables predictors. La variable depenent o resultat va ser registrada prospectivament per part de l’equip d’infermeria amb un instrument observacional de fàcil ús, el MOAS. Mitjançant índexs de correlació, càlcul de riscos relatius, i anàlisis de regressió logística i corbes ROC va ser possible conèixer que l’HCR-20 i el PCL-SV són mesures vàlides per a la predicció de la violència intrahospitalària en el curt i mig termini en una mostra espanyola de persones amb malaltia mental severa. L’HCR-20 i particularment els ítems clínics van ser els millors predictors de la violència física envers a persones i objectes. Tant la puntuació numèrica de l’HCR-20 com el judici clínic estructurat van demostrar una precisió predictiva alta i comparable a l'obtinguda amb la versió original de l'instrument. El PCL:SV va arribar una precisió predictiva moderada que va anar disminuint al llarg del seguiment. Altres factors de risc com les agressions o la ira prèvies a l’avaluació també van augmentar significativament el risc de violència durant l’any de seguiment.

Variable phenotypic expressivity in a Swiss family with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to mutation T494m in the Prpf3 gene

Purpose:to describe the clinical features in a five generations family segregating autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa and to identify the causative gene Patient and Methods:Twenty five individuals of a large five-generation family originating from Western Switzerland were ascertained for phenotypic and genotypic characterization. Ophthalmologic evaluations included color vision testing, Goldman perimetry and digital fundus photography. Some patients had autofluorescence (AF) imaging, ocular coherence tomography (OCT) and ISCEV-standard full-field electroretinography (ERG). Blood samples were collected from 10 affected (4 to 70 years of age) and 15 unaffected members after informed consent. DNA was isolated and exons and intron-exons junctions of known adRP genes were sequenced using a Big Dye sequencing kit 1.1. Results:Age of onset of nightblindness and severity of progression of the disease was variable between members of the family. Some patients had early onset of nightblindess aged 3, others at mid-twenties. Most patients had visual acuity above 0.6 for the first 4 decades. Two older patients still had good vision (0.4) in their seventies. Myopia (range: -2 to -5) was noticed in most affected subjects. Fundus findings showed areas of atrophy along the arcades. The AF imaging showed a large high density ring bilaterally. A T494M change was found in exon 11 of PRPF3 gene. The change segregates with the disease in the family. Conclusion: A mutation in the PRPF3 gene is rare compared with other genes causing ADRP. Although a T494M change has been reported, our family is the first one with a variable expressivity. Mutations in PRPF3 gene can cause a variable phenotype of ADRP unlike the previously described Danish and English families. Our report gives a better understanding as to the phenotype/genotype description of ADRP due to PRPF3 mutation.

Personality, psychosocial and health-related predictors of quality of life in old age.

OBJECTIVES: Beyond its well-documented association with depressive symptoms across the lifespan, at an individual level, quality of life may be determined by multiple factors: psychosocial characteristics, current physical health and long-term personality traits. METHOD: Quality of life was assessed in two distinct community-based age groups (89 young adults aged 36.2 ± 6.3 and 92 older adults aged 70.4 ± 5.5 years), each group equally including adults with and without acute depressive symptoms. Regression models were applied to explore the association between quality of life assessed with the World Health Organization Quality of Life - Bref (WHOQOL-Bref) and depression severity, education, social support, physical illness, as well as personality dimensions as defined by the Five-Factor Model. RESULTS: In young age, higher quality of life was uniquely associated with lower severity of depressive symptoms. In contrast, in old age, higher quality of life was related to both lower levels of depressive mood and of physical illness. In this age group, a positive association was also found between quality of life and higher levels of Openness to experience and Agreeableness personality dimensions. CONCLUSION: Our data indicated that, in contrast to young cohorts, where acute depression is the main determinant of poor quality of life, physical illness and personality dimensions represent additional independent predictors of this variable in old age. This observation points to the need for concomitant consideration of physical and psychological determinants of quality of life in old age.

Comparative Histopathology of Biomphalaria glabrata, B. tenagophila and B. straminea with Variable Degrees of Resistance to Schistosoma mansoni Miracidia

A comparative histopathological study of three snails species - Biomphalaria glabrata, B. tenagophila and B. straminea - which had been infected with Schistosoma mansoni miracidia revealed similar qualitative features, consisting of areas of sporocyst proliferation and differentiation associated with reactive host reaction, at the time they were actively eliminating great number of cercariae. However, in specimens that were exposed to miracidia but failed to eliminate cercariae later on, different histopathological pictures were observed in different snail species. While B. glabrata exhibited frequent focal (granulomatous) proliferation of amebocytes in several organs, B. tenagophila and B. straminea only rarely showed such reactive changes, suggesting that the mechanism of resistance to miracidial infection probably follows different pathways in the snail species studied

Two monoclonal rat antibodies with specificity for the beta-chain variable region V beta 6 of the murine T-cell receptor.

Two rat monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), 44-22-1 and 46-6B5, which recognize an alloreactive cytotoxic clone, 3F9, have been further tested on a panel of T hybridomas and cytotoxic T-cell clones for binding and functional activities. The mAbs recognized only those cells sharing the expression of the T-cell receptor beta-chain variable region gene V beta 6 with 3F9. All V beta 6+ cells were activated by these mAbs under cross-linking conditions and their antigen-specific activation was blocked by soluble mAb. Furthermore, depletion of 46-6B5+ normal lymph node T cells eliminated all cells expressing the epitope recognized by 44-22-1 and V beta 6 mRNA.

Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

Adolescent substance-use assessment: methodological issues in the use of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD).

During the past twenty years, various instruments have been developed for the assessment of substance use in adolescents, mainly in the United States. However, few of them have been adapted to, and validated in, French-speaking populations. Consequently, although increasing alcohol and drug use among teenagers has become a major concern, the various health and social programs developed in response to this specific problem have received little attention with regard to follow-up and outcome assessment. A standardized multidimensional assessment instrument adapted for adolescents is needed to assess the individual needs of adolescents and assign them to the most appropriate treatment setting, to provide a single measurement within and across health and social systems, and to conduct treatment outcome evaluations. Moreover, having an available instrument makes it possible to develop longitudinal and transcultural research studies. For this reason, a French version of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) was developed and validated at the University Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Clinic in Lausanne, Switzerland. This article aims to discuss the methodological issues that we faced when using the ADAD instrument in a 4-year longitudinal study including adolescent substance users. Methodological aspects relating to the content and format of the instrument, the assessment administration and the statistical analyses are discussed.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.