Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters

Spatio-temporal clusters in 1997?2003 fire sequences of Tuscany region (central Italy) have been identified and analysed by using the scan statistic, a method which was devised to evidence clusters in epidemiology. Results showed that the method is reliable to find clusters of events and to evaluate their significance via Monte Carlo replication. The evaluation of the presence of spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrence and their significance could have a great impact in forthcoming studies on fire occurrences prediction.

Intestinal parasites in Iaualapiti indians from Xingu Park, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Brine flotation and gravity sedimentation coproscopical examinations were performed in stool samples from 69 of the 147 Iaualapiti Indians of the Xingu Park, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. Intestinal [arasites were present in 89.9% of the population examined. High rates of prevalence were found for some parasite species. Ancylostomidae, 82.6%; Enterobius vermicularis, 26.1%; Ascaris lumbricoides, 20.3%; and Entamoeba coli, 68.1%. Infection by Trichuris trichuria, Schistosoma mansoni, Taenia spp. and Hymenolepis nana was not detected. Helminth's prevalence in children aged one year or less was comparatively low (33.3%). Quantitative coproscopy was done in positive samples for Ascaris and Ancylostomidae and the results expressed in eggs per gram of feces (EPG). Quantitative results revealed that worm burdens are very low and overdispersed in this Indian tribe, a previously unreported fact.

Ovipositional substrates used by Calyptrate Diptera in Tijuca forest, Rio de Janeiro

Twenty seven species of calyptrate muscoids were reared from a forested area of Rio de Janeiro (Tijuca Forest). Substrates for obtaining flies were beef liver, fish, mouse, frog, shrimp, snail carcasses, human faeces, banana and papaya fruits. The most frequent species found were: Fannia sp. (subgroup pusio) (49.9% on shrimp). Hemilucilia flavifacies (95.0% on liver). Phaenicia eximia (49.4% on mouse), Synthesiomyia nudiseta ( 100.0% on fish), Ophyra aenescens (100.0% on shrimp), Oxyvinia excisa (100.0% on faeces), Euboettecheria collusor (52.4% on faeces) and Pattonella intermutans (61.0% on frog).

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.

Forest culicinae mosquitoes in the environs of samuel hydroeletric plant, state of Rondônia, Brazil

Data on frequency and seasonal distribution of culicinae were recorded in the forest near a recently constructed hydroelectric plant - Samuel, in the State of Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon. Collections were performed almost daily from August 1990 to July 1991, between 6 and 9 p.m., using human bait. A total of 3,769 mosquitoes was collected, representing 21 species, including seven new records for the State of Rondônia. The most frequently collected species were Aedes fulvus (25%) and Ae. pennai (12.3%). The highest density for the majority of mosquito species coincided with the rainy season.

Simian malaria at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon - II: Vertical distribution and frequency of anopheline species inside and outside the forest

An anopheline survey was carried out in two simian malaria areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Balbina and Samuel, to determine the potential vectors of Plasmodium brasilianum. The most abundant and/or acrodendrophilic anophelines in the forest and the most likely vector were Anopheles mediopunctatus, An. nuneztovari, An. oswaldoi, An. triannulatus and An. shannoni. An. darlingi and An. marajoara were captured essentially in anthropic habitats outside the forest and are unlikely to be involved in the transmission of P. brasilianum among monkeys within the forests and from monkeys to man in their surroundings in the Amazon.

The Polytene Chromosomes of Cnesia dissimilis (Edwards) and Three Species of Gigantodax Enderlein (Diptera: Simuliidae) from Lanin National Park (Argentina)

Cytological studies were made on larvae of Gigantodax marginalis, G. chilensis, G. fulvescens and Cnesia dissimilis from four creeks in Lanin National Park, Neuquen province, Argentina. Chromosome maps and idiograms of these species are presented. The following inversions were observed: G. marginalis: IL-1 (X-linked inversion), IL-2 (Y-linked inversion), IIS-1.2, IIL-1, IIIL-4,5; G. chilensis: IL-4 (X-linked inversion), IIS-1.2, IIIL-4,5; G. fulvescens:IL-1 (X-linked inversion), IL-3 (Y-linked inversion), IIS-1.2, IIL-1, IIIL-4,5; C. dissimilis: IL-1, IL-5, IIIL-1. Karyological information was used to construct a cladogram and Cnesia sp. Was found to show close resemblance to the three Gigantodax spp.

Presence of Panstrongylus rufotuberculatus (Champion, 1899) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) in Argentina

Panstrongylus rufotuberculatus is reported for the first time in Argentina. Four adults were attracted by the light of human dwellings in Calilegua National Park, Jujuy, at 1150 masl within the subtropical humid forest. The individuals were similar to those described in the literature. The epidemiological significance of this species is very low in the area, although deforestation might increase its role in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi.

Distribution of Sandflies (Diptera:Psychodidae) on Tree-trunks in a Non-flooded Area of the Ducke Forest Reserve, Manaus, AM, Brazil

Sandflies were collected in the base of tree-trunks in the seasons of high and least rainfall in the Ducke Forest Reserve, near Manaus in the State of Amazonas. Lutzomyia umbratilis was the most abundant sandfly species. Caryocar villosum, Chrysophyllum amazonicum, Dinizia excelsa, Eschweilera atropetiolata and Parkia multijuga were the tree species on which most sandflies were collected and relative abundance were related to trunk characteristics. Seasonal patterns of sandfly distribution in the forest were observed.

A Mitochondrial DNA Phylogeny Indicates Close Relationships between Populations of Lutzomyia whitmani (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) from the Rain-forest Regions of Amazônia and Northeast Brazil

Phylogenetic analysis of all 31 described mitochondrial (cytochrome b) haplotypes of Lutzomyia whitmani demonstrated that new material from the State of Rondônia, in southwest Amazônia, forms a clade within a lineage found only in the rain-forest regions of Brazil. This rain-forest lineage also contains two other clades of haplotypes, one from eastern Amazônia and one from the Atlantic forest zone of northeast Brazil (including the type locality of the species in Ilhéus, State of Bahia). These findings do not favour recognizing two allopatric cryptic species of L. whitmani, one associated with the silvatic transmission of Leishmania shawi in southeast Amazônia and the other with the peridomestic transmission of Le. braziliensis in northeast Brazil. Instead, they suggest that there is (or has been in the recent past) a continuum of inter-breeding populations of L. whitmani in the rain-forest regions of Brazil.

Ecology of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas of Serra do Mar State Park, State of São Paulo, Brazil. I - Monthly frequency and climatic factors

The ecology of mosquitoes were studied (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas of Serra do Mar State Park, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Systematized monthly human bait collections were made three times a day, for periods of 2 or 3 h each, in sylvatic and rural areas for 24 consecutive months (January 1991 to December 1992). A total of 24,943 specimens of adult mosquitoes belonging to 57 species were collected during 622 collective periods. Coquillettidia chrysonotum was the most frequent collected mosquito (45.8%) followed by Aedes serratus (6.8%), Cq. venezuelensis (6.5%), Psorophora ferox (5.2) and Ps. albipes (3.1%). The monthly averages of temperature and relative humidity were inserted in the ten-year average limits of maximum and minimum of the previous ten-years. Rainfall accompanied the curve of the ten-year averages. Those climatic factors were influential in the incidence of some species; temperature: Anopheles cruzii, An. mediopunctatus, Ae. scapularis, Ae. fulvus, Cq. chrysonotum, Cq. venezuelensis, Runchomyia reversa, Wyeomyia dyari, Wy. confusa, Wy. shannoni, Wy. theobaldi and Limatus flavisetosus; relative humidity: Ae. serratus, Ae. scapularis, Cq. venezuelensis and Ru. reversa; rainfall: An. cruzii, Ae. scapularis, Ae. fulvus, Cq. venezuelensis Ru. reversa, Wy. theobaldi and Li. flavisetosus.