Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Post-crisis regulatory reforms and bank performance: lessons from Asia

Based on a large dataset from eight Asian economies, we test the impact of post-crisis regulatory reforms on the performance of depository institutions in countries at different levels of financial development. We allow for technological heterogeneity and estimate a set of country-level stochastic cost frontiers followed by a deterministic bootstrapped meta-frontier to evaluate cost efficiency and cost technology. Our results support the view that liberalization policies have a positive impact on bank performance, while the reverse is true for prudential regulation policies. The removal of activities restrictions, bank privatization and foreign bank entry have a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. In contrast, prudential policies, which aim to protect the banking sector from excessive risk-taking, tend to adversely affect banks cost efficiency but not cost technology.

The impact of deregulation and re-regulation on bank efficiency: evidence from Asia

Following the 1997 crisis, banking sector reforms in Asia have been characterised by the emphasis on prudential regulation, associated with increased financial liberalisation. Using a panel data set of commercial banks from eight major Asian economies over the period 2001-2010, this study explores how the coexistence of liberalisation and prudential regulation affects banks’ cost characteristics. Given the presence of heterogeneity of technologies across countries, we use a stochastic frontier approach followed by the estimation of a deterministic meta-frontier to provide ‘true’ estimates of bank cost efficiency measures. Our results show that the liberalization of bank interest rates and the increase in foreign banks' presence have had a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. On the other hand, we find that prudential regulation might adversely affect bank cost performance. When designing an optimal regulatory framework, policy makers should combine policies which aim to foster financial stability without hindering financial intermediation.

Lines of heavy elements and Fe II in the UV of CS 31082-001

The abundance of heavy r-elements may provide a better understanding of the r-process, and the determination of several reference r-elements should allow a better determination of a star`s age. The space UV region (lambda < 3000 angstrom) presents a large number of lines of the heavy elements, and in the case of some elements, such as Bi, Pt, Au, detectable lines are not available elsewhere. The extreme ""r-process star"" CS 31082-001 ([Fe/H] = -2.9) was observed in the space UV to determine abundances of the heaviest stable elements, using STIS on board Hubble Space Telescope.

Searching for s-Process-Enhanced Metal-Poor Stars

We present preliminary results for the estimation of barium [Ba/Fe], and strontium [Sr/Fe], abundances ratios using medium-resolution spectra (1-2 angstrom). We established a calibration between the abundance ratios and line indices for Ba and Sr, using multiple regression and artificial neural network techniques. A comparison between the two techniques (showing the advantage of the latter), as well as a discussion of future work, is presented.

Modularity and robustness of bone networks

Cortical bones, essential for mechanical support and structure in many animals, involve a large number of canals organized in intricate fashion. By using state-of-the art image analysis and computer graphics, the 3D reconstruction of a whole bone (phalange) of a young chicken was obtained and represented in terms of a complex network where each canal was associated to an edge and every confluence of three or more canals yielded a respective node. The representation of the bone canal structure as a complex network has allowed several methods to be applied in order to characterize and analyze the canal system organization and the robustness. First, the distribution of the node degrees (i.e. the number of canals connected to each node) confirmed previous indications that bone canal networks follow a power law, and therefore present some highly connected nodes (hubs). The bone network was also found to be partitioned into communities or modules, i.e. groups of nodes which are more intensely connected to one another than with the rest of the network. We verified that each community exhibited distinct topological properties that are possibly linked with their specific function. In order to better understand the organization of the bone network, its resilience to two types of failures (random attack and cascaded failures) was also quantified comparatively to randomized and regular counterparts. The results indicate that the modular structure improves the robustness of the bone network when compared to a regular network with the same average degree and number of nodes. The effects of disease processes (e. g., osteoporosis) and mutations in genes (e.g., BMP4) that occur at the molecular level can now be investigated at the mesoscopic level by using network based approaches.

Identifying the borders of mathematical knowledge

Based on a divide and conquer approach, knowledge about nature has been organized into a set of interrelated facts, allowing a natural representation in terms of graphs: each `chunk` of knowledge corresponds to a node, while relationships between such chunks are expressed as edges. This organization becomes particularly clear in the case of mathematical theorems, with their intense cross-implications and relationships. We have derived a web of mathematical theorems from Wikipedia and, thanks to the powerful concept of entropy, identified its more central and frontier elements. Our results also suggest that the central nodes are the oldest theorems, while the frontier nodes are those recently added to the network. The network communities have also been identified, allowing further insights about the organization of this network, such as its highly modular structure.

Polymethine cyanine dyes in beta-cyclodextrin solution: multiple equilibria and chemical oxidation

Absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy, electrochemical techniques, and semiempirical calculations were employed to characterize the multiple complexation equilibria between two polymethine cyanine dyes (IR-786 and Indocyanine green-ICG, 5) and beta-cyclodextrin (beta-CD, L), as well as the chemical reactivity of the complexed and uncomplexed species against the oxidizing agents hypochlorite (HC) and hydrogen peroxide (HP). IR-786 dimerization is favored with the increase in beta-CD concentration in the form of (SL)(2) complexes. In the case of ICG, free dimers (D) and SL complexes are favored. Both IR-786 and ICG react and discolor in the presence of HC and HP. For IR-786, the reaction with HP and HC proceeds with observed rate constants of 10(-3) and 0.28 s(-1) and second-order rate constants (k(2)) of similar to 10(-3) and 10(4) M(-1) s(-1), respectively. The intermediate species observed in the bleaching reactions of IR-786 and ICG were shown, by cyclic voltammetry and VIS absorption, to result from one electron oxidation. IR-786 complexed with beta-CD is protected against bleaching in the presence of HP and HC by factors of 20 and 4, respectively. This protection was not observed in ICG complexes. Superdelocalizability profile of both dyes and frontier orbital analysis indicates that beta-CD does not protect ICG from oxidation by HP or HC, whereas the 2:2 IR-786/beta-Cd complex is able to avoid the oxidation of IR-786. We concluded that the decrease in the chemical reactivity of the dyes against oxidant agents in the presence of beta-CD is due to the formation of (SL)(2) complexes. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A quantum chemical study on a set of non-imidazole H(3) antihistamine molecules

Molecular orbital calculations were carried out on a set of 28 non-imidazole H(3) antihistamine compounds using the Hartree-Fock method in order to investigate the possible relationships between electronic structural properties and binding affinity for H3 receptors (pK(i)). It was observed that the frontier effective-for-reaction molecular orbital (FERMO) energies were better correlated with pK(i) values than highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy values. Exploratory data analysis through hierarchical cluster (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) showed a separation of the compounds in two sets, one grouping the molecules with high pK(i) values, the other gathering low pK(i) value compounds. This separation was obtained with the use of the following descriptors: FERMO energies (epsilon(FERMO)), charges derived from the electrostatic potential on the nitrogen atom (N(1)), electronic density indexes for FERMO on the N(1) atom (Sigma((FERMO))c(i)(2)). and electrophilicity (omega`). These electronic descriptors were used to construct a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model through the partial least-squares (PLS) method with three principal components. This model generated Q(2) = 0.88 and R(2) = 0.927 values obtained from a training set and external validation of 23 and 5 molecules, respectively. After the analysis of the PLS regression equation and the values for the selected electronic descriptors, it is suggested that high values of FERMO energies and of Sigma((FERMO))c(i)(2), together with low values of electrophilicity and pronounced negative charges on N(1) appear as desirable properties for the conception of new molecules which might have high binding affinity. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protecting Your Search Privacy: A Lesson Plan

Each year search engines like Google, Bing and Yahoo, complete trillions of search queries online. Students are especially dependent on these search tools because of their popularity, convenience and accessibility. However, what students are unaware of, by choice or naiveté is the amount of personal information that is collected during each search session, how that data is used and who is interested in their online behavior profile. Privacy policies are frequently updated in favor of the search companies but are lengthy and often are perused briefly or ignored entirely with little thought about how personal web habits are being exploited for analytics and marketing. As an Information Literacy instructor, and a member of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, I believe in the importance of educating college students and web users in general that they have a right to privacy online. Class discussions on the topic of web privacy have yielded an interesting perspective on internet search usage. Students are unaware of how their online behavior is recorded and have consistently expressed their hesitancy to use tools that disguise or delete their IP address because of the stigma that it may imply they have something to hide or are engaging in illegal activity. Additionally, students fear they will have to surrender the convenience of uber connectivity in their applications to maintain their privacy. The purpose of this lightning presentation is to provide educators with a lesson plan highlighting and simplifying the privacy terms for the three major search engines, Google, Bing and Yahoo. This presentation focuses on what data these search engines collect about users, how that data is used and alternative search solutions, like DuckDuckGo, for increased privacy. Students will directly benefit from this lesson because informed internet users can protect their data, feel safer online and become more effective web searchers.

The insurance function of contracts

One of the central problems in contract law is to define the frontier between legal and illegal breaches of promises. The distinction between good and bad faith is perhaps the conceptual tool most commonly used to tell one from the other. Lawyers spend a lot of energy trying to frame better definitions of the concepts of good and bad faith based on principles of ethics or justice, but often pay much less attention to theories dealing with the incentives that can engender good faith behavior in contractual relationships. By describing the economics of what Stiglitz defined as “explicit” and “implicit” insurance, I highlight the “insurance function” hidden in any promise with basically no mathematical notation. My aim is to render the subject intelligible and useful to lawyers with little familiarity with economics.

A evolução da produtividade total de fatores na economia brasileira: uma análise do período pós-real

A presente pesquisa aplica o modelo de fronteira estocástica de produção para as indústrias de transformação e da construção civil, assim como para o comércio e os serviços no Brasil, de forma a identificar as fontes de crescimento dos principais setores de atividade da economia brasileira, quais sejam: acumulação de capital físico, emprego da mão-de-obra, e produtividade total de fatores (PTF). Conforme Kumbhakar (2000), a evolução da PTF é decomposta em progresso técnico, mudanças da eficiência técnica, mudanças da eficiência alocativa e efeitos de escala. O estudo parte de dados de 1996 a 2000 das principais pesquisas anuais do IBGE realizadas com firmas: PAIC, PIA, PAC e PAS.

Os desafios à implantação do modelo de gestão dos recursos hídricos estabelecidos pela lei 9.4333

This article objectified to identify the main challenges to the implementation of the system of management of the water features established by Law 9.433/97, in special the restrictive factors to the installation of Committees of Basin and Hidric Resources Agencies and the challenges to the implementation and management of the basin plans, of the charge and the grant for the hydric resources uses. The analysis is based in the South Paraiba river case, beyond the experience in other countries. The reflections on the gotten information had led to the conclusion of that the magnifying and change of the institucional base of decision, the integration of the entities of water features, the institucional qualification and technique, the social mobilization, the decentralization of the financial features, the integration of the management in frontier basins and the implementation of management systems based in the consensus are the biggest challenges to the execulte of the federal law.