Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Experimental methodology report

In architectural design and the construction industry, there is insufficient evidence about the way designers collaborate in their normal working environments using both traditional and digital media. It is this gap in empirical evidence that the CRC project, “Team Collaboration in High Bandwidth Virtual Environments” addresses. The project is primarily, but not exclusively, concerned with the conceptual stages of design carried out by professional designers working in different offices. The aim is to increase opportunities for communication and interaction between people in geographically distant locations in order to improve the quality of collaboration. In order to understand the practical implications of introducing new digital tools on working practices, research into how designers work collaboratively using both traditional and digital media is being undertaken. This will involve a series of empirical studies in the work places of the industry partners in the project. The studies of collaboration processes will provide empirical results that will lead to more effective use of virtual environments in design and construction processes. The report describes the research approach, the industry study, the methods for data collection and analysis and the foundation research methodologies. A distinctive aspect is that the research has been devised to enable field studies to be undertaken in a live industrial environment where the participant designers carry out real projects alongside their colleagues and in familiar locations. There are two basic research objectives: one is to obtain evidence about design practice that will inform the architecture and construction industries about the impact and potential benefit of using digital collaboration technologies; the second is to add to long term research knowledge of human cognitive and behavioural processes based on real world data. In order to achieve this, the research methods must be able to acquire a rich and heterogeneous set of data from design activities as they are carried out in the normal working environment. This places different demands upon the data collection and analysis methods to those of laboratory studies where controlled conditions are required. In order to address this, the research approach that has been adopted is ethnographic in nature and case study-based. The plan is to carry out a series of indepth studies in order to provide baseline results for future research across a wider community of user groups. An important objective has been to develop a methodology that will produce valid, significant and transferable results. The research will contribute to knowledge about how architectural design and the construction industry may benefit from the introduction of leading edge collaboration technologies. The outcomes will provide a sound foundation for the production of guidelines for the assessment of high bandwidth tools and their future deployment. The knowledge will form the basis for the specification of future collaboration products and collaboration processes. This project directly addresses the industry-identified focus on cultural change, image, e-project management, and innovative methods.

Wrong way, go back! Negotiating success in industry-based research

Literature addressing methodological issues in organisational research is extensive and multidisciplinary, encompassing debates about methodological choices, data-collection techniques, epistemological approaches and statistical procedures. However, little scholarship has tackled an important aspect of organisational research that precedes decisions about data collection and analysis – access to the organisations themselves, including the people, processes and documents within them. This chapter looks at organisational access through the experiences of three research fellows in the course of their work with their respective industry partners. In doing so, it reveals many of the challenges and changing opportunities associated with access to organisations, which are rarely explicitly addressed, but often assumed, in traditional methods texts and journal publications. Although the level of access granted varied somewhat across the projects at different points in time and according to different organisational contexts, we shared a number of core and consistent experiences in attempting to collect data and implement strategies.

Women's participation in the Australian Digital Content Industry : initial case study findings

An exploratory case study which seeks to understand better the problem of low participation rates of women in Information Communication Technology (ICT) is currently being conducted in Queensland, Australia. Contextualised within the Digital Content Industry (DCI) multimedia and games production sectors, the emphasis is on women employed as interactive content creators rather than as users of the technologies. Initial findings provide rich descriptive insights into the perceptions and experiences of female DCI professionals. Influences on participation such as: existing gender ratios, gender and occupational stereotypes, access into the industry and future parental responsibilities have emerged from the data. Bandura’s (1999) Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) is used as a “scaffold” (Walsham, 1995:76) to guide data analysis and assist analytic generalisation of the case study findings. We propose that the lens of human agency and theories such as SCT assist in explaining how influences are manifested and affect women’s agency and ultimately participation in the DCI. The Sphere of Influence conceptual model (Geneve et al, 2008), which emerges from the data and underpinning theory, is proposed as a heuristic framework to further explore influences on women’s participation in the DCI industry context.

Facilities management action agenda : the Australian government and industry working together for improvement

This paper provides an overview of the Australian Government’s Facilities Management (FM) Action Agenda as announced in 2004 as a key policy plank designed to facilitate growth of the FM industry. The resulting consultation with industry leaders has seen the criterion and release in April 2005 of the FM Action Agenda’s strategic plan entitled ‘Managing the Built Environment’. This framework, representing a collaboration between the Australian Government, public and private sector stakeholders and Facility Management Association of Australia (FMA Australia) and other allied bodies, sets out to achieve the vision of a more “…productive and sustainable built environment…” through improved innovation, education and standards. The 36 month implementation phase is now underway and will take a multi-pronged approach to enhancing the recognition of the FM industry and removing impediments to its growth with a 20 point action plan across the following platforms: • Innovation – Improved appreciation of facility life cycles, and greater understanding of the key drivers of workplace productivity, and the improved application of information technology. • Education and Training – Improved access to dedicated FM education and training opportunities and creation clear career pathways into the profession. • Regulatory Reform – Explore opportunities to harmonise cross jurisdictional regulatory compliance requirements that have an efficiency impact on FM. • Sustainability – Improved utilization of existing knowledge and the development of tools and opportunities to improve the environmental performance of facilities. Additional information is available at www.fma.com.au

Uptake of an OHS code of practice by construction firms : barriers and enablers in an Australian industry

The Australian construction industry, reflecting a global trend, is moving towards the implementation of a voluntary code of practice (hereafter VCP) for occupational health and safety. The evidence suggests that highlyvisible clients and project management firms, in addition to their subcontractors, look set to embrace such a code. However, smaller firms not operating in high-profile contracting regimes may prove reticent to adopt a VCP. This paper incorporates qualitative data from a high-profile research project commissioned by Engineers Australia and supported by the Australian Contractors’ Association, Property Council of Australia, Royal Australian Institute of Architects, Association of Consulting Engineers Australia, Australian Procurement and Construction Council, Master Builders Australia and the Australian CRC for Construction Innovation. The paper aims to understand the factors that facilitate or prevent the uptake of the VCP by smaller firms, together with pathways to the adoption of a VCP by industry.

Safer construction : the development of a voluntary code of practice to improve safety performance in the Australian construction industry

In Australia, between 1994 and 2000, 50 construction workers were killed each year as a result of their work, the industry fatality rate, at 10.4 per 100,000 persons, is similar to the national road toll fatality rate and the rate of serious injury is 50% higher than the all industries average. This poor performance represents a significant threat to the industry’s social sustainability. Despite the best efforts of regulators and policy makers at both State and Federal levels, the incidence of death, injury and illness in the Australian construction industry has remained intransigently high, prompting an industry-led initiative to improve the occupational health and safety (OHS) performance of the Australian construction industry. The ‘Safer Construction’ project involves the development of an evidence-based Voluntary Code of Practice for OHS in the industry.

A45 ICT curriculum design to bridge the gap between industry and academia

Building Information Model (BIM) software, collaboration platforms and 5D Construction Management software is now commercially available and presents the opportunity for construction project teams to design more cost effectively, plan construction earlier, manage costs throughout the life cycle of a building project and provide a central asset management register for facilities managers. This paper outlines the merits of taking a holistic view of ICT in curriculum design. The educational barriers to implementation of these models and planning tools are highlighted. Careful choice of computer software can make a significant difference to how quickly students can master skills; how easy it is to study and how much they enjoy learning and be prepared for employment. An argument for BIM and 5D planning tools to be introduced into the curriculum to assist industry increase productivity and efficiencies are outlined by the authors.

LCADesign : an integrated approach to automatic eco-efficiency assessment of commercial buildings

Buildings consume resources and energy, contribute to pollution of our air, water and soil, impact the health and well-being of populations and constitute an important part of the built environment in which we live. The ability to assess their design with a view to reducing that impact automatically from their 3D CAD representations enables building design professionals to make informed decisions on the environmental impact of building structures. Contemporary 3D object-oriented CAD files contain a wealth of building information. LCADesign has been designed as a fully integrated approach for automated eco-efficiency assessment of commercial buildings direct from 3D CAD. LCADesign accesses the 3D CAD detail through Industry Foundation Classes (IFCs) - the international standard file format for defining architectural and constructional CAD graphic data as 3D real-world objects - to permit construction professionals to interrogate these intelligent drawing objects for analysis of the performance of a design. The automated take-off provides quantities of all building components whose specific production processes, logistics and raw material inputs, where necessary, are identified to calculate a complete list of quantities for all products such as concrete, steel, timber, plastic etc and combines this information with the life cycle inventory database, to estimate key internationally recognised environmental indicators such as CML, EPS and Eco-indicator 99. This paper outlines the key modules of LCADesign and their role in delivering an automated eco-efficiency assessment for commercial buildings.

Extending knowledge management across the supply chains in the construction industry : knowledge sharing in construction supply chains

Supply chain management and knowledge management have emerged as two distinct business philosophies in the last decade. Both are making rapid inroads into the construction industry. The premise of this paper is that knowledge management would make it possible for all the trading partners in a supply chain to reap benefits. Current research in knowledge management in the construction industry is generally targeting those big organisations that are main contractors. This has restricted the scope of knowledge management, and limits the benefits to a few, rather than the whole industry. If the construction industry as a whole is to prosper and improve its productivity, strategies for knowledge management strategy at the industry level must be established. This paper argues the case for extending the scope of knowledge management across the full extent of the supply chain, and attempts to identify the benefits that may arise out of sharing knowledge across the supply chain.

Investigating the role of ICT in improving productivity in construction supply chains in Australian construction industry.

The Australian construction industry is a fragmented and profoundly competitive industry with high levels of subcontracting resulting in complex supply chain formations. Traditional methods and forms of communication are being proven as inefficient and losing their charm while participants face heavy volumes of communications that often occurs on a daily basis between trading partners in a supply chain on projects. Information Communication Technologies (ICT), due to their robustness and the ability to quickly disseminate data/information, have the capacity to address highlighted communication issues in a structured and an efficient manner. Timesavings produced by these can be directly translated in terms of productivity gain. This paper presents perceptions of subcontractors working in the construction industry in Melbourne Australia on the use of ICT obtained through an exploratory study.