A new approach for multi-agent coalition formation and management in the scope of electricity markets

This paper presents a new methodology for the creation and management of coalitions in Electricity Markets. This approach is tested using the multi-agent market simulator MASCEM, taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate VPP (Virtual Power Producers). VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market, and internally, with their members, in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself. The new features include the development of particular individual facilitators to manage the communications amongst the members of each coalition independently from the rest of the simulation, and also the mechanisms for the classification of the agents that are candidates to join the coalition. In addition, a global study on the results of the Iberian Electricity Market is performed, to compare and analyze different approaches for defining consistent and adequate strategies to integrate into the agents of MASCEM. This, combined with the application of learning and prediction techniques provide the agents with the ability to learn and adapt themselves, by adjusting their actions to the continued evolving states of the world they are playing in.

Simulation of a-Si PV system linked to the grid by DC boost and three-level inverter under cloud scope

This paper is about a PV system linked to the electric grid through power converters under cloud scope. The PV system is modeled by the five parameters equivalent circuit and a MPPT procedure is integrated into the modeling. The modeling for the converters models the association of a DC-DC boost with a three-level inverter. PI controllers are used with PWM by sliding mode control associated with space vector modulation controlling the booster and the inverter. A case study addresses a simulation to assess the performance of a PV system linked to the electric grid. Conclusions regarding the integration of the PV system into the electric grid are presented. © IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2015.

Simulation of offshore wind system with three-level converters: HVDC power transmission in cloud scope

This paper is on a simulation for offshore wind systems in deep water under cloud scope. The system is equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator and a full-power three-level converter, converting the electric energy at variable frequency in one at constant frequency. The control strategies for the three-level are based on proportional integral controllers. The electric energy is injected through a HVDC transmission submarine cable into the grid. The drive train is modeled by a three-mass model taking into account the resistant stiffness torque, structure and tower in the deep water due to the moving surface elevation. Conclusions are taken on the influence of the moving surface on the energy conversion. © IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2015.

A Fractional Perspective to the Bond Graph Modelling of World Economies

Inspired in dynamic systems theory and Brewer’s contributions to apply it to economics, this paper establishes a bond graph model. Two main variables, a set of inter-connectivities based on nodes and links (bonds) and a fractional order dynamical perspective, prove to be a good macro-economic representation of countries’ potential performance in nowadays globalization. The estimations based on time series for 50 countries throughout the last 50 decades confirm the accuracy of the model and the importance of scale for economic performance.

The ethical dilemma of expatriates in emerging economies: A liminal perspective

Adjustment to emerging economies is benefited if Western expatriates recognise they are experiencing a liminal situation, which can lead to the instrumental utilisation of coping strategies as equivalent to rites of passage between distinct ethical frameworks. Given the characteristics ascribed to rites, the ethical dilemma resulting from the simultaneous demand to abide by local rules and to respect Western ethical principles is more easily solved. Consequently, effective and sustainable adjustment is favoured. Implications for organisations and individuals are discussed.

The burden of chronic low back pain in the adult Portuguese population : an epidemiological population-based study under the scope of Epireumapt

RESUMO: Nos países desenvolvidos a lombalgia é a condição músculo-­‐esquelética mais prevalente. Quando evolui para um quadro crónico é responsável por um encargo económico bastante considerável, não só em relação aos indivíduos, mas também para a sociedade. A lombalgia crónica é por isso uma das principais causas de perda de produtividade e de perda de independência económica, nomeadamente através do absenteísmo (ausência do trabalho), do presenteísmo (perda de produtividade no trabalho, devido à capacidade diminuída provocada pela lombalgia) e da incapacidade para trabalhar (invalidez permanente, total ou parcial). Até à data, em Portugal, a prevalência e carga social da lombalgia crónica eram desconhecidas. Até agora não existiam estudos populacionais de grande dimensão sobre este tema. O objetivo principal desta tese foi determinar a prevalência de lombalgia crónica, e também avaliar a carga social que esta tem na população adulta Portuguesa. O trabalho de investigação foi desenvolvido no âmbito do Estudo Epidemiológico de Doenças Reumáticas em Portugal (EpiReumaPt). Este foi o primeiro estudo de larga escala e de base populacional, que determinou a prevalência de doenças reumáticas e músculo-­‐ esqueléticas na população adulta portuguesa. Foi realizado numa amostra aleatória e representativa, de 10.661 indivíduos do Continente, da Região Autónoma dos Açores e da Região Autónoma da Madeira, entre Setembro de 2011 e Dezembro de 2013. Esta tese foi dividida em duas secções. A primeira secção incluiu o detalhe das questões relativas ao desenvolvimento e gestão do EpiReumaPt, constituindo-­‐se como um guia prático sobre como realizar um estudo de base populacional de larga escala, em Portugal. A metodologia detalhada do EpiReumaPt foi também descrita nesta secção e incluiu os objectivos, o desenho do estudo, as características de recrutamento e a preparação de dados para análise. Nesta secção foram ainda descritos os principais resultados do EpiReumaPt. Estes evidenciaram que a lombalgia foi a condição músculo-­‐esquelética com maior prevalência na população adulta portuguesa.A segunda secção desta tese estimou a prevalência da lombalgia crónica ativa na população adulta Portuguesa, e avaliou a carga social esta condição. A lombalgia ativa foi definida com base na dor auto-­‐relatada no dia da entrevista e que persistia há pelo menos 90 dias (independentemente da causa). A lombalgia foi definida como dor na área definida entre a margem inferior das décimas segundas costelas até às pregas glúteas inferiores, com ou sem dor nos membros inferiores. A carga social foi medida tendo em conta os seguintes parâmetros: qualidade de vida, função, consumo de recursos de saúde, consumo de analgésicos e outros fármacos usados no alívio da dor, sintomas de ansiedade e sintomas de depressão. Os resultados mostraram que o consumo de recursos em saúde e a carga social da lombalgia crónica na população adulta Português é significativa. Também a incapacidade causada pela lombalgia crónica,nos indivíduos com idade ativa, é responsável por elevadas taxas de absenteísmo e má qualidade de vida, aos quais acresce o consequente ónus socioeconómico. Esta tese também concluiu que o consumo de analgésicos e outros medicamentos para alívio da dor, na população adulta portuguesa com lombalgia crónica ativa, é relativamente baixa. A maioria destes indivíduos não tomava nenhum medicamento analgésico, independentemente da intensidade da dor. Mesmo os indivíduos que reportaram dor intensa, apenas 4.0% estavam no primeiro degrau da escada analgésica da Organização Mundial de Saúde; 2.3% usavam opióides fracos e 0.03% usavam opióides fortes para controlar a dor (segundo e terceiro degrau da escada analgésica da Organização Mundial da Saúde). O trabalho de investigação também confirmou que a prevalência de sintomas de ansiedade e depressão entre os indivíduos adultos portugueses com lombalgia crónica ativa é elevada. Nestes indivíduos, registou-­‐se um consumo mais elevado de analgésicos e outros medicamentos para alívio da dor, quando comparados com os indivíduos com lombalgia crónica activa sem esses sintomas psicológicos. Os grupos terapêuticos mais utilizados foram os ansiolíticos, sedativos e hipnóticos, os antidepressivos e os anti-­‐inflamatórios não esteróides. A intensidade média da dor reportada foi também maior entre os indivíduos com lombalgia ativa e sintomas de ansiedade e/ou depressão. Também nestes, foi reportada pior função e pior estado de saúde. Em relação ao consumo de recursos de saúde foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre as duas populações: os indivíduos com lombalgia ativa e sintomas psicológicos concomitantes registaram maior número de consultas de psiquiatria de outras especialidades médicas, assim como precisaram de mais apoio domiciliário nos 12 meses prévios à entrevista do EpiReumaPt. Foram também identificados os fatores associados a sintomas isolados de ansiedade, a sintomas isolados de depressão e a sintomas de ansiedade e depressão. Resumindo,esta tese permitiu concluir que a lombalgia crónica é um problema de saúde comum na população adulta portuguesa, contribuindo para um elevado grau de incapacidade e que consequentemente afeta o desempenho laboral e o bem-­‐estar dos indivíduos. A lombalgia crónica é também responsável por um consumo considerável de recursos de saúde. Acresce ainda que os sintomas de ansiedade e depressão são comuns, entre os indivíduos com lombalgia crónica, contribuindo com uma carga social adicional.---------------------------------- ABSTRACT:Low Back Pain(LBP) is the most prevalent of musculoskeletal condition in developed countries.When it becomes chronic, LBP causesan enormous economic burden on individuals and society -­‐ it is one of the leading causes of loss of productivity and economic independence through absenteeism (time off work), presenteeism (lost productivity because of diminished capacity while at work) and work disability (permanent, partial or complete disablement for work purposes). In Portugal the prevalence and burden of LBP and chronic LBP (CLBP) were poorly defined. Until now no large population-­‐based studies have focused on this. The main aim of this thesis was to determine the prevalence of LBP and CLBP, and also to assess the burden of CLBP in the adult rtuguese population. The research work was developed under the scope of EpiReumaPt (the Portuguese Epidemiologic Study of Rheumatic Diseases). EpiReumaPt was the first national large population-­‐based and prevalence study of rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMD). It was performed among a randomized and representative sample of 10,661 adult Portuguese subjects recruited in Mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands, from September 2011 to December 2013. The first section of this thesis included detailed issues regarding the development and management of EpiReumaPt, and provided a practical guide on how to set-­‐up a large population-­‐based study in Portugal. The detailed methodology of EpiReumaPt, including its objectives,study design,recruitment features,and data preparation for analyses were also described. The main results from EpiReumaPt study were provided in this section and showed that LBP was the musculoskeletal condition with highest prevalence among Portuguese population. The second section of this thesis estimated the prevalence of active CLBP among adult Portuguese population, and assessed the social burden of this condition. Active CLBP was defined based on self-­‐reported pain on the day of the interview, and for most of the time for at least 90 days (independently from cause). LBP was defined as pain in the back area from the lower margin of the twelfth ribs to he lower gluteal folds, with or without pain referred to the lower limbs. Social burden was measured taking into account the following outcomes: quality of life, function, healthcare resources consumption, analgesic and other pain relief drugs intake, anxiety and depression symptoms. Results showed that the healthcare consumption and social burden of CLBP among adult Portuguese population were enormous, and the disability caused by CLBP among subjects in a working age provides high rates of absenteeism (work loss) and poor quality of life, with a consequent socioeconomic burden. This thesis also concluded that analgesic and other pain relief drugs untake among adult Portuguese population with active CLBP was very low. Most of the subjects with active CLBP did not take any analgesic drug regardless pain severity. Even when subjects self-­‐reported severe pain, only 24.0% were in the 1st step of the analgesic ladder,2.3% used weak analgesic opioids and 0.03% used strong opioids (2nd and 3rd step of WHO analgesic ladder, respectively) to control pain . The research work also confirmed that the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms among adult Portuguese subjects with active CLBP was high. Regarding pharmacological therapy, the intake of analgesic and other pain relief drugs was higher among subjects with anxiety and/or depression symptoms, when compared with subjects without these psychological symptoms. Anxiolytics, sedatives and hypnotics, antidepressants and NSAIDs intake had higher usage rates among these subjects. The pain severity mean was also higher among this subjects and function and health status was worse. Regarding healthcare resources consumption,significant differences between the two populations were found. Subjects with ctive CLBP and concomitant psychological symptoms had a higher number of psychiatrist and other physician visits. They also needed more home care in the previous 12 months. Factors associated with isolated symptoms of anxiety, depression,and concomitant anxiety and depression symptoms were also identified. Summarizing, we concluded that CLBP is a common health problem among adult Portuguese population contributing to disability and affecting labor performance, and the well being of subjects. it is also responsible for considerable healthcare resource consumption. Anxiety and depression symptoms are common among subjects with CLBP and provided an additional burden among them.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

El impacto de las transferencias fiscales sobre las economías regionales. The impact of fiscal transfers on regional economies.

Uno de los problemas que es más debatido a nivel país resulta ser todo lo que atañe a la balanza de pagos. Sin embargo, lamentablemente esta preocupación se abandona cuando bajamos a los niveles provinciales. El problema en concreto surge a nivel provincial como consecuencia de que efectivamente, en el largo plazo, la Balanza de Pagos Regional (BPR) debe estar equilibrada, por lo que en los casos en que las provincias atraviesen por una situación de déficit crónicos (que revelan desequilibrios), tal situación se cubre con capitales extraprovinciales. Como es consenso, para salvar esos déficit crónicos las economías deben alcanzar un estadio de crecimiento autogenerado (es decir, financiado con su propio ahorro), que permita un nivel suficiente de PBG, y para ello deberá operar un "proceso de convergencia" respecto a las áreas más desarrolladas. Sin embargo, los estudios demuestran que no se observa tal proceso de convergencia en las provincias argentinas. Surge la pregunta de por qué no ha operado esa convergencia que equilibre económicamente el mapa espacial de nuestra economía (aproximando los niveles de ingreso por habitante, y superando la Restricción Externa Regional).Una probable respuesta a esta falta de convergencia está en la presencia de las transferencias interjurisdiccionales desde las provincias más ricas a las más pobres. En Argentina, esto ha ocurrido históricamente a través del régimen de coparticipación (el cual permite al gobierno nacional redistribuir recursos entre provincias). Pero lo paradójico es que este flujo podría resultar en verdad un factor de estancamiento, vía la "enfermedad holandesa". Precisamente, un interrogante a dilucidar que pretende explorar esta investigación es la posibilidad de que la existencia de un sistema de transferencias fiscales, fuertemente redistributivo (tal como funciona en Argentina) genere un fenómeno tipo enfermedad holandesa en las jurisdicciones subnacionales, deteriorando las posibilidades de crecimiento en las provincias más beneficiadas por el reparto de la renta fiscal nacional.

Democracia Deliberativa en Córdoba: análisis de los alcances y limitaciones de algunas experiencias participativas, contribuciones para su factibilidad. Deliberative Democracy in Córdoba: scope and limitations of participatory experiences.

En el debate académico y social los críticos de la democracia deliberativa coinciden en sostener la imposibilidad de realización de este ideal, fundamentando dicha afirmación en hechos sociales relevantes como el pluralismo, la desigualdad, la complejidad, poderosas instituciones y una esfera pública polarizada en extremo. En atención a las mencionadas críticas algunos autores han destacado que la viabilidad de una forma deliberativa de democracia depende de la creación de condiciones sociales y arreglos institucionales que propicien el uso público de la razón. La deliberación es pública en la medida en que estos arreglos permitan el diálogo abierto entre ciudadanos capaces de formular juicios informados y razonados en torno a las formas de resolver situaciones problemáticas. La factibilidad y eficacia de la deliberación pública reside, a su vez, en la posibilidad de sostener no sólo un diálogo abierto y continuo entre ciudadanos, sino también de éstos con las instituciones políticas. En esta discusión se inserta el presente proyecto con el fin de estudiar los problemas de justificación e institucionalización, como así también los obstáculos y constreñimientos empíricos con los que se enfrenta la democracia deliberativa. Para ello se toman diversas experiencias en la Provincia de Córdoba: El Acta de Compromiso Público de la Ciudad de Córdoba, Los Observatorios de Servicios Públicos de la Asociación Civil el Ágora, Concertación en Espacios Locales de la Asociación Civil el Ágora y las Juntas de Participación Vecinal de la Municipalidad de Córdoba. Todos estos procesos se caracterizan por constituir iniciativas que procuran la creación, fortalecimiento e institucionalización de espacios de participación ciudadana y de interacción dialógica de los ciudadanos entre sí y de éstos con el estado. Estos espacios son espacios situados y, en cuanto tales, implican contigencias devenidas de las particularidades territoriales, temáticas y de los diferentes horizontes temporales sobre los que se proponen actuar. El proyecto se propone analizar los alcances y dificultades (políticas, sociales, organizativas, informacionales) que se presentan en estas experiencias deliberativas, atendiendo tanto a los requisitos de factibilidad de las propias experiencias como a la necesidad de fortalecer los planteamientos teóricos de la teoría de la deliberación pública a partir de la consideración de los problemas empíricos con los que la misma se enfrenta. Se prevé el desarrollo e implementación de indicadores de seguimiento y monitoreo de las experiencias que den cuenta de las dimensiones y presupuestos de la democracia deliberativa, la construcción de modelos procedimentales y tecnologías comunicativas que contribuyan a la factibilidad de los presupuestos comunicativos y la contribuición al desarrollo de proposiciones teóricas vinculadas con la preocupación académica referida a los procesos deliberativos y participativos en las sociedades contemporáneas.

Ciclos económicos en economías abiertas y menos desarrolladas: el papel de los "shocks" en los términos de intercambio.The business cycle in open and less developed economies: the rol of terms-of-trade shocks.

Nuestra preocupación reside en estudiar empíricamente el mecanismo de transmisión internacional de ciclos económicos a economías pequeñas y menos desarrolladas (LDC), evaluando el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en países dónde existen imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio que imponen severas restricciones en el financiamiento de la inversión doméstica y al crecimiento económico. Primero, analizamos si la cuenta corriente responde de manera asimétrica a movimientos de largo plazo en los términos de intercambio. La hipótesis es que “en los buenos tiempos” cuando se produce una mejora permanente en términos de intercambio (y con ello el nivel de ingreso) los individuos no elevan su consumo en un monto acorde con la mejora de su ingreso (permanente) sino que ahorran una fracción del aumento en su dotación para hacer frente a una reversión en la mejora en los términos de intercambios (aunque ésta sea transitoria) en el futuro. En consecuencia, la cuenta corriente (diferencia entre ingreso y absorción) responde de manera positiva a un shock permanente en los términos de intercambio, ya que el individuo ahorra de manera cautelosa –debido a que sabe que no le prestarán para suavizar consumo - aún suponiendo que en el futuro tendrá una reversión transitoria de su ingreso. Segundo, estudiamos la relación dinámica entre los términos de intercambio y la tasa de interés en la economía pequeña abierta y con imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio (información asimétrica). La hipótesis es que la economía doméstica tiene que soportar una prima de riesgo que eleva el costo de la inversión y retarda el crecimiento (Gertler y Rogoff; 1990). Esta prima de riesgo depende, además, en forma negativa del nivel del colateral que tenga la economía. El colateral es la dotación de recursos naturales, por ejemplo, que la economía posee a los fines garantizar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones contraídas (en el modelo presentado las actividades dónde se invierten son independientes del colateral). La hipótesis establecida indica que los cambios en los términos de intercambio generan un aumento del colateral de la economía y una reducción del riesgo país: aumentos en los términos de intercambio reducen la prima de riesgo de la economía que opera en mercados de capitales con asimetrías de información, y como consecuencia aumentarían los ingresos de capitales. De esta forma, se estaría encontrando una explicación a la denominada “Paradoja de Lucas”. Finalmente, el proyecto estudia la conexión entre dos variables “clave” en la economía de los países emergentes: la relación entre los términos de intercambio y el tipo de cambio real. Argumentamos que los efectos de las mejoras de los términos de intercambio sobre los flujos de capitales externos tienden a ser sobreestimadas si no se consideran los efectos “secundarios” de éstas sobre el tipo de cambio real de la economía pequeña menos desarrollada. En este proyecto se controlan estadísticamente esta relación. La estrategia empírica elegida resulta en aplicar a un panel (constituido por dieciocho países de Latinoamérica) el método generalizado de momentos (GMM) a dos modelos de regresión estadística a los fines de abordar de manera eficiente el problema de la endogeneidad de la variable dependiente que actúa como regresor rezagado. La estrategia de estimación elegida enfatiza el análisis de la relación dinámica de las variables económicas incluidas en el análisis. The paper analyzes the general problem related to the transmission of economic cycles to Small Open Economies. The analysis focuses on terms-of-trade shocks, which are considered one of the major sources of income volatility in developing economies. Specifically, we tackle the problem related to the impact of terms-of-trade shocks in Less Developed SOEs. ‘Less Developed SOEs’ are understood as those countries who have borrowing constraints. First, we put to a test the hypothesis of asymmetric response of current account to terms-of-trade shocks (the impact of the shock on current account differs depending whether it is positive or negative), which originates from considering binding restrictions in international capital markets (Agénor and Aizenman; 2004). Second, we investigate about the main determinants of External Capital Flows (ECF) directed to Developing Countries. We put to a test the Gertler and Rogoff (1990) hypothesis that a “risky rate” arises in that markets because the economy has not sufficient amount of wealth to “collateralize” the capital she needs to borrow to take advantage of the investment opportunities she has and additionally because the lender does not have the chance of observing what the borrowed does with the funds (that is information asymmetry arises because the lender can check the realized output of investment but he can not observe if he really invest in the project or secretly lend abroad). Finally, Following Prasad, E. S., Rajan and R. Subramanian, A (2007) we measure the relationship between external capital flows and domestic currency overvaluation. We run a panel GMM estimation for a set of 18 Latin American Countries during the period 1973-2008.

The spatial effect of intra-metropolitan agglomeration economies

This study deals with the role of spatial accessibility to agglomeration economies in the change in spatial structure of industrial employment for the case of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (BMR). Using the growth in gross density of municipal employment between 1986 and 1996 for seven manufacturing industries as an indicator of changes in the spatial structure of employment, an exploration is made of the spatial impact of agglomeration economies operating on a local scale the municipality and three areas 5, 8 and 12 kilometres away surrounding the municipality itself - , agglomeration economies emerging from CBD and the main specialised subcentres in the region, and the network economies associated with the total jobs in the region, access to which depends on the distance from the main transport infrastructures