Exploratory data analysis with non-linear and missing data in geochemistry

Exploratory analysis of data seeks to find common patterns to gain insights into the structure and distribution of the data. In geochemistry it is a valuable means to gain insights into the complicated processes making up a petroleum system. Typically linear visualisation methods like principal components analysis, linked plots, or brushing are used. These methods can not directly be employed when dealing with missing data and they struggle to capture global non-linear structures in the data, however they can do so locally. This thesis discusses a complementary approach based on a non-linear probabilistic model. The generative topographic mapping (GTM) enables the visualisation of the effects of very many variables on a single plot, which is able to incorporate more structure than a two dimensional principal components plot. The model can deal with uncertainty, missing data and allows for the exploration of the non-linear structure in the data. In this thesis a novel approach to initialise the GTM with arbitrary projections is developed. This makes it possible to combine GTM with algorithms like Isomap and fit complex non-linear structure like the Swiss-roll. Another novel extension is the incorporation of prior knowledge about the structure of the covariance matrix. This extension greatly enhances the modelling capabilities of the algorithm resulting in better fit to the data and better imputation capabilities for missing data. Additionally an extensive benchmark study of the missing data imputation capabilities of GTM is performed. Further a novel approach, based on missing data, will be introduced to benchmark the fit of probabilistic visualisation algorithms on unlabelled data. Finally the work is complemented by evaluating the algorithms on real-life datasets from geochemical projects.

Leontief Model Analysis with Fuzzy Parameters by Basic Matrixes Method

The basic matrixes method is suggested for the Leontief model analysis (LM) with some of its components indistinctly given. LM can be construed as a forecast task of product’s expenses-output on the basis of the known statistic information at indistinctly given several elements’ meanings of technological matrix, restriction vector and variables’ limits. Elements of technological matrix, right parts of restriction vector LM can occur as functions of some arguments. In this case the task’s dynamic analog occurs. LM essential complication lies in inclusion of variables restriction and criterion function in it.

Indirect ties in knowledge networks:a social network analysis with ordered weighted averaging operators

This PhD thesis analyses networks of knowledge flows, focusing on the role of indirect ties in the knowledge transfer, knowledge accumulation and knowledge creation process. It extends and improves existing methods for mapping networks of knowledge flows in two different applications and contributes to two stream of research. To support the underlying idea of this thesis, which is finding an alternative method to rank indirect network ties to shed a new light on the dynamics of knowledge transfer, we apply Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) to two different network contexts. Knowledge flows in patent citation networks and a company supply chain network are analysed using Social Network Analysis (SNA) and the OWA operator. The OWA is used here for the first time (i) to rank indirect citations in patent networks, providing new insight into their role in transferring knowledge among network nodes; and to analyse a long chain of patent generations along 13 years; (ii) to rank indirect relations in a company supply chain network, to shed light on the role of indirectly connected individuals involved in the knowledge transfer and creation processes and to contribute to the literature on knowledge management in a supply chain. In doing so, indirect ties are measured and their role as means of knowledge transfer is shown. Thus, this thesis represents a first attempt to bridge the OWA and SNA fields and to show that the two methods can be used together to enrich the understanding of the role of indirectly connected nodes in a network. More specifically, the OWA scores enrich our understanding of knowledge evolution over time within complex networks. Future research can show the usefulness of OWA operator in different complex networks, such as the on-line social networks that consists of thousand of nodes.

The value of indirect ties in citation networks:SNA analysis with OWA operator weights

This paper seeks to advance the theory and practice of the dynamics of complex networks in relation to direct and indirect citations. It applies social network analysis (SNA) and the ordered weighted averaging operator (OWA) to study a patent citations network. So far the SNA studies investigating long chains of patents citations have rarely been undertaken and the importance of a node in a network has been associated mostly with its number of direct ties. In this research OWA is used to analyse complex networks, assess the role of indirect ties, and provide guidance to reduce complexity for decision makers and analysts. An empirical example of a set of European patents published in 2000 in the renewable energy industry is provided to show the usefulness of the proposed approach for the preference ranking of patent citations.

Phase noise influence in long-range coherent optical OFDM systems with delay detection, IFFT multiplexing and FFT demodulation

We present a study of the influence of dispersion induced phase noise for CO-OFDM systems using FFT multiplexing/IFFT demultiplexing techniques (software based). The software based system provides a method for a rigorous evaluation of the phase noise variance caused by Common Phase Error (CPE) and Inter-Carrier Interference (ICI) including - for the first time to our knowledge - in explicit form the effect of equalization enhanced phase noise (EEPN). This, in turns, leads to an analytic BER specification. Numerical results focus on a CO-OFDM system with 10-25 GS/s QPSK channel modulation. A worst case constellation configuration is identified for the phase noise influence and the resulting BER is compared to the BER of a conventional single channel QPSK system with the same capacity as the CO-OFDM implementation. Results are evaluated as a function of transmission distance. For both types of systems, the phase noise variance increases significantly with increasing transmission distance. For a total capacity of 400 (1000) Gbit/s, the transmission distance to have the BER < 10-2 for the worst case CO-OFDM design is less than 800 and 460 km, respectively, whereas for a single channel QPSK system it is less than 1400 and 560 km.

Couette Gas Flow Between Cylinders with Different Temperature

Петър Господинов, Добри Данков, Владимир Русинов, Стефан Стефанов - Изследвано е стационарно течение на Кует на разреден газ в случая на въртене на вътрешния цилиндър и неподвижен външен цилиндър чрез използване на DSMC метод и числено решение на уравненията на Навие–Стокс за относително малка (дозвукова) скорост на въртене. Изследвани са различни случаи при промяна на температурата на въртящият се цилиндър и числото на Кнудсен. Целта на изследването е да се установи влиянието на малки скорости на въртене върху макрохарактеристиките – плътността, скоростта и температурата на газа. Установено е добро съвпадение на резултатите получени по двата метода за Kn = 0.02. Получените резултати са важни при решаването на неравнинни, задачи от микрофлуидиката с отчитане на ефектите на кривината. Ключови думи: механика на флуидите, кинетична теория, разреден газ, DSMC.

Robust tensor analysis with L1-norm

Tensor analysis plays an important role in modern image and vision computing problems. Most of the existing tensor analysis approaches are based on the Frobenius norm, which makes them sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose L1-norm-based tensor analysis (TPCA-L1), which is robust to outliers. Experimental results upon face and other datasets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach. © 2006 IEEE.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Nutrients of pore water in sediments of the central equatorial Pacific

Shipboard whole-core squeezing was used to measure pore water concentration vs depth profiles of [NO3]-, O2 and SiO2 at 12 stations in the equatorial Pacific along a transect from 15°S to 11°N at 135°W. The [NO3]- and SiO2 profiles were combined with fine-scale resistivity and porosity measurements to calculate benthic fluxes. After using O2 profiles, coupled with the [NO3]- profiles, to constrain the C:N of the degrading organic matter, the [NO3]- fluxes were converted to benthic organic carbon degradation rates. The range in benthic organic carbon degradation rates is 7-30 ?mol cm**-2 y**-1, with maximum values at the equator and minimum values at the southern end of the transect. The zonal trend of benthic degradation rates, with its equatorial maximum and with elevated values skewed to the north of the equator, is similar to the pattern of primary production observed in the region. Benthic organic carbon degradation is 1-2% of primary production. The range of benthic biogenic silica dissolution rates is 6.9-20 µmol cm**-2 y**-1, representing 2.5-5% of silicon fixation in the surface ocean of the region. Its zonal pattern is distinctly different from that of organic carbon degradation: the range in the ratio of silica dissolution to carbon degradation along the transect is 0.44-1.7 mol Si mol C**-1, with maximum values occurring between 12°S and 2°S, and with fairly constant values of 0.5-0.7 north of the equator. A box model calculation of the average lifetime of the organic carbon in the upper 1 cm of the sediments, where 80 +/- 11% of benthic organic carbon degradation occurs, indicates that it is short: from 3.1 years at high flux stations to 11 years at low flux stations. The reactive component of the organic matter must have a shorter lifetime than this average value. In contrast, the average lifetime of biogenic silica in the upper centimeter of these sediments is 55 +/- 28 years, and shows no systematic variations with benthic flux.

Individual monitoring of immune responses in rainbow trout after cohabitation and intraperitoneal injection challenge with Yersinia ruckeri

Acknowledgements This work was funded by the National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research (NC3Rs, grant G1100675). The authors are grateful to the aquarium staff at the University of Aberdeen (Karen Massie) and Dr David Smail at Marine Scotland for valuable discussion during the establishment of the experimental design.

Large volume metrology process model:measurability analysis with integration of metrology classification model and feature-based selection model

Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

Biogeochemical investigation of sediments at the Hakon Mosby Mud Volcano (Barents Sea)

We have investigated if in a cold seep methane or sulfide is used for chemosynthetic primary production and if significant amounts of the sulfide produced by anaerobic oxidation of methane are oxidized geochemically and hence are not available for chemosynthetic production. Geochemically controlled redox reactions and biological turnover were compared in different habitats of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano. The center of the mud volcano is characterized by the highest fluid flow, and most primary production by the microbial community depends on oxidation of methane. The small amount of sulfide produced is oxidized geochemically with oxygen or is precipitated with dissolved iron. In the medium flow peripheral Beggiatoa habitat sulfide is largely oxidized biologically. The oxygen and nitrate supply is high enough that Beggiatoa can oxidize the sulfide completely, and chemical sulfide oxidation or precipitation is not important. An internally stored nitrate reservoir with average concentrations of 110 mmol L-1 enables the Beggiatoa to oxidize sulfide anaerobically. The pH profile indicates sequential sulfide oxidation with elemental sulfur as intermediate. Gray thiotrophic mats associated with perturbed sediments showed a high heterogeneity in sulfate turnover and high sulfide fluxes, balanced by the opposing oxygen and nitrate fluxes so that biological oxidation dominates over geochemical sulfide removal processes. The three habitats indicate substantial small-scale variability in carbon fixation pathways either through direct biological use of methane or through indirect carbon fixation of methane-derived carbon dioxide by chemolithotrophic sulfide oxidation.

A Flow-Through Analysis of the US Lodging Industry During the Great Recession

Purpose – The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate the “flow-through” or relationship between top-line measures of hotel operating performance (occupancy, average daily rate and revenue per available room) and bottom-line measures of profitability (gross operating profit and net operating income), before and during the recent great recession. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses data provided by PKF Hospitality Research for the period from 2007-2009. A total of 714 hotels were analyzed and various top-line and bottom-line profitability changes were computed using both absolute levels and percentages. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between top and bottom line measures, and to derive flow-through ratios. Findings – The results show that average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy are significantly and positively related to gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) and net operating income per available room (NOIPAR). The evidence indicates that ADR, rather than occupancy, appears to be the stronger predictor and better measure of RevPAR growth and bottom-line profitability. The correlations and explained variances are also higher than those reported in prior research. Flow-through ratios range between 1.83 and 1.91 for NOIPAR, and between 1.55 and 1.65 for GOPPAR, across all chain-scales. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of this study include the limited number of years in the study period, limited number of hotels in a competitive set, and self-selection of hotels by the researchers. Practical implications – While ADR and occupancy work in combination to drive profitability, the authors' study shows that ADR is the stronger predictor of profitability. Hotel managers can use flow-through ratios to make financial forecasts, or use them as inputs in valuation models, to forecast future profitability. Originality/value – This paper extends prior research on the relationship between top-line measures and bottom-line profitability and serves to inform lodging owners, operators and asset managers about flow-through ratios, and how these ratios impact hotel profitability.