Quantile-Based Optimization of Noisy Computer Experiments with Tunable Precision

This article addresses the issue of kriging-based optimization of stochastic simulators. Many of these simulators depend on factors that tune the level of precision of the response, the gain in accuracy being at a price of computational time. The contribution of this work is two-fold: first, we propose a quantile-based criterion for the sequential design of experiments, in the fashion of the classical expected improvement criterion, which allows an elegant treatment of heterogeneous response precisions. Second, we present a procedure for the allocation of the computational time given to each measurement, allowing a better distribution of the computational effort and increased efficiency. Finally, the optimization method is applied to an original application in nuclear criticality safety. This article has supplementary material available online. The proposed criterion is available in the R package DiceOptim.

Preterm birth, infant weight gain, and childhood asthma risk: A meta-analysis of 147,000 European children

BACKGROUND Preterm birth, low birth weight, and infant catch-up growth seem associated with an increased risk of respiratory diseases in later life, but individual studies showed conflicting results. OBJECTIVES We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis for 147,252 children of 31 birth cohort studies to determine the associations of birth and infant growth characteristics with the risks of preschool wheezing (1-4 years) and school-age asthma (5-10 years). METHODS First, we performed an adjusted 1-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the combined associations of gestational age, birth weight, and infant weight gain with childhood asthma. Second, we performed an adjusted 2-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the associations of preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks) and low birth weight (<2500 g) with childhood asthma outcomes. RESULTS Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were independently associated with higher risks of preschool wheezing and school-age asthma (P < .05). The inverse associations of birth weight with childhood asthma were explained by gestational age at birth. Compared with term-born children with normal infant weight gain, we observed the highest risks of school-age asthma in children born preterm with high infant weight gain (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% CI, 2.58-7.76). Preterm birth was positively associated with an increased risk of preschool wheezing (pooled odds ratio [pOR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.43) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67) independent of birth weight. Weaker effect estimates were observed for the associations of low birth weight adjusted for gestational age at birth with preschool wheezing (pOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27). CONCLUSION Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were associated with childhood asthma outcomes. The associations of lower birth weight with childhood asthma were largely explained by gestational age at birth.

Gain-of-function mutation S422L in the KCNJ8-encoded cardiac K(ATP) channel Kir6.1 as a pathogenic substrate for J-wave syndromes.

BACKGROUND J-wave syndromes have emerged conceptually to encompass the pleiotropic expression of J-point abnormalities including Brugada syndrome (BrS) and early repolarization syndrome (ERS). KCNJ8, which encodes the cardiac K(ATP) Kir6.1 channel, recently has been implicated in ERS following identification of the functionally uncharacterized missense mutation S422L. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to further explore KCNJ8 as a novel susceptibility gene for J-wave syndromes. METHODS Using polymerase chain reaction, denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography, and direct DNA sequencing, comprehensive open reading frame/splice site mutational analysis of KCNJ8 was performed in 101 unrelated patients with J-wave syndromes, including 87 with BrS and 14 with ERS. Six hundred healthy individuals were examined to assess the allelic frequency for all variants detected. KCNJ8 mutation(s) was engineered by site-directed mutagenesis and coexpressed heterologously with SUR2A in COS-1 cells. Ion currents were recorded using whole-cell configuration of the patch-clamp technique. RESULTS One BrS case and one ERS case hosted the identical missense mutation S422L, which was reported previously. KCNJ8-S422L involves a highly conserved residue and was absent in 1,200 reference alleles. Both cases were negative for mutations in all known BrS and ERS susceptibility genes. K(ATP) current of the Kir6.1-S422L mutation was increased significantly over the voltage range from 0 to 40 mV compared to Kir6.1-WT channels (n = 16-21; P <.05). CONCLUSION These findings further implicate KCNJ8 as a novel J-wave syndrome susceptibility gene and a marked gain of function in the cardiac K(ATP) Kir6.1 channel secondary to KCNJ8-S422L as a novel pathogenic mechanism for the phenotypic expression of both BrS and ERS.

Saccadic eye movement changes in Parkinson's disease dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies.

Neurodegeneration in Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) affect cortical and subcortical networks involved in saccade generation. We therefore expected impairments in saccade performance in both disorders. In order to improve the pathophysiological understanding and to investigate the usefulness of saccades for differential diagnosis, saccades were tested in age- and education-matched patients with PDD (n = 20) and DLB (n = 20), Alzheimer's disease (n = 22) and Parkinson's disease (n = 24), and controls (n = 24). Reflexive (gap, overlap) and complex saccades (prediction, decision and antisaccade) were tested with electro-oculography. PDD and DLB patients had similar impairment in all tasks (P > 0.05, not significant). Compared with controls, they were impaired in both reflexive saccade execution (gap and overlap latencies, P < 0.0001; gains, P < 0.004) and complex saccade performance (target prediction, P < 0.0001; error decisions, P < 0.003; error antisaccades: P < 0.0001). Patients with Alzheimer's disease were only impaired in complex saccade performance (Alzheimer's disease versus controls, target prediction P < 0.001, error decisions P < 0.0001, error antisaccades P < 0.0001), but not reflexive saccade execution (for all, P > 0.05). Patients with Parkinson's disease had, compared with controls, similar complex saccade performance (for all, P > 0.05) and only minimal impairment in reflexive tasks, i.e. hypometric gain in the gap task (P = 0.04). Impaired saccade execution in reflexive tasks allowed discrimination between DLB versus Alzheimer's disease (sensitivity > or =60%, specificity > or =77%) and between PDD versus Parkinson's disease (sensitivity > or =60%, specificity > or =88%) when +/-1.5 standard deviations was used for group discrimination. We conclude that impairments in reflexive saccades may be helpful for differential diagnosis and are minimal when either cortical (Alzheimer's disease) or nigrostriatal neurodegeneration (Parkinson's disease) exists solely; however, they become prominent with combined cortical and subcortical neurodegeneration in PDD and DLB. The similarities in saccade performance in PDD and DLB underline the overlap between these conditions and underscore differences from Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease.

Educational Expansion and Persistent Inequalities of Education: Utilizing the Subjective Expected Utility Theory to Explain the Increasing Participation Rates in Upper Secondary School in the Federal Republic Of Germany

This investigation attempts to answer the question why more and more parents have chosen the Gymnasium for their children's secondary school education in post‐war West Germany. Based on the theory of subjective expected utility, the crucial mechanisms of parental educational decisions have been emphasized. From this perspective it is assumed that increasing educational motivation coupled with changes in the subjective evaluation of the cost–benefit of education were important conditions for an increasing participation in upper secondary schools. These were, however, in turn, the result of educational expansion. The empirical analyses for three time‐periods in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s confirm these assumptions to a large degree. Additionally, empirical evidence was found to suggest that in addition to the intentions of parents and the educational career of their children, structural moments of educational expansion and their own inertia played an important role in the pupils' transition from one educational level to the next. Finally, evidence was found that persistent class‐specific educational inequality stems from a constant balance in the relative cost–benefit advantages between social classes as well as from an increasing difference of primary origin effect between social classes in the realization of their educational choice.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Parasite- and predator-induced maternal effects in the great tit (Parus major)

Both predators and parasites can elicit behavioral and physiological responses in prey and hosts, respectively. These responses may involve the reallocation of resources and may thus limit each other. We investigated the effects of concurrent pre-laying exposure of great tit females (Parus major) to both a simulated predation risk and a nest-based ectoparasite, the hen flea (Ceratophyllus gallinae), on nestling growth and development. We manipulated perceived predation risk using models and vocalizations of sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus). At the start of incubation, we swapped whole clutches between treated and untreated nests to separate pre-laying maternal effects from posthatching effects. Since costs and benefits of maternal responses to parasites need to be assessed under parasite pressure, we infested half of the rearing nests with hen fleas. Parasites had negative effects on mass gain and wing growth, both via maternal effects and via direct exposure of nestlings, whereas maternal predation risk had no significant effect. The interaction between predator and parasite treatments was not significant and, thus, suggests the absence of a trade-off between the 2 stressors operating at the level of maternal effects. Alternatively, the complexity of the design, despite a relatively large sample size, may have limited the power for detection of this expected trade-off.

Electrochemical simulation of phase I metabolism for 21 drugs using four different working electrodes in an automated screening setup with MS detection.

BACKGROUND Electrochemical conversion of xenobiotics has been shown to mimic human phase I metabolism for a few compounds. MATERIALS & METHODS Twenty-one compounds were analyzed with a semiautomated electrochemical setup and mass spectrometry detection. RESULTS The system was able to mimic some metabolic pathways, such as oxygen gain, dealkylation and deiodination, but many of the expected and known metabolites were not produced. CONCLUSION Electrochemical conversion is a useful approach for the preparative synthesis of some types of metabolites, but as a screening method for unknown phase I metabolites, the method is, in our opinion, inferior to incubation with human liver microsomes and in vivo experiments with laboratory animals, for example.

The joint influence of gender and amount of smoking on weight gain one year after smoking cessation

Weight gain is often associated with smoking cessation and may discourage smokers from quitting. This study estimated the weight gained one year after smoking cessation and examined the risk factors associated with weight gain in order to identify socio-demographic groups at higher risk of increased weight after quitting. We analyzed data from 750 adults in two randomized controlled studies that included smokers motivated to quit and found a gradient in weight gain according to the actual duration of abstinence during follow-up. Subjects who were abstinent for at least 40 weeks gained 4.6 kg (SD = 3.8) on average, compared to 1.2 kg (SD = 2.6) for those who were abstinent less than 20 weeks during the 1-year follow-up. Considering the duration of abstinence as an exposure variable, we found an age effect and a significant interaction between sex and the amount of smoking before quitting: younger subjects gained more weight than older subjects; among light smokers, men gained more weight on average than women one year after quitting, while the opposite was observed among heavy smokers. Young women smoking heavily at baseline had the highest risk of weight gain after quitting.

De novo loss- or gain-of-function mutations in KCNA2 cause epileptic encephalopathy.

Epileptic encephalopathies are a phenotypically and genetically heterogeneous group of severe epilepsies accompanied by intellectual disability and other neurodevelopmental features. Using next-generation sequencing, we identified four different de novo mutations in KCNA2, encoding the potassium channel KV1.2, in six isolated patients with epileptic encephalopathy (one mutation recurred three times independently). Four individuals presented with febrile and multiple afebrile, often focal seizure types, multifocal epileptiform discharges strongly activated by sleep, mild to moderate intellectual disability, delayed speech development and sometimes ataxia. Functional studies of the two mutations associated with this phenotype showed almost complete loss of function with a dominant-negative effect. Two further individuals presented with a different and more severe epileptic encephalopathy phenotype. They carried mutations inducing a drastic gain-of-function effect leading to permanently open channels. These results establish KCNA2 as a new gene involved in human neurodevelopmental disorders through two different mechanisms, predicting either hyperexcitability or electrical silencing of KV1.2-expressing neurons.

Wanting to Get More or Protecting One's Assets: Age-Differential Effects of Gain Versus Loss Perceptions on the Willingness to Engage in Collective Action

OBJECTIVES: The present research examined motivational differences across adulthood that might contribute to age-related differences in the willingness to engage in collective action. Two experiments addressed the role of gain and loss orientation for age-related differences in the willingness to engage in collective action across adulthood. METHOD: In Experiment 1, N = 169 adults (20-85 years) were confronted with a hypothetical scenario that involved either an impending increase or decrease of health insurance costs for their respective age group. In Experiment 2, N = 231 adults (18-83 years) were asked to list an advantage or disadvantage they perceived in being a member of their age group. Subsequently, participants indicated their willingness to engage in collective action on behalf of their age group. RESULTS: Both experiments suggest that, with increasing age, people are more willing to engage in collective action when they are confronted with the prospect of loss or a disadvantage. DISCUSSION: The findings highlight the role of motivational processes for involvement in collective action across adulthood. With increasing age, (anticipated) loss or perceived disadvantages become more important for the willingness to participate in collective action.