Do more decentralized local governments do better? an evaluation of the 2001 decentralization reform in Colombia

In this paper I evaluate the impact of the 2001 decentralization reform in Colombia. I use data from Colombia's municipalities. I look at the effect of the 2001 reform on enrolment in pre-college schools. While all municipalities received earnmarked national transfers, withthe reform some of then now have more responsabilities to provide education (deeper decen-tralization) than others. Particulary important, the reform entitle the more decentralizedmunicipalities to sign subsidy contracts with private school. Departments (the regional gov-ernments) are entitle to sign this type of contracts for the less decentralized municipalities.Since the rule for municipalities to receive more responsabilities follows and exogenous popu-lation threshold, I can implement Regression Discontinuity Design. Enrolment is measuredthrough two variables: the number of students enroled in public schools and the number of subsidized students enroled in private schools. Results sugest that more decentralized mu-nicipalities subsidize more students in private schools. The difference is significant at all thelevels of pre-college school for the period 2004-2006. In 2005, the difference accounts for20% of enrolment in private schools and 3% of population of school age. Besides, there are not significant differences among municipalities regarding enrolment in public schools.

International propagation of shocks: an evaluation of contagion effects for some Latin American countries

In this paper we analyze the spread of shocks across assets markets in eight Latin American countries. First, we measure the extent of markets reactions with the Principal Components Analysis. And second, we investigate the volatility of assets markets based in ARCH-GARCH models in function of the principal components retained in the first stage. Our results do not support the existence of financial contagion, but of interdependence in most of the cases and a slight increase in the sensibility of markets to recent shocks.

The survival advantage of milk and dairy consumption: An overview of evidence from cohort studies of vascular diseases, diabetes and cancer

Objectives: To conduct it detailed evaluation, with meta-analyses, of the published evidence on milk and dairy consumption and the incidence of vascular diseases and diabetes. Also to summarise the evidence on milk and dairy consumption and cancer reported by the World Cancer Research Fund and then to consider the relevance of milk and dairy consumption to survival in the UK, a typical Western community. Finally, published evidence on relationships with whole milk and fat-reduced milks was examined. Methods: Prospective cohort studies of vascular disease and diabetes with baseline data on milk or dairy consumption and a relevant disease outcome were identified by searching MEDLINE, and reference lists in the relevant published reports. Meta-analyses of relationships in these reports were conducted. The likely effect of milk and dairy consumption on survival was then considered, taking into account the results of published overviews of relationships of these foods with cancer. Results: From meta-analysis of 15 studies the relative risk of stroke and/or heart disease in subjects with high milk or dairy consumption was 0.84 (95% CI 0.76, 0,93) and 0.79 (0.75, 0.82) respectively, relative to the risk in those with low consumption. Four studies reported incident diabetes as an outcome, and the relative risk in the Subjects with the highest intake of milk or diary foods was 0.92 (0.86, 0.97). Conclusions: Set against the proportion of total deaths attributable to the life-threatening diseases in the UK, vascular disease, diabetes and cancer, the results of meta-analyses provide evidence of an overall survival advantage from the consumption of milk and dairy foods.

An evaluation of the use of Cottonseed cake in the diet of growing pigs

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of including cottonseed cake in rations for weaned growing pigs. Thirty-two Landrace x Large White pigs, weighing 20-24 kg, were included in four blocks formed on the basis of initial weight within sex in an otherwise completely randomized block design. The pigs were killed when they reached a live weight of 75.0 +/- 2.0 kg and the half careases were analysed into cuts and the weights of the organs were recorded. An estimate of the productivity of the pigs on each diet was calculated. Cottonseed cake reduced the voluntary feed intake (p < 0.001) and live weight gains (p < 0.001) and increased the heart, kidney and liver weights (p < 0.01). The pigs on the soya bean-based control diet took the shortest time to reach slaughter weight. The result was probably in part due to lysine deficiency and in part to the effect of free gossypol. It was found that it is at present cost-effective to include cottonseed cake in pig weaner grower diets up to 300 g/kg in Cameroon.

An evaluation of a Bayesian method of dose escalation based on bivariate binary responses

Recently, various approaches have been suggested for dose escalation studies based on observations of both undesirable events and evidence of therapeutic benefit. This article concerns a Bayesian approach to dose escalation that requires the user to make numerous design decisions relating to the number of doses to make available, the choice of the prior distribution, the imposition of safety constraints and stopping rules, and the criteria by which the design is to be optimized. Results are presented of a substantial simulation study conducted to investigate the influence of some of these factors on the safety and the accuracy of the procedure with a view toward providing general guidance for investigators conducting such studies. The Bayesian procedures evaluated use logistic regression to model the two responses, which are both assumed to be binary. The simulation study is based on features of a recently completed study of a compound with potential benefit to patients suffering from inflammatory diseases of the lung.

An evaluation of Bayesian designs for dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures previously proposed for dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers are reviewed and evaluated. Modifications are made to the expression of the prior distribution in order to make the procedure simpler to implement and a more relevant criterion for optimality is introduced. The results of an extensive simulation exercise to establish the proper-ties of the procedure and to aid choice between designs are summarized, and the way in which readers can use simulation to choose a design for their own trials is described. The influence of the value of the within-subject correlation on the procedure is investigated and the use of a simple prior to reflect uncertainty about the correlation is explored. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

Synthesis and biological in vitro evaluation of novel PEG-psoralen conjugates

Psoralens are well-known photosensitizers, and 8- methoxypsoralen and 4,5',8-trimethylpsoralen are widely used in photomedicine as "psoralens plus UVA therapy" (PUVA), in photopheresis, and in sterilization of blood preparations. In an attempt to improve the therapeutic efficiency of PUVA therapy and photopheresis, four poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG)-psoralen conjugates were synthesized to promote tumor targeting by the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect. Peptide linkers were used to exploit specific enzymatic cleavage by lysosomal proteases. A new psoralen, 4-hydroxymethyl-4', 8-dimethylpsoralen (6), suitable for polymer conjugation was synthesized. The hydroxy group allowed exploring different strategies for PEG conjugation, and linkages with different stability such ester or urethanes were obtained. PEG (5 kDa) was covalently conjugated to the new psoralen derivative using four different linkages, namely, (i) direct ester bond (7), (ii) ester linkage with a peptide spacer (8), (iii) a carbamic linker (9), and (iv) a carbamic linker with a peptide spacer (12). The stability of these new conjugates was assessed at different pHs, in plasma and following incubation with cathepsin B. Conjugates 7 and 8 were rapidly hydrolyzed in plasma, while 9 was stable in buffer and in the presence of cathepsin B. As expected, only the conjugates containing the peptide linker released the drug in presence of cathepsin B. In vitro evaluation of the cytotoxic activity in the presence and absence of light was carried out in two cell lines (MCF-7 and A375 cells). Conjugates 7 and 8 displayed a similar activity to the free drug (probably due to the low stability of the ester linkage). Interestingly, the conjugates containing the carbamate linkage (9 and 12) were completely inactive in the dark (IC50 > 100 mu M in both cell lines). However, antiproliferative activity become apparent after UV irradiation. Conjugate 12 appears to be the most promising for future in vivo evaluation, since it was relatively stable in plasma, which should allow tumor targeting and drug release to occur by cathepsin B-mediated hydrolysis.

Brief cognitive behavioural therapy for extreme shape concern: an evaluation

Objectives. This study was designed to evaluate a new brief cognitive-behavioural intervention to reduce concerns about body shape. Design. Women with high levels of shape concern (N = 50) were randomly assigned to cognitive behaviour therapy or applied relaxation (AR). Baseline assessments were made and then women received their treatment immediately after this assessment, ('immediate' treatment) or 5 weeks after this assessment, during which time no treatment was given ('delayed' treatment, DT). Methods. Shape concern and related cognitions and emotions were assessed at baseline, post-treatment and at 4 and 12 week follow-up (FU). Results. Immediate treatment was superior to DT in reducing shape concerns, and this difference was maintained at 4 week FU. The cognitive behavioural intervention was more effective than AR in changing shape concern and this difference was largely maintained for 3 months. Conclusions. These initial findings support the further investigation of this brief intervention.

Uncertainty and feasibility studies: an Italian case study

Uncertainty affects all aspects of the property market but one area where the impact of uncertainty is particularly significant is within feasibility analyses. Any development is impacted by differences between market conditions at the conception of the project and the market realities at the time of completion. The feasibility study needs to address the possible outcomes based on an understanding of the current market. This requires the appraiser to forecast the most likely outcome relating to the sale price of the completed development, the construction costs and the timing of both. It also requires the appraiser to understand the impact of finance on the project. All these issues are time sensitive and analysis needs to be undertaken to show the impact of time to the viability of the project. The future is uncertain and a full feasibility analysis should be able to model the upside and downside risk pertaining to a range of possible outcomes. Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value but they tend to be single point analysis based upon a single set of “likely” inputs. In this paper we look at the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball ©) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian Municipality. This allows the appraiser to address the issues of uncertainty involved and thus provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a “two-dimensional technique” to distinguish between “uncertainty” and “variability” and thus create a more robust model.

An evaluation of the performance of UK real estate forecasters

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.