973 resultados para Empirical Bayes Methods


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The principal aim of this paper is to measure the amount by which the profit of a multi-input, multi-output firm deviates from maximum short-run profit, and then to decompose this profit gap into components that are of practical use to managers. In particular, our interest is in the measurement of the contribution of unused capacity, along with measures of technical inefficiency, and allocative inefficiency, in this profit gap. We survey existing definitions of capacity and, after discussing their shortcomings, we propose a new ray economic capacity measure that involves short-run profit maximisation, with the output mix held constant. We go on to describe how the gap between observed profit and maximum profit can be calculated and decomposed using linear programming methods. The paper concludes with an empirical illustration, involving data on 28 international airline companies. The empirical results indicate that these airline companies achieve profit levels which are on average US$815m below potential levels, and that 70% of the gap may be attributed to unused capacity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this study we use region-level panel data on rice production in Vietnam to investigate total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the period since reunification in 1975. Two significant reforms were introduced during this period, one in 1981 allowing farmers to keep part of their produce, and another in 1987 providing improved land tenure. We measure TFP growth using two modified forms of the standard Malmquist data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, which we have named the Three-year-window (TYW) and the Full Cumulative (FC) methods. We have developed these methods to deal with degrees of freedom limitations. Our empirical results indicate strong average TFP growth of between 3.3 and 3.5 per cent per annum, with the fastest growth observed in the period following the first reform. Our results support the assertion that incentive related issues have played a large role in the decline and subsequent resurgence of Vietnamese agriculture.

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Control of chaotic instability in a rotating multibody system in the form of a dual-spin spacecraft with an axial nutational damper is achieved using an algorithm derived using energy methods. The control method is implemented on two realistic spacecraft parameter configurations which have been found to exhibit chaotic instability when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies. Such a torque, in practice, may arise under malfunction of the control system or from an unbalanced rotor. Chaotic instabilities arising from these torques could introduce uncertainties and irregularities into a spacecraft's attitude and consequently impair pointing accuracy. The control method is formulated from nutational stability results derived using an energy sink approximation for a dual-spin spacecraft with an asymmetric platform and axisymmetric rotor. The effectiveness of the control method is shown numerically and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents and Bifurcation diagrams.

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Improvements to peroxide oxidation methods for analysing acid sulfate soils (ASS) are introduced. The soil solution ratio has been increased to 1 : 40, titrations are performed in suspension, and the duration of the peroxide digest stage is substantially shortened. For 9 acid sulfate soils, the peroxide oxidisable sulfur value obtained using the improved method was compared with the reduced inorganic sulfur result obtained using the chromium reducible sulfur method. Their regression was highly significant, the slope of the regression line was not significantly different (P = 0.05) from unity, and the intercept not significantly different from zero. A complete sulfur budget for the improved method showed there was no loss of sulfur as has been reported for earlier peroxide oxidation techniques. When soils were very finely ground, efficient oxidation of sulfides was achieved, despite the milder digestion conditions. Highly sulfidic and organic soils were shown to be the most difficult to analyse using either the improved method or the chromium method. No single analytical method can be universally applied to all ASS, rather a suite of methods is necessary for a thorough understanding of many ASS. The improved peroxide method, in combination with the chromium method and the 4 M HCl extraction, form a sound platform for informed decision making on the management of acid sulfate soils.

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In this paper we construct predictor-corrector (PC) methods based on the trivial predictor and stochastic implicit Runge-Kutta (RK) correctors for solving stochastic differential equations. Using the colored rooted tree theory and stochastic B-series, the order condition theorem is derived for constructing stochastic RK methods based on PC implementations. We also present detailed order conditions of the PC methods using stochastic implicit RK correctors with strong global order 1.0 and 1.5. A two-stage implicit RK method with strong global order 1.0 and a four-stage implicit RK method with strong global order 1.5 used as the correctors are constructed in this paper. The mean-square stability properties and numerical results of the PC methods based on these two implicit RK correctors are reported.

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This paper presents results on the simulation of the solid state sintering of copper wires using Monte Carlo techniques based on elements of lattice theory and cellular automata. The initial structure is superimposed onto a triangular, two-dimensional lattice, where each lattice site corresponds to either an atom or vacancy. The number of vacancies varies with the simulation temperature, while a cluster of vacancies is a pore. To simulate sintering, lattice sites are picked at random and reoriented in terms of an atomistic model governing mass transport. The probability that an atom has sufficient energy to jump to a vacant lattice site is related to the jump frequency, and hence the diffusion coefficient, while the probability that an atomic jump will be accepted is related to the change in energy of the system as a result of the jump, as determined by the change in the number of nearest neighbours. The jump frequency is also used to relate model time, measured in Monte Carlo Steps, to the actual sintering time. The model incorporates bulk, grain boundary and surface diffusion terms and includes vacancy annihilation on the grain boundaries. The predictions of the model were found to be consistent with experimental data, both in terms of the microstructural evolution and in terms of the sintering time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Introduction Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a useful field measure to estimate total body water (TBW). No prediction formulae have been developed or validated against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the agreement between three prediction equations for the estimation of TBW in cachectic patients with pancreatic cancer. Methods Resistance was measured at frequencies of 50 and 200 kHz in 18 outpatients (10 males and eight females, age 70.2 +/- 11.8 years) with pancreatic cancer from two tertiary Australian hospitals. Three published prediction formulae were used to calculate TBW - TBWs developed in surgical patients, TBWca-uw and TBWca-nw developed in underweight and normal weight patients with end-stage cancer. Results There was no significant difference in the TBW estimated by the three prediction equations - TBWs 32.9 +/- 8.3 L, TBWca-nw 36.3 +/- 7.4 L, TBWca-uw 34.6 +/- 7.6 L. At a population level, there is agreement between prediction of TBW in patients with pancreatic cancer estimated from the three equations. The best combination of low bias and narrow limits of agreement was observed when TBW was estimated from the equation developed in the underweight cancer patients relative to the normal weight cancer patients. When no established BIA prediction equation exists, practitioners should utilize an equation developed in a population with similar critical characteristics such as diagnosis, weight loss, body mass index and/or age. Conclusions Further research is required to determine the accuracy of the BIA prediction technique against a reference method in patients with pancreatic cancer.

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This paper outlines a major empirical study that is being undertaken by an interdisciplinary team into genetic discrimination in Australia. The 3-year study will examine the nature and extent of this newly emerging phenomenon across the perspectives of consumers, third parties, and the legal system and will analyze its social and legal dimensions. Although the project is confined to Australia, it is expected that the outcomes will have significance for the wider research community as this is the most substantial study of its kind to be undertaken to date into genetic discrimination.

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This study explores several important aspects of the management of new product development (NPD) in the Chinese steel industry. Specifically it explores NPD success factors, the importance of management functions to new product success and measures of new product success from the perspective of the industry's practitioners. Based on a sample of 190 industrial practitioners from 18 Chinese steel companies, the study provides a mixed picture as China makes the transition from a centrally-controlled to market-based economy. On one hand, respondents ranked understanding users' needs as the most important factor influencing the performance of the new products. Further, formulating new product strategy and strengthening market research are perceived as the most important managerial functions in NPD. However, technical performance measures are regarded as more important and are more widely used in industry than market-based or financial measures of success.