Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines

A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.

Structure and stability of two polymorphs of creatine and its monohydrate

An experimental search for crystalline forms of creatine including a variable temperature X-ray powder diffraction study has produced three polymorphs and a formic acid solvate. The crystal structures of creatine forms I and II were determined from X-ray powder diffraction data plus the creatine formic acid (1 : 1) solvate structure was obtained by single crystal X-ray diffraction methods. Evidence of a third polymorphic form of creatine obtained by rapid desolvation of creatine monohydrate is also presented. The results highlight the role of automated parallel crystallisation, slurry experiments and VT-XRPD as powerful techniques for effective physical form screening. They also highlight the importance of various complementary analytical techniques in structural characterisation and in achieving better understanding of the relationship between various solid-state forms. The structural relationships between various solid-state forms of creatine using the XPac method provided a rationale for the different relative stabilities of forms I and II of creatine with respect to the monohydrate form.

Improving mood with psychoanalytic and cognitive therapies (IMPACT): a pragmatic effectiveness superiority trial to investigate whether specialised psychological treatment reduces the risk for relapse in adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar depression: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Up to 70% of adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar major depression respond to psychological treatment plus Fluoxetine (20-50 mg) with symptom reduction and improved social function reported by 24 weeks after beginning treatment. Around 20% of non responders appear treatment resistant and 30% of responders relapse within 2 years. The specific efficacy of different psychological therapies and the moderators and mediators that influence risk for relapse are unclear. The cost-effectiveness and safety of psychological treatments remain poorly evaluated. Methods/Design Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies, the IMPACT Study, will determine whether Cognitive Behavioural Therapy or Short Term Psychoanalytic Therapy is superior in reducing relapse compared with Specialist Clinical Care. The study is a multicentre pragmatic effectiveness superiority randomised clinical trial: Cognitive Behavioural Therapy consists of 20 sessions over 30 weeks, Short Term Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy 30 sessions over 30 weeks and Specialist Clinical Care 12 sessions over 20 weeks. We will recruit 540 patients with 180 randomised to each arm. Patients will be reassessed at 6, 12, 36, 52 and 86 weeks. Methodological aspects of the study are systematic recruitment, explicit inclusion criteria, reliability checks of assessments with control for rater shift, research assessors independent of treatment team and blind to randomization, analysis by intention to treat, data management using remote data entry, measures of quality assurance, advanced statistical analysis, manualised treatment protocols, checks of adherence and competence of therapists and assessment of cost-effectiveness. We will also determine whether time to recovery and/or relapse are moderated by variations in brain structure and function and selected genetic and hormone biomarkers taken at entry. Discussion The objective of this clinical trial is to determine whether there are specific effects of specialist psychotherapy that reduce relapse in unipolar major depression in adolescents and thereby costs of treatment to society. We also anticipate being able to utilise psychotherapy experience, neuroimaging, genetic and hormone measures to reveal what techniques and their protocols may work best for which patients.

DENSITY PROFILE, VELOCITY ANISOTROPY, AND LINE-OF-SIGHT EXTERNAL CONVERGENCE OF SLACS GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

Projectile breakup dynamics for (6)Li+(59)Co: Kinematical analysis of alpha-d coincidences

A study of the kinematics of the alpha-d coincidences in the (6)Li + (59)Co system at a bombarding energy of E(lab) = 29.6MeV is presented. With exclusive measurements performed over different angular intervals it is possible to identify the respective contributions of the sequential and direct projectile breakup components. The angular distributions of both breakup components are fairly well described by the Continuum-Discretized Coupled-Channels framework (CDCC). Furthermore, a careful analysis of these processes using a semiclassical approach provides information on both their lifetime and their distance of occurrence with respect to the target. Breakup to the low-lying (near-threshold) continuum is delayed, and happens at large internuclear distances. This suggests that the influence of the projectile breakup on the complete fusion process can be related essentially to the direct breakup to the (6)Li high-lying continuum spectrum.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

The private memory of aggregate shocks

We study constrained efficient aggregate risk sharing and its consequence for the behavior of macro-aggregates in a dynamic Mirrlees’s (1971) setting. Privately observed idiosyncratic productivity shocks are assumed to be independent of i.i.d. publicly observed aggregate shocks. Yet, private allocations display memory with respect to past aggregate shocks, when idosyncratic shocks are also i.i.d.. Under a mild restriction on the nature of optimal allocations the result extends to more persistent idiosyncratic shocks, for all but the limit at which idiosyncratic risk disappears, and the model collapses to a pure heterogeneity repeated Mirrlees economy identical to Werning [2007]. When preferences are iso-elastic we show that an allocation is memoryless only if it displays a strong form of separability with respect to aggregate shocks. Separability characterizes the pure heterogeneity limit as well as the general case with log preferences. With less than full persistence and risk aversion different from unity both memory and non-separability characterize optimal allocations. Exploiting the fact that non-separability is associated with state-varying labor wedges, we apply a business cycle accounting procedure (e.g. Chari et al. [2007]) to the aggregate data generated by the model. We show that, whenever risk aversion is great than one our model produces efficient counter-cyclical labor wedges.

Growth process in business and social entrepreneurship: the case of Brazil

The purpose of the dissertation is to investigate in depth the difference between the challenges social and business entrepreneurs face in the growth phase of their business in the particular environment of Brazil. This objective has been achieved through a two-steps methodology. The first step is a set of in-depth interviews carried out with industry experts such as professors, venture capitalists, consultants, fund managers or people involved in the support of growing startups (i.e. accelerators). These interviews allowed, first, to build a general perspective on the environment entrepreneurs operate into and to identify a list of challenges entrepreneurs face in the growth process of their business. This list was completed with the additional challenges identified in the previous literature. The second step of the methodology was to test the relevance of these challenges in the mind and experience of social and traditional entrepreneurs. A questionnaire was then submitted to 145 social and 286 traditional entrepreneurs. The results were statistically analyzed to test the relative relevance of these challenges for one group of entrepreneurs with respect to the other. The outcome of the analysis was significant. The most relevant challenges identified were, for both groups, taxation, bureaucracy, finding the right employees, creating effective teams, measuring firm performance and social value creation and obtaining funds. On the other side motivation, innovation, competition and lack of market space for growth represented the least relevant issues in the minds of entrepreneurs. This rank however did not differ significantly from social to traditional entrepreneurs. This testifies that in Brazil social and traditional entrepreneurs face the same set of challenges despite the widespread belief of the opposite.

Influence of laparoscopy and laparotomy on gasometry, leukocytes and cytokines in a rat abdominal sepsis model

Laparoscopic surgery is associated with reduced surgical trauma, and less acute phase response, as compared with open surgery. Cytokines are important regulators of the biological response to surgical and anesthetic stress. The aim of this study was to determine if CO2 pneumoperitoneum would change cytokine expression, gas parameters and leukocyte count in septic rats. Methods: Wistar rats were randomly assigned to five groups: control (anesthesia only), laparotomy, CO2 pneumoperitoneum, cecum ligation and puncture by laparotomy, and laparoscopic cecum ligation and puncture. After 30 min of the procedures, arterial blood samples were obtained to determine leukocytes subpopulations by hemocytometer. TNFα, IL-1β, IL-6 were determined in intraperitoneal fluid (by ELISA). Gas parameters were measured on arterial blood, intraperitoneal and subperitoneal exsudates. Results: Peritoneal TNFα, IL-1β and IL-6 concentrations were lower in pneumoperitoneum rats than in all other groups (p<0.05). TNFα, IL-1β and IL-6 expression was lower in the laparoscopic than in laparotomic sepsis (p<0.05). Rats from laparoscopic cecum ligation and puncture group developed significant hypercarbic acidosis in blood and subperitoneal fluid when compared to open procedure group. Total white blood cells and lymphocytes were significantly lower in laparoscopic cecum ligation and puncture rats than in the laparotomic (p<0.01). Nevertheless, the laparotomic cecum ligation rats had a significant increase in blood neutrophils and eosinophils when compared with controls (p<0.05). Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the CO2 pneumoperitoneum reduced the inflammatory response in an animal model of peritonitis with respect to intraperitoneal cytokines, white blood cell count and clinical correlates of sepsis. The pneumoperitoneum produced hypercarbic acidosis in septic animals

Fatores críticos de sucesso das empresas familiares: uma abordagem competitiva

The present objective study to inside identify the critical factors of success of the local family companies of a competitive boarding. For in such a way the same it understands the culture and the management of the family companies of success, identifies the essential areas of performance, it establishes the restrictive factors of the success, and analyzes the level of influence of the critical factors of success in the competitiveness of this type of company. In function of the subject little to be explored, and of this study to provide a general vision concerning the factors that take the family companies to get success, this research is explorer. On the other hand, for describing characteristic of the familiar companies in prominence in the local scene and for being worried about the practical performance, the same one also is descriptive. The sample in turn is the not-probabilist one of the intentional type, for accessibility. For operacionalization of the collection of data, the direct contact was used, being the composed instrument of research for variable as management, culture, critical factors of success and competitiveness. The study it evidences that in regards to the management and the culture of the family companies of success, some variable are turned aside from the standard of the conventional family companies cited by literature. Of general form in the familiar companies of success it has a bigger level of professionalization of the management. As for the value given to the knowledge, the study sample that the conventional family companies give little importance to it, in contrast of the family companies in prominence, who value of significant form the search for the knowledge. He is demonstrated despite the family companies of success, even so total are not professionalized, possess a bigger level of professionalization of the management, ratifying of certain forms the reason for which the majority develops the Strategical Planning formal periodically. In short, the results point 17 critical factors of success with respect to the family companies, in special factors as the product quality and services, and the use of the technology

O Cariri cearense: da ocupação do território à institucionalização da região metropolitana do Cariri

Urbanization in their mearing simpler, the agglomeration of people, occurred from the time that the productive activities have to be based on trade. The first cities arose when the evolution of agriculture allowed the production and storage of surpluses. However, with industrialization was that urbanization becomes intense, according to Singer (1987), the industrial revolution was to stage, from the beginning, the urban area. It requires, in its proximity, the presence of a large number of workers. With respect to the Cariri cearense, the occupation of its territory is associated with the movement of agricultural surpluses produced and reproduced under the hegemony of merchant capital and due to the development of extensive cattle that promoted the territorial occupation of Ceará. From the 1960s, the region has undergone changes in its productive structure due to industrial planning policies of the government of Ceará. However it was in the 1990s that the region itself as economic and urban polo because policies to attract investments from the state government of Ceará. This policy led to boosting trade and services marking the predominance of tertiary activities in the region, especially the retail, wholesale , medical services and education. Investments also consolidated the industrial park area making it diverse, especially the footwear industries, mining, non-metallic minerals, transport equipment, pharmaceutical chemical, food and beverages, rubber and leather and construction. Thus, the aim of this study was to review the region of Cariri cearense occupation of its territory institutionalizing its metropolitan region, to understand what factors influenced the Cariri cearense become an important area in urban and economic terms in the interior of Ceará. In order to develop this research in that refers to the methodological perspective, research is guided by bibliographic studies and also makes use of secondary data analysis (population, GDP, urbanization rate, employment) of the main databases the country, as IBGE, IPEADATA and RAIS - MTE

Sex Trade Involvement in São Paulo, Brazil and Toronto, Canada: Narratives of Social Exclusion and Fragmented Identities

An extensive international literature has been developed regarding the risk trajectories of sex trade-involved children and youth. This literature has not, however, substantially incorporated the narratives of youths regarding their experiences. In this article, the contemporary literature on child and youth sex trade-involvement is reviewed and the findings of a qualitative analysis of the narratives of 14 youth from São Paulo, Brazil and 58 youth from Toronto, Canada are presented. Substantial similarities were found between the groups of narratives with respect to abusive and unstable home experiences, pathways into the sex trade, social exclusion, and the impacts of the sex trade on physical and mental health. Key areas of divergence included the roles of poverty and drug use in entering the sex trade. The implications of shared experiences of social exclusion and fragmented identity across differing sociocultural contexts for policy and intervention are discussed.

Effect of vesicles of dimethyldioctadecylammonium chloride and phospholipids on the rate of decarboxylation of 6-nitrobenzisoxazole-3-carboxylate

Sonicated mixtures of dimethyldioctadecylammonium chloride (DODAC), egg phosphatidylcholine (PC), dimyristoyl phosphatidylcholine (DMPC), and dipalmitoyl phosphatidylcholine (DPPC) were used to analyze vesicle effects on the rate of decarboxylation of 6-nitrobenzisoxazol-3-carboxylic acid (Nboc). Electron microscopic images of the vesicles were obtained with trehalose, a know cryoprotector. Phase diagrams and phase transitions temperatures of the vesicle bilayers were determined. Nboc decarboxylation rates increased in the presence of vesicles prepared with both phospholipids and DODAC/phospholipid mixtures. Quantitative analysis of vesicular effects was done using pseudophase models. Phospholipids catalyzed up to 140-fold while the maximum catalysis by DODAC/lipid vesicles reached 800-fold. Acceleration depends on alkyl chain length, fatty acid insaturation of the lipids, and the DODAC/phospholipid molar ratio. Catalysis is not related to the liquid crystalline-gel state of the bilayer and may be related to the relative position of Nboc with respect to the interface.

Continuous peritoneal dialysis compared with daily hemodialysis in patients with acute kidney injury

Background: In some parts of the world, peritoneal dialysis is widely used for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI), despite concerns about its inadequacy. It has been replaced in recent years by hemodialysis and, most recently, by continuous venovenous therapies. We performed a prospective study to determine the effect of continuous peritoneal dialysis (CPD), as compared with daily hemodialysis (dHD), on survival among patients with AKI.Methods: A total of 120 patients with acute tubular necrosis (ATN) were assigned to receive CPD or dHD in a tertiary-care university hospital. The primary endpoint was hospital survival rate; renal function recovery and metabolic, acid-base, and fluid controls were secondary endpoints.Results: of the 120 patients, 60 were treated with CPD (G1) and 60 with dHD (G2). The two groups were similar at the start of RRT with respect to age (64.2 +/- 19.8 years vs 62.5 +/- 21.2 years), sex (men: 72% vs 66%), sepsis (42% vs 47%), shock (61% vs 63%), severity of AKI [Acute Tubular Necrosis Individual Severity Score (ATNISS): 0.68 +/- 0.2 vs 0.66 +/- 0.22; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II: 26.9 +/- 8.9 vs 24.1 +/- 8.2], pre-dialysis blood urea nitrogen [BUN (116.4 +/- 33.6 mg/dL vs 112.6 +/- 36.8 mg/dL)], and creatinine (5.85 +/- 1.9 mg/dL vs 5.95 +/- 1.4 mg/dL). In G1, weekly delivered Kt/V was 3.59 +/- 0.61, and in G2, it was 4.76 +/- 0.65 (p < 0.01). The two groups were similar in metabolic and acid-base control (after 4 sessions, BUN < 55 mg/dL: 46 +/- 18.7 mg/dL vs 52 +/- 18.2 mg/dL; pH: 7.41 vs 7.38; bicarbonate: 22.8 +/- 8.9 mEq/L vs 22.2 +/- 7.1 mEq/L). Duration of therapy was longer in G2 (5.5 days vs 7.5 days; p = 0.02). Despite the delivery of different dialysis methods and doses, the survival rate did not differ between the groups (58% in G1 vs 52% in G2), and recovery of renal function was similar (28% vs 26%).Conclusion: High doses of CPD provided appropriate metabolic and pH control, with a rate of survival and recovery of renal function similar to that seen with dHD. Therefore, CPD can be considered an alternative to other forms of RRT in AKI.

O segredo da longevidade segundo as percepções dos próprios longevos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)