How private is private information? The ability to spot deception in an economic game

We provide experimental evidence on the ability to detect deceit in a buyer-seller game with asymmetric information. Sellers have private information about the buyer's valuation of a good and sometimes have incentives to mislead buyers. We examine if buyers can spot deception in face-to-face encounters. We vary (1) whether or not the buyer can interrogate the seller, and (2) the contextual richness of the situation. We find that the buyers' prediction accuracy is above chance levels, and that interrogation and contextual richness are important factors determining the accuracy. These results show that there are circumstances in which part of the information asymmetry is eliminated by people's ability to spot deception.

Effects of stress on economic decision-making: Evidence from laboratory experiments

The ways in which preferences respond to the varying stress of economic environments is a key question for behavioral economics and public policy. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate the effects of stress on financial decision making among individuals aged 50 and older. Using the cold pressor task as a physiological stressor, and a series of intelligence tests as cognitive stressors, we find that stress increases subjective discounting rates, has no effect on the degree of risk-aversion, and substantially lowers the effort individuals make to learn about financial decisions.

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increase of pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the assumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to wild pollinators, but we show that their introduction can lead to further decline and finally local extinction of wild bees. The transitions between different outcomes are characterised by threshold behaviour and are potentially difficult to predict and detect in advance. Small changes in economic (input prices) and ecological (wild bees carrying capacity and effect of pesticides on bees) can move the economic-ecological system beyond the extinction threshold. We also show that increasing the pesticide price or decreasing the commercial bee price might lead to reestablishment of wild bees following their local extinction. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of combining ecological modelling with economics to study the provision of ecosystem services and to inform sustainable management of ecosystem service providers.

The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

Secondary contact zones and hybridizations: the case of the lesser white-toothed shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group, Soricidae)

In the present study, we analyzed 58 samples of the lesser white-toothed shrew group (Crocidura suaveolens) from eastern Europe and Turkey, where, according to previous publications, three different mitochondrial and nuclear lineages are present. We sequenced 799 bp of the nuclear BRCA1 gene and 400 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to: (1) determine a potential contact zone between the lineages; (2) detect hybridizations and introgressions between them; and (3) comment on the level of reproductive isolation of the different lineages. We revealed two zones of hybridization in Turkey, of which the first occurred west of the Bosphorus Straits (three hybrids) and the second in Anatolia (twelve hybrids). In the latter, the nuclear markers revealed a large zone of hybridization, of approximately 600 km. It also revealed that hybrids of first, second, and later generations are present within the populations, and therefore that the reproductive isolation between the different lineages is weak.

Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among commonly applied labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market.

Adquisició d'imatges en infraroig proper de baixa alçària sobre zones d'interès al Montseny (I)

En aquest informe, fem una primera avaluació d'un sistema basat en un mini-UAV, operat per l'empresa CATUAV (www.catuav.com), sobre una zona a l'est del Parc Natural del Montseny (PNM) tot comparant amb imatges adquirides l'any anterior sobre la mateixa zona, amb sistemes i plataformes aèries de primer nivell per l'Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya i que utilitzem com a referent de qualitat. Tot assumint que les imatges produïdes pels UAV són d'una qualitat inferior als sistemes convencionals de teledetecció aerotransportada, si la qualitat i operativitat són encara suficients, aquests sistemes, donat el seu cost, poden constituir una eina important per adquirir informació d'alta resolució pel control de l'evolució de camps abandonats, de l'estat de la vegetació de ribera, de l'estat fitosanitari de cobertes forestals i plagues, de la distribució d'espècies invasores, de les conseqüències d'actuacions de restauració o aclariment del bosc, de l'impacte dels visitants etc. En concret, en aquest informe avaluem el sistema de CATUAV pel que fa a: 1) Operativitat del vol i adquisició de les imatges sobre una zona prèviament assenyalada com objectiu; 2) Operativitat del producte en quant a la localització i orientació de les imatges sobre el terreny; i 3) Qualitat radiomètrica i geomètrica de les imatges.

The Delta of Ebro: economic uses and changes in the ecosystems

El Delta del Ebro se halla situado en el Mediterráneo, en NE de la Península Ibérica (sur de Cataluña). Su formación ha sido resultado de la interacción del mar y del Ebro, un río que con sus 910 km de longitud drena una cuenca de unos 85.362 km2. Sus características dependen de los diferentes regímenes climáticos de su extensa cuenca, lo que explica la complejidad de su régimen. A lo largo del periodo estudiado el Delta fue siempre una realidad geológica aunque experimentó importantes cambios en su morfología. En consecuencia, sus recursos naturales siempre pudieron ser explotados, aunque estas actividades se hubieron de adaptar a su cambiante morfología y a sus peculiares condiciones naturales, diferentes de las zonas terrestres más inmediatas.

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Potencial d'aprofitament de recursos pluvials en zones urbanes al barri La Plana - Santa Bàrbara - Vallpineda del municipi de Sitges

Aquest estudi es centra en l’anàlisi de l’aprofitament d’aigües pluvials en sistemes urbans, concretament al barri de LaPlana - Sta. Bàrbara - Vallpineda de Sitges, en base als escenaris proposats que contemplen diferents criteris i paràmetres. La metodologia utilitzada que conjuga els resultats potencials de l’oferta amb els de la demanda d’aigua al barri permet la determinació del nivell d’autosuficiència hídrica del sistema. Els resultats mostren una alta autosuficiència del 90% en quant es s’apliquen estratègies de gestió hídrica ecoeficients i mesures domèstiques per a reduir la demanda domèstica del sector. A més, la tipologia de coberta inclinada i un major règim pluviomètric anual, s’ha observat afavoreixen l’augment d’aquest índex. Per tant, es considera apropiat realitzar un eficient aprofitament de l’aigua de pluja, com a recurs endogen local, donats els beneficis econòmics, ambientals i socials que comporta en una situació de dèficit hídric com la del municipi de Sitges.

Complex landslide behaviour and structural controlled by the structures: A 3D conceptual model example of Åknes rockslide, Norway

Åknes is an active complex large rockslide of approximately 30?40 Mm3 located within the Proterozoic gneisses of western Norway. The observed surface displacements indicate that this rockslide is divided into several blocks moving in different directions at velocities of between 3 and 10 cm year?1. Because of regional safety issues and economic interests this rockslide has been extensively monitored since 2004. The understanding of the deformation mechanism is crucial for the implementation of a viable monitoring system. Detailed field investigations and the analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) indicate that the movements and the block geometry are controlled by the main schistosity (S1) in gneisses, folds, joints and regional faults. Such complex slope deformations use pre-existing structures, but also result in new failure surfaces and deformation zones, like preferential rupture in fold-hinge zones. Our interpretation provides a consistent conceptual three-dimensional (3D) model for the movements measured by various methods that is crucial for numerical stability modelling. In addition, this reinterpretation of the morphology confirms that in the past several rockslides occurred from the Åknes slope. They may be related to scars propagating along the vertical foliation in folds hinges. Finally, a model of the evolution of the Åknes slope is presented.

Repeated unidirectional introgression towards Populus balsamifera in contact zones of exotic and native poplars.

As the evolutionary significance of hybridization is largely dictated by its extent beyond the first generation, we broadly surveyed patterns of introgression across a sympatric zone of two native poplars (Populus balsamifera, Populus deltoides) in Quebec, Canada within which European exotic Populus nigra and its hybrids have been extensively planted since the 1800s. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that appeared fixed within each species were characterized by DNA-sequencing pools of pure individuals. Thirty-five of these diagnostic SNPs were employed in a high-throughput assay that genotyped 635 trees of different age classes, sampled from 15 sites with various degrees of anthropogenic disturbance. The degree of admixture within sampled trees was then assessed through Bayesian clustering of genotypes. Hybrids were present in seven of the populations, with 2.4% of all sampled trees showing spontaneous admixture. Sites with hybrids were significantly more disturbed than pure stands, while hybrids comprised both immature juveniles and trees of reproductive age. All three possible F1s were detected. Advanced-generation hybrids were consistently biased towards P. balsamifera regardless of whether hybridization had occurred with P. deltoides or P. nigra. Gene exchange between P. deltoides and P. nigra was not detected beyond the F1 generation; however, detection of a trihybrid demonstrates that even this apparent reproductive isolation does not necessarily result in an evolutionary dead end. Collectively, results demonstrate the natural fertility of hybrid poplars and suggest that introduced genes could potentially affect the genetic integrity of native trees, similar to that arising from introgression between natives.

Perceptions of Europe in political and economic elites: a geographical compared analysis of Germany, Spain and Poland

Elite perceptions about Europe are a very important point in order to understand the current European integration process, as well as the future perspectives for the continent. This study makes a comparison between the perceptions which political and economical elites in some European countries have about the European Union process and its mechanisms. The main goal is to identify the differences in positions of each type of elites, as well as the variations among three key countries. The database built thanks to the INTUNE (Integrated and United? A quest for Citizenship in an ¨ever closer Europe¨) Project Survey on European Elites and Masses, funded by the Sixth Framework Programme of the EU [Contract CIT 3-CT-2005-513421] have being used. The questionnaire was applied between February and May 2007, in a total of 18 European countries. The national teams got a total of almost 2000 valid responses at European level. In the analysis we have showed some general descriptive statistics about the perception of Europe taking as a reference two dimensions of the INTUNE project: identity (attachment to the national level, the meaning of being a truly national, and the threats from Turkey that EU is facing at this moment) and representation (trust in European and national institutions, preferences for a national or an European army). The results are presented distinguishing between political (national MP’s in low chambers) and economical elites (presidents of corporations, general managers…) and, at the same time, among three countries: Germany as an original member of the European Union; Spain, incorporated in 1986; and a new member, Poland, joining the EU in 2004.

New approaches to social and economic research on schistosomiasis in TDR

This paper describes new approaches to social and economic research being developed by the Social and Economic Research component of the Special Programme for Research and Trainning in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization. One of these is a study to acess the possibility of identifying high risk communities for urinary schistosomiasis through a "mailed"questionaire approach distributed through an existing administrative system, thereby eliminating the need for face-to-face interviews by the research or disease control team. This approach, developed by the Swiss Tropical Institute in Ifakara, Tanzania, i s currently being tested in seven other African countries. The paper also describes a change of emphasis of economic research on schistosomiasis, focusing on the intra-household effects of the disease on rural households, rather than, as previously done, studying the impact of the disease on the productivity of individual wage labourers. Other priorities involve the identification of epidemiological information neede for improoved decision-making regarding acceptable treatment strategies in endemic areas with limited financial capacity, as well as research on how the adverse effects of economic development projects can be alleviated.

Venezuelan economic laboratory. The Case of the altruistic economy of Felipe Pérez Martí

Felipe Pérez Martí, who was the Venezuelan Minister of Planning and Development in the government of Hugo Chávez, proposes an economic model that he calls the altruistic economy or fourth way, which leads cooperative game theory to its logical extremes postulating a pure communism. Here we sustain that, first, it is impossible in the model of Pérez Martí to marginally allocate non-primary goods to those most in need or who most value them, facing a problem of defective economic calculation, and second, in order to achieve equality, he would have to replace his atomic local planners by a central planner, who would be unable to overcome the problem of imperfect and and incomplete information.