993 resultados para Failure Probability


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This paper describes the evolution of crystallographic texture in three of the most important high strength aluminium alloys, viz., AA2219, AA7075 and AFNOR7020 in the cold rolled and artificially aged condition. Bulk texture results were obtained by plotting pole figures from X-ray diffraction results followed by Orientation Distribution Function (ODF) analysis and micro-textures were measured using EBSD. The results indicate that the deformation texture components Cu, Bs and S, which were also present in the starting materials, strengthen with increase in amount of deformation. On the other hand, recrystallization texture components Goss and Cube weaken. The Bs component is stronger in the deformation texture. This is attributed to the shear banding. In-service applications indicate that the as-processed AFNOR7020 alloy fails more frequently compared to the other high strength Al alloys used in the aerospace industry. Detailed study of deformation texture revealed that strong Brass (Bs) component could be associated to shear banding, which in turn could explain the frequent failures in AFNOR7020 alloy. The alloying elements in this alloy that could possibly influence the stacking fault energy of the material could be accounted for the strong Bs component in the texture.

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The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Damage mechanisms in unidirectional (UD) and bi-directional (BD) woven carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminates subjected to four point flexure, both in static and fatigue loadings, were studied. The damage progression in composites was monitored by observing the slopes of the load vs. deflection data that represent the stiffness of the given specimen geometry over a number of cycles. It was observed that the unidirectional composites exhibit gradual loss in stiffness whereas the bidirectional woven composites show a relatively quicker loss during stage II of fatigue damage progression. Both, the static and the fatigue failures in unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites originates due to generation of cracks on compression face while in bidirectional woven composites the damage ensues from both the compression and the tensile faces. These observations are supported by a detailed fractographic analysis.

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We consider carrier frequency offset (CFO) estimation in the context of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) systems over noisy frequency-selective wireless channels with both single- and multiuser scenarios. We conceived a new approach for parameter estimation by discretizing the continuous-valued CFO parameter into a discrete set of bins and then invoked detection theory, analogous to the minimum-bit-error-ratio optimization framework for detecting the finite-alphabet received signal. Using this radical approach, we propose a novel CFO estimation method and study its performance using both analytical results and Monte Carlo simulations. We obtain expressions for the variance of the CFO estimation error and the resultant BER degradation with the single- user scenario. Our simulations demonstrate that the overall BER performance of a MIMO-OFDM system using the proposed method is substantially improved for all the modulation schemes considered, albeit this is achieved at increased complexity.

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UHV power transmission lines have high probability of shielding failure due to their higher height, larger exposure area and high operating voltage. Lightning upward leader inception and propagation is an integral part of lightning shielding failure analysis and need to be studied in detail. In this paper a model for lightning attachment has been proposed based on the present knowledge of lightning physics. Leader inception is modeled based on the corona charge present near the conductor region and the propagation model is based on the correlation between the lightning induced voltage on the conductor and the drop along the upward leader channel. The inception model developed is compared with previous inception models and the results obtained using the present and previous models are comparable. Lightning striking distances (final jump) for various return stroke current were computed for different conductor heights. The computed striking distance values showed good correlation with the values calculated using the equation proposed by the IEEE working group for the applicable conductor heights of up to 8 m. The model is applied to a 1200 kV AC power transmission line and inception of the upward leader is analyzed for this configuration.

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The study introduces two new alternatives for global response sensitivity analysis based on the application of the L-2-norm and Hellinger's metric for measuring distance between two probabilistic models. Both the procedures are shown to be capable of treating dependent non-Gaussian random variable models for the input variables. The sensitivity indices obtained based on the L2-norm involve second order moments of the response, and, when applied for the case of independent and identically distributed sequence of input random variables, it is shown to be related to the classical Sobol's response sensitivity indices. The analysis based on Hellinger's metric addresses variability across entire range or segments of the response probability density function. The measure is shown to be conceptually a more satisfying alternative to the Kullback-Leibler divergence based analysis which has been reported in the existing literature. Other issues addressed in the study cover Monte Carlo simulation based methods for computing the sensitivity indices and sensitivity analysis with respect to grouped variables. Illustrative examples consist of studies on global sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies of a random multi-degree of freedom system, response of a nonlinear frame, and safety margin associated with a nonlinear performance function. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, a methodology to reduce composite structure maintenance operational cost using SHM systems is adressed. Based on SHM real-time data, in-service structure lifetime prognostic and remaining useful lifetime (RUL) can be performed. Maintenance timetable can be therefore predicted by optimizing inspection times. A probabilistic ap-proach is combined with phenomenological fatigue damage models for composite mate-rials to perform maintenance cost-effectiveness of composite structure. A Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the probability of failure of composite structures and com-pute the average number of composite structure components to be replaced over the component lifetime. The replacement frequency of a given structure component over the aircraft lifetime is assessed. A first application of aeronautical composite structure maintenance is considered. Two composite models to predict the fatigue life and several laminates have been used. Our study shows that maintenance cost-effectiveness depends on material and fatigue loading applied.

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Micromachined accelerometer is a kind of inertial MEMS devices, which usually operate under intensive impact loading. The reliability of micromachined accelerometers is one of the most important performance indices for their design, manufacture and commer

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The material response and failure mechanism of unidirectional metal matrix composite under impulsive shear loading are investigated in this paper. Both experimental and analytical studies were performed. The shear strength of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite and A356.0 aluminum alloy at high strain rate were measured with a modified split Hopkinson torsional bar technique. The results indicated that the carbon fibers did not improve the shear strength of aluminum matrix if the fiber orientation aligned with the shear loading axis. The microscopic inspection of the fractured surface showed a multi-scale zigzag feature which implied a complicated shear failure mechanism in the composite. In addition to testing, the micromechanical stress field in the composite was analyzed by the generalized Eshelby equivalent method (GEEM). The influence of cracking in matrix on the micromechanical stress field was investigated as well. The results showed that the stress distribution in the composite is quite nonhomogeneous and very high shear stress concentrations are found in some regions in the matrix. The high shear stress concentration in the matrix induces tensile cracking at 45 degrees to the shear direction. This in turn aggravates the stress concentration at the fiber/matrix interface and finally leads to a catastrophic failure in the composite. From the correlation between the analysis and experimental results, the shear failure mechanism of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite can be elucidated qualitatively.

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A series of acoustic emission (AE) experiments of rock failure have been conducted under cyclic load in tri-axial stress tests. To simulate the hypocenter condition the specimens are loaded by the combined action of a constant stress, intended to simulate

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The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

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In order to reveal the underlying mesoscopic mechanism governing the experimentally observed failure in solids subjected to impact loading, this paper presents a model of statistical microdamage evolution to macroscopic failure, in particular to spallation. Based on statistical microdamage mechanics and experimental measurement of nucleation and growth of microcracks in an Al alloy subjected to plate impact loading, the evolution law of damage and the dynamical function of damage are obtained. Then, a lower bound to damage localization can be derived. It is found that the damage evolution beyond the threshold of damage localization is extremely fast. So, damage localization can serve as a precursor to failure. This is supported by experimental observations. On the other hand, the prediction of failure becomes more accurate, when the dynamic function of damage is fitted with longer experimental observations. We also looked at the failure in creep with the same idea. Still, damage localization is a nice precursor to failure in creep rupture.

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Slip-weakening is one of the characteristics of geological materials under certain loadings. Non-uniform rock structure may exist in the vicinity of the slip surface for a rock slope. Some portion of the slip surface may be penetrated but the other not. For the latter case, the crack or the fault surface will undergo shear deformation before it becomes a successive surface under a certain loading. As the slipped portion advances,slip-weakening occurs over a distance behind the crack tip. In the weakening zone, the shear strength will decrease from its peak value to residual friction level. The stress will redistribute along the surface of crack and in the weakening zone. Thus the changed local stress concentration leads the crack to extend and the ratio of penetration of the slip surface to increase. From the view of large-scale for the whole slip surface, the shear strength will decrease due to the damage of interior rock structure, and the faulted rock behaves as a softening material. Such a kind of mechanism performs in a large number of practical landslides in the zones experienced strong earthquakes. It should be noted that the mechanism mentioned above is different from that of the breakage of structural clay,in which the geological material is regarded as a medium containing structural lumps and structural bands. In this paper, the softening behavior of a faulted rock should be regarded as a comprehensive result of the whole complicated process including slip-weakening, redistribution of stress, extension of crack tip, and the penetration of the slip surface. This process is accompanied by progressive failure and abrupt structural damage. The size of slip-weakening zone is related to the undergoing strain. Once the relative slide is initiated (local or integrated), the effect of slip-weakening will behave in a certain length behind the crack tip until the formation of the whole slip surface.

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For the design of radio frequency micro-electro-mechanical systems (RF MEMS) switches, the reliability issue becomes increasingly important. This paper represents some failure phenomena of doubly supported capacitive RF MEMS switches that include observable destruction failure and directly measurable parameter degradation obtained from the actuating-voltage testing and scanning electron microscope (SEM) observation. The relevant failure modes as well as their failure mechanisms are identified.