A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical comparison of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) blast fragmentation models

Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.

Multimodal species abundance distributions: a deconstruction approach reveals the processes behind the pattern

Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Oikos © 2014 Nordic Society Oikos.

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

Fractional central pattern generators for bipedal locomotion

Locomotion has been a major research issue in the last few years. Many models for the locomotion rhythms of quadrupeds, hexapods, bipeds and other animals have been proposed. This study has also been extended to the control of rhythmic movements of adaptive legged robots. In this paper, we consider a fractional version of a central pattern generator (CPG) model for locomotion in bipeds. A fractional derivative D α f(x), with α non-integer, is a generalization of the concept of an integer derivative, where α=1. The integer CPG model has been proposed by Golubitsky, Stewart, Buono and Collins, and studied later by Pinto and Golubitsky. It is a network of four coupled identical oscillators which has dihedral symmetry. We study parameter regions where periodic solutions, identified with legs’ rhythms in bipeds, occur, for 0<α≤1. We find that the amplitude and the period of the periodic solutions, identified with biped rhythms, increase as α varies from near 0 to values close to unity.

Three-dimensial patchy lattice model: Ring formation and phase separation

We investigate the structural and thermodynamic properties of a model of particles with 2 patches of type A and 10 patches of type B. Particles are placed on the sites of a face centered cubic lattice with the patches oriented along the nearest neighbor directions. The competition between the self- assembly of chains, rings, and networks on the phase diagram is investigated by carrying out a systematic investigation of this class of models, using an extension ofWertheim's theory for associating fluids and Monte Carlo numerical simulations. We varied the ratio r epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) of the interaction between patches A and B, epsilon(AB), and between A patches, epsilon(AA) (epsilon(BB) is set to theta) as well as the relative position of the A patches, i.e., the angle. between the (lattice) directions of the A patches. We found that both r and theta (60 degrees, 90 degrees, or 120 degrees) have a profound effect on the phase diagram. In the empty fluid regime (r < 1/2) the phase diagram is reentrant with a closed miscibility loop. The region around the lower critical point exhibits unusual structural and thermodynamic behavior determined by the presence of relatively short rings. The agreement between the results of theory and simulation is excellent for theta = 120 degrees but deteriorates as. decreases, revealing the need for new theoretical approaches to describe the structure and thermodynamics of systems dominated by small rings. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

Simulation of the velocity field in compound channel flow using different closure models

1st European IAHR Congress,6-4 May, Edinburg, Scotland

Estimation of 3D shapes using active surface models

This paper addresses the estimation of surfaces from a set of 3D points using the unified framework described in [1]. This framework proposes the use of competitive learning for curve estimation, i.e., a set of points is defined on a deformable curve and they all compete to represent the available data. This paper extends the use of the unified framework to surface estimation. It o shown that competitive learning performes better than snakes, improving the model performance in the presence of concavities and allowing to desciminate close surfaces. The proposed model is evaluated in this paper using syntheticdata and medical images (MRI and ultrasound images).

Polyglutamine diseases (PolyQ): construction and characterization of yeast models

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Stochastic modelling of the reservoir lithological and petrophysical attributes. A case study of the Middle East carbonate reservoir

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Spatial point pattern analysis of gorilla nest sites in the Kagwene Sanctuary, Cameroon: Towards understanding the nesting behavior of a critically endangered subspecies

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Stochastic modeling of the thermal and catalytic degradation of polyethylene using simultaneous DSC/TG analysis

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Dynamic adaptation of interaction models for stateful web services

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Synthesis, antiangiogenesis evaluation and molecular docking studies of 1-Aryl-3-[(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas: Discovery of a new substitution pattern for type II VEGFR-2 Tyr kinase inhibitors

The synthesis and biological evaluation of novel 1-aryl-3-[2-, 3- or 4-(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas 3, 4 and 5 as VEGFR-2 tyrosine kinase inhibitors, are reported. The 1-aryl-3-[3-(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas 4a-4h, with the arylurea in the meta position to the thioether, showed the lowest IC50 values in enzymatic assays (10-206 nM), the most potent compounds 4d-4h (IC50 10-28 nM) bearing hydrophobic groups (Me, F, CF3 and Cl) in the terminal phenyl ring. A convincing rationalization was achieved for the highest potent compounds 4 as type II VEGFR-2 inhibitors, based on the simultaneous presence of: (1) the thioether linker and (2) the arylurea moiety in the meta position. For compounds 4, significant inhibition of Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) proliferation (BrdU assay), migration (wound-healing assay) and tube formation were observed at low concentrations. These compounds have also shown to increase apoptosis using the TUNEL assay. Immunostaining for total and phosphorylated (active) VEGFR-2 was performed by Western blotting. The phosphorylation of the receptor was significantly inhibited at 1.0 and 2.5 microM for the most promising compounds. Altogether, these findings point to an antiangiogenic effect in HUVECs.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).