An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

Workshop on public participation in international negotiations on environmental matters: Panel on environmental justice and access rights for sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean

This publication was prepared with financial support from the United Nations Development Account and the project “Addressing critical socio-environmental challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean ”

Presence of infectious agents and co-infections in diarrheic dogs determined with a real-time polymerase chain reaction-based panel

Background: Infectious diarrhea can be caused by bacteria, viruses, or protozoan organisms, or a combination of these. The identification of co-infections in dogs is important to determine the prognosis and to plan strategies for their treatment and prophylaxis. Although many pathogens have been individually detected with real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), a comprehensive panel of agents that cause diarrhea in privately owned dogs has not yet been established. The objective of this study was to use a real-time PCR diarrhea panel to survey the frequencies of pathogens and co-infections in owned dogs attended in a veterinary hospital with and without diarrhea, as well the frequency in different countries. Feces samples were tested for canine distemper virus, canine coronavirus, canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2), Clostridium perfringens alpha toxin (CPA), Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia spp., and Salmonella spp. using molecular techniques.Results: In total, 104 diarrheic and 43 control dogs that were presented consecutively at a major private veterinary hospital were included in the study. Overall, 71/104 (68.3%) dogs with diarrhea were positive for at least one pathogen: a single infection in 39/71 dogs (54.9%) and co-infections in 32/71 dogs (45.1%), including 21/32 dogs (65.6%) with dual, 5/32 (15.6%) with triple, and 6/32 (18.8%) with quadruple infections. In the control group, 13/43 (30.2%) dogs were positive, all with single infections only. The most prevalent pathogens in the diarrheic dogs were CPA (40/104 dogs, 38.5%), CPV-2 (36/104 dogs, 34.6%), and Giardia spp. (14/104 dogs, 13.5%). CPV-2 was the most prevalent pathogen in the dual co-infections, associated with CPA, Cryptosporidium spp., or Giardia spp. No statistical difference (P = 0.8374) was observed in the duration of diarrhea or the number of deaths (P = 0.5722) in the presence or absence of single or co-infections.Conclusions: Diarrheic dogs showed a higher prevalence of pathogen infections than the controls. Whereas the healthy dogs had only single infections, about half the diarrheic dogs had co-infections. Therefore, multiple pathogens should be investigated in dogs presenting with diarrhea. The effects of multiple pathogens on the disease outcomes remain unclear because the rate of death and the duration of diarrhea did not seem to be affected by these factors.

Exact solutions to Elko spinors in spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker spacetimes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On the contact stiffness and nonlinear vibration of an elastic body with a rough surface in contact with a rigid flat surface

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pyrostegia venusta heptane extract containing saturated aliphatic hydrocarbons induces apoptosis on B16F10-Nex2 melanoma cells and displays antitumor activity in vivo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

FLOW AROUND A SQUARE CYLINDER POSITIONED NEAR A SMOOTH FLAT PLATE

Vortex shedding phenomenon produced by a square cylinder placed close to a smooth flat plate is experimentally studied by means of flow visualization techniques and hot-film anemometry. Qualitative and quantitative information about the flow field has been obtained for Reynolds numbers up to 1,000. Vortex shedding images in several Reynolds number have been captured and the non dimensional vortex shedding frequency has been obtained as a function of the Reynolds number.

Flat hotel

Projeto de um Flat Hotel na cidade de Presidente Prudente, para atender, principalmente, a demanda de empresários e estudantes que buscam um ambiente versátil e com autonomia maior que a de um hotel convencional, oferecendo espaços para a realização de suas atividades com o conforto de uma residência e a facilidade dos serviços de hotelaria. O desempenho no cumprimento das funções, somado a uma arquitetura de qualidade, nos sentidos práticos e plásticos, são os objetivos principais deste trabalho

O Programa Bolsa Família: contexto, propostas e seus resultados sobre a educação nos municípios brasileiros entre 2010 e 2012

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Escherichia coli from Crohn’s disease patient displays virulence features of enteroinvasive (EIEC), enterohemorragic (EHEC), and enteroaggregative (EAEC) pathotypes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

28-mer fragment derived from enterocin CRL35 displays an unexpected bactericidal effect on listeria cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural damage detection in an aeronautical panel using analysis of variance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Association of a Large Panel of Cytokine Gene Polymorphisms with Complications and Comorbidities in Type 2 Diabetes Patients

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)