Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevatin Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)

High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr-long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb- and 14C-dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S, 70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3 yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca. AD 1400, long-term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

New data on the Lateglacial period of SW Europe: a high resolution multiproxy record from Laguna de la Roya (NW Iberia)

High-resolution multiproxy analyses were performed on a 128 cm section of organic sediments accumulated in a small mountain lake in NW Iberia (Laguna de la Roya, 1608 m asl). The pollen stratigraphy together with radiocarbon dating provided the basis for a chronology ranging from 15,600 to 10,500 cal yr BP. Chironomid-inferred July air temperatures suggest a temperature range from 7 to 13 degrees C, also evidencing two well-established cold periods which may be equivalent to the INTIMATE stages GS-2a and GS-1. Furthermore, a number of short cold events (with summer temperatures dropping about 0.5-1 degrees C) appear intercalated within the Lateglacial Interstadial (possibly equivalent to the INTIMATE cold events GI-1d, GI-1c2 and GI-1b) and the early Holocene (possibly equivalent to the 11.2 k event). The temperature variations predicted by our reconstruction allow explaining the changes in local conditions and productivity of the lake inferred from the biological record of the same sediment core. Furthermore, they also agree with the local and regional vegetation dynamics, and the main oscillations deduced for the vegetation belts. Based on its chronology our multiproxy record indicates a similar temperature development in NW Iberia as inferred by the Greenland delta O-18 record, the marine deep-sea records off the Atlantic Iberian Margin, and other chironomid-based Lateglacial temperature reconstructions from Europe. Nevertheless, the impact of most of the less intense Lateglacial/early Holocene cold events in NW Iberia was most probably limited to very sensitive sites that were very close to ecotonal situations. Particularly, our new pollen record indicates that they were represented as three minor environmental crises occurring during the Lateglacial Interestadial in this area. The Older Dryas event (in our usage corresponding to the Aegelsee Oscillation in Central Europe and event GI-1d in central Greenland) has previously been described in this region, but its age and duration (ca 14,250-14050 cal yr BP) is now better constrained. The two subsequent stages, La Roya I (ca 13,600-13,400 cal yr BP) and La Roya II (ca 13,300-12,900 cal yr BP) have been described for first time in NW Iberia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

Molecular characterisation and expression of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) myoglobin from two populations held at two different acclimation temperatures.

Much previous research has demonstrated the plasticity of myoglobin concentrations in both cardiac and skeletal myocytes in response to hypoxia and training. No study has yet looked at the effect of thermal acclimation on myoglobin in fish. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from two different populations, i.e. the North Sea and the North East Arctic, were acclimated to 10 and 4 degrees C. Both the myoglobin mRNA and myoglobin protein in cod hearts increased significantly by up to 3.7 and 2.3 fold respectively as a result of acclimation to 4 degrees C. These increments were largest in the Arctic population, which in earlier studies have been shown to possess cold compensated metabolic demands at low temperatures. These metabolic demands associated with higher mitochondrial capacities may have driven the increase in cardiac myoglobin concentrations, in order to support diffusive oxygen supply. At the same time the increase in myoglobin levels may serve further functions during cold acclimation, for example, protection of the cell against reactive oxygen species, and scavenging nitric oxide, thereby contributing to the regulation of mitochondrial volume density.

The surface temperatures of Earth: steps towards integrated understanding of variability and change

Surface temperature is a key aspect of weather and climate, but the term may refer to different quantities that play interconnected roles and are observed by different means. In a community-based activity in June 2012, the EarthTemp Network brought together 55 researchers from five continents to improve the interaction between scientific communities who focus on surface temperature in particular domains, to exploit the strengths of different observing systems and to better meet the needs of different communities. The workshop identified key needs for progress towards meeting scientific and societal requirements for surface temperature understanding and information, which are presented in this community paper. A "whole-Earth" perspective is required with more integrated, collaborative approaches to observing and understanding Earth's various surface temperatures. It is necessary to build understanding of the relationships between different surface temperatures, where presently inadequate, and undertake large-scale systematic intercomparisons. Datasets need to be easier to obtain and exploit for a wide constituency of users, with the differences and complementarities communicated in readily understood terms, and realistic and consistent uncertainty information provided. Steps were also recommended to curate and make available data that are presently inaccessible, develop new observing systems and build capacities to accelerate progress in the accuracy and usability of surface temperature datasets.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Exon involvement in the regulation of MuSVts110 RNA splicing

MuSVts110 is a conditionally defective mutant of Moloney murine sarcoma virus which undergoes a novel tmperature-dependent splice event at growth temperatures of 33$\sp\circ$C or lower. Relative to wild-type MuSV-124, MuSVts110 contains a 1487 base deletion spanning from the 3$\sp\prime$ end of the p30 gag coding region to just downstream of the first v-mos initiation codon. As a result, the gag and mos genes are fused out of frame and no v-mos protein is expressed. However, upon a shift to 33$\sp\circ$C or lower, a splice event occurs which removes 431 bases, realigns the gag and mos genes, and allows read-through translation of a P85gag-mos transforming protein. Interestingly, while the cryptic splice sites utilized in MuSVts110 are present and unaltered in MuSV-124, they are never used. Due to the 1487 base deletion, the MuSV-124 intron was reduced from 1919 to 431 bases suggesting that intron size might be involved in the activation of these cryptic splice sites in MuSVts110. Since the splicing phenotype of the MuSVts110 equivalent (TS32 DNA) which contains the identical 1487 base deletion introduced into otherwise wild-type MuSV-124 DNA, was indistinguishable from authentic MuSVts110, it was concluded that this deletion alone is responsible for activation of the cryptic splice sites used in MuSVts110. These results also confirmed that thermodependent splicing is an intrinsic property of the viral RNA and not due to some cellular defect. Furthermore, analysis of gag gene deletion and frameshift MuSVts110 mutants demonstrated that viral gag gene proteins do not play a role in regulation of MuSVts110 splicing. Instead, cis-acting viral sequences appear to mediate regulation of the splice event.^ Our initial observation that truncation of the MuSVts110 transcript, leaving only residual amounts of the flanking exon sequences, completely abolished splicing activity argued that exon sequences might participate in the regulation of the splice event.^ Analysis of exon sequence involvement has also identified cis-acting sequences important in the thermodependence of the splice event. Data suggest that regulation of the MuSVts110 splice event involves multiple interactions between specific intron and exon sequences and spliceosome components which together limit splicing activity to temperatures of 33$\sp\circ$C or lower while simultaneously restricting splicing to a maximum of 50% efficiency. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Tree-ring-reconstructed summer temperatures from northwestern North America during the last nine centuries

Northwestern North America has one of the highest rates of recent temperature increase in the world, but the putative “divergence problem” in dendroclimatology potentially limits the ability of tree-ring proxy data at high latitudes to provide long-term context for current anthropogenic change. Here, summer temperatures are reconstructed from a Picea glauca maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology that shows a stable relationship to regional temperatures and spans most of the last millennium at the Firth River in northeastern Alaska. The warmest epoch in the last nine centuries is estimated to have occurred during the late twentieth century, with average temperatures over the last 30 yr of the reconstruction developed for this study [1973–2002 in the Common Era (CE)] approximately 1.3° ± 0.4°C warmer than the long-term preindustrial mean (1100–1850 CE), a change associated with rapid increases in greenhouse gases. Prior to the late twentieth century, multidecadal temperature fluctuations covary broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing. The findings presented here emphasize that tree-ring proxies can provide reliable indicators of temperature variability even in a rapidly warming climate.

Finite element analyses of human vertebral bodies embedded in polymethylmethalcrylate or loaded via the hyperelastic intervertebral disc models provide equivalent predictions of experimental strength

Quantitative computer tomography (QCT)-based finite element (FE) models of vertebral body provide better prediction of vertebral strength than dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. However, most models were validated against compression of vertebral bodies with endplates embedded in polymethylmethalcrylate (PMMA). Yet, loading being as important as bone density, the absence of intervertebral disc (IVD) affects the strength. Accordingly, the aim was to assess the strength predictions of the classic FE models (vertebral body embedded) against the in vitro and in silico strengths of vertebral bodies loaded via IVDs. High resolution peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) were performed on 13 segments (T11/T12/L1). T11 and L1 were augmented with PMMA and the samples were tested under a 4° wedge compression until failure of T12. Specimen-specific model was generated for each T12 from the HR-pQCT data. Two FE sets were created: FE-PMMA refers to the classical vertebral body embedded model under axial compression; FE-IVD to their loading via hyperelastic IVD model under the wedge compression as conducted experimentally. Results showed that FE-PMMA models overestimated the experimental strength and their strength prediction was satisfactory considering the different experimental set-up. On the other hand, the FE-IVD models did not prove significantly better (Exp/FE-PMMA: R²=0.68; Exp/FE-IVD: R²=0.71, p=0.84). In conclusion, FE-PMMA correlates well with in vitro strength of human vertebral bodies loaded via real IVDs and FE-IVD with hyperelastic IVDs do not significantly improve this correlation. Therefore, it seems not worth adding the IVDs to vertebral body models until fully validated patient-specific IVD models become available.

Antarctic Temperatures Over the Past Two Centuries from Ice Cores

We present a reconstruction of Antarctic mean surface temperatures over the past two centuries based on water stable isotope records from high-resolution, precisely dated ice cores. Both instrumental and reconstructed temperatures indicate large interannual to decadal scale variability, with the dominant pattern being anti-phase anomalies between the main Antarctic continent and the Antarctic Peninsula region. Comparative analysis of the instrumental Southern Hemisphere (SH) mean temperature record and the reconstruction suggests that at longer timescales, temperatures over the Antarctic continent vary in phase with the SH mean. Our reconstruction suggests that Antarctic temperatures have increased by about 0.2 degrees C since the late nineteenth century. The variability and the long-term trends are strongly modulated by the SH Annular Mode in the atmospheric circulation.