Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

Saloplastic membranes as green devices for soft tissue regeneration

Implantable devices must exhibit mechanical properties similar to native tissues to promote appropriate cellular behavior and regeneration. Herein, we report a new membrane manufacture method based on the synthesis of polyelectrolyte complexes (PECs) that exhibit saloplasticity, i.e. variable physical-chemistry using salt as a plasticizer. This is a Green Chemistry approach, as PECs generate structures that are stabilized solely by reversible electrostatic interactions, avoiding the use of harmful crosslinkers completely. Furthermore, natural polyelectrolytes - chitosan and alginate - were used. Upon mixing them, membranes were obtained by drying the PECs at 37ºC, yielding compact PECs without resorting to organicsolvents. The plasticizing effect of salt after synthesis was shown by measuring tensile mechanical properties, which were lower when samples were immersed in high ionic strength solutions.Salt was also used during membrane synthesis in different quan- tities (0 M, 0.15 M and 0.5 M in NaCl) yielding structures with no significant differences in morphology and degradation (around 15% after 3 months in lysozyme). However, swelling was higher (about 10x) when synthesized in the presence of salt. In vitro cell studies using L929 fibroblasts showed that cells adhered and proliferated preferentially in membranes fabricated in the presence of salt (i.e. the membranes with lower tensile strength). Structures with physical-chemical properties controlled with precision open a path to tissue engineering strategies depending on fine tuning mechanical properties and cellular adhesion simply by changing ionic strength during membrane manufacture

Production of mexican brown macroalgae fucoidan and fucosidases under an integral green technology bioproceses by the biorefinery concept

Marine ecosystem can be considered a rather exploited source of natural substances with enormous bioactive potential. In Mexico macro-algae study remain forgotten for research and economic purposes besides the high amount of this resource along the west and east coast. For that reason the Bioferinery Group of the Autonomous University of Coahuila, have been studying the biorefinery concept in order to recover high value byproducts of Mexican brown macro-algae including polysaccharides and enzymes to be applied in food, pharmaceutical and energy industry. Brown macroalgae are an important source of fucoidan, alginate and laminarin which comprise a complex group of macromolecules with a wide range of important biological properties such as anticoagulant, antioxidant, antitumoral and antiviral and also as rich source of fermentable sugars for enzymes production. Additionally, specific enzymes able to degrade algae matrix (fucosidases, sulfatases, aliginases, etc) are important tools to establish structural characteristics and biological functions of these polysaccharides. The aims of the present work were the integral study of bioprocess for macroalgae biomass exploitation by the use of green technologies as hydrothermal extraction and solid state fermentation in order to produce polysaccharides and enzymes (fucoidan and fucoidan hydrolytic enzymes). This work comprises the use of the different bioprocess phases in order to produce high value products with lower time and wastes.

Life cycle analysis of zero waste management for Jonggol green city

A Zero waste management is believed to be one of methods to gain sustainability in urban areas. Take advantages of resources as enough as the needs and process it until the last part to be wasted is a contribution to take care the environment for the next generation. Reduce, reuse, and recycle are three simplesactivities which are until nowadays consideredas the back bone of zero waste. Jonggolgreen city is a new urban area in Indonesia with a 100 ha of surface area zoned as education tourism area. It is an independent area with pure natural resources of water, air, and land to be managed and protected. It is planned as green city through zero waste management since2013. In this preliminary period, a monitoring tool is being prepared by applying a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) for urban areas [1]. This paper will present an explanatory assessment ofthe zero waste management for Jonggolgreen city. The existing situation will be examined through LCA and afterwards,the new program and the proposed green design to gain the next level of zero waste will be discussed. The purpose is to track the persistence of the commitment and the perception of the necessary innovationsin order to achieve the ideal behavior level of LCA.

Exploring chemical conversions in metabolic networks by tracing atoms transitions

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioinformática

Towards "green" smart materials for force and strain sensors: The case of polyaniline

Stress/strain sensors constitute a class of devices with a global ever-growing market thanks to their use in many fields of modern life. They are typically constituted by thin metal foils deposited on flexible supports. However, the low inherent resistivity and limited flexibility of their constituents make them inadequate for several applications, such as measuring large movements in robotic systems and biological tissues. As an alternative to the traditional compounds, in the present work we will show the advantages to employ a smart material, polyaniline (PANI), prepared by an innovative environmentally friendly route, for force/strain sensor applications wherein simple processing, environmental friendliness and sensitivity are particularly required.

Reconstructing transcriptional regulatory networks using data integration and text mining

Transcriptional Regulatory Networks (TRNs) are powerful tool for representing several interactions that occur within a cell. Recent studies have provided information to help researchers in the tasks of building and understanding these networks. One of the major sources of information to build TRNs is biomedical literature. However, due to the rapidly increasing number of scientific papers, it is quite difficult to analyse the large amount of papers that have been published about this subject. This fact has heightened the importance of Biomedical Text Mining approaches in this task. Also, owing to the lack of adequate standards, as the number of databases increases, several inconsistencies concerning gene and protein names and identifiers are common. In this work, we developed an integrated approach for the reconstruction of TRNs that retrieve the relevant information from important biological databases and insert it into a unique repository, named KREN. Also, we applied text mining techniques over this integrated repository to build TRNs. However, was necessary to create a dictionary of names and synonyms associated with these entities and also develop an approach that retrieves all the abstracts from the related scientific papers stored on PubMed, in order to create a corpora of data about genes. Furthermore, these tasks were integrated into @Note, a software system that allows to use some methods from the Biomedical Text Mining field, including an algorithms for Named Entity Recognition (NER), extraction of all relevant terms from publication abstracts, extraction relationships between biological entities (genes, proteins and transcription factors). And finally, extended this tool to allow the reconstruction Transcriptional Regulatory Networks through using scientific literature.

Artificial neural networks in diagnosis of liver diseases

Liver diseases have severe patients’ consequences, being one of the main causes of premature death. These facts reveal the centrality of one`s daily habits, and how important it is the early diagnosis of these kind of illnesses, not only to the patients themselves, but also to the society in general. Therefore, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis support system to these kind of maladies, built under a formal framework based on Logic Programming, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, complemented with an approach to computing grounded on Artificial Neural Networks.

Logic programming and artificial neural networks in breast cancer detection

About 90% of breast cancers do not cause or are capable of producing death if detected at an early stage and treated properly. Indeed, it is still not known a specific cause for the illness. It may be not only a beginning, but also a set of associations that will determine the onset of the disease. Undeniably, there are some factors that seem to be associated with the boosted risk of the malady. Pondering the present study, different breast cancer risk assessment models where considered. It is our intention to develop a hybrid decision support system under a formal framework based on Logic Programming for knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks, to evaluate the risk of developing breast cancer and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such a happening.

Green composites for advanced technical applications

This paper provides an overview of properties and application of natural fibre composites. Natural fibre market, merits and demerits, surface treatment techniques, properties of some recently developed natural fibre composites and applications have been discussed.

User expectations for media sharing practices in open display networks

Open Display Networks have the potential to allow many content creators to publish their media to an open-ended set of screen displays. However, this raises the issue of how to match that content to the right displays. In this study, we aim to understand how the perceived utility of particular media sharing scenarios is affected by three independent variables, more specifically: (a) the locativeness of the content being shared; (b) how personal that content is and (c) the scope in which it is being shared. To assess these effects, we composed a set of 24 media sharing scenarios embedded with different treatments of our three independent variables. We then asked 100 participants to express their perception of the relevance of those scenarios. The results suggest a clear preference for scenarios where content is both local and directly related to the person that is publishing it. This is in stark contrast to the types of content that are commonly found in public displays, and confirms the opportunity that open displays networks may represent a new media for self-expression. This novel understanding may inform the design of new publication paradigms that will enable people to share media across the display networks.

A hybrid MAC Scheme to improve the transmission performance in body sensor networks

Wireless body sensor networks (WBSNs) constitute a key technology for closing the loop between patients and healthcare providers, as WBSNs provide sensing ability, as well as mobility and portability, essential characteristics for wide acceptance of wireless healthcare technology. However, one important and difficult aspect of WBSNs is to provide data transmissions with quality of service, among other factors due to the antennas being small size and placed close to the body. Such transmissions cannot be fully provided without the assumption of a MAC protocol that solves the problems of the medium sharing. A vast number of MAC protocols conceived for wireless networks are based on random or scheduled schemes. This paper studies firstly the suitability of two MAC protocols, one using CSMA and the other TDMA, to transmit directly to the base station the signals collected continuously from multiple sensor nodes placed on the human body. Tests in a real scenario show that the beaconed TDMA MAC protocol presents an average packet loss ratio lower than CSMA. However, the average packet loss ratio is above 1.0 %. To improve this performance, which is of vital importance in areas such as e-health and ambient assisted living, a hybrid TDMA/CSMA scheme is proposed and tested in a real scenario with two WBSNs and four sensor nodes per WBSN. An average packet loss ratio lower than 0.2 % was obtained with the hybrid scheme. To achieve this significant improvement, the hybrid scheme uses a lightweight algorithm to control dynamically the start of the superframes. Scalability and traffic rate variation tests show that this strategy allows approximately ten WBSNs operating simultaneously without significant performance degradation.

Concurrency detection on finish-to-start activity precedence networks

We explore the finish-to-start precedence relations of project activities used in scheduling problems. From these relations, we devise a method to identify groups of activities that could execute concurrently, i.e. activities in the same group can all execute in parallel. The method derives a new set of relations to describe the concurrency. Then, it is represented by an undirected graph and the maximal cliques problem identifies the groups. We provide a running example with a project from our previous studies in resource constrained project cost minimization together with an example application on the concurrency detection method: the evaluation of the resource stress.