973 resultados para First order autoregressive model AR (1)
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Solid waste generation is a natural consequence of human activity and is increasing along with population growth, urbanization and industrialization. Improper disposal of the huge amount of solid waste seriously affects the environment and contributes to climate change by the release of greenhouse gases. Practicing anaerobic digestion (AD) for the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) can reduce emissions to environment and thereby alleviate the environmental problems together with production of biogas, an energy source, and digestate, a soil amendment. The amenability of substrate for biogasification varies from substrate to substrate and different environmental and operating conditions such as pH, temperature, type and quality of substrate, mixing, retention time etc. Therefore, the purpose of this research work is to develop feasible semi-dry anaerobic digestion process for the treatment of OFMSW from Kerala, India for potential energy recovery and sustainable waste management. This study was carried out in three phases in order to reach the research purpose. In the first phase, batch study of anaerobic digestion of OFMSW was carried out for 100 days at 32°C (mesophilic digestion) for varying substrate concentrations. The aim of this study was to obtain the optimal conditions for biogas production using response surface methodology (RSM). The parameters studied were initial pH, substrate concentration and total organic carbon (TOC). The experimental results showed that the linear model terms of initial pH and substrate concentration and the quadratic model terms of the substrate concentration and TOC had significant individual effect (p < 0.05) on biogas yield. However, there was no interactive effect between these variables (p > 0.05). The optimum conditions for maximizing the biogas yield were a substrate concentration of 99 g/l, an initial pH of 6.5 and TOC of 20.32 g/l. AD of OFMSW with optimized substrate concentration of 99 g/l [Total Solid (TS)-10.5%] is a semi-dry digestion system .Under the optimized condition, the maximum biogas yield was 53.4 L/kg VS (volatile solid).. In the second phase, semi-dry anaerobic digestion of organic solid wastes was conducted for 45 days in a lab-scale batch experiment for substrate concentration of 100 g/l (TS-11.2%) for investigating the start-up performances under thermophilic condition (50°C). The performance of the reactor was evaluated by measuring the daily biogas production and calculating the degradation of total solids and the total volatile solids. The biogas yield at the end of the digestion was 52.9 L/kg VS for the substrate concentration of 100 g/l. About 66.7% of volatile solid degradation was obtained during the digestion. A first order model based on the availability of substrate as the limiting factor was used to perform the kinetic studies of batch anaerobic digestion system. The value of reaction rate constant, k, obtained was 0.0249 day-1. A laboratory bench scale reactor with a capacity of 36.8 litres was designed and fabricated to carry out the continuous anaerobic digestion of OFMSW in the third phase. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the digester at total solid concentration of 12% (semi-dry) under mesophlic condition (32°C). The digester was operated with different organic loading rates (OLRs) and constant retention time. The performance of the reactor was evaluated using parameters such as pH, volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), TOC and ammonia-N as well as biogas yield. During the reactor’s start-up period, the process is stable and there is no inhibition occurred and the average biogas production was 14.7 L/day. The reactor was fed in continuous mode with different OLRs (3.1,4.2 and 5.65 kg VS/m3/d) at constant retention time of 30 days. The highest volatile solid degradation of 65.9%, with specific biogas production of 368 L/kg VS fed was achieved with OLR of 3.1 kg VS/m3/d. Modelling and simulation of anaerobic digestion of OFMSW in continuous operation is done using adapted Anaerobic Digestion Model No 1 (ADM1).The proposed model, which has 34 dynamic state variables, considers both biochemical and physicochemical processes and contains several inhibition factors including three gas components. The number of processes considered is 28. The model is implemented in Matlab® version 7.11.0.584(R2010b). The model based on adapted ADM1 was tested to simulate the behaviour of a bioreactor for the mesophilic anaerobic digestion of OFMSW at OLR of 3.1 kg VS/m3/d. ADM1 showed acceptable simulating results.
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We consider a first order implicit time stepping procedure (Euler scheme) for the non-stationary Stokes equations in smoothly bounded domains of R3. Using energy estimates we can prove optimal convergence properties in the Sobolev spaces Hm(G) (m = 0;1;2) uniformly in time, provided that the solution of the Stokes equations has a certain degree of regularity. For the solution of the resulting Stokes resolvent boundary value problems we use a representation in form of hydrodynamical volume and boundary layer potentials, where the unknown source densities of the latter can be determined from uniquely solvable boundary integral equations’ systems. For the numerical computation of the potentials and the solution of the boundary integral equations a boundary element method of collocation type is used. Some simulations of a model problem are carried out and illustrate the efficiency of the method.
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The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.
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Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.
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The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country. Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest. I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish Labour Force Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series, the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformation of the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of the three models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the time series 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of the three models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the prediction regions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot. We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power of the three models
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Exercises and solutions in PDF
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Exercises and solutions in LaTex
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Exercises and solutions in LaTex
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Exercises and solutions in LaTex
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Se han sintetizado dos nuevos complejos mononucleares de Ru, con formula [RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2], a partir de la reacción entre [RuCl2(dmso)4] y Hbpp (3,5-bis(2-piridil)pirazola). El hecho que sólo tres de los seis posibles estereoisómeros se obtengan a partir de esta reacción, se ha racionalizado en base a factores estructurales y electrónicos. Estos complejos se han caracterizado de forma estructural, espectroscópica y electroquímica. En acetonitrilo en medio básico, el isómero trans,cis-[RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2] da lugar a procesos de isomerización de enlace de un ligando dmso cuando el Ru(II) se oxida a Ru(III). Las constantes termodinámicas y cinéticas para el proceso se han determinado por voltametria cíclica. La irradiación de trans,cis-[RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2] y cis(out),cis-[RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2] con luz UV o solar da lugar a reacciones de fotosustitución de un ligando dmso por una molécula de acetonitrilo para dar un nuevo compuesto el cual ha sido caracterizado en solución por técnicas espectroscópicas y electroquímicas. Ambos complejos resultan catalizadores útiles en la transferencia de hidrógeno de isopropanol a acetofenona, obteniéndose 1-feniletanol como único producto y un 42.1% de conversión (36.1 ciclos metálicos) a 80ºC con el isómero trans,cis-[RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2], que resulta significativamente más eficaz que el complejo cis(out),cis-[RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2]. La reacción de cis(out),cis-[RuCl2(Hbpp)(dmso)2] con trpy (2,2':6',2"-terpiridina) da lugar a los dos isómeros geométricos del complejo [Ru(Hbpp)(trpy)(Cl)]+, el in y el out. Estos complejos se han aislado y caracterizado por técnicas estructurales, espectroscópicas y electroquímicas. Estos cloro complejos han sido utilizados como precursores para la síntesis de los complejos análogos con ligandos aqua (in,out-[Ru(Hbpp)(trpy)(H2O)]2+) y piridina (in,out-[Ru(Hbpp)(trpy)(py)]2+), los cuales también han sido aislados y caracterizados. Las propiedades ácido-base de los aqua complejos, y del complejo out-py se han estudiado detalladamente por voltametria cíclica y mediante valoraciones espectrofotométricas ácido-base. El tratamiento matemático de los datos así obtenidos nos ha permitido determinar los valores de pKa para los distintos equilibrios de protonación de los complejos en los estados de oxidación II y III. El complejo out-aqua ha demostrado ser un buen catalizador para la oxidación electroquímica del alcohol benzílico, presumiblemente a benzaldehido. La constante de velocidad de segundo orden para el proceso ha sido determinada como 17.1 M-1 s-1, por simulación matemática. El dímero con un puente cloro, [Ru2Cl(bpp)(trpy)2]2+ ha sido preparado por dos rutas sintéticas diferentes. El dímero análogo con un puente acetato se ha obtenido por reacción del cloro dímero con un exceso de acetato sódico. El dímero con dos ligandos aqua [Ru2(bpp)(trpy)2(OH2)2]3+ puede obtenerse por hidrólisis ácida del complejo con un acetato puente o por hidrólisis básica del complejo con un puente cloro. Estos complejos han sido caracterizados por técnicas estructurales, espectroscópicas y electroquímicas. Las soluciones del dímero con dos ligandos aqua en medio ácido resultan inestables a la coordinación de aniones de la solución con el tiempo. Las propiedades ácido-base del dímero con dos aguas coordinadas han sido estudiadas por voltametria cíclica y mediante experimentos de electrólisis a potencial controlado. El pKa para la desprotonación de uno de los ligandos aqua ha sido determinado mediante una valoración espectrofotométrica ácido-base como 6.7. Este valor tan bajo de pKa se atribuye a la formación de la entidad {Ru2O2H3}, favorable termodinámicamente. Los espectros UV-vis para los distintos estados de oxidación del aqua dímero, de RuIIRuII a RuIIIRuIV, han sido obtenidos por oxidación química y electroquímica del complejo. Se han llevado a cabo estudios cinéticos de la oxidación, paso a paso, de RuII,II a RuIV,IV , y se han determinado las constantes de oxidación de segundo orden para los distintos procesos de oxidación. La capacidad del aqua dímero en la oxidación del agua a oxígeno molecular ha sido investigada en solución homogénea utilizando CeIV como oxidante. La evolución de oxígeno se ha demostrado por cromatografia de gases. Se ha obtenido una eficiencia del 73% y 18.6 ciclos catalíticos, cuando 1.83 x 10-6 moles de dímero se han mezclado con un exceso de 100 equivalentes de cerio. El dímero con dos aguas cataliza también la oxidación del agua de forma heterogénea, con el complejo adsorbido sobre una membrana de nafion, aunque la eficiencia es menor. Se ha propuesto un mecanismo intramolecular para la reacción de oxidación del agua. Consiste en la oxidación a 4 electrones del dímero, de RuII,II a RuIV,IV, el cual reacciona con el agua para formar oxígeno y revierte nuevamente al estado de oxidación II,II. Este modelo es consistente con estudios catalíticos de la evolución de oxígeno en función de las concentraciones de cerio y catalizador, llevados a cabo en solución ácida homogénea, que demuestran que la oxidación a 4 electrones del agua se encuentra catalizada por una sola molécula de complejo bajo concentraciones elevadas de cerio. La constante de pseudo-primer-orden para la evolución de oxígeno tiene un valor de 1.4 x 10-2 s-1, que es uno de los valores de constante más elevados obtenidos hasta la fecha. Desafortunadamente, el aqua dímero se desactiva durante el proceso de catálisis dando lugar a una especie naranja, la cual estamos actualmente tratando de caracterizar.
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Modern methods of spawning new technological motifs are not appropriate when it is desired to realize artificial life as an actual real world entity unto itself (Pattee 1995; Brooks 2006; Chalmers 1995). Many fundamental aspects of such a machine are absent in common methods, which generally lack methodologies of construction. In this paper we mix classical and modern studies in order to attempt to realize an artificial life form from first principles. A model of an algorithm is introduced, its methodology of construction is presented, and the fundamental source from which it sprang is discussed.
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A new model of dispersion has been developed to simulate the impact of pollutant discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the main dispersion processes operating in rivers as well as the dilution from incoming tributaries and first-order kinetic decay processes. The model is dynamic and simulates the hourly behaviour of river flow and pollutants along river systems. The model has been applied to the Aries and Mures River System in Romania and has been used to assess the impacts of potential dam releases from the Roia Montan Mine in Transylvania, Romania. The question of mine water release is investigated under a range of scenarios. The impacts on pollution levels downstream at key sites and at the border with Hungary are investigated.
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The propagation velocity and propagation mechanism for vortices on a β plane are determined for a reduced-gravity model by integrating the momentum equations over the β plane. Isolated vortices, vortices in a background current, and initial vortex propagation from rest are studied. The propagation mechanism for isolated anticyclones as well as cyclones, which has been lacking up to now, is presented. It is shown that, to first order, the vortex moves to generate a Coriolis force on the mass anomaly of the vortex to compensate for the force on the vortex due to the variation of the Coriolis parameter. Only the mass anomaly of the vortex is of importance, because the Coriolis force due to the motion of the bulk of the layer moving with the vortex is almost fully compensated by the Coriolis force on the motion of the exterior flow. Because the mass anomaly of a cyclone is negative the force and acceleration have opposite sign. The role of dipolar structures in steadily moving vortices is discussed, and it is shown that their overall structure is fixed by the steady westward motion of the mass anomaly. Furthermore, it is shown that reduced-gravity vortices are not advected with a background flow. The reason for this behavior is that the background flow changes the ambient vorticity gradient such that the vortex obtains an extra self-propagation term that exactly cancels the advection by the background flow. Last, it is shown that a vortex initially at rest will accelerate equatorward first, after which a westward motion is generated. This result is independent of the sign of the vortex.