Isolation from a sheep of an attaching and effacing Escherichia coli O115:H- with a novel combination of virulence factors

Attaching and effacing (AE) lesions were observed in the caecum, proximal colon and rectum of one of four lambs experimentally inoculated at 6 weeks. of age with Escherichia coli O157:H7. However, the attached bacteria did not immunostain with O157-specific antiserum. Subsequent bacteriological analysis of samples from this animal yielded two E. coli O115:H- strains, one from the colon (CO) and one from the rectum (RC), and those bacteria forming the AE lesions were shown to be of the O115 serogroup by immunostaining. The O115:H(-)isolates formed microcolonies and attaching and effacing lesions, as demonstrated by the fluorescence actin staining test, on HEp-2 tissue culture cells. Both isolates were confirmed by PCR to encode the epsilon (epsilon) subtype of intimin. Supernates of both O115:H- isolates induced cytopathic effects on Vero cell monolayers, and PCR analysis verified that both isolates encoded EAST1, CNF1 and CNF2 toxins but not Shiga-like toxins. Both isolates harboured similar sized plasmids but-PCR analysis indicated that only one of the O115:H- isolates (CO) possessed the plasmid-associated virulence determinants ehxA and etpD. Neither strain possessed the espP, katP or bfpA plasmid-associated virulence determinants. These E. coli O115:H- strains exhibited a novel combination of virulence determinants and are the first isolates found to possess both CNF1 and CNF2.

Local orientational disorder in peptide fibrils probed by a combination of residue-specific 13C-18O labelling, polarised infrared spectroscopy and molecular combing

A novel combination of site-specific isotope labelling, polarised infrared spectroscopy and molecular combing reveal local orientational ordering in the fibril-forming peptide YTIAALLSPYSGGRADS. Use of 13C-18O labelled alanine residues demonstrates that the Nterminal end of the peptide is incorporated into the cross-beta structure, while the C-terminal end shows orientational disorder

An unusual axial–axial combination of alternating cyclic rings in the chair conformations of hexameric water and chlorine-water clusters

An alternating hexameric water (H2O)(6) cluster and a chlorine-water cluster [Cl-2(H2O)(4)](2-) in the chair forms combine axially to each other to form a 1D chain [{Cl-2(H2O)(6)}(2-)](n) in complex [FeL2]Cl center dot(H2O)(3) (L=2-[(2-methylaminoethylimino)-methyl]-phenol)]. The water molecules display extensive H-bonding interactions with monomeric iron-organic units to form a hydrogen-bonded 2D supramolecular assembly.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Janus PEG-based dendrimers for use in combination therapy: controlled multi-drug loading and sequential release

The increasing use of drug combinations to treat disease states, such as cancer, calls for improved delivery systems that are able to deliver multiple agents. Herein, we report a series of novel Janus dendrimers with potential for use in combination therapy. Different generations (first and second) of PEG-based dendrons containing two different “model drugs”, benzyl alcohol (BA) and 3-phenylpropionic acid (PPA), were synthesized. BA and PPA were attached via two different linkers (carbonate and ester, respectively) to promote differential drug release. The four dendrons were coupled together via (3 + 2) cycloaddition chemistries to afford four Janus dendrimers, which contained varying amounts and different ratios of BA and PPA, namely, (BA)2-G1-G1-(PPA)2, (BA)4-G2-G1-(PPA)2, (BA)2-G1-G2-(PPA)4, and (BA)4-G2-G2-(PPA)4. Release studies in plasma showed that the dendrimers provided sequential release of the two model drugs, with BA being released faster than PPA from all of the dendrons. The different dendrimers allowed delivery of increasing amounts (0.15–0.30 mM) and in exact molecular ratios (1:2; 2:1; 1:2; 2:2) of the two model drug compounds. The dendrimers were noncytotoxic (100% viability at 1 mg/mL) toward human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) and nontoxic toward red blood cells, as confirmed by hemolysis studies. These studies demonstrate that these Janus PEG-based dendrimers offer great potential for the delivery of drugs via combination therapy.

Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Polymer therapeutics designed for a combination therapy of hormone-dependent cancer

Designer drug: A polymer therapeutic was designed for a combination therapy of breast cancer. N-(2-Hydroxypropyl)methacrylamide was used as the model polymer platform to prepare a unimolecular polymer conjugate (see picture, radius of gyration: 12.8 nm) that combines an endocrine (the aromatase inhibitor aminoglutethimide, blue) and a chemotherapeutic agent (the anthraxcycline antibiotic doxorubicin, red).

Forecast, measurement, and modeling of an unprecedented polar ozone filament event over Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

In mid-March 2005 the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex experienced a severe stretching episode, bringing a large polar filament far south of Alaska toward Hawaii. This meridional intrusion of rare extent, coinciding with the polar vortex final warming and breakdown, was followed by a zonal stretching in the wake of the easterly propagating subtropical main flow. This caused polar air to remain over Hawaii for several days before diluting into the subtropics. After being successfully forecasted to pass over Hawaii by the high-resolution potential vorticity advection model Modèle Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA), the filament was observed on isentropic surfaces between 415 K and 455 K (17–20 km) by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory stratospheric ozone lidar measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, between 16 and 19 March 2005. It was materialized as a thin layer of enhanced ozone peaking at 1.6 ppmv in a region where the climatological values usually average 1.0 ppmv. These values were compared to those obtained by the three-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model MIMOSA-CHIM. Agreement between lidar and model was excellent, particularly in the similar appearance of the ozone peak near 435 K (18.5 km) on 16 March, and the persistence of this layer at higher isentropic levels for the following three days. Passive ozone, also modeled by MIMOSA-CHIM, was at about 3–4 ppmv inside the filament while above Hawaii. A detailed history of the modeled chemistry inside the filament suggests that the air mass was still polar ozone–depleted when passing over Hawaii. The filament quickly separated from the main vortex after its Hawaiian overpass. It never reconnected and, in less than 10 days, dispersed entirely in the subtropics

Fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images using support value transform and fuzzy combination rules

Infrared polarization and intensity imagery provide complementary and discriminative information in image understanding and interpretation. In this paper, a novel fusion method is proposed by effectively merging the information with various combination rules. It makes use of both low-frequency and highfrequency images components from support value transform (SVT), and applies fuzzy logic in the combination process. Images (both infrared polarization and intensity images) to be fused are firstly decomposed into low-frequency component images and support value image sequences by the SVT. Then the low-frequency component images are combined using a fuzzy combination rule blending three sub-combination methods of (1) region feature maximum, (2) region feature weighting average, and (3) pixel value maximum; and the support value image sequences are merged using a fuzzy combination rule fusing two sub-combination methods of (1) pixel energy maximum and (2) region feature weighting. With the variables of two newly defined features, i.e. the low-frequency difference feature for low-frequency component images and the support-value difference feature for support value image sequences, trapezoidal membership functions are proposed and developed in tuning the fuzzy fusion process. Finally the fused image is obtained by inverse SVT operations. Experimental results of visual inspection and quantitative evaluation both indicate the superiority of the proposed method to its counterparts in image fusion of infrared polarization and intensity images.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment

Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.