Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Genetics and the origin of bird species

External (environmental) factors affecting the speciation of birds are better known than the internal (genetic) factors. The opposite is true for several groups of invertebrates, Drosophila being the outstanding example. Ideas about the genetics of speciation in general trace back to Dobzhansky who worked with Drosophila. These ideas are an insufficient guide for reconstructing speciation in birds for two main reasons. First, speciation in birds proceeds with the evolution of behavioral barriers to interbreeding; postmating isolation usually evolves much later, perhaps after gene exchange has all but ceased. As a consequence of the slow evolution of postmating isolating factors the scope for reinforcement of premating isolation is small, whereas the opportunity for introgressive hybridization to influence the evolution of diverging species is large. Second, premating isolation may arise from nongenetic, cultural causes; isolation may be affected partly by song, a trait that is culturally inherited through an imprinting-like process in many, but not all, groups of birds. Thus the genetic basis to the origin of bird species is to be sought in the inheritance of adult traits that are subject to natural and sexual selection. Some of the factors involved in premating isolation (plumage, morphology, and behavior) are under single-gene control, most are under polygenic control. The genetic basis of the origin of postmating isolating factors affecting the early development of embryos (viability) and reproductive physiology (sterility) is almost completely unknown. Bird speciation is facilitated by small population size, involves few genetic changes, and occurs relatively rapidly.

Prokaryotes: The unseen majority

The number of prokaryotes and the total amount of their cellular carbon on earth are estimated to be 4–6 × 1030 cells and 350–550 Pg of C (1 Pg = 1015 g), respectively. Thus, the total amount of prokaryotic carbon is 60–100% of the estimated total carbon in plants, and inclusion of prokaryotic carbon in global models will almost double estimates of the amount of carbon stored in living organisms. In addition, the earth’s prokaryotes contain 85–130 Pg of N and 9–14 Pg of P, or about 10-fold more of these nutrients than do plants, and represent the largest pool of these nutrients in living organisms. Most of the earth’s prokaryotes occur in the open ocean, in soil, and in oceanic and terrestrial subsurfaces, where the numbers of cells are 1.2 × 1029, 2.6 × 1029, 3.5 × 1030, and 0.25–2.5 × 1030, respectively. The numbers of heterotrophic prokaryotes in the upper 200 m of the open ocean, the ocean below 200 m, and soil are consistent with average turnover times of 6–25 days, 0.8 yr, and 2.5 yr, respectively. Although subject to a great deal of uncertainty, the estimate for the average turnover time of prokaryotes in the subsurface is on the order of 1–2 × 103 yr. The cellular production rate for all prokaryotes on earth is estimated at 1.7 × 1030 cells/yr and is highest in the open ocean. The large population size and rapid growth of prokaryotes provides an enormous capacity for genetic diversity.

Accelerated evolution and Muller's rachet in endosymbiotic bacteria.

Many bacteria live only within animal cells and infect hosts through cytoplasmic inheritance. These endosymbiotic lineages show distinctive population structure, with small population size and effectively no recombination. As a result, endosymbionts are expected to accumulate mildly deleterious mutations. If these constitute a substantial proportion of new mutations, endosymbionts will show (i) faster sequence evolution and (ii) a possible shift in base composition reflecting mutational bias. Analyses of 16S rDNA of five independently derived endosymbiont clades show, in every case, faster evolution in endosymbionts than in free-living relatives. For aphid endosymbionts (genus Buchnera), coding genes exhibit accelerated evolution and unusually low ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous substitutions compared to ratios for the same genes for enterics. This concentration of the rate increase in nonsynonymous substitutions is expected under the hypothesis of increased fixation of deleterious mutations. Polypeptides for all Buchnera genes analyzed have accumulated amino acids with codon families rich in A+T, supporting the hypothesis that substitutions are deleterious in terms of polypeptide function. These observations are best explained as the result of Muller's ratchet within small asexual populations, combined with mutational bias. In light of this explanation, two observations reported earlier for Buchnera, the apparent loss of a repair gene and the overproduction of a chaperonin, may reflect compensatory evolution. An alternative hypothesis, involving selection on genomic base composition, is contradicted by the observation that the speedup is concentrated at nonsynonymous sites.

Genetic absolute dating based on microsatellites and the origin of modern humans.

We introduce a new genetic distance for microsatellite loci, incorporating features of the stepwise mutation model, and test its performance on microsatellite polymorphisms in humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas. We find that it performs well in determining the relations among the primates, but less well than other distance measures (not based on the stepwise mutation model) in determining the relations among closely related human populations. However, the deepest split in the human phylogeny seems to be accurately reconstructed by the new distance and separates African and non-African populations. The new distance is independent of population size and therefore allows direct estimation of divergence times if the mutation rate is known. Based on 30 microsatellite polymorphisms and a recently reported average mutation rate of 5.6 x 10(-4) at 15 dinucleotide microsatellites, we estimate that the deepest split in the human phylogeny occurred about 156,000 years ago. Unlike most previous estimates, ours requires no external calibration of the rate of molecular evolution. We can use such calibrations, however, to test our estimate.

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximumincreased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Ice rafted debris of sediment core MD95-2039

A deep-sea sediment core from the western Portuguese margin has provided a continuous, high-resolution record of millennial-scale climatic oscillations during the interval 9000-65,000 yr B.P. Pollen analysis of the same sequence allows direct, in situ assessment of the phase relationship between the North Atlantic climate system and vegetation changes on the adjacent landmass. This demonstrates for the first time that variability in NW Iberian tree population size closely tracked millennial-scale climate variability.

(Table T1) Total procaryotes, and living bacteria and archaea in black shales of ODP Leg 207 sites

Subseafloor sediments harbor over half of all prokaryotic cells on Earth (Whitman et al., 1998). This immense number is calculated from numerous microscopic acridine orange direct counts (AODCs) conducted on sediment cores drilled during the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) (Parkes et al., 1994, doi:10.1038/371410a0, 2000, doi:10.1007/PL00010971). Because these counts cannot differentiate between living and inactive or even dead cells (Kepner and Pratt, 1994; Morita, 1997), the population size of living microorganisms has recently been enumerated for ODP Leg 201 sediment samples from the equatorial Pacific and the Peru margin using ribosomal ribonucleic acid targeting catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) (Schippers et al., 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03302). A large fraction of the subseafloor prokaryotes were alive, even in very old (16 Ma) and deep (>400 m) sediments. In this study, black shale samples from the Demerara Rise (Erbacher, Mosher, Malone, et al., 2004, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.ir.207.2004) were analyzed using AODC and CARD-FISH to find out if black shales also harbor microorganisms.

(Table 2) Protein and fibre content of important food plants of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) in Adventdalen

Goose grazing on arctic tundra vegetation has shown both positive and negative effects on subsequent foraging conditions. To understand the potential of a density-dependent feedback on herbivore population size, the relation between grazing pressure and future foraging conditions is essential. We studied the effect of increasing grazing pressure of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on Spitsbergen. During the establishment of a breeding colony in the period 1992-2004, the proportion of graminoids decreased in the diet of wild geese, while the percentage of mosses increased. Grazing trials with captive geese in an unexploited area showed a similar shift in diet composition. High-quality food plants were depleted within years and over years. Intake rate declined too and as consequence, metabolisable energy intake rate (MEIR) decreased rapidly with increasing grazing pressure. During three successive years of experimental grazing, MEIR decreased at all levels of grazing pressure and declined below minimal energetic requirements when grazing exceeded natural levels of grazing pressure. This suggests that foraging conditions rapidly decline with increasing grazing pressure in these low-productive habitats. The potential for density-dependent feedbacks on local population increase is discussed.

Fertilization of branching Acropora

Acropora is one of the largest taxonomic groups of scleractinian corals in the Indo-Pacific and contributes towards the establishment of coral communities in the Ryukyu Islands. Branching Acropora populations have a component of asexual reproduction; however, this may lead to a decline in genetic diversity, leaving populations vulnerable to environmental changes. Therefore, a sufficient supply of larvae produced via sexual reproduction is necessary to maintain genetic diversity in the branching Acropora communities. Fertilization success in branching Acropora depends on a variety of factors, including genetic and environmental conditions. How genotype and/or genetic compatibility drives fertilization rates in Acropora communities under natural conditions has not been investigated. To investigate how genotype and/or genetic compatibility determine fertilization rates in Acropora communities over the long-term, cross-mating experiments with branching Acropora using the same colonies were conducted from 2006 to 2011 in an aquarium. Acropora from cultured and natural colonies collected from a reef (26° 40' 19.2'' N, 127° 52' 40.8'' E) were used. Fertilization rates showed less variation within the same crossing combinations, but large variation across years for the same genotypes of focal colonies. Results indicated that fertilization rate was highly variable depending on genotype compatibility with different mating partners. Additionally, simulations of fertilization rates with increasing population size revealed that small populations that had low genetic diversity (fewer than 10 genotypes) failed to fertilize. These results support the establishment or maintenance of source populations that facilitate sufficient genetic diversity of branching Acropora to enhance coral community restoration.

Floral structure, breeding system and fruit-set in the threatened sub-shrub Tetratheca juncea Smith (Tremandraceae)

Tetratheca juncea Smith (Tremandraceae) has undergone a range contraction of approx. 50 km in the last 100 years and is now listed as a vulnerable sub-shrub restricted to the central and north coast regions of New South Wales, Australia. There are approx. 250 populations in a 110 km north-south distribution and populations are usually small with fewer than 50 plants/clumps. The reproductive ecology of the species was studied to determine why seed-set is reportedly rare. Flowers are bisexual, odourless and nectarless. Flowers are presented dependentally and there are eight stamens recurved around the pistil. Anthers are poricidal, contain viable pollen and basally contain a deep-red tapetal fluid that is slightly oily. Thus flowers are presented for buzz pollinators, although none were observed at flowers during our study. The species was found to be facultatively xenogamous with only one in 50 glasshouse flowers setting seed autogamously, i.e. without pollinator assistance. Field studies revealed fertile fruit in 24 populations but production varied significantly across sites from exceedingly low (0.6 fruits per plant clump) to low (17 fruits per plant clump). Fruit-set ranged from 0 to 65%, suggesting that pollen vectors exist or that autogamy levels in the field are variable and higher than glasshouse results. Fruit production did not vary with population size, although in three of the five populations in the south-west region more than twice as much fruit was produced as in populations elsewhere. A moderately strong relationship between foliage volume and fruit : flower ratios suggests that bigger plants may be more attractive than smaller plants to pollinators. A review of Tetratheca pollination ecology revealed that several species are poorly fecund and pollinators are rare. The habitat requirements for Tetratheca, a genus of many rare and threatened species, is discussed. (C) 2003 Annals of Botany Company.

Factors affecting the success of translocations of the black-faced impala in Namibia

This study analysed 21 translocations of the vulnerable black-faced impala (Aepyceros melampus petersi) to 20 Namibian game farms that occurred between 1970 and 2001, seeking characteristics of the translocated populations and the release sites that significantly correlated with the success of the translocations. Characteristics considered were: initial population size; presence of cheetah and leopard; area; habitat type; occurrence within the historical range of the subspecies and occurrence of trophy hunting. Success of translocations was described by whether the population had a positive growth rate. The success rate of translocations of black-faced impala (62%) was higher than shown in other studies of vertebrate translocations. Initial population size was paramount to the success of translocations. Releases of larger populations were more likely to lead to positive population growth rates than were releases of small populations. The presence of cheetah also influenced the success of translocated populations. In the presence of cheetah, small populations translocated to game farms were significantly less likely to be viable than larger populations. Recommendations for the management of this vulnerable antelope include introducing large initial populations, ideally more than 15 animals, rather than attempting to eliminate cheetah following translocations of impala. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework of lessons learned from community-based marine reserves and its effectiveness in guiding a new coastal management initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion. These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.