Light and shadows in Europe’s new Action Plan for Capital Markets Union. ECMI Commentary No. 40/5 October 2015

The European Commission’s Action Plan consists, in a nutshell, of a short list of technical proposals and a longer one of (rather general) potential actions. Overall, the plan indeed proposes to achieve some short-term objectives, such as a reduction of listing costs for SMEs, but it lacks long-term vision. The plan bundles actions under rather generic objectives of long-term finance or cross-border investing. Improving the informational infrastructure (e.g. accounting standards, company data) and cross-border enforcement of rules is left to vaguely defined future actions, but these constitute the core of the capital markets infrastructure. Without a well-defined set of measurable objectives, the whole plan may lose political momentum and become an opportunity for interested parties to cherry pick their pet provisions. Building a single market, i.e. removing cross-border obstacles to capital circulation, is too challenging a task to simply appear as one of many items on a long list of general objectives, which incidentally do not include institutional reform. The ultimate risk is that the Commission may just miss a unique opportunity to revamp and improve the financial integration process in Europe after almost a decade of harmful financial retrenchment.

Carbon Market Provisions in the Paris Agreement (Article 6). CEPS Special Report No. 128/January 2016

The markets provisions, contained in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement adopted in December 2015, can be seen as both a major success and a minor miracle. Throughout 2015, and during COP21 itself, the prediction was for a very small reference to anything related to markets, or possibly even the total omission of any such reference in the text. As predicted, the markets/non-markets text in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (PA) was one of the last issues to be agreed, in the last night of COP21, shortly before the text went to the COP President, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, for final approval and its subsequent release to the delegates for acceptance on 12 December 2015. This paper presents the evolution of the ideas contained in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and how these were captured in textual form in different drafts of the agreement. Understanding the origin of different provisions in the PA, and their evolution, may prove crucial. Losing the institutional memory may lead to attempts, through re-interpretation of the PA, to renegotiate it.

The Importance of Being Earnest: The green economy and sustainable development in China. Asia Policy Brief 2012/02, November 2012

China's past economic development model has not been sustainable, at least in environmental terms. In recent years, the Chinese government has dedicated considerable time, planning energy, policy and rhetoric to "green" issues. However, there is a risk that this trend will be stalled by struggles related to pending economic problems and the upcoming leadership transition. Consequently, the international community should acknowledge China’s achievements in terms of environmental policy and cooperation as one way of serving the global public interest.

The Business Models and Economics of Peer-to-Peer lending. ECRI Research Report No 17, May 2016

This paper reviews peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, its development in the UK and other countries, and assesses the business and economic policy issues surrounding this new form of intermediation. P2P platform technology allows direct matching of borrowers’ and lenders’ diversification over a large number of borrowers without the loans having to be held on an intermediary balance sheet. P2P lending has developed rapidly in both the US and the UK, but it still represents a small fraction, less than 1%, of the stock of bank lending. In the UK – but not elsewhere – it is an important source of loans for smaller companies. We argue that P2P lending is fundamentally complementary to, and not competitive with, conventional banking. We therefore expect banks to adapt to the emergence of P2P lending, either by cooperating closely with third-party P2P lending platforms or offering their own proprietary platforms. We also argue that the full development of the sector requires much further work addressing the risks and business and regulatory issues in P2P lending, including risk communication, orderly resolution of platform failure, control of liquidity risks and minimisation of fraud, security and operational risks. This will depend on developing reliable business processes, the promotion to the full extent possible of transparency and standardisation and appropriate regulation that serves the needs of customers.

Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.

(Table 1) Stable carbon isotope record and calculated recycled DIC for sediment core ANDRA_HTM102

The prominent negative stable carbon isotope excursion in both carbonate and organic carbon recorded in organic-rich sediments deposited during the Toarcian oceanic anoxic event (OAE) has commonly been explained by recycling of 13C-depleted CO2 (the so-called Küspert model). More recently, the massive release of 13C-depleted methane or other forms of 13C-depleted carbon was also proposed to account for the observed negative d13C excursions in organic carbon of terrigenous as well as of marine origin. The occurrence of diagenetic products of the carotenoid isorenieratene (isorenieratane and other aryl isoprenoids) in Toarcian black shales has been regarded as supporting evidence for the Küspert hypothesis as they point to strong stratification of the epicontinental seas. A section of a drill core straddling the Toarcian of the Paris Basin (Cirfontaine-en-Ornois) contained intact isorenieratane, providing evidence that photosynthetic green sulphur bacteria were present at the time of deposition, even prior to the OAE. However, the isorenieratane abundances are very low in the section where the negative d13C excursion in organic carbon and phytane, a chemical fossil derived from chlorophyll, occurs. The abundance of the isorenieratene derivatives increases, once the d13C records have shifted to more positive values. The d13C of isorenieratane (generally circa -13.1 ± 0.5 per mil) indicates that the respired CO2 contribution at the chemocline was low and is thus not likely to be the main cause of the prominent up to 7per mil negative d13C shift recorded in Toarcian organic carbon records.

Body condition indices of Asian green mussels, Perna viridis, from Indonesia

While part of a single country, the Indonesian archipelago covers several biogeographic regions, and the high levels of national shipping likely facilitate transfer of non-native organisms between the different regions. Two vessels of a domestic shipping line appear to have served as a transport vector for the Asian green mussel Perna viridis (Linnaeus, 1758) between regions. This species is indigenous in the western but not in the eastern part of the archipelago, separated historically by the Sunda Shelf. The green mussels collected from the hulls of the ferries when in eastern Indonesia showed a significantly lower body condition index than similar-sized individuals from three different western-Indonesian mussel populations. This was presumably due to reduced food supply during the ships' voyages. Although this transportinduced food shortage may initially limit the invasive potential (through reduced reproductive rates) of the translocated individuals, the risk that the species will extend its distributional range further into eastern Indonesia is high. If the species becomes widely established in eastern Indonesia, there will then be an increased risk of incursions to Australia, where the mussel is listed as a high-priority pest species.

Total organic carbon content and redox-sensitiv trace metal concentrations of selected late Cenoman claystones from DSDP Hole 93-603B

The Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) intervals at DSDP Sites 105 and 603B from the northern part of the proto-North Atlantic show high amplitude, short-term cyclic variations in total organic carbon (TOC) content. The more pronounced changes in TOC are also reflected by changes in lithology from green claystones (TOC<1%) to black claystones (TOC>1%). Although their depositional history was different, the individual TOC cycles at Sites 105 and 603B can be correlated using stable carbon isotope stratigraphy. Sedimentation rates obtained from the isotope stratigraphy and spectral analyses indicate that these cycles were predominately precession controlled. The coinciding variations in HI, OI, delta13Corg and the abundance of marine relative to terrestrial biomarkers, as well as the low abundance of lignin pyrolysis products generated from the kerogen of the black claystones, indicate that these cyclic variations reflect changes in the contribution of marine organic matter (OM). The cooccurrence of lamination, enrichment of redox-sensitive trace metals and presence of molecular fossils of pigments from green sulfur bacteria indicate that the northern proto-North Atlantic Ocean water column was periodically euxinic from the bottom to at least the base of the photic zone (<150 m) during the deposition of the black claystones. In contrast, the green claystones are bioturbated, are enriched in Mn, do not show enrichments in redox-sensitive trace metals and show biomarker distributions indicative of long oxygen exposure times, indicating more oxic water conditions. At the same time, there is evidence (e.g., abundance of biogenic silica and significant 13C-enrichment for OC of phytoplanktic origin) for enhanced primary productivity during the deposition of the black claystones. We propose that increased primary productivity periodically overwhelmed the oxic OM remineralisation potential of the bottom waters resulting in the deposition of OM-rich black claystones. Because the amount of oxygen used for OM remineralisation exceeded the amount supplied by diffusion and deep-water circulation, the northern proto-North Atlantic became euxinic during these periods. Both Sites 105 and 603B show trends of continually increasing TOC contents and HI values of the black claystones up section, which most likely resulted from both enhanced preservation due to increased anoxia and increased production of marine OM during oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE2).

Examining the Impact of Carbon Tariffs on Trade

Anirudh Shingal presents at the joint NCCR Trade Regulation/NCCR Climate Workshop on “Border measures and the PPM issue in the context of climate change”. This presentation explores the possibility of a unilateral tariff increase on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products (identified from literature) from countries non-committed to climate-friendly polices in a bid to push them towards “global” climate policies. The presentation provides a first look at the empirical model to be used as well as the choice of trading partners, carbon-intensive products and the time period. Preliminary statistical analysis undertaken reveals the importance of these products in the trade flows of both importing and exporting countries as well as the existence of low tariffs (on these products) in destination markets.

Monopolistic insurance and competitive financial markets

This dissertation studies the interaction between insurance and financial markets. Individuals who differ only in risk can save through a competitive market. They also have access to insurance contracts offered by a monopolist firm. We show that an equilibrium exists in that economy. Fundamentally, we identify an externality imposed on the insurer's decision by the endogeneity of prices in the financial market.We argue that, because of such externality and in contrast to the pure contract theory case, equilibrium may exhibit pooling.

Carbon credit trading in Brazil: an overview of a new business sector

This article discusses the Carbon Credit Trading Market in Brazil and opportunities for technological development and innovation related. The international trade in carbon credits becomes a source of opportunities for developing countries because of the Clean Development Mechanism. Committed to reduce polluting levels from 2008 to 2012, and ahead, industrialized countries started to seek ecological solutions internally or compensatory actions such as buying carbon credits from low-emission countries. This strategy brought up a brand-new industrial sector that still requires productive structures and a solid international commercialization system. This is a qualitative study, based on documentary research, referring to the Brazilian territory. The data obtained point out a set of efforts such as researching and developing products and processes environment friendly. Other findings indicate opportunities to expand Green Economy Sector through supporting a set of newborn firms such as waste management and recycling, in addition to other actions that reinforce sustainable development opportunities to the country and, at the end, to the world.

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Market Risk Capital Requirements and Credit Supply Interdependence

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Is re-feeding efficiency compromised by prolonged starvation during aestivation in the green striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata?

We examined several morphological parameters of the gastrointestinal tract, digesta passage rates, and nutrient assimilation efficiencies of Green-striped Burrowing frogs (Cyclorana alboguttata) following prolonged fasting during three months of aestivation and compared these with frogs that had been continuously fed. Whole animal digesta passage rates were significantly reduced following three months aestivation as a result of a decreased digesta evacuation rate from the stomach. Furthermore, food was selectively retained in the small intestine for an increased time following three months of aestivation. Overall digestibility of food and nitrogen, carbon, and energy extraction efficiencies were not significantly different from control values following three months of aestivation. These findings suggest that C. alboguttata employs reduced digesta passage rates so as to maximize nutrient assimilation efficiency following prolonged food deprivation during aestivation. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Ovulation and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Incessant ovulation is thought to be one of the primary causes of epithelial ovarian cancer. However, the effects of ovulation at different ages and of the various exposures or events that suppress ovulation have not been established. We used data from an Australian case-control study of 791 ovarian cancer cases and 853 controls to examine the effect of ovulation on ovarian cancer risk. The total number of lifetime ovulations was calculated using information provided in a monthly contraceptive/reproductive calendar, as well as incorporating other information such as average menstrual cycle length. An increase of I year's worth of ovulation was associated with a 6% increase in risk of ovarian cancer (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-8%). Ovulations in the 20-29-year age group were associated with the greatest risk, with a 20% increase in risk associated with each year of ovulation during this age period (95% Cl = 13-26%). When the effects of different exposures that suppress ovulation were compared, there was an indication that some factors may have a greater effect than others. These findings support the theory that incessant ovulation is a major contributor to the occurrence of ovarian cancer and suggest that ovulations during the 20s may be those most associated with disease risk. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.