997 resultados para Forecast methods


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Objective: To explore the effect of education and training on the delivery of alcohol screening and brief intervention and referral to high-risk patients in a hospital setting. Main outcome measures included; delivery of training; practice change in relation to staff performing alcohol screening, brief intervention and referrals. Methods: Observational study design using mixed methods set in a tertiary referral hospital. Pre-post assessment of medical records and semi-structured interviews with key informants. Results: Routine screening for substance misuse (9% pre / 71.4% post) and wellbeing concerns (6.6% pre / 15 % post) was more frequent following the introduction of resources and staff participation in educational workshops. There was no evidence of a concomitant increase in delivery of brief intervention or referrals to services. Implementation challenges, including time constraints and staff attitudes, and enablers such as collaboration and visible pathways, were identified. Conclusion: Rates of patient screening increased, however barriers to delivery of brief intervention and referrals remained. Implementation strategies targeting specific barriers and enablers to introducing interventions are both required to improve the application of secondary prevention for patients in acute settings. Implications: Educational training, formalised liaison between services, systematised early intervention protocols, and continuous quality improvement processes will progress service delivery in this area.

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Maize is a highly important crop to many countries around the world, through the sale of the maize crop to domestic processors and subsequent production of maize products and also provides a staple food to subsistance farms in undeveloped countries. In many countries, there have been long-term research efforts to develop a suitable hardness method that could assist the maize industry in improving efficiency in processing as well as possibly providing a quality specification for maize growers, which could attract a premium. This paper focuses specifically on hardness and reviews a number of methodologies as well as important biochemical aspects of maize that contribute to maize hardness used internationally. Numerous foods are produced from maize, and hardness has been described as having an impact on food quality. However, the basis of hardness and measurement of hardness are very general and would apply to any use of maize from any country. From the published literature, it would appear that one of the simpler methods used to measure hardness is a grinding step followed by a sieving step, using multiple sieve sizes. This would allow the range in hardness within a sample as well as average particle size and/or coarse/fine ratio to be calculated. Any of these parameters could easily be used as reference values for the development of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibrations. The development of precise NIR calibrations will provide an excellent tool for breeders, handlers, and processors to deliver specific cultivars in the case of growers and bulk loads in the case of handlers, thereby ensuring the most efficient use of maize by domestic and international processors. This paper also considers previous research describing the biochemical aspects of maize that have been related to maize hardness. Both starch and protein affect hardness, with most research focusing on the storage proteins (zeins). Both the content and composition of the zein fractions affect hardness. Genotypes and growing environment influence the final protein and starch content and. to a lesser extent, composition. However, hardness is a highly heritable trait and, hence, when a desirable level of hardness is finally agreed upon, the breeders will quickly be able to produce material with the hardness levels required by the industry.

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Promotion of better procedures for releasing undersize fish, advocacy of catch-and-release angling, and changing minimum legal sizes are increasingly being used as tools for sustainable management of fish stocks. However without knowing the proportion of released fish that survive, the conservation value of any of these measures is uncertain. We developed a floating vertical enclosure to estimate short-term survival of released line-caught tropical and subtropical reef-associated species, and used it to compare the effectiveness of two barotrauma-relief procedures (venting and shotline releasing) on red emperor (Lutjanus sebae). Barotrauma signs varied with capture depth, but not with the size of the fish. Fish from the greatest depths (40-52 m) exhibited extreme signs less frequently than did those from intermediate depths (30-40 m), possibly as a result of swim bladder gas being vented externally through a rupture in the body wall. All but two fish survived the experiment, and as neither release technique significantly improved short-term survival of the red emperor over non-treatment we see little benefit in promoting either venting or shotline releasing for this comparatively resilient species. Floating vertical enclosures can improve short-term post-release mortality estimates as they overcome many problems encountered when constraining fish in submerged cages.

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Objective: We aimed to assess the feasibility of delivering a music therapy program on adolescent psychiatric wards. Method: We undertook a mixed-methods evaluation of a pilot program. Various active and receptive techniques were employed in group music therapy sessions delivered as part of a structured clinical program. Data collected in interviews with participants and staff and feedback questionnaires were thematically and descriptively analysed and triangulated. Results: Data from 62 questionnaires returned by 43 patients who took part in 16 music therapy sessions, and seven staff, evidenced strong support for music therapy. Patients typically reported experiencing sessions as relaxing, comforting, uplifting, and empowering; >90% would participate by choice and use music therapeutically in the future. Staff endorsed music therapy as valuable therapeutically, reporting that patients engaged enthusiastically and identified sessions as improving their own moods and ward milieu. Conclusions: Integration of music therapy in inpatient treatment of adolescents is feasible and acceptable, and is valued by staff and patients as a complement to ‘talking therapies’. Participation is enjoyed and associated with outcomes including improvement in mood, expression of feelings and social engagement consistent with recovery.

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Inter-specific Corymbia hybrids are of increasing interest to plantation forestry, yet there is little knowledge of the most suitable controlled pollination methods for this genus. Inter-specific crosses were made between C. torelliana [CT(maternal parent)] and C. citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV), C. henryi (CH) and C. citriodora subsp. citriodora (CCC) using conventional pollination, one-stop pollination (OSP) and artificially-induced protogyny on yellow buds (AIP Y) pollination methods. Additional treatments included AIP on green buds (AIP G) and the use of exclusion bags for the OSP and AIP methods. Inter-specific hybrids (CT x CCV, CT x CH and CT x CCC) were successfully created using all three pollination methods. The AIP Y treatment provided the highest seed yields and achieved time savings of >41% over the conventional and OSP methods, resulting in up to five-fold increases in operator productivity. However, the AIP Y treatment also had the highest C. torelliana contamination levels (9.3–13.2%). The use of exclusion bags with the AIP method had minimal effect on contamination rates, indicating a high proportion of selfpollen contamination. Contamination rates varied between maternal parents, suggesting variation in selfcompatibility for C. torelliana individuals. AIP using semi-ripe green buds was not effective at reducing selfing and had low operator productivity. The AIP method is suitable for use in a large-scale hybrid breeding program for C. torelliana. When self-pollination effects are managed, it could greatly reduce the costs associated with the production of seed of elite family crosses for commercial forestry deployment.

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A comprehensive set of new configurations for the holographic simulation of a wide variety of mirrors is described. These holographically simulated mirrors (HSMs) have been experimentally realized and their imaging performance has been studied.

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Much progress in nanoscience and nanotechnology has been made in the past few years thanks to the increased availability of sophisticated physical methods to characterize nanomaterials. These techniques include electron microscopy and scanning probe microscopies, in addition to standard techniques such as X-ray and neutron diffraction, X-ray scattering, and various spectroscopies. Characterization of nanomaterials includes the determination not only of size and shape, but also of the atomic and electronic structures and other important properties. In this article we describe some of the important methods employed for characterization of nanostructures, describing a few case studies for illustrative purposes. These case studies include characterizations of Au, ReO3, and GaN nanocrystals; ZnO, Ni, and Co nanowires; inorganic and carbon nanotubes; and two-dimensional graphene.

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Combustion is a complex phenomena involving a multiplicity of variables. Some important variables measured in flame tests follow [1]. In order to characterize ignition, such related parameters as ignition time, ease of ignition, flash ignition temperature, and self-ignition temperature are measured. For studying the propagation of the flame, parameters such as distance burned or charred, area of flame spread, time of flame spread, burning rate, charred or melted area, and fire endurance are measured. Smoke characteristics are studied by determining such parameters as specific optical density, maximum specific optical density, time of occurrence of the densities, maximum rate of density increase, visual obscuration time, and smoke obscuration index. In addition to the above variables, there are a number of specific properties of the combustible system which could be measured. These are soot formation, toxicity of combustion gases, heat of combustion, dripping phenomena during the burning of thermoplastics, afterglow, flame intensity, fuel contribution, visual characteristics, limiting oxygen concentration (OI), products of pyrolysis and combustion, and so forth. A multitude of flammability tests measuring one or more of these properties have been developed [2]. Admittedly, no one small scale test is adequate to mimic or assess the performance of a plastic in a real fire situation. The conditions are much too complicated [3, 4]. Some conceptual problems associated with flammability testing of polymers have been reviewed [5, 6].

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In this thesis, two separate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping techniques were set up at the Finnish Genome Center, pooled genotyping was evaluated as a screening method for large-scale association studies, and finally, the former approaches were used to identify genetic factors predisposing to two distinct complex diseases by utilizing large epidemiological cohorts and also taking environmental factors into account. The first genotyping platform was based on traditional but improved restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism (RFLP) utilizing 384-microtiter well plates, multiplexing, small reaction volumes (5 µl), and automated genotype calling. We participated in the development of the second genotyping method, based on single nucleotide primer extension (SNuPeTM by Amersham Biosciences), by carrying out the alpha- and beta tests for the chemistry and the allele-calling software. Both techniques proved to be accurate, reliable, and suitable for projects with thousands of samples and tens of markers. Pooled genotyping (genotyping of pooled instead of individual DNA samples) was evaluated with Sequenom s MassArray MALDI-TOF, in addition to SNuPeTM and PCR-RFLP techniques. We used MassArray mainly as a point of comparison, because it is known to be well suited for pooled genotyping. All three methods were shown to be accurate, the standard deviations between measurements being 0.017 for the MassArray, 0.022 for the PCR-RFLP, and 0.026 for the SNuPeTM. The largest source of error in the process of pooled genotyping was shown to be the volumetric error, i.e., the preparation of pools. We also demonstrated that it would have been possible to narrow down the genetic locus underlying congenital chloride diarrhea (CLD), an autosomal recessive disorder, by using the pooling technique instead of genotyping individual samples. Although the approach seems to be well suited for traditional case-control studies, it is difficult to apply if any kind of stratification based on environmental factors is needed. Therefore we chose to continue with individual genotyping in the following association studies. Samples in the two separate large epidemiological cohorts were genotyped with the PCR-RFLP and SNuPeTM techniques. The first of these association studies concerned various pregnancy complications among 100,000 consecutive pregnancies in Finland, of which we genotyped 2292 patients and controls, in addition to a population sample of 644 blood donors, with 7 polymorphisms in the potentially thrombotic genes. In this thesis, the analysis of a sub-study of pregnancy-related venous thromboses was included. We showed that the impact of factor V Leiden polymorphism on pregnancy-related venous thrombosis, but not the other tested polymorphisms, was fairly large (odds ratio 11.6; 95% CI 3.6-33.6), and increased multiplicatively when combined with other risk factors such as obesity or advanced age. Owing to our study design, we were also able to estimate the risks at the population level. The second epidemiological cohort was the Helsinki Birth Cohort of men and women who were born during 1924-1933 in Helsinki. The aim was to identify genetic factors that might modify the well known link between small birth size and adult metabolic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance. Among ~500 individuals with detailed birth measurements and current metabolic profile, we found that an insertion/deletion polymorphism of the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) gene was associated with the duration of gestation, and weight and length at birth. Interestingly, the ACE insertion allele was also associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.0004) in adult life, but only among individuals who were born small (those among the lowest third of birth weight). Likewise, low birth weight was associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.003), but only among carriers of the ACE insertion allele. The association with birth measurements was also found with a common haplotype of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene. Furthermore, the association between short length at birth and adult impaired glucose tolerance was confined to carriers of this haplotype (p=0.007). These associations exemplify the interaction between environmental factors and genotype, which, possibly due to altered gene expression, predisposes to complex metabolic diseases. Indeed, we showed that the common GR gene haplotype associated with reduced mRNA expression in thymus of three individuals (p=0.0002).

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Aim: The requirement for an allied health workforce is expanding as the global burden of disease increases internationally. To safely meet the demand for an expanded workforce of orthotist/prosthetists in Australia, competency based standards, which are up-to-date and evidence-based, are required. The aims of this study were to determine the minimum level for entry into the orthotic/prosthetic profession; to develop entry level competency standards for the profession; and to validate the developed entry-level competency standards within the profession nationally, using an evidence-based approach. Methods: A mixed-methods research design was applied, using a three-step sequential exploratory design, where step 1 involved collecting and analyzing qualitative data from two focus groups; step 2 involved exploratory instrument development and testing, developing the draft competency standards; and step 3 involved quantitative data collection and analysis – a Delphi survey. In stage 1 (steps 1 and 2), the two focus groups – an expert and a recent graduate group of Australian orthotist/prosthetists – were led by an experienced facilitator, to identify gaps in the current competency standards and then to outline a key purpose, and work roles and tasks for the profession. The resulting domains and activities of the first draft of the competency standards were synthesized using thematic analysis. In stage 2 (step 3), the draft-competency standards were circulated to a purposive sample of the membership of the Australian Orthotic Prosthetic Association, using three rounds of Delphi survey. A project reference group of orthotist/prosthetists reviewed the results of both stages. Results: In stage 1, the expert (n = 10) and the new graduate (n = 8) groups separately identified work roles and tasks, which formed the initial draft of the competency standards. Further drafts were refined and performance criteria added by the project reference group, resulting in the final draft-competency standards. In stage 2, the final draft-competency standards were circulated to 56 members (n = 44 final round) of the Association, who agreed on the key purpose, 6 domains, 18 activities, and 68 performance criteria of the final competency standards. Conclusion: This study outlines a rigorous and evidence-based mixed-methods approach for developing and endorsing professional competency standards, which is representative of the views of the profession of orthotist/prosthetists.

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Printing papers have been the main product of the Finnish paper industry. To improve properties and economy of printing papers, controlling of tracheid cross-sectional dimensions and wood viscoelasticity are examined in this study. Controlling is understood as any procedure which yields raw material classes with distinct properties and small internal variation. Tracheid cross-sectional dimensions, i.e., cell wall thickness and radial and tangential diameters can be controlled with methods such as sorting wood into pulpwood and sawmill chips, sorting of logs according to tree social status and fractionation of fibres. These control methods were analysed in this study with simulations, which were based on measured tracheid cross-sectional dimensions. A SilviScan device was used to measure the data set from five Norway spruce (Picea abies) and five Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trunks. The simulation results indicate that the sawmill chips and top pulpwood assortments have quite similar cross-sectional dimensions. Norway spruce and Scots pine are on average also relatively similar in their cross-sectional dimensions. The distributions of these species are somewhat different, but from a practical point of view, the differences are probably of minor importance. The controlling of tracheid cross-sectional dimensions can be done most efficiently with methods that can separate fibres into earlywood and latewood. Sorting of logs or partitioning of logs into juvenile and mature wood were markedly less efficient control methods than fractionation of fibres. Wood viscoelasticity affects energy consumption in mechanical pulping, and is thus an interesting control target when improving energy efficiency of the process. A literature study was made to evaluate the possibility of using viscoelasticity in controlling. The study indicates that there is considerable variation in viscoelastic properties within tree species, but unfortunately, the viscoelastic properties of important raw material lots such as top pulpwood or sawmill chips are not known. Viscoelastic properties of wood depend mainly on lignin, but also on microfibrillar angle, width of cellulose crystals and tracheid cross-sectional dimensions.

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Amongst alternative energy sources, photovoltaics hold a considerable promise for it is a plentiful, easily accessible and renewable source of power. Yet, the overall cost of generating electricity using the most advanced silicon based solar cells remains high compared to both traditional and other renewable power generation approaches. Organic thin film photovoltaics are an emerging economically competitive photovoltaic technology that combines manufacturing adaptability, low-cost processing and a lightweight, flexible device end-product. At present, however, commercial use of organic photovoltaics is hindered by low conversion efficiency and poor overall stability of the devices. Encapsulation with high barrier performance materials and structures is one of the key ways to address these issues and improve device lifetime. This paper will briefly outline the current understanding of the major degradation mechanisms, their interrelation and the internal and external factors that initiate these processes. Then, the paper will provide an overview of currently available encapsulant materials, their utility in limiting chemical (water vapor and oxygen penetration) and mechanical degradation within individual layers and device as a whole, and potential drawbacks to their application in organic photovoltaic devices.

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The availability and quality of irrigation water has become an issue limiting productivity in many Australian vegetable regions. Production is also under competitive pressure from supply chain forces. Producers look to new technologies, including changing irrigation infrastructure, exploring new water sources, and more complex irrigation management, to survive these stresses. Often there is little objective information investigating which improvements could improve outcomes for vegetable producers, and external communities (e.g. meeting NRM targets). This has led to investment in inappropriate technologies, and costly repetition of errors, as business independently discover the worth of technologies by personal experience. In our project, we investigated technology improvements for vegetable irrigation. Through engagement with industry and other researchers, we identified technologies most applicable to growers, particularly those that addressed priority issues. We developed analytical tools for ‘what if’ scenario testing of technologies. We conducted nine detailed experiments in the Lockyer Valley and Riverina vegetable growing districts, as well as case studies on grower properties in southern Queensland. We investigated root zone monitoring tools (FullStop™ wetting front detectors and Soil Solution Extraction Tubes - SSET), drip system layout, fertigation equipment, and altering planting arrangements. Our project team developed and validated models for broccoli, sweet corn, green beans and lettuce, and spreadsheets for evaluating economic risks associated with new technologies. We presented project outcomes at over 100 extension events, including irrigation showcases, conferences, field days, farm walks and workshops. The FullStops™ were excellent for monitoring root zone conditions (EC, nitrate levels), and managing irrigation with poor quality water. They were easier to interpret than the SSET. The SSET were simpler to install, but required wet soil to be reliable. SSET were an option for monitoring deeper soil zones, unsuitable for FullStop™ installations. Because these root zone tools require expertise, and are labour intensive, we recommend they be used to address specific problems, or as a periodic auditing strategy, not for routine monitoring. In our research, we routinely found high residual N in horticultural soils, with subsequently little crop yield response to additional nitrogen fertiliser. With improved irrigation efficiency (and less leaching), it may be timely to re-examine nitrogen budgets and recommendations for vegetable crops. Where the drip irrigation tube was located close to the crop row (i.e. within 5-8 cm), management of irrigation was easier. It improved nitrogen uptake, water use efficiency, and reduced the risk of poor crop performance through moisture stress, particularly in the early crop establishment phases. Close proximity of the drip tube to the crop row gives the producer more options for managing salty water, and more flexibility in taking risks with forecast rain. In many vegetable crops, proximate drip systems may not be cost-effective. The next best alternative is to push crop rows closer to the drip tube (leading to an asymmetric row structure). The vegetable crop models are good at predicting crop phenology (development stages, time to harvest), input use (water, fertiliser), environmental impacts (nutrient, salt movement) and total yields. The two immediate applications for the models are understanding/predicting/manipulating harvest dates and nitrogen movements in vegetable cropping systems. From the economic tools, the major influences on accumulated profit are price and yield. In doing ‘what if’ analyses, it is very important to be as accurate as possible in ascertaining what the assumed yield and price ranges are. In most vegetable production systems, lowering the required inputs (e.g. irrigation requirement, fertiliser requirement) is unlikely to have a major influence on accumulated profit. However, if a resource is constraining (e.g. available irrigation water), it is usually most profitable to maximise return per unit of that resource.

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There is an increasing need to compare the results obtained with different methods of estimation of tree biomass in order to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of forest biomass carbon. In this study, tree biomass was investigated in a 30-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) (Young-Stand) and a 130-year-old mixed Norway spruce (Picea abies)-Scots pine stand (Mature-Stand) located in southern Finland (61º50' N, 24º22' E). In particular, a comparison of the results of different estimation methods was conducted to assess the reliability and suitability of their applications. For the trees in Mature-Stand, annual stem biomass increment fluctuated following a sigmoid equation, and the fitting curves reached a maximum level (from about 1 kg/yr for understorey spruce to 7 kg/yr for dominant pine) when the trees were 100 years old. Tree biomass was estimated to be about 70 Mg/ha in Young-Stand and about 220 Mg/ha in Mature-Stand. In the region (58.00-62.13 ºN, 14-34 ºE, ≤ 300 m a.s.l.) surrounding the study stands, the tree biomass accumulation in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands followed a sigmoid equation with stand age, with a maximum of 230 Mg/ha at the age of 140 years. In Mature-Stand, lichen biomass on the trees was 1.63 Mg/ha with more than half of the biomass occurring on dead branches, and the standing crop of litter lichen on the ground was about 0.09 Mg/ha. There were substantial differences among the results estimated by different methods in the stands. These results imply that a possible estimation error should be taken into account when calculating tree biomass in a stand with an indirect approach.